José Sergio Gabrielli de AzevedoCEO and PresidentFebruary, 2007
CERAWeek 2007 Latin America Perspectives and Opportunities
1984 1994 2004
Total762 billion barrels
Total1,017 billion barrels
Total1,194 billion barrels
In 20 years, Latin America proven reserves increased from 36.6 billion barrels (1984) to 103 billion.Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
R/P* = 26.77 R/P* = 41.78 R/P* = 41.84
* Reserves/Production Latin America (years)
12.7%
7.6%
13.4%
5.0%
4.8%
56.5%
Middle Orient Europe & Eurasia AfricaNorth America Pacific Asia Latin America
7.9%
6.4%
8.8%
3.8%
8.0%
65.1%11.7%
9.4%
5.1%
3.5%
8.5%
61.8%
2
Latin American Share of Oil World Reserves Latin American oil reserves are becoming increasingly important
Source: Internacional Energy Agency Reference Scenario
Net Oil and Oil Products Availability
Mbpd
Latin America (LA)
Russia
AsiaUnited StatesOECD(- Mexico)
Projected growth in oilproduction anddemand suggestsbalance andindependence of supply from politicallyunstable regions
3
Ability to produce non-conventional heavy oil will play an increasing role in LA
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
Gas Rich Region with limited infrastructureProven Reserves as of January 1, 2005
14.5 Tcf
10.9 Tcf
Brazil
Argentina
Perú
Mexico
Venezuela
26.1 TcfBolivia
11.7 Tcf
17.7Tcf
151.9 Tcf 19.4 Tcf
Trinidad
2005 GasProven ReservesWorld:179,8 T m3 / 6,350 TcfSouth and Central America:7,02 T m3 / 247,9 Tcf
4
0.41 T m3
4.3 T m30.55 T m3
0.31 T m3
0.33 T m3
0.74 T m3
0.50 T m3But:::: Will require increasing energy
integration and::: Substantial investments in
infrastructure covering greatdistances and environmetallysensative regions
Ample gas reserves will allow for:::: Regional growth in consumption
substituting some demand for oil::: Higher exports of liquids
Consumption of oil as % of Production 2005
Source: BP Statistical Review 2006; EIA; INE/BO; Superintendence de Hidrocarburos de Bolivia
15%18%
80%
58% 53%42%
27%
106%
Brazil Bolivia Oil Argentina Mexico Colombia Ecuador Venezuela Bolivia Gas
5
Relative importance of oil sector varies widely among the main players in the region affecting legislation, pricing and curbing integration prospects
87%
60%
36%
26%
15%
9%7%
Venezuela Ecuador Bolívia (gas) Colômbia México Argentina Brasil
Exports of oil as % of total Goods Exports 2005 (in US$)
International prices affect each country's trade balance differently
Source: BP Review 2006; EIA; INE/BO
6
Bolívia (oil)
11%
Domestic Pricing is also affected by the relative importance of oil sector
Subsidized prices reduce financing possibilities
1.17
0.93
0.67
0.61
0.55
0.46
0.38
0.03
September 2006 (in US$ per liter)
Venezuela Ecuador Bolivia Argentina México Colombia Peru Brazil
Source: ARPEL
7
• Countries that have recently changedor have manifested a desire to change legislation towards higher Government Participation in production and revenues: Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia
• Countries that are in the process of liberalizing legislation to encourage foreign participation: Colombia & Peru
• Countries that have consolidated reforms: Argentina (w/ price controls) & Brazil (w/o price controls);
• Mexico remains the most closed oil economy but there are indications that a move towards opening to investment is possible.
Regulatory Challenges – Recent Trends
8
Bio-fuel usage in OECD Countries will benefit LA
Global warming, energy security and/or cost effectiveness are
encouraging renewable fuels with two important initiatives: (i) ethanol and (ii) biodiesel. Both can be
produced and consumed in Latin America advantageously.
Production of biofuels in LA will also contribute to displace production of liquids increasing export availability.
9
Latin America offers excellent resources to expand agricultural production
Africa Latin America Asia OCDE World
More than 3 times the average world per capita water availability
3,966 4,050
24,97311,196
7,055
Nearly half world sugar cane production Nearly 1/3 world main oil seed production
Availability per capita (m3/year)
Higher Potable Water availability per capita
Million Metric Tons
World South and Central Americaand Caribbean
Soybeans, Groundnuts, Sunflower, Rape Seed, Cotton Seed
95
359
World South and Central Americaand Caribbean
631
1,328
Sugar cane production
Million Metric Tons
10
Original drivers were energy security and economic attractiveness;
Today environmental benefits are also considered.
CNG
ETHANOL
GASOLINE
Source: MME, BEN 2006
120000
140000
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
During this period, ethanol utilization saved 644 million ton. of CO2 emission
1972
Brazil is the 1st country to reap benefits from Ethanol
Fuel demand for Otto Cycle Vehicles160000
10000
80000
60000
40000
20000
01000
BEP
11
Accumulated effective economy:1 Billion boe ~US$ 52 bi
Brazil35%
Ethanol market may double its size with growth potential in all sugar cane producing countries
North and Central America
37%
South America38%
Asia16.2%
Europe9.8%
Current Market Distribution of World Consumption
Ethanol global market is 46.5 Billion LitersEthanol as a Fuel is 30.6 Billion Liters, or 67% of total ethanol production
Today the ethanol consumption is 2,6% of gasoline MKTIncreasing ethanol to 10% of gasoline will represent 118 Billion Lt
12
Raw Material Energy output / energy inputWheatCorn
Sugar Beet
Sugar Cane (under Brazilian Production Conditions)
1.21.3 – 1.8
1.9
8.3
Today : Sugar cane has the highest energy output/input ratio
TomorrowLignocelluloses Biomass technology will double ethanol per ha. yield
1 metric ton of sugar cane
Molasses yields only 85 L of ethanol,
But
Cane bagasse yields 185 L of ethanolBase calculation
13
2nd Generation Biodiesel (BTL) will expand biodiesel prospectsApplication of Fischer-Tropsch gas to liquids technology
Biomass Solid FuelsGasification Syngas
Sequestered CO2
Fisher-TropschConversion
Waxy SyncrudeProduct Work-up
Naphtha
Diesel
BTL also nicknamed “Designer Fuel”- because fuel specifications can be adjusted to engine requirements altering form and length of molecules
14
BTL uses whole plant, thus requiring less land area per unit of energy produced compared to biodiesel or ethanol
Principal Conclusions, Hurdles and Challenges
• Latin America is in a privileged position regarding oil reserves, and energy independence;
• Use of natural gas prospects are encouraging and should contributeto increase liquid fossil fuel exports availability but integration and financial issues are a main concern;
• Land, water and human resource availability and biodiversity place Central and South America and Caribbean in a privileged position to use and supply OECD countries with renewable fuels, and also further liberating liquid fossil fuels for export.
• Heavy oil production technology development will expand LA reserve growth possibilities;
• Successful Doha Round Negotiations are essential to permit greater trade of agricultural commodities andincrease agricultural productivity considering comparative advantages;
• Technological breakthroughs in enzyme technology for the use of Lignocelluloses biomass and BTL;
• Further progress in regional integration.
But the main hurdles and challenges are:
José Sergio Gabrielli de AzevedoCEO and PresidentFebruary, 2007
CERAWeek 2007 Latin America Perspectives and Opportunities