Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Lecture 9Population
Prof. Paczkowski
Rutgers University
Spring Semester, 2009
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 1 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
ReadingAssignments
Part I
Reading Assignments
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 2 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
ReadingAssignments
Reading Assignments
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 3 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Introduction
Part II
Introduction
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 4 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Introduction
Introduction
Let’s consider some data on population and economic growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 5 / 38
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5Africa
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Asia Central-NorthAmerica
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Europe Oceania
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5South
America
Years
Ann
ual G
row
th (%
)Population Growth Rates
Median of Rates
Year-over-Year Growth, 1966-1990
Real GDP per Worker Growth Ratesvs. Population Growth Rates
Average Annual Population Growth Rates (%)
Ave
rage
Ann
ual R
eal G
DP
per
Wor
ker G
row
th R
ates
(%)
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
02
4
Source: Penn World Tables, v5.6Data: Real GDP per Worker1950-1990n = 46 countriesLine is LOWESS Smooth showing trend
VENEZUEHONDURAS
UGANDANICARAGUA
TURKEY
EGYPTINDIA
SRI LANKAARGENTINA
U.S.A.
ICELAND
URUGUAY
JAPAN
SPAINPORTUGAL
DENMARK
FRANCE
NORWAY
Call: lm(formula = RGDPGrowth ~ POPGrowth, data = x)Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -3.528 -0.7335 0.05769 0.8061 2.753
Coefficients:Value Std. t- Pr(>|t|)
Error Value(Intercept) 3.4961 0.3565 9.8053 0.0000POPGrowth -0.7004 0.1741 -4.0233 0.0002
Residual standard error: 1.166 on 44 degrees of freedomMultiple R-Squared: 0.2689 F-statistic: 16.19 on 1 and 44 degrees of freedom, the p-value is 0.0002224
Correlation of Coefficients:(Intercept)
POPGrowth -0.8762
Elasticity:-0.56
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Part III
Population Views
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 9 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Population Views
For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated theinfluence of population change on economic growth
Three alternative positions. . .
1 Population growth restricts economic growth (PessimisticView)
2 Population growth promotes economic growth (OptimisticView)
3 Population growth is independent of economic growth(Neutralist View)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 10 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Population Views
For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated theinfluence of population change on economic growth
Three alternative positions. . .
1 Population growth restricts economic growth (PessimisticView)
2 Population growth promotes economic growth (OptimisticView)
3 Population growth is independent of economic growth(Neutralist View)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 10 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Population Views
For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated theinfluence of population change on economic growth
Three alternative positions. . .
1 Population growth restricts economic growth (PessimisticView)
2 Population growth promotes economic growth (OptimisticView)
3 Population growth is independent of economic growth(Neutralist View)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 10 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Population Views
For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated theinfluence of population change on economic growth
Three alternative positions. . .1 Population growth restricts economic growth (Pessimistic
View)
2 Population growth promotes economic growth (OptimisticView)
3 Population growth is independent of economic growth(Neutralist View)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 10 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Population Views
For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated theinfluence of population change on economic growth
Three alternative positions. . .1 Population growth restricts economic growth (Pessimistic
View)2 Population growth promotes economic growth (Optimistic
View)
3 Population growth is independent of economic growth(Neutralist View)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 10 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Population Views
For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated theinfluence of population change on economic growth
Three alternative positions. . .1 Population growth restricts economic growth (Pessimistic
View)2 Population growth promotes economic growth (Optimistic
View)3 Population growth is independent of economic growth
(Neutralist View)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 10 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View
Population growth restricts economic growth
Traces its lineage to Malthus
Malthus’ pessimism remains with us
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich opened his influential book,The Population Bomb, with the definitely Malthusianassertion that. . .
Paul Ehrlich
”The battle...is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of peopleare going to starve to death.”
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 11 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View
Population growth restricts economic growth
Traces its lineage to Malthus
Malthus’ pessimism remains with us
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich opened his influential book,The Population Bomb, with the definitely Malthusianassertion that. . .
Paul Ehrlich
”The battle...is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of peopleare going to starve to death.”
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 11 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View
Population growth restricts economic growth
Traces its lineage to Malthus
Malthus’ pessimism remains with us
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich opened his influential book,The Population Bomb, with the definitely Malthusianassertion that. . .
Paul Ehrlich
”The battle...is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of peopleare going to starve to death.”
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 11 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View
Population growth restricts economic growth
Traces its lineage to Malthus
Malthus’ pessimism remains with us
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich opened his influential book,The Population Bomb, with the definitely Malthusianassertion that. . .
Paul Ehrlich
”The battle...is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of peopleare going to starve to death.”
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 11 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View
Population growth restricts economic growth
Traces its lineage to Malthus
Malthus’ pessimism remains with us
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich opened his influential book,The Population Bomb, with the definitely Malthusianassertion that. . .
Paul Ehrlich
”The battle...is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of peopleare going to starve to death.”
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 11 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View
Population growth restricts economic growth
Traces its lineage to Malthus
Malthus’ pessimism remains with us
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich opened his influential book,The Population Bomb, with the definitely Malthusianassertion that. . .
Paul Ehrlich
”The battle...is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of peopleare going to starve to death.”
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 11 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View(Continued)
The World’s Billions1
1 billion in 18042 billion in 1927 (123 years later)3 billion in 1960 (33 years later)4 billion in 1974 (14 years later)5 billion in 1987 (13 years later)6 billion in 1999 (12 years later)7 billion in 2012 (13 years later)8 billion in 2026 (14 years later)9 billion in 2043 (17 years later)
1Source: Population Division, Department of Economic and SocialAffairs, UN Secretariat. Population Newsletter No 66, December 1998; andUnited Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 12 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View(Continued)
The effect of population numbers on the demand for fixedresources is obvious. There is also a potentially negativeimpact on capital intensity.
In principle, higher population numbers require morehomes, factories and infrastructure
In the long run, such capital can be constructed, butperiods of rapid population growth may well lead toreductions in capital per worker and lower living standardsdue to reallocations
When population growth is rapid, a large part ofinvestment is used to supply the needs of the growingpopulation rather than enabling an increase in real incomeper capita
Assisted-living quartersHealth care
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 14 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View(Continued)
The effect of population numbers on the demand for fixedresources is obvious. There is also a potentially negativeimpact on capital intensity.
In principle, higher population numbers require morehomes, factories and infrastructure
In the long run, such capital can be constructed, butperiods of rapid population growth may well lead toreductions in capital per worker and lower living standardsdue to reallocations
When population growth is rapid, a large part ofinvestment is used to supply the needs of the growingpopulation rather than enabling an increase in real incomeper capita
Assisted-living quartersHealth care
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 14 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View(Continued)
The effect of population numbers on the demand for fixedresources is obvious. There is also a potentially negativeimpact on capital intensity.
In principle, higher population numbers require morehomes, factories and infrastructure
In the long run, such capital can be constructed, butperiods of rapid population growth may well lead toreductions in capital per worker and lower living standardsdue to reallocations
When population growth is rapid, a large part ofinvestment is used to supply the needs of the growingpopulation rather than enabling an increase in real incomeper capita
Assisted-living quartersHealth care
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 14 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View(Continued)
The effect of population numbers on the demand for fixedresources is obvious. There is also a potentially negativeimpact on capital intensity.
In principle, higher population numbers require morehomes, factories and infrastructure
In the long run, such capital can be constructed, butperiods of rapid population growth may well lead toreductions in capital per worker and lower living standardsdue to reallocations
When population growth is rapid, a large part ofinvestment is used to supply the needs of the growingpopulation rather than enabling an increase in real incomeper capita
Assisted-living quartersHealth care
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 14 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View(Continued)
The effect of population numbers on the demand for fixedresources is obvious. There is also a potentially negativeimpact on capital intensity.
In principle, higher population numbers require morehomes, factories and infrastructure
In the long run, such capital can be constructed, butperiods of rapid population growth may well lead toreductions in capital per worker and lower living standardsdue to reallocations
When population growth is rapid, a large part ofinvestment is used to supply the needs of the growingpopulation rather than enabling an increase in real incomeper capita
Assisted-living quarters
Health care
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 14 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Pessimistic View(Continued)
The effect of population numbers on the demand for fixedresources is obvious. There is also a potentially negativeimpact on capital intensity.
In principle, higher population numbers require morehomes, factories and infrastructure
In the long run, such capital can be constructed, butperiods of rapid population growth may well lead toreductions in capital per worker and lower living standardsdue to reallocations
When population growth is rapid, a large part ofinvestment is used to supply the needs of the growingpopulation rather than enabling an increase in real incomeper capita
Assisted-living quartersHealth care
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 14 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View
By the early 1980s, economists were beginning to reject thepessimistic view
Empirical research had weakened the pessimists’ case
Economic theory began to give increasing importance totechnology and human capital accumulation compared tothe old key growth factor: physical capital
Recall Solow’s Neoclassical Model and the discussionsabout education
Demographic theory also started to look to theintermediate and long term, where the short-term effectsof population growth were likely to have at least partlysmoothed (i.e., slowed down)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 15 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View
By the early 1980s, economists were beginning to reject thepessimistic view
Empirical research had weakened the pessimists’ case
Economic theory began to give increasing importance totechnology and human capital accumulation compared tothe old key growth factor: physical capital
Recall Solow’s Neoclassical Model and the discussionsabout education
Demographic theory also started to look to theintermediate and long term, where the short-term effectsof population growth were likely to have at least partlysmoothed (i.e., slowed down)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 15 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View
By the early 1980s, economists were beginning to reject thepessimistic view
Empirical research had weakened the pessimists’ caseEconomic theory began to give increasing importance totechnology and human capital accumulation compared tothe old key growth factor: physical capital
Recall Solow’s Neoclassical Model and the discussionsabout education
Demographic theory also started to look to theintermediate and long term, where the short-term effectsof population growth were likely to have at least partlysmoothed (i.e., slowed down)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 15 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View
By the early 1980s, economists were beginning to reject thepessimistic view
Empirical research had weakened the pessimists’ caseEconomic theory began to give increasing importance totechnology and human capital accumulation compared tothe old key growth factor: physical capital
Recall Solow’s Neoclassical Model and the discussionsabout education
Demographic theory also started to look to theintermediate and long term, where the short-term effectsof population growth were likely to have at least partlysmoothed (i.e., slowed down)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 15 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View
By the early 1980s, economists were beginning to reject thepessimistic view
Empirical research had weakened the pessimists’ caseEconomic theory began to give increasing importance totechnology and human capital accumulation compared tothe old key growth factor: physical capital
Recall Solow’s Neoclassical Model and the discussionsabout education
Demographic theory also started to look to theintermediate and long term, where the short-term effectsof population growth were likely to have at least partlysmoothed (i.e., slowed down)
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 15 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
In response to these developments, organizations like theNational Academy of Sciences began to revise their earlierviews, while economists, with their greater faith in markets’ability to respond to population growth, gained prominenceover the social and biological scientists who previouslydominated population thinking.
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 16 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
Recent history has cast further doubt on the pessimists’ theory
In the last 30 years when the world’s population hasdoubled, per capita incomes have increased by about twothirds
Famines have occurred, but Ehrlich’s ”hundreds of millionsof people” have not starved
The famines that have occurred were largely caused bypoverty and lack of funds to buy food among a section ofthe population rather than any absolute shortage of food
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 17 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
Recent history has cast further doubt on the pessimists’ theory
In the last 30 years when the world’s population hasdoubled, per capita incomes have increased by about twothirds
Famines have occurred, but Ehrlich’s ”hundreds of millionsof people” have not starved
The famines that have occurred were largely caused bypoverty and lack of funds to buy food among a section ofthe population rather than any absolute shortage of food
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 17 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
Recent history has cast further doubt on the pessimists’ theory
In the last 30 years when the world’s population hasdoubled, per capita incomes have increased by about twothirds
Famines have occurred, but Ehrlich’s ”hundreds of millionsof people” have not starved
The famines that have occurred were largely caused bypoverty and lack of funds to buy food among a section ofthe population rather than any absolute shortage of food
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 17 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
Recent history has cast further doubt on the pessimists’ theory
In the last 30 years when the world’s population hasdoubled, per capita incomes have increased by about twothirds
Famines have occurred, but Ehrlich’s ”hundreds of millionsof people” have not starved
The famines that have occurred were largely caused bypoverty and lack of funds to buy food among a section ofthe population rather than any absolute shortage of food
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 17 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
Technological progress, in both agriculture and industry, hasbeen more rapid than any other time in human history
There have been equally dramatic social and institutionalinnovations
The way people work, the standard of their education andhealth and the extent to which they participate in thepolitical process
Rather than being constrained by fixed resources, theprices of many raw materials are in long-term decline, andsome parts of the economy are becoming dematerialized asknowledge becomes an increasingly vital asset
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 18 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
Technological progress, in both agriculture and industry, hasbeen more rapid than any other time in human history
There have been equally dramatic social and institutionalinnovations
The way people work, the standard of their education andhealth and the extent to which they participate in thepolitical process
Rather than being constrained by fixed resources, theprices of many raw materials are in long-term decline, andsome parts of the economy are becoming dematerialized asknowledge becomes an increasingly vital asset
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 18 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
Technological progress, in both agriculture and industry, hasbeen more rapid than any other time in human history
There have been equally dramatic social and institutionalinnovations
The way people work, the standard of their education andhealth and the extent to which they participate in thepolitical process
Rather than being constrained by fixed resources, theprices of many raw materials are in long-term decline, andsome parts of the economy are becoming dematerialized asknowledge becomes an increasingly vital asset
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 18 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
Technological progress, in both agriculture and industry, hasbeen more rapid than any other time in human history
There have been equally dramatic social and institutionalinnovations
The way people work, the standard of their education andhealth and the extent to which they participate in thepolitical process
Rather than being constrained by fixed resources, theprices of many raw materials are in long-term decline, andsome parts of the economy are becoming dematerialized asknowledge becomes an increasingly vital asset
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 18 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
There are those who support larger populations becausepopulation growth can be an economic asset
As populations increase, so does the stock of humaningenuity
Larger societies, with the capacity to take advantage ofeconomies of scale, are better positioned to develop,exploit, and disseminate the increased flow of knowledge
People are resourceful and are stimulated to innovate,especially in adversity
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 19 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
There are those who support larger populations becausepopulation growth can be an economic asset
As populations increase, so does the stock of humaningenuity
Larger societies, with the capacity to take advantage ofeconomies of scale, are better positioned to develop,exploit, and disseminate the increased flow of knowledge
People are resourceful and are stimulated to innovate,especially in adversity
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 19 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
There are those who support larger populations becausepopulation growth can be an economic asset
As populations increase, so does the stock of humaningenuity
Larger societies, with the capacity to take advantage ofeconomies of scale, are better positioned to develop,exploit, and disseminate the increased flow of knowledge
People are resourceful and are stimulated to innovate,especially in adversity
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 19 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Optimistic View(Continued)
There are those who support larger populations becausepopulation growth can be an economic asset
As populations increase, so does the stock of humaningenuity
Larger societies, with the capacity to take advantage ofeconomies of scale, are better positioned to develop,exploit, and disseminate the increased flow of knowledge
People are resourceful and are stimulated to innovate,especially in adversity
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 19 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Neutralist View
Most economic analysis has examined the statistical correlationbetween population and economic growth and found littlesignificant connection
Though countries with rapidly growing populations tend tohave more slowly growing economies, this negativecorrelation 2 typically disappears (or even reversesdirection) once other factors such as country size,openness to trade, educational attainment of thepopulation, and the quality of civil and politicalinstitutions are taken into account
In other words, when controlling for other factors, there islittle cross-country evidence that population growthimpedes economic growth
This result seems to justify population neutralism
2We saw this in the regression model aboveProf. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 20 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Neutralist View
Most economic analysis has examined the statistical correlationbetween population and economic growth and found littlesignificant connection
Though countries with rapidly growing populations tend tohave more slowly growing economies, this negativecorrelation 2 typically disappears (or even reversesdirection) once other factors such as country size,openness to trade, educational attainment of thepopulation, and the quality of civil and politicalinstitutions are taken into account
In other words, when controlling for other factors, there islittle cross-country evidence that population growthimpedes economic growth
This result seems to justify population neutralism
2We saw this in the regression model aboveProf. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 20 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Neutralist View
Most economic analysis has examined the statistical correlationbetween population and economic growth and found littlesignificant connection
Though countries with rapidly growing populations tend tohave more slowly growing economies, this negativecorrelation 2 typically disappears (or even reversesdirection) once other factors such as country size,openness to trade, educational attainment of thepopulation, and the quality of civil and politicalinstitutions are taken into account
In other words, when controlling for other factors, there islittle cross-country evidence that population growthimpedes economic growth
This result seems to justify population neutralism
2We saw this in the regression model aboveProf. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 20 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
PessimisticView
OptimisticView
NeutralistView
Neutralist View
Most economic analysis has examined the statistical correlationbetween population and economic growth and found littlesignificant connection
Though countries with rapidly growing populations tend tohave more slowly growing economies, this negativecorrelation 2 typically disappears (or even reversesdirection) once other factors such as country size,openness to trade, educational attainment of thepopulation, and the quality of civil and politicalinstitutions are taken into account
In other words, when controlling for other factors, there islittle cross-country evidence that population growthimpedes economic growth
This result seems to justify population neutralism
2We saw this in the regression model aboveProf. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 20 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications Part IV
Some Facts
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 21 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts
Aging
Number of elderly (65+) has increased more than three-foldsince 1950
130M (4% of global population) in 1950 to 419M (6.9%)in 2000
Increasing 8M/year
Will reach 24M/year in 2030
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 22 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts
AgingNumber of elderly (65+) has increased more than three-foldsince 1950
130M (4% of global population) in 1950 to 419M (6.9%)in 2000
Increasing 8M/year
Will reach 24M/year in 2030
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 22 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts
AgingNumber of elderly (65+) has increased more than three-foldsince 1950
130M (4% of global population) in 1950 to 419M (6.9%)in 2000
Increasing 8M/year
Will reach 24M/year in 2030
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 22 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts
AgingNumber of elderly (65+) has increased more than three-foldsince 1950
130M (4% of global population) in 1950 to 419M (6.9%)in 2000
Increasing 8M/year
Will reach 24M/year in 2030
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 22 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts(Continued)
A demographic transition is taking place: declining mortalityand fertility
In much of the developing world, a demographic transitionis under way, accelerating with the declines in mortalitythat began around the end of WWII
Improvements in medicine and public health, including theintroduction of antibiotics such as penicillin, treatmentsfor diseases such as tuberculosis and diarrhea,and the useof DDT, which helps control malaria, have contained oreradicated diseases that once killed millions of people.
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 23 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts(Continued)
A demographic transition is taking place: declining mortalityand fertility
In much of the developing world, a demographic transitionis under way, accelerating with the declines in mortalitythat began around the end of WWII
Improvements in medicine and public health, including theintroduction of antibiotics such as penicillin, treatmentsfor diseases such as tuberculosis and diarrhea,and the useof DDT, which helps control malaria, have contained oreradicated diseases that once killed millions of people.
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 23 / 38
Page 18
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts(Continued)
Worlds oldest nations
Italy with more than 18% of the population over 65
Compared with 8% in 1950
Also above 17%. . .
Sweden, Belgium, Greece, Japan
Europe has the highest proportion of elderly (over 65) andwill remain the global leader well into the 21st century
Percentage over 65 in Asia, Latin America/Caribbean, andNear East/N. Africa will more than triple by 2050
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 25 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts(Continued)
Worlds oldest nations
Italy with more than 18% of the population over 65
Compared with 8% in 1950
Also above 17%. . .
Sweden, Belgium, Greece, Japan
Europe has the highest proportion of elderly (over 65) andwill remain the global leader well into the 21st century
Percentage over 65 in Asia, Latin America/Caribbean, andNear East/N. Africa will more than triple by 2050
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 25 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts(Continued)
Worlds oldest nations
Italy with more than 18% of the population over 65
Compared with 8% in 1950
Also above 17%. . .
Sweden, Belgium, Greece, Japan
Europe has the highest proportion of elderly (over 65) andwill remain the global leader well into the 21st century
Percentage over 65 in Asia, Latin America/Caribbean, andNear East/N. Africa will more than triple by 2050
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 25 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts(Continued)
Worlds oldest nations
Italy with more than 18% of the population over 65
Compared with 8% in 1950
Also above 17%. . .
Sweden, Belgium, Greece, Japan
Europe has the highest proportion of elderly (over 65) andwill remain the global leader well into the 21st century
Percentage over 65 in Asia, Latin America/Caribbean, andNear East/N. Africa will more than triple by 2050
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 25 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts(Continued)
Worlds oldest nations
Italy with more than 18% of the population over 65
Compared with 8% in 1950
Also above 17%. . .
Sweden, Belgium, Greece, Japan
Europe has the highest proportion of elderly (over 65) andwill remain the global leader well into the 21st century
Percentage over 65 in Asia, Latin America/Caribbean, andNear East/N. Africa will more than triple by 2050
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 25 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts(Continued)
Worlds oldest nations
Italy with more than 18% of the population over 65
Compared with 8% in 1950
Also above 17%. . .
Sweden, Belgium, Greece, Japan
Europe has the highest proportion of elderly (over 65) andwill remain the global leader well into the 21st century
Percentage over 65 in Asia, Latin America/Caribbean, andNear East/N. Africa will more than triple by 2050
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 25 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Some Facts(Continued)
Worlds oldest nations
Italy with more than 18% of the population over 65
Compared with 8% in 1950
Also above 17%. . .
Sweden, Belgium, Greece, Japan
Europe has the highest proportion of elderly (over 65) andwill remain the global leader well into the 21st century
Percentage over 65 in Asia, Latin America/Caribbean, andNear East/N. Africa will more than triple by 2050
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 25 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications
Some implications of high population growth are. . .
Declining labor force participation
Income security
Ensure standard of livingShelter from risks
Health benefits
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 26 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications
Some implications of high population growth are. . .
Declining labor force participation
Income security
Ensure standard of livingShelter from risks
Health benefits
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 26 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications
Some implications of high population growth are. . .
Declining labor force participation
Income security
Ensure standard of livingShelter from risks
Health benefits
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 26 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications
Some implications of high population growth are. . .
Declining labor force participation
Income security
Ensure standard of living
Shelter from risks
Health benefits
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 26 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications
Some implications of high population growth are. . .
Declining labor force participation
Income security
Ensure standard of livingShelter from risks
Health benefits
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 26 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications
Some implications of high population growth are. . .
Declining labor force participation
Income security
Ensure standard of livingShelter from risks
Health benefits
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 26 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Demographic Dividend - Individual economic behavior varies atdifferent stages of life
Life cycle concept discussed earlier
Changes in age structure can significantly affect nationaleconomic performance
Aging population of the U.S. is frequently in the news,especially regarding
Social SecurityAge discrimination
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 27 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Demographic Dividend - Individual economic behavior varies atdifferent stages of life
Life cycle concept discussed earlier
Changes in age structure can significantly affect nationaleconomic performance
Aging population of the U.S. is frequently in the news,especially regarding
Social SecurityAge discrimination
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 27 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Demographic Dividend - Individual economic behavior varies atdifferent stages of life
Life cycle concept discussed earlier
Changes in age structure can significantly affect nationaleconomic performance
Aging population of the U.S. is frequently in the news,especially regarding
Social SecurityAge discrimination
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 27 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Demographic Dividend - Individual economic behavior varies atdifferent stages of life
Life cycle concept discussed earlier
Changes in age structure can significantly affect nationaleconomic performance
Aging population of the U.S. is frequently in the news,especially regarding
Social SecurityAge discrimination
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 27 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Demographic Dividend - Individual economic behavior varies atdifferent stages of life
Life cycle concept discussed earlier
Changes in age structure can significantly affect nationaleconomic performance
Aging population of the U.S. is frequently in the news,especially regarding
Social Security
Age discrimination
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 27 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Demographic Dividend - Individual economic behavior varies atdifferent stages of life
Life cycle concept discussed earlier
Changes in age structure can significantly affect nationaleconomic performance
Aging population of the U.S. is frequently in the news,especially regarding
Social SecurityAge discrimination
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 27 / 38
Page 22Time
Pric
e ($
)
AnnouncementDay
RumorStarts
Old
Pric
eN
ewP
rice
Incorporation of Anticipated InformationBefore Actual Announcement Date
Information Spreads in the Market
Profit Opportunities Captured
Life Cycle Stages and Saving
Saving Increases•Frees resources•Stimulates growth
Dissaving Increases•Commands resources•Hinders growth
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Nations with a high proportion of young or old dependentstend to devote a relatively high proportion of resources to thesegroups, often limiting economic growth
Less productive members must be supported, cared for
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 29 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Nations with a high proportion of young or old dependentstend to devote a relatively high proportion of resources to thesegroups, often limiting economic growth
Less productive members must be supported, cared for
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 29 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
By contrast, nations in which a relatively large share of thepopulation has reached the prime ages for working and savingmay enjoy a boost to income growth stemming from the highershare of the population that is working, from the acceleratedaccumulation of capital, and from reduced spending ondependents
This phenomenon is known as the demographic dividend
The combined effect of this ”dividend” and effectivepolicies in other areas can stimulate economic growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 30 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
By contrast, nations in which a relatively large share of thepopulation has reached the prime ages for working and savingmay enjoy a boost to income growth stemming from the highershare of the population that is working, from the acceleratedaccumulation of capital, and from reduced spending ondependents
This phenomenon is known as the demographic dividend
The combined effect of this ”dividend” and effectivepolicies in other areas can stimulate economic growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 30 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
By contrast, nations in which a relatively large share of thepopulation has reached the prime ages for working and savingmay enjoy a boost to income growth stemming from the highershare of the population that is working, from the acceleratedaccumulation of capital, and from reduced spending ondependents
This phenomenon is known as the demographic dividend
The combined effect of this ”dividend” and effectivepolicies in other areas can stimulate economic growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 30 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
The demographic transition and its impact on economicdevelopment are playing out differently in different regions ofthe world
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 31 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
East Asian nations have experienced the most success in”reaping” dividends from reduced fertility rates
This ”economic miracle” shows how reduced fertility canhelp to create conditions for robust economic growth
Declining mortality, followed by declines in fertility,resulted in a rapid demographic transition in the regionbetween 1965 and 1990
As a result, the working-age population grew four timesfaster than the dependent (youth and elderly) population
The demographic dividend fueled the region’s spectaculareconomic boom
Real per capita income growth averaged 6 percent per yearbetween 1965 and 1990The demographic dividend accounted for approximatelyone-fourth to two-fifths of this growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 32 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
East Asian nations have experienced the most success in”reaping” dividends from reduced fertility rates
This ”economic miracle” shows how reduced fertility canhelp to create conditions for robust economic growth
Declining mortality, followed by declines in fertility,resulted in a rapid demographic transition in the regionbetween 1965 and 1990
As a result, the working-age population grew four timesfaster than the dependent (youth and elderly) population
The demographic dividend fueled the region’s spectaculareconomic boom
Real per capita income growth averaged 6 percent per yearbetween 1965 and 1990The demographic dividend accounted for approximatelyone-fourth to two-fifths of this growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 32 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
East Asian nations have experienced the most success in”reaping” dividends from reduced fertility rates
This ”economic miracle” shows how reduced fertility canhelp to create conditions for robust economic growth
Declining mortality, followed by declines in fertility,resulted in a rapid demographic transition in the regionbetween 1965 and 1990
As a result, the working-age population grew four timesfaster than the dependent (youth and elderly) population
The demographic dividend fueled the region’s spectaculareconomic boom
Real per capita income growth averaged 6 percent per yearbetween 1965 and 1990The demographic dividend accounted for approximatelyone-fourth to two-fifths of this growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 32 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
East Asian nations have experienced the most success in”reaping” dividends from reduced fertility rates
This ”economic miracle” shows how reduced fertility canhelp to create conditions for robust economic growth
Declining mortality, followed by declines in fertility,resulted in a rapid demographic transition in the regionbetween 1965 and 1990
As a result, the working-age population grew four timesfaster than the dependent (youth and elderly) population
The demographic dividend fueled the region’s spectaculareconomic boom
Real per capita income growth averaged 6 percent per yearbetween 1965 and 1990The demographic dividend accounted for approximatelyone-fourth to two-fifths of this growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 32 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
East Asian nations have experienced the most success in”reaping” dividends from reduced fertility rates
This ”economic miracle” shows how reduced fertility canhelp to create conditions for robust economic growth
Declining mortality, followed by declines in fertility,resulted in a rapid demographic transition in the regionbetween 1965 and 1990
As a result, the working-age population grew four timesfaster than the dependent (youth and elderly) population
The demographic dividend fueled the region’s spectaculareconomic boom
Real per capita income growth averaged 6 percent per yearbetween 1965 and 1990The demographic dividend accounted for approximatelyone-fourth to two-fifths of this growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 32 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
East Asian nations have experienced the most success in”reaping” dividends from reduced fertility rates
This ”economic miracle” shows how reduced fertility canhelp to create conditions for robust economic growth
Declining mortality, followed by declines in fertility,resulted in a rapid demographic transition in the regionbetween 1965 and 1990
As a result, the working-age population grew four timesfaster than the dependent (youth and elderly) population
The demographic dividend fueled the region’s spectaculareconomic boom
Real per capita income growth averaged 6 percent per yearbetween 1965 and 1990
The demographic dividend accounted for approximatelyone-fourth to two-fifths of this growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 32 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
East Asian nations have experienced the most success in”reaping” dividends from reduced fertility rates
This ”economic miracle” shows how reduced fertility canhelp to create conditions for robust economic growth
Declining mortality, followed by declines in fertility,resulted in a rapid demographic transition in the regionbetween 1965 and 1990
As a result, the working-age population grew four timesfaster than the dependent (youth and elderly) population
The demographic dividend fueled the region’s spectaculareconomic boom
Real per capita income growth averaged 6 percent per yearbetween 1965 and 1990The demographic dividend accounted for approximatelyone-fourth to two-fifths of this growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 32 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Latin America has undergone a fairly sharp demographictransition but, because of a weak policy environment, has notcapitalized on it
The demographic transitions in South Central andSoutheast Asia started later and have been lesspronounced than that in East Asia; these regions are onlybeginning to enjoy the economic benefits of demographicchange
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 33 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Latin America has undergone a fairly sharp demographictransition but, because of a weak policy environment, has notcapitalized on it
The demographic transitions in South Central andSoutheast Asia started later and have been lesspronounced than that in East Asia; these regions are onlybeginning to enjoy the economic benefits of demographicchange
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 33 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
The Middle East and North Africa are still in earlier phases ofthe demographic transition, and indeed many parts ofsub-Saharan Africa have seen almost no decrease intraditionally high fertility rates.
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 34 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced an extremely sluggishdemographic transition
Traditionally high fertility rates and large family sizes havepersisted in the face of improvements in infant and childmortality, and now the ravages of HIV/AIDS are depletingthe working-age population
As a result, the average age of the population hasremained low, and there has been no demographic dividendto help catalyze a sustained period of economic growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 35 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced an extremely sluggishdemographic transition
Traditionally high fertility rates and large family sizes havepersisted in the face of improvements in infant and childmortality, and now the ravages of HIV/AIDS are depletingthe working-age population
As a result, the average age of the population hasremained low, and there has been no demographic dividendto help catalyze a sustained period of economic growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 35 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Some Facts
Implications
Implications(Continued)
Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced an extremely sluggishdemographic transition
Traditionally high fertility rates and large family sizes havepersisted in the face of improvements in infant and childmortality, and now the ravages of HIV/AIDS are depletingthe working-age population
As a result, the average age of the population hasremained low, and there has been no demographic dividendto help catalyze a sustained period of economic growth
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 35 / 38
Page 32
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Part V
Key Words Index
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 37 / 38
Lecture 9Population
Prof.Paczkowski
Key Words Index
Key Words Page
Malthus 11Paul Erhlich 11Sub-Saharan Africa 35
Prof. Paczkowski (Rutgers University) Lecture 9 Population Spring Semester, 2009 38 / 38
