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LEARNING FOR A NONLINEAR WORLD:Cultivating a Prospective Mind
21ST Century Learning Leadership Forum
October 13 2011Banff, Alberta
Thomas Homer-DixonBalsillie School of International Affairs
Waterloo Institute for Complexity and InnovationWaterloo, Ontario
We live in a world in which key systems are under rising
STRESS
Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951-1980.
Source: update of Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.
Partly because of this rising stress, we also now live in a
world of constant
SURPRISE
“Nobody understands who owes what towhom—or whether they have the ability topay. Counterparties have become afraid totrade with each other. . . . The crisiscontinues because nobody knows whatanything is worth. You simply cannot have afunctioning market under suchcircumstances.”
Joe Nocera, The New York Times, September 20, 2008
Increasing systemic stressand more frequent surprises
are due to
RISING HUMAN USE OF NATURAL SYSTEMS
GREATER COMPLEXITY OF SOCIAL,TECHNOLOGICAL, AND HUMAN-
ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly of
MACHINES
to seeing it as composed mainly of
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
MACHINES• show proportionality of cause and effect,• exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of
behavior, and• can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully
understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts)
• so they can be managed, because their behavior predictable.
COMPLEX SYTEMS• show disproportionality of cause and effect
(their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks and synergies),
• can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have multiple equilibriums), and
• are more than the sum of their parts (they have emergent properties)
• so they CANNOT be easily managed, because their behavior is often unpredictable.
What is causing ourour economies and societiesto become more complex?
Performance improvements at the levelof system units, i.e., organizations,
people, and technologies,
especially advances in information technology
Result: Our networks have more nodes, denser links, and faster movement of material, energy,
and information along these links
Rising social, economic,and technological complexity
can be a good or bad thing
Opaqueness and uncertainty
System flips and extreme events (including cascading failures)
Cognitive and managerial overload
and
Brittleness
Complexity sometimes causes
In this newworld of constant surprise
and soaring complexity,what should we do?
1. BUILD RESILIENCE
Resilient people, institutionsand societies can withstand
shock without catastrophic failure,
have the capacity for self-reliance,
and are creative in response to novelchallenges.
2. CULTIVATE A PROSPECTIVE MINDA prospective mind is open to reason and evidence,
has a “street sense” for science,
remains flexible in response to constant change(so isn’t surprised by surprise),
is curious about new ideas and facts
learns from failed experiments, and
sees opportunity in crisis.
FOUR CONCEPTUAL SHIFTSneeded for a Prospective Mind
• Systems: From MECHANICAL to COMPLEX
• Self: From CONSUMER to PROBLEM SOLVER
• Knowledge: From SPECIALIZED to INTEGRATED
• Values: From UTILITARIAN to MORAL and EXISTENTIAL
Three Categories of Value
Simple preferences (utilities)
Moral values (oughts)
Existential/spiritual values