Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications DETEC

Federal Office for Spatial Development, AREp p ,

Land use modelling SwissLand use modelling – Swiss spatial planning perspective p p g p pand requirements

SustainCity Conference 17 04 2013SustainCity Conference 17.04.2013

Dr. Maria LezziDirector ARE

Contents

1 The Swiss context1. The Swiss context2. Studies on how land use and transport interact:

the pastp3. What we want and need land use modelling to do:

the future

2SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

1 The Swiss context1. The Swiss context2. Studies on how land use and transport interact:

the pastp3. What we want and need land use modelling to do:

the future

3SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

The ARE

The Federal Office for Spatial Development ARE isThe Federal Office for Spatial Development, ARE, is the federal government's centre of expertise

- on issues concerning spatial development- on transport policyo t a spo t po cy- and on sustainable development

→coordinated spatial and transport planning→coordinated spatial and transport planning→coordination between different modes of transport

4SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

Planning at the national level

The ARE is primarily concerned with national issuesThe ARE is primarily concerned with national issues

- such as the tripartite strategy and continuedsuch as the tripartite strategy and continued evolution of the Spatial Strategy for Switzerland, and

- drawing up the federal government's sectoral plans.d a g up t e ede a go e e t s secto a p a s

5SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

Planning at the cantonal/regional level

However the ARE is also concerned withHowever, the ARE is also concerned with - reviewing regional plans - reviewing agglomeration plansreviewing agglomeration plans

6SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

Political challenges (1)

• Revision of the Spatial Planning ActRevision of the Spatial Planning Act (Raumplanungsgesetz)

followed by the issues of building zoning, denser y g g,urban development, and containing urban sprawl

→ Impact on land use patterns, land pricesand locational appeal?

7SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

Political challenges (2)

• Long-term financing for transport infrastructures (railLong term financing for transport infrastructures (rail, roads, agglomeration traffic)

• Expansion of railway infrastructure p y• Completion of and relief measures for the national

highway network

→ Impact on land use patterns, land pricesp p pand locational appeal?

8SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

1 The Swiss context1. The Swiss context2. Studies on how land use and transport interact:

the pastp3. What we want and need land use modelling to do:

the future

9SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

Coordinated spatial and transport planning

International context

Society Economy Environment

Space and transport Demand for transportDemand for space

Supply of transportSupply of spaceLocational appeal

Impact

10SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

The DETEC transport model

The ARE employs a bimodal four-level state-of-the-artThe ARE employs a bimodal, four level, state of the art transport model developed by the Federal Institute of Technology, ETH

Analyses of: - changes in traffic flows as a result of infrastructure

measures

- changes in traffic volumes as a result of changing land use patterns

11SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

The DETEC transport model: i t ti ithi S i t itinteraction within Swiss territory (agglomerations, motorised private transport)

Passenger journeys between Swiss agglomerations using motorised private transport

Passenger journeys, average workday traffic

12SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

The DETEC transport model: i t ti ithi S i t itinteraction within Swiss territory (agglomerations, public transport)

Passenger journeys between Swiss agglomerations using public transport

Passenger journeys, average workday traffic

13SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

The DETEC transport model: journey times ith t i d i t t t t f thwith motorised private transport to one of the

five principal cities, 2005

14SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

The DETEC transport model: journey times ith bli t t t f th fiwith public transport to one of the five

principal cities, 2005

15SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

Land use analyses: population growth di t th F d l St ti ti l Offiaccording to the Federal Statistical Office

+ 1 279 797(2005-2030; mean scenario; +17.2%)

+ 1,279,797

16SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

Land use analyses: l ti di t ib ti b 2030population distribution by 2030

Increase/decrease inIncrease/decrease in inhabitants per local authority area, 2005 – 2030

SFSO mean scenario

17SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

Land use analyses: estimated population th b l l th it tgrowth by local authority type

Population 2030 Population growth (in %)

tion

2030

grow

th (i

n %

)

Popu

lat

Popu

latio

n g

r cen

tres

res

/ MC

rbs

/ MC

m c

entre

s

/ med

. C

l cen

tres

ral a

reas

ral a

reas

ist a

reas

Central Peripheral

Maj

or

Sub

-cen

tr

Sub

ur

Med

ium

Sub

urbs

/

Sm

all

Per

iurb

an ru

r

Agr

icul

tur

Tour

i

18SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

Central Peripheral

1 The Swiss context1. The Swiss context2. Studies on how land use and transport interact:

the pastp3. What we want and need land use modelling to do:

the future

19SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

What we want and need (1)

• A better understanding of the medium and long-termA better understanding of the medium and long term secondary impact of new transport infrastructures on ...

• A better understanding of building zoning on ...

... settlement patterns, land prices and locational appeal for businesses and the populationappeal for businesses and the population

20SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE

Concluding remarks

- Integrated transport and land use models areIntegrated transport and land use models are needed urgently

- The model is no substitute for coherent spatial and ptransport policy

- A degree of standardisation is essential- No monopoly, but broadly accessible, open source

software- Education and training

21SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE