Latin%2bamerica Argentina 1

8/13/2019 Latin%2bamerica Argentina 1

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ARGENTINA

Oligarchic Democracy (1880-1916)

Landowners rule

Argentina had huge potential: but neededcapital and labor

Capital: provided by British investment

Open immigration policy: huge wave ofmigrants from Europe

Economic boom: Argentinas economytop ten in the world

Agro-export model: grains, meat.


2/22

Deepened democracy and

dictatorship (1917-1943) Radical party created by disaffected middle-

class (wanted political voice)

Saez Pena law: universal male suffrage,compulsory voting. (but half of adult males left

out because foreign-born). UCR becomes electorally invincible

Yrigoyen (UCR) main political figure of the time Focused on middle class; sidelined working class

Opposition to Yrigoyen across political spectrum(workers, socialists, landowners, military)

Class warfare: labor activism vs. antilabor hysteria!


3/22

Cont.

1930 coup detat

1930s: Infamous decade (fraudulentelections)

Military sought to create a neofacistsystem and stop class warfare

They viewed democracy as the problem

Class consciousness growing, workerslacked political representation.

Enter Juan Peron!


4/22

Rise and Fall of Juan Peron (1943-

55)

Juan Peron: military colonel

Uses secretary of labor post to buildpolitical support. How?

Pushing for wage increases and benefits

Representing workers vis--vis business

1946 elections: Peron against alliance of

parties Peron wins. Implements ISI, redistributes

income to workers


5/22

Cont.

Eva Peron: headed foundation dispensing cashand benefits Anti-oligarchic rhetoric

Developed fanatical, loyal following

Evan-Peron: formidable political tandem

1951: Peron reelected Authoritarian measures, such as closing opposition newspapers

Nationalizes foreign industry

Enemies of peronism develop in sections of military Peron attempts to politicize the military

Peronism: anti-Church, alienating army conservatives.


6/22

Impossible game (1955-66)

Ultimatum to Peron: resign or face civil war

Peronists commanded majority support amongpopulation (40-60%)

Impossible game: military unwilling to acceptdemocracy led by Peronists; citizens unwilling toaccept democracy without Peronists

Elections excluded Peronists, when they wereincluded military would stage a coup

UCR governments lacked legitimacy Peron in exile. Labor union strikes fostered

ungovernability


7/22

Military rule and Perons return

Military proclaims an Argentina revolution:heightened restrictions on civil rights, goal isorder and stability

From exile, Peron inspires leftists youths to

rebel: creation of Montoneros and ShirtlessCommand

Political violence rises, labor union, formergenerals leaders killed

Military allows Peronists to contest 1973elections but without Peron!

Perons puppet (Hector Campora) runs and wins


8/22

Military rule: El Proceso (1976-83)

1976: the coup to end all coups

Goal: establish a Process of National Reconstruction:reeducate populace in morality, uprightness andefficiency

Unprecedented repression of dissidents, democrats,leftists

9,000 to 20,000 disappeared (i.e. killed)

Growing mismanagement of the economy (debt and

inflation) Falklands war: a failed attempt to regain lost legitimacy

Argentina loses war, and the military loses credibility.


9/22

Interests Groups

Argentine Rural Society: reactionary

organization, supported coups

Argentine Industrial Union: antiperonist,

promarket, protrade

General Labor Confederation: most

powerful labor union in LA (Peronist)

Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo

Piqueteros(movement of the unemployed)


10/22

Parties

Radical party (UCR)

Advocated political and civil rights,

Failed presidencies of Alfonsin and De la RUa havedoomed the partys prospects

Now in disarray (2% of vote ni 2003 elections) Peronist party

Economic nationalism, pro-labor

Effective political machine due to patronagenetworks (public employment, public goods)

Movement rather than modern party (soughtabsolute power, did not consider opposition partieslegitimate, etc..)

Undefined ideology: right-wing and left-wing


11/22

Raul Alfonsin (1983-89)

Promotes human rights

Cut military spending, civilianized the military

Believer in democracy: with democracy one iseducated, one eats, one is sheltered

Faced the carapintadauprising made concessions tomilitary (Due Obedience law, Full Stop law)

Neglected the economy

Faced an obstructionist, Peronist-controlled congress

Economy out of control (huge budget deficits, etc..),huge socioeconomic crisis

but democracy stood firm.


12/22

Carlos Menem (1990-99)

Peronist leader of authoritarian tendencies.Campaign slogan: follow me

Centralized control in the executive (delegativedemocracy);

Assault on judicial independence; extensive useof decrees

Implemented Convertibility Law to stop inflation

Boost of popularity: why? Econ stability

Radical program of market reforms(privatization, free trade, limited the power oflabor unions)


13/22

Menem, 94-

Seeks Constitutional reform (1994), bulliesopposition to allow for reelection and wins

Mexico tequila crisis: economic downturn in

Argentina Government spending (and deficits) out ofcontrol, used for political clientelism

Unemployment creeps up, growth falters

Menems political capital diminished Rivalry with Eduardo Duhalde (BA governor)

Thinks about re-reelection (third term)


14/22

De la Rua (1999-2000)

FREPASO-Radical Alliance elected to office.

Inherited an economy in deep trouble

Unable to reform the economy, dependent on

IMF funds Government bribed senators:

Unwilling to ditch Convertibility formula:economy went on a freefall, foreign debt

skyrocketed. Corralito established: Argentines unable to take

out their savings from banks


15/22

Causes of the 2001 crisis

Convertibility formula: 1 peso=1 dollar

exchange rate Successful in containing hyperinflation.

Unsustainable in long term

Not recommended by the IMF!!

Required strong fiscal discipline

Hurt Argentine exports, and competitiveness

Ticking time bomb

Political costs of devaluation were high

Fiscal deficits

Growing debt


16/22

Political causes

Menem sought reelection (a second time!)

No support from his own party, peronist governors

President-without-a-party condition

Economic reforms by the wayside Spending race between governors and the president

Fiscal discipline out the window!

Increase in the national debt

Politicians didnt seem to care: politics trumpedeconomics

Some of the reforms of the previous 8 years undone!

Economy now highly vulnerable to economic shocks


17/22

De La Ruas Radical party government

199-2001

Unprepared for the job

Lack of expertise, few economists

Unwilling to adjust to new economic situation

Party advocated more govt spending!

Party isolated president


18/22

2000-2001

Argentina declares largest debt default in history

2001: economy contracts by 14%!!

De la Rua resigns amid social turmoil:cacerolazos (pot-banging); piqueteros(unemployed movement)

Massive social upheaval: que se vayan todosthrow all politicians out

New transitional president chosen: Duhalde

2002: poverty rises to 53% of population,Argentina becomes a typical Latin Americancountry


19/22

2003 elections

Peronist Nestor Kirschner chosenpresident

Radical party evaporates with 3% of vote

Reopens human rights issue

Adopts a confrontational stance versusforeign companies, IMF

Good economic growth 2003-2005 but Argentina has not started to pay

back its foreign debt


20/22

Nestor Kirschner: 2003-

Left wing Peronist

Repudiates neoliberal econ. Policies

Benefited from high economic growth

Reopened human rights cases

Foreign policy

Closer relations with Venezuela, Cuba Distancing from United States

First lady is the presidential candidate for

2007.


21/22

Cristina Kirschner

President from 2007 on.

Confrontational stance vis--vis United

States

Links with Chavez: suitcase scandal.

Increasing inflation, slower growth

Confrontation with farmers: controversialexport tax

Popularity down from 70% to 30%

End of the Kirschner political dynasty?


22/22

Explaining Argentinas political

instability

Social mobilization running ahead of political

institutionalization

Collective action problem: defense of narrow

interest, inability to reach agreements(factionalism within labor, business, and parties)

The negative influence of Peronism: movement

with hegemonic ambitions / nondemocratic

Absence of a conservative party (thus the rich

oligarchy resorts to the military)

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Latin%2bamerica Argentina 1

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