Larsen & Toubro Infotech PICK OF THE WEEK Oct 03, 2017 PCG Pick of the... · Larsen & Toubro...

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Larsen & Toubro Infotech PICK OF THE WEEK

Oct 03, 2017

Recommendation

Buy at CMP and add on Dips

Add on dips to

Rs.797-758

Target

Rs. 880-950

Time Horizon

4 Quarters

Industry

IT

CMP

Rs. 797

L&T Infotech (LTI), headquartered in Mumbai, was incorporated in December 1996; the company is a subsidiary

of L&T. It is the 6th largest Indian IT services company in terms of revenues, with 23 delivery centres, > 21,000

employees, with active client base of more than 250. LTI’s industry vertical footprint is spread across BFS (27%

of revenue), Insurance (21% of revenue), Energy and process (12% of revenue), Hi-tech media and entertainment

(11% of revenue). LTI’s geographical revenue mix includes 69% of revenue from North America, 18% from Europe

and 7.5% from India.

Its range of services include application development (38% of revenues), enterprise solutions (23%), AIM, mobility

and platform-based solutions (19% of revenue), Infrastructure management services (11%) and testing (9% of

revenue).

Investment Rationale:

Superior Brand name & strong Financial Profile

Being an L&T group company, it benefits from the strong brand name and domain expertise available within the

group, resulting in better penetration and acceptability in the market.

The company has a strong financial profile marked by robust net worth, healthy cash accruals and Zero debt. LTI

has Industry-leading return ratios (>50% RoIC) and rising payout (>2.5% Avg. dividend yield).

Management bandwidth strengthened

LTI has also scaled its management bandwidth in the past year, with the induction of senior management from

companies such as Infosys, Accenture and Mindtree.

The senior management team includes: (1) Sanjay Jalona, MD & CEO (former EVP & Global Head: Hi-tech, Mfg,

Engg services at Infosys), (2) Aftab Ullah, COO (earlier India Head: Bank of America Captive and Global Head

Financial services: Capgemini), (3) Sudhir Chaturvedi, President Sales (earlier COO at NIIT Tech).

We believe that this would support in the mining of large accounts as well as in new logo wins, as the company

becomes more competitive.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYST

Nisha Shankhala

[email protected]

HDFC Scrip Code LTINFO

BSE Code 540005

NSE Code LTI

Bloomberg LTI

CMP as on 29 Sep’17 797

Equity Capital (Rs mn) 171

Face Value (Rs) 1

Equity O/S (mn) 171

Market Cap (Rs mn) 136398

Book Value (Rs) 185

Avg. 52 Week Vol 86284

52 Week High 840

52 Week Low 595

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 84.3

Institutions 7.6

Non Institutions 8.1

PCG Risk Rating* Yellow

* Refer Rating explanation

mailto:[email protected]

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Oct 03, 2017

US $1bn threshold as a possible inflection point

LTI is the sixth Indian IT services company to enter the USD 1bn plus revenue slab. Now, we believe that

company will participate in a greater number of large deals.

Large deal TCV of $100mn (net new) booked in 3Q is expected to ramp-up from 2QFY18.

LTI’s revenue growth (10.2% CAGR over FY17-19E) is expected to be in-line with midcap-IT growth (9.5%

CAGR over FY17-19E). However, operating margin (19% for LTI vs. midcap IT at ~15%) and RoE (30%

for LTI vs. midcap median at 20%) will continue to be higher than midcap-IT peers, signifying LTI’s core

strengths.

Higher Offshore share reflected in margin strength

Offshore revenue share is highest of LTI as compared to its peers. LTI’s offshore as % of revenue stands

at 51.3% as compared to peers that range from 33% to 49%. The higher offshore share is supported by

its global delivery model and is reflected in margin strength. Moreover, company will not be having massive

effect because of the change in H-1B visa norms but new US Government’s protectionist policies may give

some heat.

Headwinds receding in the Energy vertical

The oil and gas segment within the energy and process vertical had historically dragged LTI’s performance

down, following plummeting oil prices. Growth impact on LTI owing to the oil & gas vertical decline was

significant, LTI’s revenue (ex-energy vertical) grew 14% CAGR over FY14-17, as compared to growth of

9% including the vertical.

The energy and process vertical grew 1.1% in FY17 as compared to 20%, and 14% decline in FY15 and

FY16, respectively. And recent deal wins such as OKQ8 Scandinavia (leading energy Distribution Company

in Nordics) and stability in larger accounts are expected to improve the prospects of the oil and gas vertical

going ahead also. LTI gets 11.4% of the revenue from the energy segment so this development provide

bright prospectus for company.

Sharpening focus on emerging technologies

Digitisation would increasingly become systematically critical in the near future, for which the company

plans to enhance digital platforms and it is working really well as digital services have penetrated in all its

top-50 accounts. Its growth in digital at 35% in FY17 was higher than peers, such as Mindtree (18.3%) and

TCS (28.7%).

Figure 1ufuyut

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

L&T Infotech, headquartered

in Mumbai, was incorporated

in December 1996; the

company is a subsidiary of

L&T. It is the 6th largest

Indian IT services company in

terms of revenue generation.

LTI’s revenue growth (10.2%

CAGR over FY17-19E) is

expected to be in-line with

midcap-IT growth. However,

operating margin (19% for

LTI vs midcap IT at ~15%)

and RoE% (30% for LTI vs

midcap median at 20%) will

continue to be higher than

midcap-IT peers, signifying

LTI’s core strengths.

We see the $ 1bn threshold as

a possible inflection point for

LTI, with growth from (1) An

increasing deal pipe, (2)

Deeper penetration in large

accounts, (3) Headwinds

receding in the energy vertical

and (4) Improving quality of

business (digital and

platform-led growth).

We recommend L&T Infotech

Ltd. a BUY at CMP of Rs. 797

and add on the dip of Rs. 758

for the target of Rs. 880 and

950 implying 13x and 13.9x

FY19E EPS.

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Oct 03, 2017

About IPO: The Company had come up with the IPO in July 2016. It had issued 1,75,00,000 Equity Shares

- entirely offer for sale by L&T. The IPO price was Rs. 710 and the stock got listed on bourses on Jul 21,

2016.

Risk & Concerns: Change in Global Macro environment.

Strengthening of Rupee against Dollar.

Loss of any major client will have sharp effect on company’s revenue,

Pricing pressure in traditional services/renewals.

View & Valuation:

We see the USD 1bn threshold as possible inflection point for LTI, with growth from (1) An increasing deal pipeline, (2) Deeper penetration in large accounts, (3) Headwinds receding in the energy vertical and (4) Improving quality of business (digital and platform-led growth). These factors are backed by a superior delivery mix (highest off-shoring within the peerset), diversified service portfolio and expanding geographical presence.

L&T Infotech management is aware of rising cash pile leading to reduction in return on capital and may take steps towards improving it by increasing dividend payout. We recommend L&T Infotech Ltd. a BUY at CMP of Rs. 797 and add on the dip of Rs. 758 for the target of Rs. 880 and 950 implying 13x and 13.9x FY19E EPS.

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Oct 03, 2017

Quarterly Financials Snapshot (Consolidated)

Particulars (Rs bn) 1QFY18 1QFY17 YoY (%) 4QFY17 QoQ (%)

Revenue USD mn 259.2 231.1 12.2 254.1 2.0

Revenue 16.71 15.55 7.4 16.77 (0.4)

Direct cost 11.06 10.07 9.9 10.77 2.8

SG&A Expenses 2.84 2.44 16.8 2.82 1.0

EBITDA 2.80 3.05 (8.2) 3.19 (12.3)

Depreciation 0.39 0.43 (8.4) 0.42 (5.8)

EBIT 2.41 2.62 (8.2) 2.77 (13.2)

Other Income 0.25 0.03 642.4 0.00 6025.0

Interest Cost - 0.00 (100.0) 0.01 (100.0)

FX Gains / (Loss) 0.84 0.34 147.5 0.50 68.1

PBT 3.49 2.99 16.6 3.28 6.5

Tax 0.82 0.63 28.9 0.73 11.9

RPAT 2.67 2.36 13.3 2.55 5.0

PICK OF THE WEEK

1st July 2017

Highlights of the quarter:

Revenue at USD 259mn, 2% QoQ (1.5% CC QoQ and 11.8% CC YoY) driven by strong growth in digital (4.5% QoQ in analytics and 6.3% QoQ in enterprise integration and mobility) and IMS (12.5% QoQ driven by cloud).

EBITDA% at 16.8% -227bps QoQ was impacted by INR appreciation (-90bps), lower utilization

and higher lateral intake (-110bps impact), S&M and visa expense (-50bps impact). APAT came at Rs 2.67bn, 5% QoQ on higher forex gain of Rs 0.84bn (Rs 0.5bn in 4Q).

Top account grew above company average while growth was largely driven by non-top accounts

(7.4% QoQ) in 1Q. Net additions were strong during the quarter (1,298 net adds in 1Q as compared to 951 adds in FY17) which also resulted in lower utilizations (-100bps QoQ to 78.2%).

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Oct 03, 2017

Headcount, Utilization Data

(Nos.) 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18

Total headcount 21,073 20,072 19,292 19,751 20,605 21,023 22,321

Development 19,669 18,705 17,959 18,428 19,234 19,627 20,899

Sales & support 1,404 1,367 1,333 1,323 1,371 1,396 1,422

Net additions (98) (1,001) (780) 459 854 418 1,298

Attrition rate (%) 18.5 18.4 19.5 18.5 18.1 16.9 14.7

Utilisation - incl trainees (%) 74.0 75.9 77.4 78.7 78.1 78.3 77.7

Utilisation - excl trainees (%) 76.5 77.1 78.0 80.6 80.5 79.3 78.2

Key Assumptions Particulars FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Onsite Revenue growth (%) 9.9 9.3 7.5 14.4

Offshore Revenue growth (%) 9.2 9.4 14.1 10.9

Total USD revenue growth (%) 9.5 9.3 10.9 12.5

USD/INR rate 65.9 67.0 65.4 66.0

EBITDA margin (%) 17.5 18.9 17.0 18.3

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Oct 03, 2017

Revenue Mix By Verticals (%)


BFS

27.0

Auto Aero and Others

21.7 Insurance20.7

Energy & Process

11.6

Hi-tech, Media &

Ent.10.9

CPG, Retail

& Pharma8.1

Revenue Mix By Service Line (%)


ADM

38.4

Enterprise

solutions

22.6

AIM, Enterprise

integration, mobility

14.5

IMS

11.4

Testing

9.1

Platform based

solutions4.0

Revenue Mix By Geography (%)


North

America

68.6

Europe18.1

India

7.5

RoW3.7

Asia Pacific

2.1

Revenue Mix By Top Accounts


Top Account

15.5

Top 2-5

accounts

23.0

Top 6-10 accounts

14.6

Top 11-20

accounts

14.9

Non top-20 accounts

32.0

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Oct 03, 2017

LTI’s Revenue Trend


810 887

970 1,076

1,211

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Revenue EBITDA%

(USD

EBITDA and APAT Trend


10

,04

5

10

,24

8

12

,30

2

11

,94

0

14

,60

0

7,5

95

8,3

65

9,7

09

10

,21

0

11

,65

0

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

EBITDA APAT

(Rs mn)

PAT Margin Near Large Cap Peers


6.3

% 7.4

% 10.0

%

11

.9%

12

.9%

15

.2%

16

.2% 19

.3%

21

.0%

22

.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

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High Revenue Productivity (Revenue/empl.)


3

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26

41,2

28

42

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8

42,6

41

45

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3

45

,98

9

47

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8

48

,34

7

51,2

87

61,1

64

0

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20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

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(USD)

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Oct 03, 2017

Income Statement (Consolidated) YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Net Revenues (US$ mn) 810 887 970 1,076 1,211

Growth (%) 8.4% 9.5% 9.3% 10.9% 12.5%

Net Revenues 49.78 58.46 65.01 70.35 79.92

Growth (%) 1.2% 17.4% 11.2% 8.2% 13.6%

Employee Expenses 29.24 35.27 37.76 41.29 46.24

Other operating expenses 10.49 12.95 14.95 17.12 19.08

EBITDA 10.04 10.25 12.30 11.94 14.60

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.2% 17.5% 18.9% 17.0% 18.3%

EBITDA Growth (%) -12.4% 2.0% 20.0% -2.9% 22.2%

Depreciation 1.58 1.74 1.78 1.76 2.00

EBIT 8.47 8.51 10.52 10.18 12.60

Other Income (Including EO Items) 0.92 1.90 1.87 3.08 2.53

Interest 0.10 0.06 0.03 - -

PBT 9.28 10.35 12.36 13.26 15.13

Tax (Incl Deferred) 1.68 1.98 2.65 3.05 3.48

RPAT 7.59 8.37 9.71 10.21 11.65

APAT 7.59 8.37 9.71 10.21 11.65

APAT Growth (%) 15.1% 10.1% 16.1% 5.2% 14.1%

Adjusted EPS (Rs) 47.1 49.3 56.9 59.9 68.3

EPS Growth (%) 15.1% 4.6% 15.6% 5.2% 14.1%


Balance Sheet (Consolidated) YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital - Equity 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17

Reserves 19.58 21.08 31.27 37.20 43.25

Total Shareholders’ Funds 19.74 21.25 31.44 37.37 43.42

Total Debt 2.18 0.55 - - -

Net Deferred Taxes (0.83) (1.97) (1.26) (1.26) (1.26)

Long Term Provisions & Others 0.22 0.24 0.29 0.31 0.35

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 21.31 20.07 30.47 36.42 42.52

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 2.75 2.79 2.58 3.31 3.53

Goodwill & intangibles 4.28 3.77 2.85 4.28 4.61

Investments 1.81 1.75 3.47 3.47 3.47

LT Loans & Advances 0.98 0.89 0.72 0.78 0.89

Total Non-current Assets 9.87 9.21 9.62 11.85 12.50

Debtors 10.83 11.66 11.70 12.91 14.67

Other Current Assets 2.79 4.67 5.71 6.18 7.02

Cash & Equivalents 5.02 3.87 15.88 18.93 23.61

Total Current Assets 18.63 20.20 33.29 38.03 45.30

Creditors 2.69 3.41 3.37 3.64 4.14

Other Current Liabilities & Prov. 4.51 5.94 9.07 9.82 11.15

Total Current Liabilities 7.19 9.34 12.44 13.46 15.29

Net Current Assets 11.44 10.86 20.85 24.57 30.01

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 21.31 20.07 30.47 36.42 42.52


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Oct 03, 2017

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) YE March (Rs bn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Reported PBT 9.28 10.35 12.36 13.26 15.13

Interest expenses 0.10 0.06 0.03 - -

Depreciation 1.58 1.74 1.78 1.76 2.00

Working Capital Change (0.92) (0.94) 2.02 (0.66) (0.77)

Tax Paid (1.68) (1.98) (2.65) (3.05) (3.48)

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 6.42 8.63 14.46 11.27 12.82

Capex (1.96) (1.14) (0.75) (1.06) (1.20)

Free cash flow (FCF) 4.46 7.49 13.70 10.22 11.62

Investments (1.84) 0.57 (0.58) (2.17) (0.55)

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (3.80) (0.57) (1.34) (3.22) (1.75)

Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 1.07 (1.64) (0.40) - -

Interest Expenses (0.10) (0.06) (0.03) - -

FCFE 5.43 5.79 13.27 10.22 11.62

Share Capital Issuance (0.00) 0.01 0.00 - -

Dividend (4.81) (5.47) (3.38) (4.29) (5.59)

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (3.84) (7.16) (3.81) (4.29) (5.59)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (1.22) 0.91 9.31 3.76 5.48

Closing Cash & Equivalents 5.02 3.87 15.88 18.93 23.61


Key Ratios YE March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

PROFITABILITY (%)

GPM 41.3 39.7 41.9 41.3 42.1

EBITDA Margin 20.2 17.5 18.9 17.0 18.3

APAT Margin 15.3 14.3 14.9 14.5 14.6

RoE 42.4 40.8 36.9 29.7 28.8

RoIC (or Core RoCE) 44.0 42.3 53.7 48.9 53.3

RoCE 38.6 40.7 38.5 30.5 29.5

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 18.1 19.2 21.4 23.0 23.0

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.3

Debtors (days) 79 73 66 67 67

Payables (days) 20 21 19 19 19

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 47 44 28 29 29

Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.2 0.1 - - -

Net D/E (x) (0.1) (0.2) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)

Interest Coverage (x) 81 147 329 NA NA

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 47.1 49.3 56.9 59.9 68.3

CEPS 56.9 59.5 67.6 70.5 80.3

Dividend 30 33 17 21 27

Book Value 122 125 185 220 256

VALUATION

P/E (x) 16.9 16.2 14.0 13.3 11.7

P/BV (x) 6.5 6.4 4.3 3.6 3.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 12.4 9.3 9.3 7.3

OCF/EV (%) 5.0 6.8 12.6 10.1 12.0

FCF/EV (%) 3.5 5.9 12.0 9.2 10.9

FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 4.2 4.4 10.2 7.8 8.9

Dividend Yield (%) 3.9 4.3 2.2 2.8 3.6


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Oct 03, 2017

Rating Chart

R E T U R N

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

RISK

Ratings Explanation:

RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE

BLUE LOW RISK - LOW RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20% OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 15%

& IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 15%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 20% OR

MORE

YELLOW MEDIUM RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS






FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 35% OR

MORE

RED HIGH RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS







OR MORE

11 | P a g e


Oct 03, 2017

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

29-S

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6

13-O

ct-

16

27-O

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10-N

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24-N

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08-D

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22-D

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05-J

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7

19-J

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02-F

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30-M

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11-M

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25-M

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20-J

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03-A

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7

17-A

ug-1

7

31-A

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7

14-S

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7

28-S

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7

Close Price

Rating Definition:

Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year. Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

12 | P a g e


Oct 03, 2017

Disclosure: I, Nisha Sankhala, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. 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No.: INH000002475, CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193 Mutual Funds Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before investing.

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Larsen & Toubro Infotech PICK OF THE WEEK Oct 03, 2017 PCG Pick of the... · Larsen & Toubro...

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