2. PLATINUM SPONSORSGOLD SPONSORSSILVER SPONSORS 3. Phil LedgerwoodApplication DeveloperNetchemia, LLCwww.Netchemia.comTwitter: @pledgerwoodLinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/philledgerwood 4. The Estimation Process 5. Lets Play a Game How long does ittake you to go to thestore to buybananas? Traffic? Accident? Johnson Countymoms talking inaisle? Person in front ofyou pays with checkand has no id? Yes, we have no 6. Your Estimates SuckBecause They are based on your view of your ownproductivity. They assume all unknowns take zero time. You have never written that software before.People are terrible estimators. 7. Stopping the FoolishnessHere Come Metrics! 8. Metrics are AwesomeBecause They are based on your actual productivity. They factor in unknowns, divergent sizes, andwhen Steve goes on vacation, but he didnt tellanyone he was going on vacation until like twodays before he did, and hes gone for two weeksand its like, oh great, thanks a lot, Steve. You can identify impediments visually.They are eerily accuratebecause Math. 9. Estimates vs. Metrics Estimates Based on guessing Deviate over longtimespans False sense ofsecurity Can easily begamed Take a long time togenerate Up for debate Pretty much useless Metrics Based on actuals Become moreaccurate over longtimespans Cold, hard reality Cant be gamed Take almost no timeto generate Not up for debate Ignore at your peril 10. Scatterplot DiagramThe Control Chart 11. Lead Time Record the date something enters yourworkflow and the date something leaves it. This amount of time is called Lead Time End points need some agreed definition When an item is ready for work? When you start work on an item? When an item is ready for release? When an item is actually deployed? Typical Lead Time: Ready for Work >>Deployed 12. Control Chart Data Dates (or day # of project) along the X axis Number of days along Y axis Lead times are plotted on chart as items arecompleted Median Lead Time Standard Deviations Percentages of Lead Time values (ex. 75% ofour lead times are 10 days or less) 13. What Can This Tell Us? How fast weredelivering The likelihood of anitem taking a certainamount of time Predictability When events occurthat screw everythingup Trends in velocity 14. Hey Lets See One 15. CFD (But you could probably figure that out)Cumulative Flow Diagram 16. Value Stream How things get from idea to delivered For developers, it usually looks something likethis: Analysis (Acceptance Criteria) Design (Automated Tests) Code Test Deploy To Do, Doing, and Done is ok for chorelists, but not so good for organization workflowmanagement 17. Cumulative Flow Data Dates (or day # of project) along the X axis Number of work items along Y axis Plot stacked series of # of items in each valuestream state from day to day 18. What Can This Tell Us? Horizontal distance: Lead Time Vertical distance: Work in Progress (WIP) Slope of Top Line: Average arrival rate Slope of Bottom Line: Average completion rate 19. LOL WUT? Where are our bottlenecks? Where are things flowing smoothly? What is our predictability? Do we have too much WIP? Are we startingmore than were finishing? 20. And I Care About This Why? Improvement comes by managing flow, nottrying to get faster. Phil Ledgerwood, JustNow, 2013 Improve the flow, and the speed will come. How do you improve flow? Limit WIP Give love to the area that needs it most Look at what is skewing the lines and respond 21. Hey Lets See One 22. What Metrics Dont Tell You 23. Metrics Tell You What, But NotWhy Charts and numbers are a catalyst forconversation, not a substitute for it You cannot manage by the numbers Data is not a substitute for cultural analysis,critical thinking, peoples stories, or just beingin the trenches. Data can show you your trends and providefodder for discussions, but productivity andworkflow is ultimately a people issue. 24. Appendix A: The Retrospective Are you tired of retrospectives being free formwhine sessions? I am also tired of it. Yourwhining, I mean. The metrics represent your current state. Ask the team what a better state would looklike. Ask the team for ideas on moving closer tothat state. Pick one, try it, and see if the metrics change. 25. Im Phil Phil Ledgerwood I work at Netchemia Blog: http://thecuttingledge.com/ Twitter (rare): @pledgerwood LinkedIn (often):http://www.linkedin.com/in/philledgerwood Ask me for a business card or something,because, man, Ive got a ton of em.
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