Lecture 02:Lecture 02: 當前全球環境危當前全球環境危機機 (cont.)(cont.)

http://www.kyoto-seika.ac.jp/kicc/index_e.htmlhttp://www.kyoto-seika.ac.jp/kicc/index_e.html

May rise by 6.4C (IPCC AR4 summary report (2007.2.2 Paris)

Variability vs.

Change

Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases are gases that trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere. The main one is carbon dioxide (CO2), and burning fossil fuel has added to natural emissions. The Kyoto protocol also covers methane (CH4), much of which comes from agriculture and waste dumps, and nitrous oxide (N2O), mostly a result of fertilizer use. Three industrial gases used in various applications, such as refrigerants, heat conductors and insulators, are also included. They are hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

The radiative forcing of the surface-troposphere system due to the perturbation in (possibly, a change of solar irradiance) or the introduction of an agent (say, a change in greenhouse gas concentrations) is the change in net (down minus up) irradiance (solar plus long-wave; in Watt m-2) at the tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values.

Radiative Forcing

Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era

Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era

Source: IPCC AR4 wg1 (2007)

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Gangotri Glacier, Northern India

zghsd •Receding since 1780

•Last 25 years, Gangotri Glacier has retreated more than 850 m (2 788 ft)

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Hubbard Glacier, Alaska, USA

•1985 –Hubbard Glacier

•1986 –Hubbard Glacier blocks Russell Fjord

•2002 –Hubbard Glacier blocks Russell Fjord again

•2003 – Glacier has retreated

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Hubbard Glacier Advance

10 Aug 2002

14 Aug 2002

S.-P. Weng 12

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Which part is melting faster ?

2010-2030 2030-2050 2050-2070

Future Projections of diminishing Sea Ice Coverage in Arctic Sea

S.-P. Weng 15

Themes for IPY 2007-081. To determine the present environmental status of the polar

regions by quantifying their spatial and temporal variability.2. To quantify, and understand, past and present environmental

and human change in the polar regions in order to improve predictions.

3. To advance our understanding of polar - global interactions by studying teleconnections on all scales.

4. To investigate the unknowns at the frontiers of science in the polar regions.

5. To use the unique vantage point of the polar regions to develop and enhance observatories studying the Earth's inner core, the Earth's magnetic field, geospace, the Sun and beyond.

6. To investigate the cultural, historical, and social processes that shape the resilience and sustainability of circumpolar human societies, and to identify their unique contributions to global cultural diversity and citizenship

(from Weather & Climate)

Hurricane Vince was one of the most unusual hurricanes ever to develop in the Atlantic basin, forming in October 8 during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.

An unusual C4 Hurricane hit Argentina during 2003

畫眉在北緯 1.4度形成，在西北太平洋區內一直保持在北緯 2 度以南，更吹襲了新加坡，是有紀錄以來第一個吹襲新加坡的熱帶氣旋，並是太平洋上最接近赤道形成的熱帶氣旋，以及全球第二最接近赤道生成的熱帶氣旋，僅次於 2004年北印度洋的的旋風 Agni的北緯 0.7度。

Kyoto Protocol Basics1. What is the Kyoto Protocol?

It's a pact agreed by government delegates at a 1997 U.N.

conference in Kyoto, Japan, to reduce the amount of greenhouse

gases emitted by developed countries by 5.2 percent of 1990

levels during 2008-2012. A total of 141 nations have ratified the

pact, according to U.N. data.

2. Is it the first agreement of its kind?

Governments originally agreed to tackle climate change at the

1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. At that meeting, leaders

created the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change,

which set a non-binding goal of stabilizing emissions at 1990

levels by 2000, a goal not met overall. The Kyoto protocol is the

follow-up to that and is the first legally binding global agreement to

cut greenhouse gases.

Kyoto Protocol Basics3. Is it legally binding?

Kyoto will have legal force for its participants from Feb. 16 after

meeting twin conditions -- backing from at least 55 countries and

support from nations representing at least 55% of developed

countries’ carbon dioxide emissions. It passed the second hurdle

in November 2004 when Russia ratified and now has backing from

nations representing 61.6% of emissions. The United States, the

world’s biggest emitter, has pulled out, saying Kyoto is too

expensive and wrongly omits developing nations.4. How will it be enforced?Under a 2001 deal made by environment ministers, if countries emit more gases than allowed under their targets at the end of 2012, they will be required to make the cuts, and 30% more, in the second commitment period, which is due to start in 2013. They rejected the idea of a financial penalty.

Kyoto Protocol Basics5. Must all cut emissions by 5.2 percent?

No, only 39 countries -- relatively developed ones -- have target

levels for the 2008-12 period, adhering to a principle that richer

countries should take the lead. Each country negotiated different

targets, with Russia aiming for stabilization at 1990 levels and the

European Union taking an eight percent cut.

6. How are supporters doing so far?

Many countries are lagging behind Kyoto targets. Emissions by

Spain and Portugal were 40.5 percent above 1990 levels in 2002.

U.S. emissions were up 13.1 percent. Emissions by ex-communist

bloc states fell most sharply due to the collapse of Soviet-era

industries -- Russian emissions were down 38.5 percent.

Kyoto Protocol Basics7. How will countries comply?

The European Union set up a new market in January 2005

under which about 12,000 factories and power stations are

given carbon dioxide quotas. If they overshoot they can buy

extra allowances in the market or pay a financial penalty; if

they undershoot they can sell them. Prices in the EU market

are now about 7.2 euros per metric ton.

Kyoto Protocol Basics8. What if a country misses its target?

The protocol provides for "flexible mechanisms" -- ways for

countries to reach their targets without actually reducing

emissions at home. These include emissions trading -- where

one country buys the right to emit from a country that has

already reduced its emissions sufficiently and has "spare"

emissions reductions. Another is the "clean development

mechanism" where developed countries can earn credits to

offset against their targets by funding clean technologies,

such as solar power, in poorer countries.

Countries can also claim credits for planting trees in the

Third World that soak up CO2 -- so-called carbon "sinks."

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京都機制

開發中國家（非附件一國

家）

住商減量

交通減量工業減量

植樹造林

京都議定書減量規範之工業化國家（附件一國家）

工業化國家 經濟轉型國家

排放交易（ ET ）

共同減量（ JI ）

溫室氣體減量專案計畫

清潔發展機制（ CDM ）

共同減量（ JI ）、清潔發展機制（ CDM ）及排放交易（ ET ）

京都議定書之影響 國際間主要溫室氣體為二氧化碳，且大多來自人為能源

使用（如：燃燒使用煤、油、天然氣等，仍為現今全球

最主要的能源供給來源 ），造成減量之困難。

京都議定書之制訂限制二氧化碳排放，將直接衝擊各國

能源配比與產業結構，影響各國經濟發展，甚至損及國

際競爭力。

京都會議後，可以很清楚地發現國際態勢已由過去的東

西意識形態對抗，轉變成南北對立，已開發國家與開發

中國家之競爭，甚至可稱為富有國家與貧窮國家之戰爭。

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各國因應溫室氣體增加之作法附件一國家之作法：

有半數附件一國家於 2000 年溫室氣體排放量低於 1990 年的水準。 個別國家間排放量變化差別大，從下降 66% 到增加 36% 。

註：台灣 1990 年能源部門之二氧化碳排放量為 113 百萬公噸，至 2000 年已成長為 218 百萬噸，增加幅度約為 93 ％。

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各國因應溫室氣體增加之作法（續）附件一國家因應措施比較：

主要國家 2000 年各部門 CO2排放量所佔比例，主要以能源生產為主。

國家 / 部門

能源生產 工 業 運 輸 住商及其他 合 計

日 本 40 26 22 12

100

英 國 40 14 25 21

美 國 48 11 30 11

歐 盟 36 18 26 20

加拿大 35 20 28 17

德 國 42 17 21 20

法 國 16 23 37 24

瑞 典 18 23 43 16

澳 洲 57 17 23 3

註：台灣 2000 年各部門占比：能源生產 52.8 ％、工業 27.7 ％、運輸 14.4％、住商及其他 5.1 ％。

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臺灣因應溫室氣體增加之策略 我國近年來經濟快速發展，屬於新興工業國之一，但由於能源配

比及產業結構之因素，尚無法與工業化國家（如歐盟、美國）相提並論，我國無法承擔比照工業化國家相同的溫室氣體減量責任。

地球暖化係工業化國歷史累積排放溫室氣體之結果，基於公約「公平」、「合理」對等之原則，我國認為工業化國應先負起溫室氣體減量之責任。

我國認為各國應依據公約原則來共同承擔﹔但程度有不同以因應氣候變遷的責任與能力，促進永續性經濟發展。

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1992 年成立「全球變遷工作小組」，由政務委員擔任召集人。 1994 年 8月提升為「全球環境變遷政策指導小組」，由政務委員擔任召集人。

1997 年擴編成立跨部會之「行政院國家永續發展委員會」，由副院長擔任主任委員。委員會下設「大氣保護及能源工作分組」負責「聯合國氣候變化綱要公約」與「蒙特婁議定書」，由環保署空保處擔任召集工作 。

1998 年召開「全國能源會議」，檢討我國能源及產業相關政策。 2002 年 6月行政院國家永續發展委員會改組，提昇由行政院院長擔任

主任委員，並成立「國際環保組」，由環保署空保處擔任窗口，負責相關國際環保業務之推動。

2009 年 1 月全國科技會議，氣候與環境變遷將帶來的衝擊影響是全面性的 => 1 年內制定「環境變遷國家調適政策綱領」 。

臺灣因應溫室氣體增加之策略（續）

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臺灣因應溫室氣體增加之策略（續）一、我國目前非聯合國會員，缺乏參與管道，造成：（ 1 ）無法正式參與公約協商。（ 2 ）不能以締約國身份參與彈性減量機制（清潔發展機制）及其他合作管道。

二、我國重要產業（半導體協會與 TFT-LCD協會）已經受到國際壓力，必須簽訂自願減量協定；若不遵循，該產業發展將會受到嚴重衝擊。

三、根據世界銀行評估，我國能源供應結構大多仰賴高碳能源，調整困難；我國溫室氣體減量成本遠高於大多數工業化國家。

四、各相關部會參與氣候變遷議題之程度不足。

The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, Dec 2007 (Bali roadmap)

The Conference, hosted by the Government of Indonesia, took place

at the Bali International Convention Centre and brought together

more than 10,000 participants, including representatives of over 190

countries together with observers from intergovernmental and

nongovernmental organizations and the media. The two week period

included the sessions of the Conference of the Parties to the

UNFCCC, its subsidiary bodies as well as the Meeting of the Parties

to the Kyoto Protocol. A ministerial segment in the second week

concluded the Conference.

The United Nations Framework on Climate Change Conference in Bali, Dec 2007 (Bali roadmap)

The conference culminated in the adoption of  the Bali Roadmap,

which consists of a number of forward-looking decisions that

represent the various tracks that are essential to reaching a secure

climate future. The Bali Roadmap includes the Bali Action Plan,

which charts the course for a new negotiating process designed to

tackle climate change, with the aim of completing this by 2009. It also

includes the AWG-KP (Commitments for Annex | Parties under the

Kyoto Protocol ) negotiations and their 2009 deadline, the launch of

the Adaptation Fund, the scope and content of the Article 9 review of

the Kyoto Protocol, as well as decisions on technology transfer and on

reducing emissions from deforestation.

峇里島路線圖的決議1.因應氣候變遷的事實，各國將在哥本哈根會議(2009)定出明確的溫室氣體減量目標2.成立由全球環境基金（ GEF）管理的「調適基金」（ Adaptation Fund）3.致力降低森林消退後所導致的碳排放（ REDD， Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation）

峇里島會議的共識 立即採取行動，否則後果嚴重：海平面上升；洪水更加頻繁和更難以預料，會出現嚴重的乾旱；世界各地、特別是非洲和中亞將發生饑荒；地球上將有多達三分之一的動植物物種滅絕。

Kyoto2: framework for a new Climate Protocol under the UNFCCC beyond 2012

Aims (GEEPA):

1.global - its scope is global and all countries are included within the framework 2.economically efficient - using auction and open markets for optimum allocation of resources 3.equitable - addressing the needs of the poor, and mitigating the impacts of climate change 4.practical - designed to minimize accounting and compliance overheads 5.acceptable - by seeking to address the needs and concerns of all countries

全球環境三大威脅地球暖化 →地球熱化臭氧層的破壞淨化與恢復能力減弱

全球環境危機的最根本原因對發展無限論的過度自信

人類是地球環境最大的污染源