Leadership in Uncertain Times

Mandeep Singh

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• Why a question mark?• Am I to ask the question?• Will I be asked to answer?• Why in the corner?• Why only one? One question only?• Why black on white?

Its always been an ‘uncertain times’• 9/11• Gulf War• Y2K Bug• Cold war• 1973 Oil shock• Pearl Harbor - WW II• Great depression• WW I

Nothing new ever happens if you consider the time past immemorial

What are ‘uncertain times’?

• Pace of change more rapid.• Its not only economic but even social changes

that have their impact.• Factors impacting outcome – Seemingly unrelated events impact outcomes

more than ever before.– Impact felt faster.

Changing pace of change

Uncertainty

• Triggers of uncertainty. The black swan syndrome.

• Chaos theory.• Impact of technology.• Globalisation.• Demographic shift.

How to prepare for uncertain times

The traditional approaches are – Anticipate.• Things you can foresee.Adapt.• Things that you cant foresee.In either case, ACT and act fast.

The OODA Loop

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Uncertain times

• The millennials.• Impact of technology.• Information overload.• Globalisation.• Social media.

Uncertainty–Leadership Correlation

Level of uncertainty

Poss

ible

opti

ons/

out

com

es

Level 1

• Relatively simple view of future• One of two obvious options• Leadership – Traditional

SWOTBenchmarkingCompetency-based

Summary of “Industrial” Leadership

• Framed by level 1 uncertainty• These industrial age leadership theories have been:• management-oriented• Focused on the leader• goal-achievement-dominated• male-oriented• utilitarian and materialistic in ethical perspective• Rationalistic

– Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century

Uncertainty–Leadership Correlation

Level of uncertainty

Poss

ible

opti

ons/

out

com

es

Level 1

Level 2

Alternate futures• Mutually exclusive and collectively

exhaustive• One will occur• Leadership - Qualitative decision

analysis

Uncertainty–Leadership Correlation

Level of uncertainty

Poss

ible

opti

ons/

out

com

es

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Range of futuresNot mutually exclusive• Leadership Strategy -Decision

tree/cost-benefit analysis

Uncertainty–Leadership Correlation

Level of uncertainty

Poss

ible

opti

ons/

out

com

es

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4

• True ambiguity- The future is unknown and unknowable

• Leadership strategy – Work backwards

‘White Water’ Conditions

• Conditions are full of surprises• Complex systems tend to produce novel

problems• Conditions feature events that are “messy”

and • Events are often very costly

Working Backwards

• Start with a strategy• Aligning strategy with the organizational

mission and values• Assumptions about the future to support a

defined strategy• ‘Wargame’ likelihood of assumptions

coming out to be true• Hedging bets on the outcome

How to prepare for uncertain times

• Contingency planning. Remember - No plan survives contact.

• Stay connected- communicate.• Informal approach.• Exploit technology.• Manage information.

Nirbhaya rapist releasedDiesel SUVs registration suspended

Paris accord

Green signal to stalled projects

Start ups the way to be

Economy to grow 8 percent

GST bill stalled. Again.

Three more bills need to be passed after GST Bill

Indian growth projections faulty

Public spending at all time low

Social sector ignored

JAM – the focus of NDA government

Sonia Gandhi appears in court

DDCA scandal. Financial irregularities surface

AAP demands Jaitley’s head

Modi tells his cabinet to go after the opposition

Arunacahal Assembly proceedings stalled

Japan to finance Bullet trainIIP figures disappoint

Fed rates cut

Oil prices not likely to fall further

Syria peace process gets UN backing

Executive process the only way out

Indo-Pak talks back on rail

UP elections due in 2017

BJP appoints new Kerala unit head

Nirbhaya rapist releasedDiesel SUVs registration suspended

Paris accord

Green signal to stalled projects

Start ups the way to be

Economy to grow 8 percent

GST bill stalled. Again.

Three more bills need to be passed after GST Bill

Indian growth projections faulty

Public spending at all time low

Social sector ignored

JAM – the focus of NDA government

Sonia Gandhi appears in court

DDCA scandal. Financial irregularities surface

AAP demands Jaitley’s head

Modi tells his cabinet to go after the opposition

Arunacahal Assembly proceedings stalled

Japan to finance Bullet trainIIP figures disappoint

Fed rates cut

Oil prices not likely to fall further

Syria peace process gets UN backing

Executive process the only way out

Indo-Pak talks back on rail

UP elections due in 2017

BJP appoints new Kerala unit head

The simulation exercise

• Ravinder was the only one who made money in the simulation exercise. How ?

• He kept abreast of the news. • Observe how seemingly unrelated events

occur. Join the dots, and you get to know with a reasonable degree of assurance – what to do

What do leaders need to do?• A strong effective and skill sets of others to get more done

inleader in today’s uncertain economy shares the leadership role with others members of the team. Stepping out from the formal leadership role, it is an informal team approach where the lead role shifts by the subject at hand. It allows the organization to tap the excitement a way that drives an even better outcome.

• By building trusted relationships within an organization through accessibility, transparency, communications and actions the shared leadership concept achieves a much higher sense of commitment and meaning to those involved.

Colleen BrownPresident / CEOFisher Communications

What do leaders need to do?There are lots of effective styles. Yet they should

be enabling in order to succeed and generate leverage. Leaders need to demonstrate a steady hand. It’s easy to worry and lose focus in a bad economy.

Steve McConnellManaging PartnerNBBJ

What do leaders need to do?There are lots of effective styles. Yet they should

be enabling in order to succeed and generate leverage. Leaders need to demonstrate a steady hand. It’s easy to worry and lose focus in a bad economy.

Hiring the right people really matters, and really counts. After that, as a leader, you need to stay out of the way. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you, and then just lead through the team. In a sense, the whole organization must lead together.

Steve McConnellManaging PartnerNBBJ

Chris WallacePresident / CEOTexas Chamber of Commerce

Requisites for effective leadership

• Manage information.• Shorten your OODA loop.• Involve the entire team.• Enable the team.• Accessibility.• Communications.• Integrity.

Transformative Leadership

Transformative leadership occurs when one or more people engage with others in such a way that leaders and followers raise one another to higher levels of motivations and morality.

Burns. Transformative Leadership

Leadership in Self-Organizing Systems

• Define the boundaries• Invite diversity• Create transforming

exchanges• Serve the system

• There are no set piece strategies or plans that will win.

• You have to chart your own course. And select what suits you and your organization.

• Who follows change, will survive.• Who does not, will perish.• Who causes change, will lead.

Thank you