US Natural Gas: imports down exports up domestic consumption up US competitiveness up
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Global economic outlook for growth of GDP, 2014 & beyond
Note: projections are based on trend growth estimates, which – for the period 2014‐2019 – are adjusted for adjustments from remaining output gaps *Europe includes 27 members of the European Union (excluding Croatia) as well as Switzerland and Norway. **Other advanced economies are Australia, Canada, Iceland, Israel, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China. ***Southeast Europe includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro, and Turkey. Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2014, May 2014 update. https://www.conference‐board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm
Distribution of World GDP in 2000, 2012, 2025
Note: GDP shares are converted to U.S. dollars using purchasing power parities.Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2014, May 2014 update
US US US
China
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OK Economy in Recovery: Where do we go from here?
In a nut shell• OK entered the recession later than the US, and employment recovered more quickly
• In addition to a diversified economy, Ag and Mining were particularly beneficial in the recession mitigation/recovery
• Ongoing drought and related water issues pose challenges to both Ag and Mining industries
• Earnings are rising for most sectors• Despite low unemployment rates, majority of counties are losing employment; higher wage jobs in particular are declining
• Concern over civic economy’s ability to support continued growth/diversity
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Source: BEA, Wage and Salary Employment; http://www.bea.gov, accessed on accessed October 21, 2014 @ 4:05 pm
1300.0
1350.0
1400.0
1450.0
1500.0
1550.0
1600.0
1650.0
1700.0
Jan2004
Nov2004
Sep2005
Jul2006
May2007
Mar2008
Jan2009
Nov2009
Sep2010
Jul2011
May2012
Mar2013
Jan2014
Total Nonfarm Employment, 2004‐2014
In Thousands
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Oklahoma’s Gross State Product, 2004‐2013
Source: BLS, State and Metro Area Employment, Hours & Earnings; http://www.bls.gov/sae, accessed on accessed October 22, 2014 @ 10:00 am
$0.00
$200.00
$400.00
$600.00
$800.00
$1,000.00
$1,200.00
$1,400.00
Jan2007
Oct2007
Jul2008
Apr2009
Jan2010
Oct2010
Jul2011
Apr2012
Jan2013
Oct2013
Jul2014
Average Weekly Earning by Industry, 2007‐2014
Construction
Financial Activities
Professional andBusiness Services
Education andHealth Services
Leisure andHospitality
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Wholesale Trade
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Oklahoma Economy by Industry, 2013
Source: BEA, Gross Domestic Product by State, Real GDP; http://www.bea.gov, accessed on accessed October 3, 2014 @ 2:35 pm
Agriculture2%
Mining15% Utilities
3%
Construction4%
Manufacturing10%
Wholesale trade5% Retail trade
6%Transp. & warehousing
4%Information
3%
FIRE13%
Prof. and bus. services8%
Educ. Serv.0%
Health care7%
AER1%
Accomm. & food2%
Other serv.2% Government
15%
Location Quotients, 2013, and Real G
DP Growth Rates, U
nited
States and Oklahoma, 2004‐2013 and 2012‐13
Source: BEA
, http://w
ww.bea.gov/; accessed October 3, 2014 @
3:05 pm
Industry LQ % Total Emp, 2013
% Chg Emp, ‘04‐’13
Agriculture 1.40 1.1% 12.1%
Mining 5.54 3.5% 83.8%
Utilities 1.52 0.7% 23.5%
Construction 1.08 4.6% 18.5%
Manufacturing 0.81 8.2% -3.0%
Wholesale trade 0.86 3.7% 13.4%
Retail trade 1.06 10.5% 4.5%
Transp. & warehousing 1.22 2.8% 6.6%
Information 0.62 1.3% -26.9%
FIRE 0.66 4.8% 0.8%
Prof. & bus. serv 0.67 10.8% 7.2%
Educ. & health care 0.84 12.4% 15.9%
AER & accom. serv. 0.79 9.1% 17.1%
Other serv. 0.95 4.6% -3.1%
Government 1.22 21.9% 8.3%
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Unemployment Rates, Aug 2014
Source: Compiled from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Employment Gains and Losses (Sept. ‘13‐Sept. ’14)
Job Gaining Industries (Top 5 in descending order of jobs
gained)
Job Losing Industries(Top 5 in ascending order of jobs lost)
Accommodations (7,800; 5.7%) Professional & Technical Services (‐3,800; ‐5.6%)
Health Services (7,300; 3.5%) Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities(‐800;‐1.4%)
Durable Manufacturing (5,600; 5.9%) Information (‐700, ‐3.2%)
Admin & Waste Mgt (3,900; 4.1%) State Government (‐500; ‐0.6%)
Source: Compiled from OESC Economic Research and Analysis, “Oklahoma Employment Report,” Sept 2013-2014
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Employment Growth, Aug 2013‐14
Source: Bishop, Bill. “Rural Job‐Growth Rate Half That of Metro.” The Daily Yonder, October 6, 2014. http://www.dailyyonder.com/rural‐job‐growth‐rate‐half‐metro/2014/10/03/7561; using BLS LAUS data
Sources: http://okpolicy.org/budget‐trends‐outlooks‐february‐2014 and http://www.ok.gov/governor/documents/FY%202015%20budget%20deal%20fact%20sheet.pdf
