L i sa Garc ía Bedo l la
U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y
LATINO POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT AND THE FUTURE OF CALIFORNIA POLITICS
FRAMING
WHY I T MATTERS
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Obama's Winning Coalition in
November 2012:
“Women and Non-Whites”
Demography seen as destiny
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PROJECTED CALIFORNIA ADULT POPULATION, 2010-2050
White, Non-Latino Black Mixed Race Asian Latino
Source: California State Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, Report P-3, “State and County Total Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity and Detailed Age.”
The Engagement Gap
SOURCES: Likely voters – 2014 PPIC Statewide Poll; Population – U.S. Census
NOVEMBER 2012 ELECTION
MIDTERM ELECTION TURNOUT, U.S. CITIZEN POPULATION, 1978-2010
California’s New Electorate, 2030
MIDTERM ELECTION TURNOUT, U.S. CITIZEN POPULATION, 1978-2010
REFRAMING WHAT I F WE SAW NON -PART ICIPAT ION AS
RAT IONAL?
MARIACHI IS NOT ENOUGH
OUR CONSERVATIVE IS NOT YOUR CONSERVATIVE
WE ARE NOT ALL THE SAME
GENDER MATTERS
Gender matters for all groups
65%
54%
65%
56%
69%
59%
70%
59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
White, Non Latino Latino Black Asian
California Registration Rates, by Ethnorace and Gender
Male Female
SOURCE: Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplements, November 2012
THE REVERSE-SALLY FIELD EFFECT
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
TOWARD A LAT INO-RELEVANT POL ICY PROGRAM
IMMIGRANT INTEGRATION PROGRAM
BILINGUALISM FOR ALL
FULLY RESOURCED EDUCATION, CRADLE TO COLLEGE
CULTURALLY APPROPRIATE HEALTH CARE ACCESS
LIVING WAGE/WORKER PROTECTIONS
WEALTH TAXED LIKE WAGES
CIVIC EDUCATION THAT FOSTERS EMPOWERMENT
LATINOS: CANARIES IN THE COAL MINE
• Many self-selected to be here
• Incorporated into a non-participatory culture
• U.S. electorate is made, not given
• Latino voters have gotten the message that politics is not for
“us”
• Disengagement reflects the state of our democracy
• How much lower can we go before our system becomes
illegitimate?
• Status quo hurts all Americans
THANK YOU!
LGARCIAB@BERKELEY .EDU