Leander I.S.D.Demographic Update
October 15, 2015
Population & Survey Analysts
L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning
2
Total Enrollment
(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey,
2010-11
Numeric Change
in Student
Enrollment
Fall 2015
to
Fall 2016
(pre-PEIMS Estimates)
3
3
Total Enrollment
(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey,
2010-11
Numeric Change
in Student
Enrollment
Fall 2010
to
Fall 2015
(pre-PEIMS Estimates)
4
4
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Past Growth RatesE
nro
llment
9.12%7.37%
6.83%5.58%
3.60%3.22%
10.22%
3.11%2.15%
2.56%
5
KN as a Percentage
of Total Enrollment
Year
Leander
% KN
Texas
% KN
Leander's
Rank
2008 8.61% 7.65% 6th
2009 8.56% 7.76% 5th
2010 7.96% 7.68% 17th
2011 7.66% 7.58% 22nd
2012 7.45% 7.46% 34th
2013 7.22% 7.57% 38th
2014 6.93% 7.43% 48th
2015 6.82% --- ---* Of 62 Districts with 20,000 or more students
6
Kindergarten Enrollment vs. Births
7
Deceleration in Growth
The past few years’ enrollment reflected a deceleration in growth. Why?
• Fewer younger students
• Younger families moving into fewer new homes
• Lack of regeneration in built-out subdivisions
These changes in trends do NOT mean that growth in Leander I.S.D. is stopping, but, like almost all other large districts, it has slowed.
8
Fastest Growth Districts in Texas(pre-PEIMS Enrollment Estimates, Sept 2015)
Districts with >20,000 Students
Rank District
Sept 2015
Enrollment GrowthPercent
Growth
1 Dallas ISD 164,742 4,489 2.8%
2 Frisco ISD 53,124 3,480 7.0%
3 Katy ISD 72,825 2,495 3.5%
4 Conroe ISD 58,174 1,811 3.2%
5 Lamar CISD 29,576 1,244 4.4%
6 Alvin ISD 22,030 1,164 5.6%
7 Klein ISD 50,395 993 2.0%
8 Northwest ISD 20,800 969 4.9%
9 Grand Prairie ISD 29,245 905 3.2%
10 Fort Worth ISD 86,835 860 1.0%
11 Fort Bend ISD 72,993 841 1.2%
12 Leander ISD 37,042 831 2.3%
13 Cy-Fair ISD 113,822 799 0.7%
14 Humble ISD 40,278 756 1.9%
(Ranked by Number of Students Added)
9
Fastest Growth Districts in Texas(pre-PEIMS Enrollment Estimates, Sept 2015)
Districts with >20,000 Students
Rank District
Sept 2015
Enrollment GrowthPercent
Growth
1 Frisco ISD 53,124 3,480 7.0%
2 Alvin ISD 22,030 1,164 5.6%
3 Northwest ISD 20,800 969 4.9%
4 Lamar CISD 29,576 1,244 4.4%
5 Comal ISD 21,081 754 3.7%
6 Katy ISD 72,825 2,495 3.5%
7 Conroe ISD 58,174 1,811 3.2%
8 Grand Prairie ISD 29,245 905 3.2%
9 Dallas ISD 164,742 4,489 2.8%
10 Pearland ISD 21,034 484 2.4%
11 Leander ISD 37,042 831 2.3%
12 Klein ISD 50,395 993 2.0%
13 Humble ISD 40,278 756 1.9%
14 Keller ISD 34,244 625 1.9%
(Ranked by Percent Growth)
10
Unique Demographic Characteristics
Leander I.S.D.
• Low Economically Disadvantaged population (19.7%)
[58.4% in Texas]
Leander ISD ranked 3rd in Texas
• High STAAR passage rate (83%)
[71.8% in Texas]
Leander ISD ranked 11th in Texas
• Highly educated population (44% have bachelor’s degree) [41% in Austin and 27.6% in Texas]
• High median income level ($81,615) [$63,603 in the Austin metro area]
11
Private and Charter Schools
Current
Enrollment
From LISD in
KN-12th
Enrollment
in 5 yrs.
From LISD in
KN-12th
Austin International School 3yrs-5th 210 8 250 9
Cedar Park Montessori School 18mos-6th 85 18 90 19
Founder's Classical Academy K-11th 495 446 650 585
Gateway College Prep School K-12th 1,150 31 1,389 35
Harbor Christian Academy 1st-12th 45 27 55 33
Harmony School for Political Science K-11th 827 0 1,000 0
Hill Country Christian School PK-12th 600 423 700 494
Holy Family Catholic School PK-8th 509 229 709 319
Leander Charter Academy PK-12th 200 138 300 207
Primrose School at Vista Ridge Inf-K,AS 200 7 200 7
Primrose School at Four Points Inf-K,AS 180 9 185 9
School in the Hills - Steiner Ranch 18 mos-3rd 222 36 180 29
School in the Hills - River Place 18 mos-3rd 250 41
Sterling Classical School PK-12th 302 179 350 207
Summit Christian Academy PK-12th 335 241 450 324
4.61% 5.05%% of LISD residents in private schools
Current Enrollment Projected 5 YearsGrades
opens Jan 2016
12
L.I.S.D. Demographic TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning
Population & Survey Analysts
13
Development Density% of
LISD
Built out 35%
Active 8%
Planned 2%
Undev. 20%
Parks 3%
B.C.N.W.R. 7%B.C.N.W.R.
Targeted 9%
B.C. Preserve 12%
Other Preserve 1%
Water 3%14
14
# %
Subdivisions -
Built-out29,556 29,518 -38 0% --
Subdivisions -
Actively Building2,412 3,224 812 34% 80%
Apartments 3,005 3,119 114 4% 11%
Condo 286 375 89 31% 9%
MHP 26 29 3 12% 0%
Percent of
Growth
Added Students
2014 to 2015Resident
Students
in 2015
Resident
Students
in 2014
Student Growth by
Type of Housing
15
Factors Contributing to New Housing Growth
MUDs and TIRZ Financing
Changing Land Plans
New Comprehensive Plans
Large Mixed Use Developments
Condo-izing of Formerly Planned Multi-Family and Commercial
Availability of Water
Environmental Concerns
Transportation Improvements
16
North side:
Lakeline extension up to FM 2243
San Gabriel Parkway now spans CR 270 to Bagdad
Planned expansion East (to Ronald Reagan) and
West (to future Lakeline)
Improved access within and through subdivisions:
Lakeline extension (Mason Hills)
Goodnight and other arterials (Travisso)
Osage extension (Crystal Falls and Travisso) - planned
East side:
Recent thoroughfares (Hero Way, E Crystal Falls Pkwy, New Hope Dr)
Future extensions (E Crystal Falls Pkwy, New Hope Dr)
Whitestone current widening east of 183A
Leander I.S.D. Future TransportationTransportation Improvements Drive New Housing Construction
17
Largest Growth
Single-Family Developments
2015-2020 2020-2025 2015-2025
4650 Travisso 830 1,139 1,969
4625, 4630,
4675, 4680,
4685
Crystal Falls 1,096 164 1,260
1150 Bryson 407 538 9454605&4610 Mason Hills 617 308 925
1175 Palmera Ridge and Palmera Bluff 376 508 8841110 Caughfield Development 190 447 637
1110 Highland Meadows 160 455 615
1225 Parkside at Mayfield Ranch 375 199 5743970 Deerbrooke 143 425 5683400 Kutscher Ranch 52 430 4823960 Oak Creek 292 182 4743900 Greatwood 160 230 3904000 Hawkes Landing 163 146 309
4,861 5,171 10,032
23,827
New Housing OccupanciesSingle-Family DevelopmentsNBCD
Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions):
Total Subdivision Housing Projected:
18
Multi-Family Developments
in the Next Two Years
2705 Aria at Steiner Ranch 35% o ccupied 195
2580 Cardinal Point TDHCAappro ved by
T D H C A 120
2580 Escape at Four Points 80% o ccupied 3441300 Leander Crossing mo ving dirt 2751260 Parkway Crossing US HUD mo ving dirt 242
2700 Tacara Steiner Ranchplanned fo r
2016 246
4900 The Tuckaway TDHCAapplying to
T D H C A 256
1160 Village at Leander Stationunder
co nstruct io n 220
2550 Windy Ridge TDHCAunder
co nstruct io n 120
Apartment ComplexNBCD Subsidized UnitsStatus
19
Projected
New
Housing
Occupancies
2015 – 2025
Year Ending in
October:
Single
Family
Condo/
Townhome
Housing
Multi-
Family
Total New
Housing
Units
2016 1,752 359 715 2,111
2017 1,969 446 1,003 2,415
2018 2,304 619 1,166 2,923
2019 2,574 716 1,591 3,290
2020 2,681 679 1,726 3,360
2021 2,717 550 1,617 3,267
2022 2,712 444 1,308 3,156
2023 2,493 314 890 2,807
2024 2,326 216 814 2,542
2025 2,299 102 672 2,401
2015-2020 11,280 2,819 6,201 20,300
2020-2025 12,547 1,626 5,301 19,474
2015-2025 23,827 4,445 11,502 39,774
20
Projected New
Housing
Occupancies
September 2015
to
October 2016
21
Projected New
Housing
Occupancies
September 2015
to
October 2020
2222
Projected New
Housing
Occupancies
September 2015
to
October 2025
2323
L.I.S.D. Demographic TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning
Population & Survey Analysts
24
Ratios of Students per Household
2012 2013 2014 2015
Apartments0.31 students
per unit
0.31 students
per unit
0.29 students
per unit
0.30 students
per unit
Single-Family
Homes
0.65 students
per home
0.66 students
per home
0.65 students
per home
0.66 students
per home
25
Students per Home in the
Master Planned Communities
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Avery Ranch 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.69 0.70
Crystal Falls 0.75 0.75 0.69 0.72 0.70
Mason Hills -- -- -- -- 0.36
Steiner Ranch 1.00 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09
Travisso -- -- -- -- 0.41
Twin Creeks 0.96 0.72 0.76 0.81 0.82
26
L.I.S.D. Demographic TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning
Population & Survey Analysts
27
Three Scenarios of GrowthE
nro
llm
en
t Moderate
Growth
2020 – 43,546
2025 – 50,226
High Growth
2020 – 44,668
2025 – 52,938
Low Growth
2020 – 42,330
2025 – 47,193
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
2012 2016 2020 2025
28
L.I.S.D. Demographic TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning
Population & Survey Analysts
29
Projected Resident
EE-5th Grade
Students
by
Current
Elementary
Attendance Zone
30
Open
Elementary #26
2017-18
Elementary
Long Range Planning
Planning Document Only
No decisions
have been made about
school sites, timing or
attendance zones
31
Open
Elementary #27
2019-20
Elementary
Long Range Planning
Planning Document Only
No decisions
have been made about
school sites, timing or
attendance zones
32
Open
Elementary #28
2020-21
Elementary
Long Range Planning
Planning Document Only
No decisions
have been made about
school sites, timing or
attendance zones
33
Open
Elementary #29
2021-22
Elementary
Long Range Planning
Planning Document Only
No decisions
have been made about
school sites, timing or
attendance zones
34
Open
Elementary
#30 and #31
2022-23
Elementary
Long Range Planning
Planning Document Only
No decisions
have been made about
school sites, timing or
attendance zones
35
Open
Elementary #32
2023-24 or
2024-25
Elementary
Long Range Planning
Planning Document Only
No decisions
have been made about
school sites, timing or
attendance zones
36
Summary
Elementary
Long Range Planning
Planning Document Only
No decisions
have been made about
school sites, timing or
attendance zones
37
Summary
Elementary Long Range Plan
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total
2015 Study 1 1 1 1 2 1 7
2014 Study 1 1 1 1 2 1 7
2013 Study 1 1 1 2 1 6
2012 Study 1 1 1 1 1 5
New Elementary Schools Projected to be Needed
38
Projected Resident
6th-8th Grade
Students
by
Current
Middle School
Attendance Zone
39
Open
Middle School #9
2020-21
Middle School
Long Range Planning
Planning Document Only
No decisions
have been made about
school sites, timing or
attendance zones
40
Open
Middle School #10
2023-24
Middle School
Long Range Planning
Planning Document Only
No decisions
have been made about
school sites, timing or
attendance zones
41
Summary
Middle School Long Range Plan
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2015 Study MS #9
2014 Study MS #9 MS #10
2013 Study
2012 Study MS #9
New Middle Schools Projected to be Needed
MS #9
MS #10
MS #10
MS #10
42
Projected Resident
9th-12th Grade
Students
by
2016-17
High School
Attendance Zone
43
Summary
High School Long Range Plan
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2015 Study Glenn HS HS #7
2014 Study HS #6
2013 Study HS #6 HS #7
2012 Study HS #7
New High Schools Projected to be Needed
HS #6
HS #7
44
Leander I.S.D.Demographic Update