MEASURING INTERCONNECTED
ECONOMIES:
LAUNCH OF 2021 EDITION OF
OECD ICIO AND TIVA
DATABASES
17 November 2021
Andy Wyckoff, Director, OECD Directorate for Science,
Technology and Innovation
1990s
• Harmonised national I-O tables• 10 countries
2000s
• Domestic and import tables
• IOT ind x ind (1993 SNA/ISIC Rev.3)
2013-
2017
• ICIO (1993 SNA/ISIC Rev.3)
• Time series ICIOs
2018-
• ICIO (2008 SNA/ISIC Rev.4)
• 64 countries
2
A brief history of Input-Output at OECD
OECD Main new applications
Technology diffusion (embodied R&D) CO2 embodied in trade
Co2 embodied in trade, Vertical specialization, Jobs in foreign demand
Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators, Trade in Employment, Carbon footprints
Projection modelsMNE activities in trade
Building on accumulated knowledge: academia (Leontief et al); experts from national, regional and international organisations (SNA recommendations etc.)
• Long annual time-series of ICIO tables and indicators1995 to 2018
• 66 countries + RoW + region groups– All 38 OECD countries, all G20, all European
Union and now, all ASEAN countries (new: Myanmar and Lao PDR)
• 45 industries (previously 36) + industry aggregates
• Underlying format– 2008 SNA (with 2015 SNA benchmark revisions)
– ISIC Rev.4 based industry breakdown
3
… and now: ICIO and TiVA 2021
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50.0
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ICIO databases, total number of cells,
millions
New industries to be published in TiVA database
TiVA 2021 TiVA 2018
Description
Agriculture, hunting, forestry
Fishing
Chemical and chemical products
Pharmaceuticals
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
Water supply; sewerage, waste management and
remediation activities
Land transport and transport via pipelines
Water transport
Air transport
Warehousing and support activities for transportation
Postal and courier activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support services
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other service activities
Arts, entertainment, recreation and other service
activities
Electricity, gas, water supply, sewerage, waste and
remediation services
Transportation and storage
Other business sector services
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
Chemicals and pharmaceutical products
TRADE IN VALUE ADDED
6
The classic GVC indicator – backward linkages
Foreign value added share of gross exports, 1995-2018
Steady rise from 1995 to 2008.
Slight increase since dip in 2016, but in 2018, backward linkages, in general, lower than last peak of 2011-2012.
China: peak 2004-2007 (24%). Since 2011 (post crisis peak), decline from 22% to 18%
EU27: (as single economy) steady rise from 9% in mid-1990s to 16% in recent years. Fall from 2011-2012 peak of 17%.
USA: After pre- and post-crisis peaks of 12%-13%, by 2018, Foreign VA in exports, at 9%, back to shares of late 1990s.
ASEAN: (as single economy): Slight rise since 2010 30% to 32%
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Backward linkages in GVCs
China
EU27
USA
ASEAN
World (unwtd av.)
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A demand perspective
Share of domestic value added meeting foreign final demand, 1995-2018
China: peak 2006-2007 (25%). Now below 15%, the share in 1995. Increase in output meeting domestic demand.
EU27: (as single economy) steady rise from 10.5% in mid-1990s to 17% in recent years.
USA: Relatively stable in recent years: 9%-10%. Above lows of about 7% in 2002-03.
ASEAN: (as single economy): After peak of 39% in 1998 (Asian crisis) steady fall to about 30% in recent years.
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ASEAN
EU27
China
USA
%
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Motor vehicles – meeting demand at home and abroad
Motor vehicle industry value added (blue) and other industries’ value added meeting final demand for Motor vehicles (orange), as a % of total economy value added, 2018
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12.0 Other industries' value added meeting foreignfinal demand for Motor vehicles
Other industries' value added meeting domesticfinal demand for Motor vehicles
Motor vehicle industry value added meetingforeign final demand
Motor vehicle industry value added meetingdomestic final demand
THE VERSATILITY OF THE ICIO: BEYOND TIVA
• Analyses of GVCs (Industry and Trade)
• Numerous Trade policy papers (Trade)
• Trade in Employment (Industry and Trade)
• Embodied CO2 and material flows (Environment)
• Role of MNEs (Industry and Trade)
• Agriculture and GVCs (Agriculture)
• Steel and GVCs (Steel)
• Shipbuilding (Shipbuilding)
• Tourism and GVCs (Tourism)
• Digital economy (Digital Economy Policy)
• Responsible Business Conduct (Foreign Investment)
• OECD Country Studies (Economics)
• OECD Skills outlook (Education)
• Role of SMEs in GVCs (SMEs and Trade)10
Multiple uses of ICIO, TiVA and I-O analysis at OECD
11
Embodied CO2 emissions in trade
Source: Estimation based on OECD’s Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Database (2021) and IEA (2021): http://oe.cd/io-co2
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, demand-based and production-based, OECD v. non-OECD
Updated indicators now available 1995-2018
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Gt
CO
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Demand-based (OECD)
Production-based (OECD)
Demand-based (non-OECD)
Production-based (non-OECD)
Net-exports of embodied CO2
by non-OECD countries
Net-imports of embodied CO2by OECD countries
12
Embodied CO2 emissions in trade
Source: Estimation based on OECD’s Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Database (2021) and IEA (2021)
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion per capita, 2018, demand-based v. production-based, tonnes CO2
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oduc
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USA EU27 Worldtotal
China India
1995
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OECD Worldtotal
Non-OECD
1995
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Trade in Employment (TiM)
OECD Employment sustained by foreign final demand, by region, as a % of total employment, 2018
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LUX
IRL
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LA
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EUSW
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RC
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ITA
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KO
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AN
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TUR
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RA
US
JPN
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LU
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North America EU27 East and S.E. Asia Rest of the World 1995
Database update, 1995-2018, coming soon
Analytical AMNE databaseForeign affiliates’ reliance on domestic sourcing
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Source: OECD Analytical AMNE databasehttp:/oe.cd/gvc-mne
International sourcing more orientated towards manufactured goods
Domestic sourcing more orientated towards commercial services
Database update, 1995-2018, coming soon
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Other ICIO-based contributions to discussions on meeting
the SDGs ...
Joint work: ILO, IOM, OECD and UNICEF under “Alliance 8.7”
Launched at Paris Peace Forum 12 November 2019 by OECD Secretary General
Preliminary estimates. A key impact was advocacy of the potentialof using I-O analyses to inform policy makers on issues related to Child Labour and GVCs e.g. Child labour“hidden” in upstream in domestic supply chains.
WHAT NEXT?
• Post launch:
– Nowcasts to 2019 ...
– user feedback improvements etc.
– Country notes
• Additional countries
– 5 African countries: Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Nigeria and Senegal (OECD/WTO/UNECA Africa-TiVA project)
– Jordan (project with UNIDO)
• Alignment with other MRIO/TiVA initiatives
– ECLAC: LAC IOTs; Eurostat: Figaro; ADB: Asian SUTs/IOTs17
ICIO and TiVA, 2022 and beyond
• Methodology better aligned with the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) (e.g. Eurostat and OECD Air Emissions Accounts)
• Inclusion of other GHGs:
– Fugitive emissions from fuel
– Industrial processes (CO2):
minerals, chemicals, metals, etc.
– Emissions from Industrial processes and Agriculture;
– Addition of methane.
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GHG emissions embodied in final demand - Next steps
Source: Secretariat estimate based on UNFCCC and EDGAR
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Employment and GVCs, gender dimension
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Male Female Male Female Male Female
Total Industry Business services
USA
Foreign final demandExports
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Male Female Male Female Male Female
Total Industry Business services
EU
Foreign final demand
Exports
Employment embodied in exports and in foreign demand as a % of total employment, by gender, 2018
In OECD ICIO tables: cross-border trade and non-resident household expenditure are separated insights into international tourism and GVCs
Contribution of non-resident household expenditure to total exports, 2015, %
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Tourism and GVCs
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IRL
BR
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N
Direct domestic VA Indirect domestic VA Foreign VA 2005 (Total)
Insights into origin of value added in non-resident household purchases of final goods and services e.g. How much comes from upstream (indirect) domestic sources and foreign sources?
OECD Tourism working paper: “Providing new OECD evidence on tourism trade in value added” (2019)
Releases of new ICIO-based updated databases
• TiVA core indicators (3-dims) √
• ICIO tables (http://oe.cd/icio) √
• TiVA VA origin cubes (4-dims) √
• Harmonised national IOTs (http://oe.cd/i-o) √
• Trade in Embodied CO2 (TECO2) indicators (http://oe.cd/io-co2) √
Updates coming soon
• Trade in Employment (TiM) indicators (http://oe.cd/io-emp)
• Analytical AMNE database (http://oe.cd/gvc-mne)
In the pipeline
• Trade in Employment by workforce characteristics (age, gender, skills)
• Direct purchases by non-residents (Tourism and GVCs)
• Trade in Embodied Greenhouse Gases i.e. beyond CO2 indicators