Lecture Three

Power Transition and World War I

Why Kill Franz?• Franz Ferdinand Hapsburg,

Heir to the Throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire with His Wife Countess Sophie von Chotkowa und Wognin, Duchess of Hohenberg.

• Personal: “The loneliest man in Vienna.”

• Politics: A Reformist. Believed in “Trialism” that would give Austrians, Magyars (Hungary) and Slavs Equal Say in Running Empire.

Sarajevo

Visit to Sarajevo

• Franz and Sophie Travel to Sarajevo. The Trip is Necessary Because of Franz’s Duties as Inspector General of the Austrian Army.

• Both are Shot and Killed on June 28, 1914 (their 14th wedding anniversary).

• Assassinated by Gavrilo Princip, a Serbian Nationalist who Disliked Trialism.

The March to War• Austrian Ultimatum to

Serbia: “The note is being composed so that the possibility of its acceptance is practically excluded.” (German Ambassador to Vienna, Reporting to German Chancellor)

• Serbia Gets the Ultimatum on July 23; Given 48 Hours to Reply.

• Serbian Reply on 25 July Concedes Almost All Austrian Demands.

• Austrians Not Satisfied; Order for Military Mobilization Signed at 7:23 p.m 25 July.

• Austria Declares War on Serbia, 28 July, By Telegram.

Alliance System Spreads Austro-Serbian Conflict

• July 30, Russian Czar Orders Full Mobilization in Support of Serbia, their Fellow Slavs

• Germany Mobilizes and Declares War on Russia, 1 August, to Support its Ally, Austria.

• Germany Declares War on France, 3 August, Because France is Russia’s Ally.

• 4 August, Germany Invades Belgium, Beginning the War.

• German Violation of Belgian Neutrality Causes Britain to Enter War in Support of France.

French Troops in Battle

Why?

“Whoops” Theories of WWI• Fluky Nature of the Assassination• German Blank Check• The Alliance System• Military Plans and Mobilization Orders

– Russian Can’t Order Partial Mobilization

– Germany’s Schlieffen Plan

• British Wavering

Power Transition Theory

• WWI Was Not Caused by Unfortunate “But For” Occurrences, but by Change in the Structure of Power in the International State System.

• The Rise of Germany as a Challenger to British Hegemony.

• Thus, Had FF Not Been Shot at Sarajevo, WWI Might Have Taken a Different Form, But it Would Have Occurred.– Assassination, Blank Check, Alliances, etc. were Precipitating

Causes of the War– Power Transition Was the Deep Cause of the War

The 19th C. British System

• British Industrialization and Economic Power– 1760-1830, Britain accounts for 2/3 of all European

Industrial output.– In 1860, still accounts for about 20 percent of Total World

Economic Production.

• The British Empire (Upon Which the Sun Never Set)– By late 19th Century 25% of the World Under British

Control

• Naval Power As Source of Control– British Navy was More Powerful than the combined navies

of the next 3 largest countries.

Shares of World Manufacturing Output

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1750 1800 1830 1860 1880 1900 1913

Per

cen

t o

f W

orl

d T

ota

l

Britain U.S. Germany

Source: Paul Kennedy, 1988

The German Challenge

• “To remain a Great Nation or to become one, you must colonize.” (Leon Gambetta, early 20th Century French Statesman). – Germany Was a Late Arriver to State System and thus Had No

Colonies.• Dependent upon Trade for Standard of Living.• Begin to Challenge British Dominance.

– Build Navy to Challenge British Navy.– Begin to Demand Role in North Africa.– Begin to Play Large Role in Turkey (Ottoman Empire), path to British

Empire in Middle East and South Asia.

• A Diffuse Challenge: Germany would “Liberate the World from British Hegemony; would be the “champion of a new and freer international order.”

German Ambitions in WWI

Mittleuropa• Destroy French Power

• Exclude Britain from Continent

• Push Russia as Far East as Possible

• Create German Sphere of Influence in Central Europe.

– Annex French territory rich in iron ore

– Customs union with Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, and others

• Use Europe as Base For Global Empire?

American War Aims

Woodrow Wilson’s 14 Points• Freedom of the Seas (Point 2).

• National Self-determination (Points 7-13)

• Non-Discriminatory international trade (Open Colonial Markets and Colonial Raw Materials to all nations on equal basis) (Point 3)

• Restructure the International System By Creating International Organizations (Point 14).

World War I Outcome

• British Power Severely Weakened• United States Emerges as Dominant Power• Beginnings of Efforts to Restructure International

System– League of Nations– National Self-determination– Little Progress on Trade and Colonial Objectives

• Emergent Rather than Established: Had Germany Really Lost?