Large Truck Crash Risk,Causation, & Prevention

Ronald R. Knipling, Ph.D.Safety Consultant & Trainer

Arlington, Virginia, USArknipling@verizon.net

www.safetyforthelonghaul.com

IRU Academy FADEEAC International ConferenceBuenos Aires, Argentina -- April 5, 2011

Today’s Topics• Crash risk

– High-risk drivers– High-risk road conditions

• Proximal (immediate) crash causes

• The “Crash Trifecta”• Driver & management

training• Vehicle-based safety

technologies• Active carrier safety

management.

Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes

Crash Risk Factors

• Risk Factors:– Driver:

• Enduring• Temporary

– Vehicle– Roadway/Environment

• Proximal Causes:– Driver– Vehicle– Roadway/Environmental

Crash Risk FactorsDriver Factors:Enduring driver traits; e.g.,• Age• Personality (e.g., aggressive,

impulsive)• Risk perception & attitudes• Medical conditions

Temporary driver states; e.g.,

• Prior sleep• Circadian rhythms• Moods• Medications &

drugs

Other Factors:Vehicle deficiencies; e.g.,

• Brakes• Tires• Lighting

Roadway; e.g.,• Undivided roads• Dense traffic• Curves

Naturalistic Driving (Instrumented Vehicle) Study Near-Crash

[Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]

Truck Naturalistic Driving Dataon At-Fault Traffic Conflicts of 95 Drivers

0 0.1 to 3 3.1 to 6 6.1 to 9 9.1 to 12 12+0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Driver Risk Frequency Distribution

At-Fault Traffic Conflicts Per 100 Hours Driving

Nu

mb

er o

f D

rive

rs (

N =

95)

Skewed Distribution:Many good drivers buta few bad & very bad drivers

High- & Low-Risk CMV Drivers

Relative Exposure & Risk for High & Low Risk Groups

81%

47%

19%

53%

Hours of Driving At-Fault Events

Risk Odds Ratio = 4.9

Safety Manager Survey Results:

Driver Factors Associated with Risk1. Aggressive/angry2. Impatient/impulsive3. Inattentive4. Inexperienced (new driver)5. Unhappy with job/company6. Young (< 25)7. Sleep disorder; e.g., sleep apnea8. Unhappy marriage/family9. Debt/financial problems10. Medical condition; e.g., heart

Personality &Risk Attitudes

Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes

Other high-risk roadway conditions include dense traffic & work zones

Relative Exposure & Risk:Undivided & Divided Highways

Divided 90%

62%

38%

10%

Exposure Traffic Conflicts

Undivided

Odds ratio = 5.3

High-Risk Road Locations & Conditions

• Single-vehicle crashes:– Narrow roads– Curves– Ramps

• Multi-vehicle crashes:– Undivided roads– Heavy traffic– Work zones:

• ~13% of serious crashes• <1% of driving exposure• Risk increase > 20X

Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) Percentages for Truck At-Fault Crashes

CR Category Examples %

Driver Physical Failure• Asleep-at-the-wheel• Heart attack• Other physical impairment

12%

Driver Recognition Failure

• Inattention• Distraction (internal or external)• “Looked but did not see”

30%

Driver Decision Error• Too fast for conditions• Following too closely• Misjudgment or false assumption

40%

Driver Response Execution Error

• Overcompensation• Poor vehicle control/maneuvering• Panic/freezing

6%

Vehicle Failure• Brake failure• Tire failure• Cargo shift

10%

Roadway/ Environment• Road signs/signals missing• Road design• Weather and/or slick roads

2%

DRIVER ERROR = 88%!!!

Convergence of Events Causing Crashes

Adapted from Reason (1990)and Short et al. (2007).

Crash “Tri-Fecta”Frequently Seen in Crashes & Near-Crashes

1. Misbehavior: Unsafe pre-event behavior

2. Mistake: Transient driver inattention

3. Unexpected traffic event.

Crash Example

[Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]

Collision Warning Systems• Forward Collision

Warning(with AdaptiveCruise Control)

• Side ObjectDetection(Lane Change/Merge Warnings)

• Lane Departure Warning• Backing Collision

Warning(Rear-Object Detection)

17

Courtesy Iteris, Inc.

IVBSS Collision Warning Systems;e.g., Side Object, Forward, & Lane Departure

Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety System (IVBSS) Truck Configuration

Large Truck Safety Technologies:Estimated Returns On Investments (ROIs)*

Vehicle-BasedCrash Avoidance System

Estimated5-Year ROIper $1.00

Forward Collision Warning $4.28

Lane Departure Warning $3.96

Roll Stability Control $5.51

19

* FMCSA Benefit-Cost Analysis of Onboard Safety Systems.Tech Brief No. FMCSA-RRT-09-023 based on ATRI research.February 2009.

Carrier safety manager: the most important person in truck safety!• Driver selection• Training• Evaluation• Behavioral management:

–Rewards–Discipline & remediation

• Vehicle technologies & maintenance• Risk avoidance; e.g., dispatching & routing.

Safety Management:Comprehensive and Targeted

Principal Target forImproved Safety

KSA (Knowledge, Skill, Attitude) 3-Legged Stool: Basic Elements of Driver Behavior & Training

Attitudes:(a)Hard to change (related to personality)(b)Often lead to worst crashes

Carrier Safety Manager Training & Development

Safety Knowledge:• Regulatory compliance• Crash risk factors• Crash causes• Crash investigation• Vehicle maintenance• Safety technologies• Driver selection• Driver training• Driver fatigue, scheduling

& dispatching• Behavioral safety

management.

Supervisory Skills:• Planning• Controlling• Problem solving• Monitoring performance• Training & coaching• Rewarding & disciplining• Managing time• Oral communication• Written communication• Self-development• Representing company.

What motivates carrier safety?Safety Culture Study Carrier Survey Results

1. Reduce crashes & injuries2. Set high industry safety standard3. Decrease insurance costs4. Avoid costly lawsuits5. Avoid enforcement penalties6. Attract & retain drivers7. Attract & retain customers.

* Short, J. et al. Synthesis 14: The Role of Safety Culturein Preventing CMV Crashes. TRB Truck & Bus Synthesis Program, 2007.

The Business Model of Truck Safety

Business Benefits of Safety:

• Reduced costs• Improved productivity• Enhanced quality• Improved employee:

– Relations– Morale– Retention– Off-the-job safety awareness

• Better organizational image• Organizational pride.

Freight Revenue Needed toCompensate for Crash Loss

Company Profit Margin:

Crash Loss:1% 3% 5%

$1,000 $100,000 $33,000 $20,000

$25,000 $2.5 Million $833,000 $500,000

$1 Million $100 Million $33.3 Million $20 Million

Compliance with Regulations PLUSActive “Beyond Compliance” Carrier Management

Safety for the Long Haul Large Truck Crash Risk, Causation, & Prevention• Publisher: ATA• 13 chapters encompassing:

– Basic crash concepts– Risk– Causation– Countermeasures– Safety management– National policy.

• Target audiences:– Carrier safety managers– Government & industry officials– Students

• Availability:www.atabusinesssolutions.com/

Thanks for your attention!Ron Knipling

(703) 533-2895 rknipling@verizon.netwww.safetyforthelonghaul.com

Website information & downloads:• Book overview & detailed outline• Training seminar information• Crash & risk analysis guide• Publications:

– Safety management reports– Safety research– Articles on truck safety

• Presentations.