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Global Warming
Will Human-Induced ClimateChange Destroy the World?
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Introduction
Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to
blame for earths temperatureincreases?
What can/should be done about theseissues?
Are the potential resolutions worth thecost to implement them?
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History of Earths Climate Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago Originally very hot Suns energy output only 70% of
present Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years
ago (zircon dating) Much of earths early history erased
during late heavy bombardment (~3.9billion years ago)
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History of Earths Climate Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion
years agoProduced oxygen and removed carbondioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)Earth went through periods of cooling(Snowball Earth) and warming
Earth began cycles of glacial andinterglacial periods ~3 million yearsago
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Sun
Earths Temperature
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
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Sun
Earths Temperature
Solar
Energy
RadiativeCooling
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Sun
Earths Temperature
Solar
nergyRadiativeCooling
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Sun
Earths Temperature
Solar
EnergyRadiativeCooling
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Greenhouse EffectSun
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Earths Atmospheric Gases Nitrogen (N 2)
Oxygen (O 2)
Water (H 2O)
Carbon Dioxide (CO 2)
>99%
Methane (CH4)
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Sun Runaway Greenhouse Effect
97% carbon dioxide 3% nitrogen Water & sulfuric
acid clouds Temperature:
860F
Venus
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Carbon Dioxide
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170
220
270
320
370
420
200000400000600000 Time YBP
C O
2 ( p p m
)
Vostok Ice CoreDome Concordia
Carbon Dioxide Levels
0
Muana Loa Readings
CO 2 Levels Since 1958
310
330350370
10203040 C O
2 ( p p m
)
0
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Worldwide Carbon Emissions
C a r
b o n
( 1 0 9
m e t r i c
t o n s )
0
12
3
4
5
6
7
8
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year
Liquid fuelTotal
Gas fuelSolid fuel
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Future Carbon Dioxide Levels
Increasing CO 2 emissions, especially inChina and developing countries
Likely to double within 150 years:Increased coal usageIncreased natural gas usageDecreased petroleum usage (increasedcost and decreasing supply)
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Kyoto Protocol
Adopted in 1997 Cut CO 2 emissions by 5% from 1990
levels for 2008-2012 Symbolic only, since cuts will not
significantly impact global warming
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Past Temperatures
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-0.6
-0.4-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.60.8
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year
M e a n
T e m p e r a
t u r e
( C )
Recorded WorldwideTemperatures
Flat
Decreasing
Flat
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Winter Temperatures
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Summer Temperatures
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Annual Temperatures
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
T e m p e r a
t u r e
( C )
Historic Los AngelesTemperatures
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2009 Temperature ChangesCompared to 1951-1980
-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
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Past Temperatures Measurement
Proxy a method that approximates aparticular measurement (e.g.,temperature)
Tree ringsIce coresPollen recordsPlant macrofossilsSr/Ca isotope dataOxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite(stalactites and stalagmites)
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Temperature History of the Earth
Little ice age (1400-1840) 1C cooler Medieval warm period (800-1300) 1C
warmer than today Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North
Atlantic Mostly due to changes in thermohaline
circulation Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline
circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as alarge lake in Canada flooded the NorthAtlantic
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Temperature History of the Earth
For the past 3 million years, the earthhas been experiencing ~100,000 yearlong cycles of glaciation followed by~10,000 year long interglacial periods
These climate periods are largely theresult of cycles in the earths orbit precession, obliquity, and eccentricity
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Orbital Parameters: Precession
PerihelionApehelion
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Orbital Parameters: Obliquity22.5 24 .5
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Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity
PerihelionApehelionApehelion
Minimum: 0.005
Maximum: 0.061
Not to scale!To Scale!
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Orbital Parameters & Earths Climate
Age (kya)1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Eccentricity(100 ky)
Temperature
Obliquity(41 ky)
Precession(22 ky)
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Temperature History of the Earth
For the past 3 million years, the earthhas been experiencing ~100,000 yearlong cycles of glaciation followed by~10,000 year long interglacial periods
Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 yearsago, but was interrupted by theYounger Dryas event 12,900 yearsago
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YoungerDryas
Younger Dryas Event
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
05101520Age (kya)
T e m p e r a t u r e
( C )
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
S n o w
A c c u m u l a t
i o n
( m / y r )
Little Ice AgeIce Age
Medieval Warm
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Younger Dryas Event
-44-43-42-41-40-39-38
-37-36-35
-34
1 8 O ( G r e e n
l a n
d )
-8.0
-7.5
-7.0
-6.5
-6.0
-5.5
-5.0-4.5
-4.010111213141516
1 8 O ( C h i n a )
YoungerDryas
A e k a
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Temperature History of the Earth
Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya) Temperatures: 2C higher than today.
20C higher at high latitudes1C higher at the Equator
Sea levels were 100 ft higher
CausesCO 2 levels that were 100 ppm higherIncreased thermohaline circulation
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Temperature History of the Earth
Eocene (41 million years ago) Opening of the Drake Passage
(between South America andAntarctica).
Increased ocean current exchangeStrong global coolingFirst permanent glaciation of Antarctica~34 million years ago
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Temperature History of the Earth
Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya) Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8C
CausesIncreased volcanismRapid release of methane from the oceans
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Temperature History of the Earth
Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya) Much warmer
Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland Causes
Different ocean currents (continentalarrangement)higher CO 2 levels (at least 2 to 4 timeshigher than today, up to 1200 ppm)
A C il ti f Ph i
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Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
030
60
90
A t m o s p h
e r i c
C O 2
C o n
c e n
t r a t i o n
( p p mV
)
C o n
t i n e n
t a l
G l a
c i a
t i o n
( P a l e
o l a
t i t u d e )
400 300 200 100 0
Paleozoic Mesozoic CenozoicS D Carb P Tr J K Pg Ng
A Compilation of PhanerozoicAtmospheric CO 2 Records
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Hockey Stick Controversy
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-0.8
Year
-0.6
-0.4
-0.20
0.2
0.40.6
T e m p e r a t u r e
C h a n g e
( C )
Direct temperature measurementsMann et al. 1999
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The Problem with Tree Rings
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-0.6
Year
-0.5-0.4
-0.3
00.10.20.3
T e m p e r a t u r e
C h a n g e
( C )
-0.2-0.1
Jones et al. 1998Briffa et al. 1999Mann et al. 1999
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What Influences Tree Rings?
Temperature Rainfall
Carbon dioxide concentration
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Mann et al. 1999Esper et al. 2002
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800-2
-1
0
1
2
T e m p e r a t u r e
C h a n g e
( C )
2000
Year
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
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Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Year
T e m p e r a t u r e
C h
a n g e
( C )
Mann et al. 1999
Esper et al. 2002Moberg et al. 2005Mann et al. 2008
Medieval Warm Period
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U.S. National Academy ofSciences: June 2006
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-0.8
Year
-0.6
-0.4
-0.20
0.2
0.40.6
T e m p e r a t u r e
C h a n g e
( C )
high level of confidence 2:1 chance of being right
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-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1980 1990 2000 Year
-0.6
-0.4-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1980 1990 2000 Year
T e m p e r a
t u r e
C g a n g e
( C )
Atmospheric Temperatures
Troposphere Stratosphere
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170
220
270
320
370
0200000400000600000Time (YBP)
C O 2 ( p p m
) A n
t a r c
t i c a
252627
282930
31
S S T ( C ) T r o p
i c a l
P a c i
f i c
CO 2 Concentration Vs. Temperature
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Consequences of
Global Warming
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Global Warming Primarily Impactsthe Northern Hemisphere
-0.6-0.4-0.2
0.0
0.20.4
0.60.8
1.0
1920 1960 2000Year
T e m p e r a
t u r e
C h a n g e
( C )
1920 1960 2000Year
Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
Northern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere
LandOcean
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Ice Sheets Melting? GRACE (gravity measured by satellite)
found melting of Antarctica equivalentto sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2
in/century) Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar
altimetry)
confirmed Antarctica meltingGreenland ice melting onexterior, accumulating inland(higher precipitation)
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Melting Glaciers Mt. Kilimanjaro
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1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200-400
-6002003 2004 2005
I c e
M a s s
( k m
3 )
Year
Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass
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Rise in Sea Levels?
Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4in/century)
Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006mm/yr 2
If acceleration continues, could resultin 12 in/century sea level rise
Scenarios claiming 1 meter or morerise are unrealistic
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Changing Sea Levels
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000-20
-10
0
10
20
R e l a
t i v e
S e a
L e v e l
( c m )
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
Amsterdam, NetherlandsBrest, FranceSwinoujscie, Poland
Gl o b
al T em
p er a
t ur e
C h an
g e
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Time (KYBP)
S e a
L e v e
l ( m
)
20
0
-20
-40-60
-80
-100
-120
Sea Levels for 450,000 Years
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 025
26
27
28
29
30
31
S S T ( C ) T r o p i c a
l P a c
i f i c
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Increase in Hurricanes?
Two studies showed the total n u m b e r of hurricanes has not changed
However, the in tens i ty of hurricaneshas increased (more category 4 and 5hurricanes and cyclones)
Probably due to higher sea surfacetemperatures (more energy)
Difficult to know if this trend willcontinue
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
5
10
15
Data Unreliable
Scaled August-OctoberSea-Surface TemperatureAdjusted Atlantic StormPower Dissipation Index
S S T / S
P D I ( m e t e r s 3
/ s e c
2 )
H M h T
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How Much TemperatureIncrease?
Some models propose up to 9 Cincrease this century
Two studies put the minimum at 1.5 Cand maximum at 4.5 C or 6.2 C
Another study puts the minimum at2.5 C
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Effect on Humans
Fewer deaths from cold, more fromheat
Decreased thermohaline circulationCooler temperatures in North Atlantic
CO 2 fertilization effect Precipitation changes
Droughts and famine (some areas)Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union
P t ti l W ld id P i it ti
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Potential Worldwide PrecipitationChanges
-50 -20 -10 -5 5 10 20 50
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Drought in Africa
Lake Faguibine Lake Chad
C t t St bili CO
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Cost to Stabilize CO 2 Concentrations
450 550 650 750
18001600140012001000
800600
400200
0
Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
C o s t
( T r i
l l o n s
U . S
. D o
l l a r s
)
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Possible Solutions to
Global Warming
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S f CO i G l i l F i
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Storage of CO 2 in Geological Formations1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs2. CO
2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery
3. Deep saline formations (a) offshore (b) onshore4. CO 2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7
3a 2
3b 14
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Global Warming Has Stopped?
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year
M e a n
T e m p e r a t u r e
( C )
1365.2
1365.41365.6
1365.8
1366.0
1366.2
1366.4
1366.6
1366.8
S o l a r
I r r a
d i a n c e
( W / m 2 )
2010
Volcanoes Put Out More CO
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Volcanoes Put Out More CO 2 Than Fossil Fuel Burning
0
2
4
6
8
10
C a r
b o n
( 1 0 9
m e t r i c t o n s
)
Fossil FuelVolcanoes
Global Warming is Caused by
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Global Warming is Caused bySunspots
-0.6
-0.4-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year
M e a n
T e m p e r a t u r e
( C )
0
50
100
150
200
250
S u n s p o t s
Hadley Temperatures Vs
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Hadley Temperatures Vs.Sunspots
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
1.0
1.5
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year
M e a n
T e m p e r a t u r e
( C )
0
50
100
150
200
250
S u n s p o t s
Global Warming is Caused by
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Global Warming is Caused byGCR
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
M e a n
T e m p e r a t u r e
( C )
3000
32003400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
G a m m a
C o s m
i c R a y s
CO Vs Sea Level
CO Vs Temperature
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CO 2 Vs. Sea LevelCO 2 Vs. Temperature
0100000200000300000400000500000
Time (ybp)
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
R e
l a t i v e
S e a
L e v e
l
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
C O
2 ( p p m
v )
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
T e m p e r a
t u r e
Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.
Global Warming is Due to Urban
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-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
Global Warming is Due to UrbanHeat Islands
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
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Global Warming Primarily Impacts
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Global Warming Primarily Impactsthe Northern Hemisphere
-0.6-0.4
-0.20.0
0.20.4
0.60.8
1.0
1920 1960 2000Year
T e m p e r a
t u r e
C h a
n g e
( C )
Northern vs. Southern Latitude
Northern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere
1920 1960 2000Year
Land vs. Ocean
LandOcean
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Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft? Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4
in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr 2
If acceleration continues, could result in 12in/century sea level rise
Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise areunrealistic
Recently, the California State LandsCommission said that sea levels could rise55 inches this century, inundating ports
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Changing Sea Levels
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000-20
-10
0
10
20
R e l a
t i v e
S e a L e v e l
( c m )
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
Amsterdam, NetherlandsBrest, FranceSwinoujscie, Poland
Gl o b
al T em
p er a
t ur e
C h an
g e
How Much Temperature
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How Much TemperatureIncrease?
Global warming alarmists propose upto 9 C increase this century
Two studies put the minimum at 1.5 Cand maximum at 4.5 C or 6.2 C
Another study puts the minimum at2.5 C
Predictions Vs Reality
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Predictions Vs. Reality
T ( C )
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
-0.4
Date1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019
Annual Mean Global Temperature Change
OBSERVEDSCENARIO ASCENARIO BSCENARIO C
Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241.
Exponential Increase in carbon emissions
Moderate reduction in carbon emissions
Drastic reduction in carbon emissions
Observed temps through 1988
Temperature Extrapolation
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Temperature Extrapolation
T ( C )1.5
1.0
0.5
0
-0.4
Date1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
2.5
2.0
1960
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Conclusions
Global warming is happening Most warming is probably the result of
human activities There will be positive and negative
(mostly) repercussions from globalwarming
The costs to mitigate global warmingwill be high better spent elsewhere?