Screen 1 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

At the end of this lesson you will be able to:

understand the purpose of food security monitoring activities; understand the role of early warning systems; appreciate how this differs from monitoring longer-term food security trends; and recognize how regular food security monitoring is related to baseline

assessments.

Screen 2 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

INTRODUCTION

This lesson will examine the purpose and means to assess and monitor changes in food security over time.

It will look at two types of regular food security assessments:

early warningearly warning

monitoring food security trendsmonitoring food security trends

and

Screen 3 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

TRACKING CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY

It should also incorporate as much as possible historical trends in food insecurity, in order to design strategies and programmes.

A baseline assessment represents a ‘snap-shot’ of the food security situation at a specific point in time.A baseline assessment represents a ‘snap-shot’ of the food security situation at a specific point in time.

Screen 4 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

TRACKING CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY

Baselines may also identify:

what hazards or shocks threaten their future food security

what is the level of capacity to cope with these hazards

who is vulnerable to becoming food insecure in the future.

Screen 5 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

TRACKING CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY

Information is needed to make decisions on:

• initiating new interventions to protect or improve food security; or;

• modifying, or exiting from, on-going interventions that need to be scaled up, scaled down, are no longer needed or have been ineffective.

Information is needed to make decisions on:

• initiating new interventions to protect or improve food security; or;

• modifying, or exiting from, on-going interventions that need to be scaled up, scaled down, are no longer needed or have been ineffective.

Food insecurity can be highly dynamic.

Decision makers must monitor changes in household food security status.Decision makers must monitor changes in household food security status.

Screen 6 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

Trends are changes to food security that occur more gradually over time.

They can have either a positive or a negative effect on livelihoods.

TRACKING CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY

Two main types of changes may alter levels of household food security:

A shock (also called hazard or stress) can cause a very rapid deterioration in food security.

SHOCKS

TRENDS

Screen 7 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

TRACKING CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY

Shocks and trends must be distinguished since they have different effects.

It is important to know these effects in order to design appropriate responses.

The rapid changes to food security that result from shocks may require an emergency food security intervention to protect lives and livelihoods.

Understanding trends can inform decisions on adapting, modifying or exiting from on-going food security interventions.

SHOCKS

TRENDS

Screen 8 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMSEARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Different kinds of systems are designed to monitor changes in food security:

TREND MONITORING SYSTEMSTREND MONITORING SYSTEMS

Screen 9 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

It is possible to give ample notice when external shocks or other factors put people at risk.

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

The objective of these systems is to prevent mass starvation, by regularly monitoring the food security situation.

The objective of these systems is to prevent mass starvation, by regularly monitoring the food security situation.

Screen 10 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

3. The monitoring and reporting must be regular and frequent to provide timely warning.

Effective early warning systems share a number of characteristics:

1. The coverage is typically broad.

2. An early warning system needs to adopt a ‘light’ methodology to produce timely reports with a broad coverage.

Screen 11 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

1. The initial focus can be on monitoring the incidence of the shocks or hazards.

2. On the basis of the severity of a shock the early warning systems can predict the probable food security consequences.

3. This information can be used to trigger appropriate mitigation and response plans.

Screen 12 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

You can list the various hazards and then rate:

• the frequency of the hazards occurring,

• how many people are affected, and

• the severity of the impacts.

Hazard Frequency(1 = rare, 3 = frequent)

Number affected

(1 = few, 3 = majority)

Severity(1 = mild, 3 = severe)

Score Final rank

Flood 2 1 1 2 3rd

Drought 2 3 2 12 1st

Earthquake 1 2 3 6 2nd

Fires 3 1 2 6 2nd

In case of limited resources, how do you decide which of these hazards and shocks should be monitored?

Screen 13 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

International level

International level

Regional levelRegional level

National levelNational level

FAO has developed the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS).

They are set up by member states of regional community organizations.

Most governments have institutionalized national crop monitoring systems.

To monitor variations in crop production, various early warning systems have been developed, at the global, regional and national levels. To monitor variations in crop production, various early warning systems have been developed, at the global, regional and national levels.

Screen 14 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

The outcome will be influenced by two main factors:

The capacity to cope

The degree of exposure to a shock

To plan emergency interventions it is necessary to understand how the hazard may affect people’s future food insecurity.

Screen 15 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Food security baseline assessments provide a picture of typical livelihoods (a picture of their assets and how they use them to generate income).

This provides:

the context for estimating the likely effect of ‘shocks’ on household food

consumption;

what coping strategies are available;

help to identify who is most at risk of being unable to cope with the

shock.

Screen 16 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Rural people don’t depend solely on their on production, but employ a range of strategies to get the food and cash they need.

“Second generation” early warning systems utilize a multi-indicator approach. It monitors trends in a wider range of production and income sources.

Screen 17 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

The purpose of an early warning system is to monitor trends and identify if a problem is developing.

In this case the system helps to assess:

how quickly it is developing, and

define the geographical area affected.

The value of an early warning system lies in its ability to trigger an appropriate response.

Screen 18 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

To design an emergency large scale response, it is usually necessary to gather more detailed information through a ‘once-off’ needs assessment.

What is the nature of food insecurity?

What are the causes?

What response is recommended?

Screen 19 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

TREND MONITORING

Early warning systems are not designed to monitor longer term food security trends.

TREND MONITORING SYSTEMS

A separate trend monitoring system is needed to assess changes in food security over time.

Trend monitoring directly assesses food security outcomes.

Screen 20 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

TREND MONITORING

A range of possible indicators can be used to monitor food security outcomes.

This includes:

measures of food consumption,

coping strategies, or

nutritional surveillance.

Screen 21 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

SUMMARY

Early Warning Trend Monitoring

Coverage Operates at global, regional, national and local levels. May have an intensive focus on food insecure and hazard prone areas

Depends on purpose. May take place at national level or focus on a specific programmatic level.

Methodology

Traditional EWS monitor hazards or shocks, such as crop failure.Newer EWS monitor a range of environmental, economic and welfare indicators related to local livelihoods.

Measures food security outcomes.

Link to baseline

Baseline provides context to assess the impact of the shock on food security.Baseline understanding of livelihoods may be used to select EW indicators.

If designed in conjunction with baseline assessment, then baseline figures can be used to assess changes in food security.Otherwise trend analysis based on multiple monitoring survey rounds.

Reporting Frequent. Varies between seasonal and real time.

Periodic. Varies between seasonal to inter-annual.

Links to decision making

Triggers detailed needs assessment, activates contingency plans, mobilizes community and public awareness.

Modifies or terminates existing food security programmes. Initiates new long-term programmes or strategies.

Screen 22 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE...

Online resources

Darcy, J. and Charles-Antoine Hofmann (2003) Humanitarian Needs Assessment and Decision-Making, HPG Briefing 13, September 2003. http://www.odi.org.uk/HPG/papers/hpgbrief13.pdf

Maunder, N and Wiggins, S. (2007) Food security in Southern Africa:

Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability. Natural Resource Perspectives 106, June 2007 Overseas Development Institute, London. http://www.odi.org.uk/nrp/nrp105.pdf

FAO GIEWS website http://www.fao.org/giews/english/index.htm

FEWS NET http://www.fews.net/

WFP SENAC http://www.wfp.org/operations/Emergency_needs/index.asp?section=5&sub_section=6#senac

Screen 23 of 23

Baseline Food Security Assessments

Monitoring changes in food security

IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE...

Additional readings

Devereux, S. And Maxwell, S. (2001) Food security in sub-Saharan Africa ITDG

FAO (2006) Planning for the future: an assessment of food security early

warning systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Synthesis report. Rome.

Save the Children Fund (2007) HEA Practitioner Guide. SCF-UK.