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Large Truck Crash Risk,Causation, & Prevention
Ronald R. Knipling, Ph.D.Safety Consultant & Trainer
Arlington, Virginia, [email protected]
www.safetyforthelonghaul.com
IRU Academy FADEEAC International ConferenceBuenos Aires, Argentina -- April 5, 2011
Today’s Topics• Crash risk
– High-risk drivers– High-risk road conditions
• Proximal (immediate) crash causes
• The “Crash Trifecta”• Driver & management
training• Vehicle-based safety
technologies• Active carrier safety
management.
Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes
Crash Risk Factors
• Risk Factors:– Driver:
• Enduring• Temporary
– Vehicle– Roadway/Environment
• Proximal Causes:– Driver– Vehicle– Roadway/Environmental
Crash Risk FactorsDriver Factors:Enduring driver traits; e.g.,• Age• Personality (e.g., aggressive,
impulsive)• Risk perception & attitudes• Medical conditions
Temporary driver states; e.g.,
• Prior sleep• Circadian rhythms• Moods• Medications &
drugs
Other Factors:Vehicle deficiencies; e.g.,
• Brakes• Tires• Lighting
Roadway; e.g.,• Undivided roads• Dense traffic• Curves
Naturalistic Driving (Instrumented Vehicle) Study Near-Crash
[Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]
Truck Naturalistic Driving Dataon At-Fault Traffic Conflicts of 95 Drivers
0 0.1 to 3 3.1 to 6 6.1 to 9 9.1 to 12 12+0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Driver Risk Frequency Distribution
At-Fault Traffic Conflicts Per 100 Hours Driving
Nu
mb
er o
f D
rive
rs (
N =
95)
Skewed Distribution:Many good drivers buta few bad & very bad drivers
High- & Low-Risk CMV Drivers
Relative Exposure & Risk for High & Low Risk Groups
81%
47%
19%
53%
Hours of Driving At-Fault Events
Risk Odds Ratio = 4.9
Safety Manager Survey Results:
Driver Factors Associated with Risk1. Aggressive/angry2. Impatient/impulsive3. Inattentive4. Inexperienced (new driver)5. Unhappy with job/company6. Young (< 25)7. Sleep disorder; e.g., sleep apnea8. Unhappy marriage/family9. Debt/financial problems10. Medical condition; e.g., heart
Personality &Risk Attitudes
Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes
Other high-risk roadway conditions include dense traffic & work zones
Relative Exposure & Risk:Undivided & Divided Highways
Divided 90%
62%
38%
10%
Exposure Traffic Conflicts
Undivided
Odds ratio = 5.3
High-Risk Road Locations & Conditions
• Single-vehicle crashes:– Narrow roads– Curves– Ramps
• Multi-vehicle crashes:– Undivided roads– Heavy traffic– Work zones:
• ~13% of serious crashes• <1% of driving exposure• Risk increase > 20X
Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) Percentages for Truck At-Fault Crashes
CR Category Examples %
Driver Physical Failure• Asleep-at-the-wheel• Heart attack• Other physical impairment
12%
Driver Recognition Failure
• Inattention• Distraction (internal or external)• “Looked but did not see”
30%
Driver Decision Error• Too fast for conditions• Following too closely• Misjudgment or false assumption
40%
Driver Response Execution Error
• Overcompensation• Poor vehicle control/maneuvering• Panic/freezing
6%
Vehicle Failure• Brake failure• Tire failure• Cargo shift
10%
Roadway/ Environment• Road signs/signals missing• Road design• Weather and/or slick roads
2%
DRIVER ERROR = 88%!!!
Convergence of Events Causing Crashes
Adapted from Reason (1990)and Short et al. (2007).
Crash “Tri-Fecta”Frequently Seen in Crashes & Near-Crashes
1. Misbehavior: Unsafe pre-event behavior
2. Mistake: Transient driver inattention
3. Unexpected traffic event.
Crash Example
[Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]
Collision Warning Systems• Forward Collision
Warning(with AdaptiveCruise Control)
• Side ObjectDetection(Lane Change/Merge Warnings)
• Lane Departure Warning• Backing Collision
Warning(Rear-Object Detection)
17
Courtesy Iteris, Inc.
IVBSS Collision Warning Systems;e.g., Side Object, Forward, & Lane Departure
Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety System (IVBSS) Truck Configuration
Large Truck Safety Technologies:Estimated Returns On Investments (ROIs)*
Vehicle-BasedCrash Avoidance System
Estimated5-Year ROIper $1.00
Forward Collision Warning $4.28
Lane Departure Warning $3.96
Roll Stability Control $5.51
19
* FMCSA Benefit-Cost Analysis of Onboard Safety Systems.Tech Brief No. FMCSA-RRT-09-023 based on ATRI research.February 2009.
Carrier safety manager: the most important person in truck safety!• Driver selection• Training• Evaluation• Behavioral management:
–Rewards–Discipline & remediation
• Vehicle technologies & maintenance• Risk avoidance; e.g., dispatching & routing.
Safety Management:Comprehensive and Targeted
Principal Target forImproved Safety
KSA (Knowledge, Skill, Attitude) 3-Legged Stool: Basic Elements of Driver Behavior & Training
Attitudes:(a)Hard to change (related to personality)(b)Often lead to worst crashes
Carrier Safety Manager Training & Development
Safety Knowledge:• Regulatory compliance• Crash risk factors• Crash causes• Crash investigation• Vehicle maintenance• Safety technologies• Driver selection• Driver training• Driver fatigue, scheduling
& dispatching• Behavioral safety
management.
Supervisory Skills:• Planning• Controlling• Problem solving• Monitoring performance• Training & coaching• Rewarding & disciplining• Managing time• Oral communication• Written communication• Self-development• Representing company.
What motivates carrier safety?Safety Culture Study Carrier Survey Results
1. Reduce crashes & injuries2. Set high industry safety standard3. Decrease insurance costs4. Avoid costly lawsuits5. Avoid enforcement penalties6. Attract & retain drivers7. Attract & retain customers.
* Short, J. et al. Synthesis 14: The Role of Safety Culturein Preventing CMV Crashes. TRB Truck & Bus Synthesis Program, 2007.
The Business Model of Truck Safety
Business Benefits of Safety:
• Reduced costs• Improved productivity• Enhanced quality• Improved employee:
– Relations– Morale– Retention– Off-the-job safety awareness
• Better organizational image• Organizational pride.
Freight Revenue Needed toCompensate for Crash Loss
Company Profit Margin:
Crash Loss:1% 3% 5%
$1,000 $100,000 $33,000 $20,000
$25,000 $2.5 Million $833,000 $500,000
$1 Million $100 Million $33.3 Million $20 Million
Compliance with Regulations PLUSActive “Beyond Compliance” Carrier Management
Safety for the Long Haul Large Truck Crash Risk, Causation, & Prevention• Publisher: ATA• 13 chapters encompassing:
– Basic crash concepts– Risk– Causation– Countermeasures– Safety management– National policy.
• Target audiences:– Carrier safety managers– Government & industry officials– Students
• Availability:www.atabusinesssolutions.com/
Thanks for your attention!Ron Knipling
(703) 533-2895 [email protected]
Website information & downloads:• Book overview & detailed outline• Training seminar information• Crash & risk analysis guide• Publications:
– Safety management reports– Safety research– Articles on truck safety
• Presentations.