Lecture Slides Lecture 19 International Influences BW

7/28/2019 Lecture Slides Lecture 19 International Influences BW

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International Influences

The Role of the External Environment onDemocracy and Democratization



Cultural Diffusion of Norms and Values

n Colonial rule (diffusion of British rule of law anddemocratic norms)

n Contemporary diffusion through mass media,international exchanges, students studying abroad,Internet, blogs



Demonstration Effects

n Snowballing or imitation effect of other transitions.

Diffusion of models, movements and techniques(e.g.

“

people power revolutions”

)n East Asia after the Philippines, 1986 (Korea, Taiwan,

Burma)n Eastern Europe, 1989



Zeitgeist (Spirit of the Times)n Models of government gain and lose legitimacy in par

depending on the image of power and success, or decline and failure, of different prominent statesn Which systems are worth emulating?

n U.S. , China, India, Russia, Singaporen

Fascism, 1920s, 30sn Communism, 1940s, 50s, 60sn Iranian revolution, 1979



Demonstration Effects

n Success of democracies (US, Europe)n Travails of democracies (Japan, US, Europe)n Authoritarian success?

“

Singapore model” “

China model”

?





Regional Pressures and Normsn Organization of American States (OAS)

n 1991: Santiago Commitment (Resolution 1080)n 1992: OAS Charter amendment

(ability to suspend a member state that defects from democracy)n 2001: Inter-American Democratic Charter

(strong democratic conditions for membership)



Regional Defense of Democracy: OAS

n Peru 1992: Condemns autogolpe , compels resto

of a formal constitutional order with new electionsn Guatemala 1993: Reverses an attempted auton Paraguay 1996: Preempts incipient military coupn Venezuela 2000-present: failure to

stem rollback of democracy



Organization of African Unity (OAU) to the African Union (AU)

n Continued predominance of the norm of “

non-intervein the internal affairs of a member state: pure sovereignty

n But the beginning of sanctions for punishingthe overthrow of elected governments

(to deter military, not civilian coups)n African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM)



APRM, to meet goals of NEPAD,New Partnership for African Development

n Peer review of individual countries that agree to beassessed, on four dimensions

n Democratic governancen Corporate governancen Economic managementn Socioeconomic development

n Emphasis on“

consensus”

rather than

“

review”

, voluntary compliance,sympathetic peers



International Economic Relationsn Economic dependence, volatility of export earnings, lack o

access to markets à poor or fluctuating economicperformance, legitimacy problems

n Loss of economic sovereignty (globalization), legitimacyproblems

n Economic assistance to low-income or struggling

democracies (Costa Rica, Botswana).Egypt, Tunisia, etc. today.



Foreign Aidn Positive effect of aid to democracies in needn Negative effect of strategic assistance to support or

stabilize friendly dictatorshipsn Taiwan, Korea, Thailand, 1950s-70s

(but aid in these cases promoted development)n Latin American military dictatorships: Brazil, Argentina, n Africa/Middle East: Zaire, Kenya, Somalia,

Ethiopia, Iran (Shah)n Today: Pakistan, Kazakhstan,

Egypt, Jordan



Effort to Reorganize Foreign Aid

n Millennium Challenge Account (MCA)n “ selectivity ” , rewards for better governancen Condition other economic benefits on democracy

and good governancen Millennium Challenge Corporation

n www.mcc.govn Reorganization of Foreign Aid,

integration into Department of State



Sanctions (and threat of sanctions)Conditions for success:

n

Specific monitorable goalsn Sanctions that hurt the regime more than the people

(military sanctions, targeted sanctions on regimeelites)

n Linkage to Western democracies(economic, social, cultural, geopolitical)

n Broad international participation



Sanctions (and threat of sanctions)Levers:

n

Aidn Debt relief n Traden Diplomacy

n Elite travel and other benefits



Cases of sanctionsn Moderate to significant success

n

South Africa, 1980sn Kenya, 1991-2002 and 2008n Latin America, late 1970s: military sanctions



Cases of sanctionsn Failures

n

Cuba, 1962-presentn Burma, 1989-presentn North Korean China, Most Favored Nation status with US



DiplomacyMobilization of diplomatic pressure and persuasion (with

possible threats of sanctions or penalties)

Carter Administration (1977-81)n isolation of Argentine militaryn deter vote fraud in DR





Reagan Administration (1981-1989)n Philippines (Marcos), 1986n South Korea (Chun Doo Hwan), 1987n Chile (Pinochet), 1988, plebisciten Deter military coup attempts in

Bolivia, Central America, South Africa





Bush Administration (1989-1993)n Peaceful reunification of Germanyn Support for Eastern Europe transitionsn African transitionsn Aid freezes, multilateral pressure





Clinton Administration (1993-2001)n NATO Expansionn aid to Russian pressure on Serbian regime

à color revolution





G.W. Bush Administration (2001-2009)n democratization by force in Iraq & Afghanistan

What diplomats can do on the ground



What diplomats can do on the groundto support democracy

n Diplomatic protection , immunity for democracy and

human rights activistsn Pressure: Facilitate or discourage access to the

diplomat’

s home capital by host country officialsn Sanction: Threaten targeted sanctions (e.g. threat to

freeze offshore assets of Ukrainian officialsduring the 2004 Orange Revolution)




n Public diplomacy , supporting democratic values, idea

and techniques, informing the local public n Aid : Small-grant seed money for independent media &

human rights & democracy groupsn Convening : provide a neutral ground for

different factions to dialogue, negotiate





n Solidarity in symbolic, moral support of human rights

defenders and democratic activists on trial or facingrepressionn Reporting back to the home capital to influence foreign

policy





n Engagement and dialogue with the regime to encou

human rights progress, democratic reformn Demarches: formal (private) diplomatic protests of

human rights violations, warnings against new badconduct, and appeals to remove restrictions on NGOs

and pursue new political reforms


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Lecture Slides Lecture 19 International Influences BW

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