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Leading in Difficult & Uncertain Times The Battle of Britain Stephen Carver FAPM School of Management Cranfield University
Leading in
Difficult & Uncertain Times The Battle of Britain
Stephen Carver FAPM School of Management
Cranfield University
“Eagles
may soar high
but…….
weasels don’t get sucked
into jet engines”
Leading in Difficult & Uncertain Times
Don’t want to
do
Want to do
Planned Unplanned
Strategic Projects &
Programmes
Spontaneous Adventures
Compliance Projects &
Programmes
Crisis Events
Leading in Difficult & Uncertain Times
68% Project Failure Rate
Most projects and programmes are doomed to fail....
Flying Analogy
Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger III
Chaos Complex or
Complicated?
UK Airways System
PPM – Maturity Levels
1
2
3
4
5
Ad Hoc Disorganised, accidental success
Minimal Some process, inconsistent success
Compliant Standardised, more predictable
Competitive Controlled and measured processes, results more in line with plans
World Class Continuous process improvement , success is normal
1
2
3
4
5
Competitive: provides source of competitive advantage, focused, metrics determine areas for improvement, supports business strategy.
Compliant: follows industry-accepted norms, improvements sporadic, process-focused, cost of failure significant, little strategic contribution
Minimal: tasked with ‘not messing up’, some use of standards, reactive, high cost of failure, negative strategic contribution.
Ad hoc: unreliable delivery, very high cost of failure, strongly negative strategic contribution
World-class: redefines delivery in the industry, automatically improving, very hard to imitate by competitors, drives business strategy.
Limit of process based approach
PPM – Strategic Advantage Strategic Contribution
Structural Dimension
Dynamic Dimension
Low
High
High Low
Complex
Dynamic
Agile Project
Programme
Two Dimensions of Complexity
The Battle of Britain
1940
Huge number of great planes Huge numbers of pilots
Lots of experience Innovative tactics
Morale high On a roll
Limited number of pilots Limited experience Traditional tactics
Morale low Defeatist
1940
Large number of rubbish planes
Complex/Dynamic More with less
Hugh Dowding Head of RAF Fighter Command
Fighter Command System
Deals with
Structural
Complexity
Deals with
Dynamic
Complexity
Hugh Dowding Head of Fighter Command
Keith Park
Leigh Mallory
Approach
Engage in pure fighter raids
Engage bomber raids after they bomb
Big Wing standing patrols
Shoot down lots of planes
Pursue stragglers over the sea
Pilots are a individualistic risk taking heroes
Douglas Bader
Approach
Do not engage pure fighter raids
Engage bomber raids before they bomb
Scramble early – hit and run
Aim to break up formations
Do not pursue stragglers over the sea
Pilots are part of an integrated team
The Luftwaffe: strategically incoherent
• Bomb Ports
• Bomb Factories
• Bomb RAF
Goering
• Bomb London
Hitler expects to terrorise and cow the people of this mighty
city… Little does he know the spirit of the British nation, or the tough
fibre of the Londoners.
The Blitz
Now Park could really do his stuff …
So What?
• Have a clear vision/strategy • Do more with less - focus • Turn on the radar! • Know where you/the “enemy” are • Have simple/flexible/agile systems • Bend/make the rules • Communicate and integrate... • Lead/empower/trust • Embrace risk & complexity • But...
“There is nothing more difficult to arrange, more doubtful of success and more
dangerous to carry through, than initiating change.
The change leader makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old order and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who would prosper under the
new.
Leadership of Change
Structural Dimension
Dynamic
Low
High
High Low
Complex
Dynamic
Agile Project
Programme
Socio Political Complexity
“If ever any one man won the Battle of Britain,
Keith Park did.
I don’t believe it is recognised how much
this one man, with his leadership, his calm judgment and his skill, did to save not only
this country, but the world.”
Chief of the Royal Air Force
February 1947
Lord Tedder
Thank you!
