Lec. 07 – Probability and Bayes’ Theorem

1. Probability

a. Addition lawb. Conditional probability

2. Bayes’ Theorem

a. theoryb. In class exercisec. Examples from the coastal geomorph literatured. Examples from YOUR field of research –

(email me a .pdf before class on Thursday.)

Today’s Outline

Probability – the addition law

Conditional Probability

Bayes’ Theorem - Origin

Bayes’ Theorem Example 1

Bayes’ Theorem Example 2

In class exercise…

Write a MATLAB .m file that uses Bayes’ theorem to calculate the probability that a Xian-like, a Gulf of Tonkin-like, and a Java sea-like oil strike will occur in this concession.