Lecture 11: Lecture 11: Features of the Features of the

Cold WarCold WarApril 21, 2010April 21, 2010

Failed States in the Gulf of Aden:Why Should We Care?

In recent years the security situation around the Gulf of Aden has changed frequently and often dramatically.

In Somalia and Yemen states are failing or on the brink of failure. Piracy and terrorism constitute growing threats to local and international communities.Join us for a Panel Discussion! 6:30 pm on Wednesday, April 21st Communications 120PanelistsFrederick Lorenz teaches at JSIS and has visited Somaliland frequently in the past years.Robert Burrowes teaches at JSIS is an authority on the history and politics of Yemen.Introduced and moderated by Scott Radnitz and Wolfram Latsch, Assistant Professors, JSIS

MisperceptionsMisperceptions Security dilemma: steps pursued by states Security dilemma: steps pursued by states

to bolster their security have the effect--to bolster their security have the effect--often unintended and unforeseen--of often unintended and unforeseen--of making other states less secure making other states less secure

Contributing factorsContributing factors-Minimal contact-Minimal contact-Different political cultures-Different political cultures-Psychological processes-Psychological processes-Context -Context

Domestic PoliticsDomestic Politics

US: play up Communist threat to US: play up Communist threat to emphasize security credentialsemphasize security credentials

USSR: demonize West to justify USSR: demonize West to justify holding onto powerholding onto power

““Military-industrial complex”Military-industrial complex”

Military-Industrial ComplexMilitary-Industrial Complex

““This conjunction of an immense military This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence in the American experience. The total influence — economic, political, even spiritual — is felt in — economic, political, even spiritual — is felt in every city, every statehouse, every office of the every city, every statehouse, every office of the federal government. …We must guard against federal government. …We must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes.” democratic processes.”

--President Dwight Eisenhower, 1960--President Dwight Eisenhower, 1960

IdeologyIdeology

Teleological conceptions of historyTeleological conceptions of history ““Missionary impulses”Missionary impulses”

US: superiority of capitalismUS: superiority of capitalism USSR: universality of Communism USSR: universality of Communism

US Policy Debate: Three US Policy Debate: Three OptionsOptions

RollbackRollback Accommodation Accommodation ContainmentContainment

ContainmentContainmentPremisesPremises --Soviet Union, not Communism, is the enemy--Soviet Union, not Communism, is the enemy--Soviet leadership deterrable (i.e. not Hitler)--Soviet leadership deterrable (i.e. not Hitler)--Hard for Soviet Union to maintain hegemony in its --Hard for Soviet Union to maintain hegemony in its

spheresphere--Political diversity is acceptable--Political diversity is acceptable

PolicyPolicy--Distinguish vital from peripheral interests--Distinguish vital from peripheral interests--Restraint, patience--Restraint, patience--US could prevail by example--US could prevail by example

Definition, according to Kennan: policies to stop Soviet Definition, according to Kennan: policies to stop Soviet expansion through selective use of resources and expansion through selective use of resources and careful distinction of real and apparent threatscareful distinction of real and apparent threats

NSC-68NSC-68

US threatened by Communism, not US threatened by Communism, not only by USSRonly by USSR

Perceptions matterPerceptions matter Soviet expansion produces strength, Soviet expansion produces strength,

not weaknessnot weakness Use military means, increase Use military means, increase

defense budgetdefense budget

Features of the Cold War Features of the Cold War OrderOrder

Bi-polarityBi-polarity Emergence of “third world”Emergence of “third world” Nuclear deterrenceNuclear deterrence

““second strike capability”: ability to second strike capability”: ability to absorb a nuclear attack and still inflict absorb a nuclear attack and still inflict unacceptable damage on an adversaryunacceptable damage on an adversary

Mutually assured destruction—MADMutually assured destruction—MAD Unwritten rulesUnwritten rules Military alliancesMilitary alliances

NATO: “to keep the Russians NATO: “to keep the Russians out, the Germans down, and out, the Germans down, and

America in” America in”

Mini-NATOsMini-NATOs

CENTO

SEATO

Action and ReactionAction and Reaction

US/Western Europe USSR/Eastern Europe

NATO 1949 Warsaw Pact 1955

Marshall Plan 1948 COMECON 1949

Atom bomb 1945 Atom bomb 1949

Anti-Communism at Anti-Communism at HomeHome

Cold War “Culture”Cold War “Culture”