1
Legislator activities in parliament and electoral performance in a mixed-member
electoral system. The case of Hungary, 1998-2010
Zsófia Papp
Research Fellow
Centre for Social Sciences
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
First draft
Presented at the ECPR General Conference in Prague, 9 September 2016
Abstract
Students of legislative behaviour appear to agree with Mayhew’s starting point, and consider
MPs as ‘single minded seekers of re-election’. Consequently, most of the things MPs do in
the present are attributed to their individual desire to future re-election. However, within the
premises of legislative studies, little attention has been paid to whether MP behaviour in
parliament indeed affects electoral performance. The main question of the paper is whether
there is a connection between activities carried out by legislators and their performances at the
next elections. I wish to investigate this matter in a mixed-member electoral system
permitting multiple candidacy which produces at least two types of MPs with different sets of
incentives to act. To establish the effect of parliamentary activities on electoral outcome, I use
parliamentary activity panel data from three electoral terms. The results of the multilevel
models suggest that there is no connection between the intensity of work MPs carry out in
parliament and how they perform in single member district on the one hand, and where they
are placed on closed party lists on the other. The findings partially question the existence of
activity-based personal accountability in Hungary.
Keywords
Legislators; Parliament; Hungary; Accountability; Elections
2
Introduction
Students of legislators’ behaviour might differ regarding the activities they study, the factors
with which they explain the variance in these activities and the methods they apply to uncover
causal relationships. However, the majority of authors seems to agree with Mayhew’s oft-
cited starting point, and consider Members of Parliament (MPs) as ‘single-minded seekers of
re-election’ (Mayhew, 1974). Consequently, most of the things representatives do in the
present are attributed to the MPs’ individual desire for future re-election. At the same time,
Hazan and Rahat point out that under centralised selection rules with a high number of safe
seats, the aim of re-selection is superior to the purpose of being re-elected (Atmor, Hazan, and
Rahat, 2011; Hazan and Rahat, 2010). In the former case, where re-election incentives
dominate, candidates who are able to attract extra votes will be selected, whereas in the latter,
where re-selection motivation prevail, candidate loyalty is considered as priority.
Nevertheless, even in safe districts, to maintain the electoral base, it might appears to be
reasonable to follow strategies that highlight the individual legislator without endangering
party unity (see also Russo, 2011).
Within the premises of legislative studies, less attention has been paid to whether MP
behaviour in parliament and in the constituency indeed affects electoral performance.
Extensive research has been done on the determinants of legislative behaviour, all based on
the presumption that the MPs’ perceptions on the utility of their work is more important than
the actual electoral benefit. Legislators work more and better because they think it will
increase their re-election chances regardless of whether this is indeed the case. While this
argument holds in several cases, it does not bring scholars closer to understanding the
implications of member behaviour and whether it is realistic to assume that such behaviour
yields extra votes or better positions on party lists.
Lessening the gap in the literature, my main question is if there is a connection between
activities carried out by legislators in parliament and their performances at the next elections
in the case of Hungary. I wish to investigate this matter in a mixed-member electoral system
permitting multiple candidacy for several reasons. Firstly, the case of mixed electoral system
is particularly interesting for students of the electoral formula, as it enables to test the effects
of two different set of rules within the same electoral and cultural context. Secondly, being a
candidate on multiple electoral tiers at the same time creates a larger pool of viable strategies
compared to system with one legislative tier on the one hand, and mixed-member system
without multiple candidacy on the other. Thirdly, besides being able to investigate the effects
of electoral activities on candidate votes share, by examining party list positions on closed
lists, we can test party priorities in candidate selection at the same time. The main hypothesis
of the paper is that both, selectors and voters evaluate the ‘goodness’ of the legislators
through their parliamentary activities. Voters seek to elect ‘good’ representatives who are
willing to do hard work in parliament, and they may use prior performance to evaluate future
potential. Additionally, it can be argued that parties will also consider this aspect when
organizing the party lists. Putting hardworking MPs on the top of the lists makes sure that
they have reliable legislators to do the leg-work in parliament.
The paper is structured as follows. First, I will briefly outline the theoretical framework of the
paper, which is followed by a short introduction of the Hungarian case. In the data and
methods section, the dependent and independent variables of the analysis are introduced. In
the analysis section I apply various types of multilevel regression to establish the effect of
3
legislator activities on electoral performance. Finally, I will draw conclusions in the last
section.
Theoretical framework
The missing link in the literature bears theoretical relevance especially for research
establishing the connection between electoral rules and legislators’ personal vote-seeking.
Namely, the linkage between MP behaviour and voter decisions, which authors refer to as the
‘accountability linkage’, is used to describe the mechanism that creates the effect of the
electoral formula on MP activities in the first place.
Figure 1 clarifies this issue by displaying the relationship between the three factors: electoral
rules, MP’s activities and their electoral performance. As to the causal effects, (a) stands for
the effect of electoral formula on member behaviour, while (b) covers the relationship
between behaviour and electoral outcome. Establishing connection (a) in legislative studies
often implies that connection (b) is already manifested.
Figure 1. The relationship between electoral rules, member behaviour and electoral
performance
The underlying argument is that, since one constituency has one single representative in SMD
systems, voters will be able to determine who to reward or punish for the positive or negative
outcomes (Lancaster, 1986; Lancaster and Patterson, 1990; Norris, 2004), thus making direct
sanctioning possible (Mitchell, 2000). In Multi-Member Districts (MMDs) with a
geographical overlap among legislators (Heitshusen, Young, and Wood, 2005) the
accountability link becomes confused, and the incentive to free-ride increases. The reason for
this is that the voters have difficulties identifying the representative responsible for the
benefits, leaving little room for recognition and reward (Cain, Ferejohn, and Fiorina, 1987;
Lancaster, 1986; Scholl, 1986). In MMD-systems, members are more accountable to the party
leadership than to the electorate (Norris, 2004), which makes the contest for re-election a fight
for higher positions on the party list (Curtice and Shively, 2009). Single member district MPs
on the other hand are more dependent on local support, since their electoral fortunes depend
on the votes cast for them, and these votes cannot be enhanced or diminished by the electoral
performance of fellow party members (Curtice and Shively, 2009; Mitchell, 2000). One MP is
responsible for the whole constituency, and cannot delegate problem-solving to other
representatives (Gallagher and Holliday, 2003; Norris, 2004). As voters in SMDs can easily
identify who to approach with their problems (Scholl, 1986), and as members are usually
better known by the electorate (Cooper and Richardson, 2006), single member districts tend to
generate larger demand for constituency service, than MMDs (Scholl, 1986). And since SMD
MPs are more dependent on local support, they are more vulnerable to the pressure from the
electorate as well (Cooper and Richardson, 2006). In short, voters have expectations that are
called forth when casting the vote; and whether they can easily decide whether legislators had
met these expectations or not depends on electoral rules.
4
The first models of representation described it as some kind of agreement between citizens
and the representatives. The main goal of elections was to choose the ‘best individuals to
defend the interests or values of the community or group’ (Colomer, 2011, p. 2). However,
the emergence of political parties shifted this relationship toward an interaction between
citizens and parties instead of citizens and the individual legislators representing their
districts. This was further enhanced by the extensive usage of multi-member Proportional
Representation (PR) electoral systems, where voters were offered to choose between parties
instead of individual candidates. This made party representation more stressful against
personal representation. The shift from single member majority systems toward PR also made
it difficult to apply theories of representation that were based on the logic of one member
representing one constituency, further diminishing the linkage between representatives and
the represented. The main principle of party representation is the representation of policy
preferences: ‘party representation is necessary in order to select the most relevant issues in the
public agenda and to design public policy’ (Colomer, 2011, p. 7). Personal representation on
the other hand aims to ensure the good quality of representation, by appointing individuals
who are reliable and responsive to the voters’ demands. In modern societies, the two aspects
of representation appear in a special mixture in which the composition is heavily influenced
by the given setup of the electoral system. This fits the conclusion of Eulau and Karps (Eulau
and Karps, 1977) as well as Mansbridge (Mansbridge, 2003, 2009) on the presence of the
different types of responsiveness and models within the same system. This indicates that even
in systems, where electoral rules or special circumstances support party representation, some
forms of personal representation should be detectable. This involves that voters will be
inclined to increase the quality of representation by electing representatives of the ‘good’
kind. Practicing accountability on the basis of former promises for a ‘good’ representative,
they might do this by judging incumbent MPs for their actions during the previous terms.
There are several ways in which Members of Parliament can mark out of the crowd of fellow
legislators to advertise their ‘goodness’. They engage in constituency service in the districts:
they hold office hours, carry out ombudsman-like activities and deal with problems arising in
the area as well as respond to individual petitions (Cain et al., 1987; Fenno, 1978; Norris,
1997; Norton and Wood, 1990). However, MPs do not necessarily need to be present in their
constituencies to gain visibility. As they spend most of their time in parliament, they must
find different ways to differentiate themselves from other members. On the one hand, the
contents of parliamentary activities reflect the focus of one’s legislative work. The local focus
of bill initiation (Crisp and Ingall, 2002; Marangoni and Tronconi, 2011), membership in
certain committees (Manow, 2013; Stratmann and Baur, 2002), speeches (Hill and Hurley,
2002), parliamentary questioning (Martin, 2011) and the willingness to desert the party line at
roll-call (Carey, 2007; Tavits, 2009) can reflect general concerns about issues that are
potentially important for citizens of a well-defined geographical location. On the other hand,
the intensity with which MPs engage in these activities is a simple proxy for their efforts to
establish the reputation of a hard-working representative. Voters and parties gain important
information on legislators simply by looking at their track records. Bill sponsorship, (Bowler,
2010; Bräuninger, Brunner, and Däubler, 2012), the frequency of floor speeches (Anderson,
Box-Steffensmeier, and Sinclair-Chapman, 2003) and tabling questions (Lazardeux, 2005;
Rasch, 2009) or simple attendance indicate that they work just as hard as other members
without having to assess the local nature of these activities.
On the basis of the above, the question of whether MP behaviour is relevant in explaining
electoral performance is important to make our assumptions stronger when tying MP
strategies to electoral systems. More importantly, answering this question supplies us with
5
ideas on how well personal accountability works in a given country. A steady relationship
between member behaviour and electoral performance would suggest that a certain type of
legislative accountability mechanism is in place. If MPs are judged individually on the basis
of their performances as legislators, they are indeed encouraged to perform better to gain extra
votes at the next elections. Contrarily, no correlation between MP behaviour and their
electoral fate would indicate that Members of Parliament are not held personally accountable
for their actions while in office. Thus, the question regarding the link between behaviour and
performance might not only justify our basic assumptions in legislative studies, but contribute
to the discussion on the personal accountability of individual MPs and the broader topic of
representation.
The Hungarian case
During the period under investigation (1998-2010), Hungary has a three-tier electoral system,
which is commonly classified as mixed-member majoritarian with partial compensation
(Shugart and Wattenberg, 2001). A total of 386 legislators are elected from 176 single
member districts (SMD tier), 20 regions1 (regional tier) and the national level (national tier).
From the regional tier, a maximum of 152 representatives gain their mandates under the rules
of proportional representation2. A minimum of 58 seats and unallocated mandates from the
regional tier are distributed on the national tier3. Both list tiers apply closed party lists. Parties
may nominate candidates on multiple electoral tiers at the same time. This practice is quite
widespread in Hungary: between 1990 and 2010, almost 40 % of the candidates were
nominated on more than one tier. Furthermore, candidates may be nominated by more than
just one party. Joint candidacy is possible on all electoral tiers, but it is most common in the
case of SMD candidates and is usually restricted to a rather small amount of candidates. There
are some exceptions to this between 1990 and 2010, particularly on the right, namely the
electoral coalitions of Fidesz and MDF in 2002 and Fidesz-KDNP in 2010 which concerned
all candidates on all electoral tiers. Additionally, from 1994 on, legislators are allowed to hold
multiple elected offices such us various positions on the local level.
In the Hungarian parliament, House rules entitle individual legislators to sponsor bills and
submit questions. There are four types of questions in the Országgyűlés: interpellations,
written and oral questions as well as direct inquiries. These types differ in terms of the form
of the required response as well as sanctions in case the questioning MP does not accept the
response to the question. Interpellations, oral and direct questions must be answered at the
plenary session, while written questions require written response. With the exception of direct
questions, all questions have to be submitted in writing prior to the session. Interpellations are
said to be the most powerful among the question types, because if the questioning MP does
not accept the answer of the government, a plenary vote is called to decide on the response.
Hungarian legislators may also make brief speeches on the plenary during debates. However,
PPG leaders and their deputies enjoy a wider range of opportunities to take the floor in the
parliament than backbench MPs. Last but not least, representatives may sit in committees as
permanent members. However, as the partisan setup of each committee is fixed, committee
assignments are decided by the PPG leadership.
Data and variables
1 19 counties and Budapest.
2 Seats on the regional tier are distributed using the Hagenbach-Bischoff formula.
3 Seats on the national tier are distributed using the d’Hondt formula.
6
The analysis builds upon a dataset that collects publicly available electoral4, socio-
demographic5 and parliamentary activity
6 data. Information on the parliamentary activities of
MPs is unavailable for the first two electoral terms (1990-1994, 1994-1998). The raw dataset
is available in wide form7, but for the sake of the analysis it is transformed into long form
8. As
we follow a relatively large number of individuals (large N) throughout a relatively short
period of time (small T), the data can be handled as panel. Since there are also MPs who did
not participate in every single election under investigation, the panel is fairly unbalanced.
Throughout this paper t will denote the year of the election under investigation. MPs are
elected at election t-1, serve between t-1 and t, and evaluated by the voters and parties at t.
Overall, the dataset in long form has 2032 observations. This figure consists of 1130
individual MPs serving between 1990 and 2010. For the above reasons, the analysis is
restricted to the period between 1998 and 2010, which leaves us with 1211 observations for
755 individuals9. 419 MPs only served once during the three electoral terms under
investigation, 216 served twice and 120 three times. Table 1 shows the distribution of
observations across the different values of t.
Table 1. The distribution of MPs across the different electoral terms t-1 t Elected
MPs (t-1)
Candidates
(t)
SMD
candidates
(t)
Regional list
candidates (t)
National list
candidates (t)
1998 2002 402 214 163 188 156
2002 2006 397 260 178 204 143
2006 2010 412 239 158 198 118
Number of
observations in
long form
1211 713 499 590 417
Dependent variables
The analysis section investigates the effect of legislator activities on three types of dependent
variables. First, candidate vote share in the SMDs at election t is explained. In this case, the
selectors have already decided that the given MP will be running as an SMD candidate at the
next election. Thus, the first dependent variable shows how voters react to the legislative
record of the different MPs. In this case MPs who were nominated in SMDs at election t are
taken into account. Nevertheless, legislative activities may not only influence voters in their
electoral decisions, but also parties and selectors at the candidate nomination stage. As being
an SMD MP in Hungary is considered to be a somewhat more prestigious position compared
to holding a list mandate10
, the second DV will differentiate between SMD and list
candidates. Nominating legislators in SMDs may be part of a reward mechanism for
hardworking representatives regardless of which type of mandate they hold between elections.
4 www.valasztas.hu
5 www.parlament.hu, and the dataset of the Centre for Elite Research at the Corvinus University of Budapest.
6 www.parlament.hu
7 Records in the datasets represent individual candidates and MPs. Each candidate appears in the dataset only
once (Weiss, 2006, p. 24). 8 Records in the datasets represent individual candidates and MPs at the given election. Every candidate and MP
has as many records as the number of elections he or she has participated in (Weiss, 2006, p. 24). All descriptive
statistics in this paper are calculated on the dataset in the long form. 9 Note, that MPs elected in 2010 are not part of the analysis, as the election of 2014 is not investigated due to the
changing electoral rules. 10
SMD MPs have more money at their disposal. Additionally, having to demonstrate that they also have a
considerable local support, these representatives often have more leverage within their parties.
7
Thirdly, it can be assumed that it is in the parties’ best interests to select MPs who work hard
in parliament, as long as they are loyal to the party. Also, if they want them to be elected,
parties should put these legislators into positions that results in election with a rather high
probability. In a mixed-member electoral system, especially with a large number of safe seats
and closed party lists, the electoral performance of the candidates heavily depends on which
district the MP was (re-)nominated in, and where she is placed on the party list. In this paper,
I will test the effect of legislator activities on the second set of variables, namely the MPs’
relative11
positions on the regional and national party lists at election t. Figure 2 visualizes the
distribution of the continuous dependent variables. With respect to candidacy in SMDs, 39.8
% of the MPs were nominated in the constituencies at the next election (t).
11
Relative list positions are obtained by dividing absolute list positions with the number of candidates on the list.
0
.00
5.0
1.0
15
.02
.02
5
Den
sity
0 20 40 60 80SMD vote share at t
8
Figure 2. The distribution of candidate vote share, relative list position on the regional and the
national lists
Legislator activities
I use several measures to measure legislator activities in parliament. MPs may engage in a
wide range of activities. They attend plenary sessions, take the floor, sponsor bills, submit and
table various types of questions or take part in the work of different committees. With the
exception of attendance, information on all these activities is available on the official website
of the Hungarian parliament. Table 2 lists variables that will be taken into account in the
analysis as main independent variables. Again, the main question of this paper is if
parliamentary activities affect the share of votes and candidacy in SMDs and list positions on
the regional and national tiers. The majority of the activity variables are heavily skewed to the
right. Therefore, with the exception of committee membership, the log transformed versions
will be used in the analysis (for the distribution of the main independent variables see
Appendix 1). To keep observations with no activity, I added a very small number to zero
(0.000001) before logaritmizing the variables. The bivariate relationships between legislator
activities and the dependent variables are shown in Appendix 2.a-d.
Table 2. The list of legislator activities in parliament Variables Description Transformation
Bills The number of bills sponsored by the MP per electoral terma Natural log
Questions The number of questions submitted by the MP per electoral termb Natural log
Speeches The number of speeches delivered by the MP per electoral term Natural log
Floor time Time spent delivering speeches by the MP per electoral term (in
minutes)
Natural log
Committees The number of committees in which the MP serves as a regular
member per electoral term
None
a Co-sponsored bills are included
b All question types are taken into account (interpellations, oral, written, direct).
01
23
45
Density
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Relative position on the regional list at election t
01
23
45
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Relative position on the national list at election t
9
Results
To test the hypothesis of the paper, namely whether the intensity of parliamentary activities
influences re-selection and re-election chances, I follow a multivariate approach. In all cases,
I use multilevel regression to estimate the effect of the activity variables. However, as
different types of variables are to be explained, three different approaches are implemented.
First, in the case of candidates vote share, a simple multilevel linear model will be built.
Second, SMD candidacy being a binary variable, multilevel binary logit regression is the
proper choice. Third, as the distribution of relative list positions is skewed to the right both in
the cases of regional and national lists, I run gamma multilevel regressions. For this list of
control variable see Appendix 3. Table 3 presents the results of the models.
Table 3. Multilevel models explaining candidate vote share, SMD candidacy, and relative
positions on regional and national lists Variables Model 1
a
DV: Candidate
vote share at t
Model 2b
DV: SMD
candidacy at t
Model 3c
DV: Relative
regional list
position at t
Model 4c
DV: Relative
national list
position
Coefficients (s.e.) Odds ratios
(s.e.)
Coefficient (s.e.) Coefficient (s.e.)
Activity variables
Bills (logged) -.02 (.03) 1.02 (.02) .00 (.00) -.00 (.01)
Questions (logged) -.01 (.04) 1.03 (.02) .00 (.00) .01 (.00)
Speeches (logged) .32 (.09)*** 1.03 (.06) .02 (.02) -.06 (.02)**
Committee -.47 (.31) .98 (.14) .14 (.06)** .09 (.06)
Control variables
Time (t) -.15 (.12) .91 (.03)** .05 (.01)*** .03 (.02)
Party vote share in SMD (t) .88 (.03)***
SMD MP (t) .58 (1.05) 3.29 (1.15)*** -.03 (.14) .25 (.16)
Regional list MP (t) .38 (1.00) .89 (.31) -.05 (.16) .29 (.16)*
SMD candidate (t-1) 4.96 (1.70)***
Tenure (t) .24 (.33) .66 (.09)*** .03 (.06) -.13 (.08)*
Joint candidate (t) .71 (.88)
Dominant party (t) .03 (.85) 1.02 (.33) .00 (.14) .67 (.22)***
Government party (t) -1.31 (.64)** 1.06 (.28) -.26 (.10)** .22 (.16)
District competition (t) -1.09 (.36)***
Multiple candidacies (t) -5.22 (3.04)*
Mayor (t) 1.79 (.78)** 2.05 (.74)** -.25 (.13)* -.07 (.21)
Minister (t) -.82 (.82) 5.30 (3.21)** -.14 (.32) -.36 (.23)
Party leader (t) -.57 (.57) .93 (.23) -.38 (.11)*** -.59 (.15)***
Parliamentary position (t) .44 (.66) 1.49 (.63) -.11 (.24) -.01 (.30)
Committee chair (t) .12 (.45) 1.29 (.33) -.04 (.09) .18 (.13)
Constant 325.98 (243.65) 2.33e+83
1.85e+85***
-108.12 29.64*** -63.68 (44.94)
N 288 521 345 240
id sd(_cons) 2.40 (1.05) 0.00 (.40) .36 (.06) .59 (.17)
sd(Resid) 2.72 (.32)
Log(pseudolikelihood) -771. -271.85 233.76 104.29
Wald χ2 9932.90*** 107.45*** 46.27*** 66.54***
*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1
a: Multilevel linear model (xtmixed)
b: Multilevel binary logistic model (xtmelogit)
c: Multilevel generalized linear model (meglm, family(gamma))
10
Starting with candidate vote share (Model 1), obviously, party vote share explains a huge
proportion of the variance. 1 %points increase in the party’s vote share in the SMD increases
the candidate’s vote share by 0.88 %points. A perfect correspondence between the candidate’s
and the party’ vote share would be indicated by a coefficient around 1. The fact that the
change in the party vote share does not induce the same size of a change in the candidate vote
share, leaves space for other variables to step in. Among the key independent variables only
the number of speeches appears to be significant. Its positive coefficient indicates that the
more frequently an MP has the floor in the parliament, the larger the share of votes she can
expect at the next elections. Besides the insignificant effects of the other activity variables,
they do not point to the expected direction: the number of bills, questions and committee
memberships effect vote share negatively. To disentangle the effect of questioning, I checked
if the frequency with which MPs use the different question types influences their vote share at
the next elections. The results are shown in Table 4. The coefficients of Model 5 suggest that
generally there are no statistically significant differences between the various types of
questions. However, we also find an exception: the number of direct questions slightly
increases vote share.
Table 4. The effect of the different question types on candidate vote share, SMD candidacy,
and relative positions on regional and national lists Variables Model 5
a
DV: Candidate
vote share at t
Model 6b
DV: SMD
candidacy at t
Model 7c
DV: Relative
regional list
position at t
Model 8c
DV: Relative
national list
position
Coefficients (s.e.) Odds ratios
(s.e.)
Coefficient (s.e.) Coefficient (s.e.)
Parliamentary questions
Interpellations (logged) -.02 (.03) 1.03 (.02)* .00 (.01) .00 (.01)
Oral questions (logged) -.03 (.02) 1.02 (.017) .00 (.00) -.01 (.01)
Written questions (logged) .01 (.03) 1.00 (.02) .01 (.01) .01 (.01)
Direct questions (logged) .06 (.03)** 1.00 (.02) -.00 (.00) .00 (.01)
Control variables included
N 288 522 345 241
id sd(_cons) 2.46 (1.11) 0.00 (.40) .36 (.06) .64 (.17)
sd(Resid) 2.69 (.36)
Log(pseudolikelihood) -771.60 -270.30 234.34 105.68
Wald χ2 10802.81*** 110.34*** 49.21*** 59.02***
*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1
a: Multilevel linear model (xtmixed)
b: Multilevel binary logistic model (xtmelogit)
c: Multilevel generalized linear model (meglm, family(gamma))
Apart from party vote share the government/opposition divide, district competition and
mayoral positions affect candidate vote share. As to the government/opposition divide, voters
appear to punish government MPs at the next elections. Karácsony (2006) has shown that
voters evaluate parties retrospectively on the basis of government performance. The reason
for the negative effects is that Hungarian voters have unrealistic expectations of the
governments’ ability to improve the economic environment12
. Therefore, voters may end up
punishing governments that execute successful economic policies. Furthermore, as voters
pursued trial-and-error tactics, a large share of votes was protest in nature, and at the same
time, a proclamation of trust toward the new government (Karácsony, 2006; Rose, 1992). The
12
Duch (2001) argues that in new democracies, voters cannot have established ideas on what to expect from
governments.
11
effect of district competition is straightforward: the larger the number of effective candidates
in the district, the smaller the share of votes a competing candidate may get. And finally,
being a mayor boosts vote share by 1.79 %points, which suggests that voters take local
attachments seriously when casting a personal vote.
Turning to the candidate selection strategies of the parties, the results of Model 2 (Table 3)
indicate that the observed parliamentary activity measures do not influence re-selection
chances on the SMD level. Obviously, selectors prioritize SMD MPs and list MPs with
previous SMD-level electoral experience. Knowing the results of Model 1, it is also not
unexpected that mayors are more likely to be nominated in SMDs than legislators with no
local leadership positions. Ministers are also more likely to be given a shot at the SMD
competition. Last but not least, somewhat surprisingly, tenure has a negative effect on re-
nomination chances. The more experienced the MP is, the lower the probability of being
selected in an SMD. This could indicate that parties constantly seek for amenable and
potentially more successful candidates who are able to increase the district vote share by
obtaining a larger amount of personal vote. These results indicate the parties take certain
activities or skills (or both) into account when selecting candidates. But these activities
(skills) are rather connected to other arenas of a legislator’s work than activities in parliament.
Although SMD candidacies may indicate who party leaders want to be re-elected, a better
measure for these kinds of preferences in a mixed-member system is party list position. Most
prominent partisans are very likely to be placed on the top of the lists either on the regional or
the national level. Models 3 and 4 on Table 3 display results related to relative list positions.
As the smaller the value of the dependent variable (i.e. the smaller the quotient of list position
and the length of the list) the higher the MP is on the list. Therefore, a negative coefficient
represents movement upward on the list. The results regarding parliamentary activities are
rather ambiguous. The number of speeches legislators delivered during the electoral term
seems to matter in the case of the national list composition. More speeches mean better
positions on the national list. With respect to the regional lists, interestingly, the number of
committee memberships has a negative effect on list placement. Paradoxically, the more an
MP works in the committees the more unfavourable her position on the list. Apart from the
activity-related measures, party affiliation and party leadership positions shape the ranking of
the candidates on the lists. First, MPs of the dominant parties (Fidesz and MSZP) are placed
lower on the list on average than the other parties’ candidates. The reason for this lies with the
setup of the parliament during the three electoral terms under investigation. Dominant parties
had substantially more MPs in parliament than any other parties. Therefore, while other
parties could place their legislators on the top of the party lists, Fidesz and MSZP had to place
at least a part of the re-nominated candidate pool down the lists. Thus, the average placement
takes a larger value in their case. Second, party leaders are placed significantly higher on both
the regional and national lists.
The above findings are based on the variables presented by Appendix 1. Here, all MPs were
taken into account, even if there is no registered activity. However, as zero cannot be
logaritmized, zeros were added a very small number (0.000001) to make logaritmization
possible. Due to this transformation, the distributions of these variables are not continuous:
they take a larger negative value in the case of inactive legislators, and are continuously
distributed in the case of others. Thus, one unit change in the independent variable cannot be
translated to every value of the variable. Therefore, to test the hypotheses (and confirm the
above findings), I re-ran the analysis using only data on active members. Results are
displayed in Table 5. The number of speeches is no longer significant (unlike in the cases of
12
Models 1 [candidate vote share] and 4 [relative national list position]), while bill-sponsorship
matters in terms of regional and national list positions. The more bills the MPs submit, the
more advantageous their positions on the lists.
Table 5. Multilevel models explaining candidate vote share, SMD candidacy, and relative
positions on regional and national lists (Active MPs only) Variables Model 9
a
DV: Candidate
vote share at t
Model 10b
DV: SMD
candidacy at t
Model 11c
DV: Relative
regional list
position at t
Model 12c
DV: Relative
national list
position
Coefficients (s.e.) Odds ratios
(s.e.)
Coefficient (s.e.) Coefficient (s.e.)
Activity variables
Bills (logged) .088 (.342) 1.205 (.205) -.177 (.052)*** -.282 (.076)***
Questions (logged) -.205 (.245) .925 (.118) .024 (.039) .076 (.064)
Speeches (logged) .347 (.326) 1.224 (.199) .011 (.061) -.053 (.090)
Committee -.623 (.336)* 1.040 (.212) .147 (.070)** .077 (.079)
Control variables included
N 207 332 244 142
id sd(_cons) 3.01 (1.388) 0.00 (0.00) .335 (.066) 0.00 (0.00)
sd(Resid) 2.330 (.539)
Log(pseudolikelihood) -560.040 -153.749 163.390 69.126
Wald χ2 7418.13*** 72.03*** 43.30*** 98.70***
*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1
a: Multilevel linear model (xtmixed)
b: Multilevel binary logistic model (xtmelogit)
c: Multilevel generalized linear model (meglm, family(gamma))
Last, but not least, floor time was excluded from the models because it’s high correlation with
the number of speeches. Table 5 shows the results of models that include floor time as an
independent variable. The number of minutes for an MP takes the floor is only relevant if
non-active MPs are taken into account. In this case, floor time influences candidate vote share
in the SMD and the relative position on the regional party list. In the former case, the total
length of the speeches affects constituency performance positively, while in the latter, MPs
spending more time with speaking on the floor, get higher on the party list than those with
less floor time.
13
Table 6. Multilevel models explaining candidate vote share, SMD candidacy, and relative positions on the regional and national party lists Variables Model 13
a
DV: Candidate
vote share at t
(all MPs)
Model 14a
DV: Candidate
vote share at t
(active MPs)
Model 15b
DV: SMD
candidacy at t
Model 16b
DV: SMD
candidacy at t
Model 17c
DV: Relative
regional list
position at t
Model 18c
DV: Relative
regional list
position at t
Model 19c
DV: Relative
national list
position
Model 20c
DV: Relative
national list
position
Coefficients
(s.e.)
Coefficients
(s.e.)
Odds ratios
(s.e.)
Odds ratios
(s.e.)
Coefficient
(s.e.)
Coefficient
(s.e.)
Coefficient
(s.e.)
Coefficient
(s.e.)
Activity variables
Bills (logged) -.01 (.03) .11 (.34) 1.02 (.02) 1.17 (.20) .00 (.00) -.16 (.05)*** -.00 (.01) -.27 (.08)***
Questions (logged) -.01 (.04) -.13 (.23) 1.03 (.02) .93 (.11) .00 (.01) .04 (.04) .01 (.01) .07 (.06)
Floor time (logged) .29 (.08)*** .16 (.31) 1.01 (.05) 1.27 (.19) .02 (.02) -.04 (.06) -.06 (.03)** -.06 (.08)
Committee -.47 (.30) -.62 (.34) .98 (.14) 1.03 (.21) .14 (.06) .15 (.07)** .07 (.06) .07 (.08)
Control variables included
N 288 207 522 332 345 244 241 142
id sd(_cons) 2.44 (1.05) 3.13 (1.36) 3.52e-11
(.41)
5.45e-07
(1.34)
.36 (.06) .34 (.06) .62 (.16) 3.16e-33
(9.85e-3)
sd(Resid) 2.71 (.32) 2.29 (.51)
Log(pseudolikelihood) -771.49 -560.42 -271.99 -153.27 233.98 163.60 107.02 69.24
Wald χ2 9878.45*** 7500.22*** 108.14*** 72.94*** 47.06*** 42.22*** 65.75*** 98.74***
*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1
a: Multilevel linear model (xtmixed)
b: Multilevel binary logistic model (xtmelogit)
c: Multilevel generalized linear model (meglm, family(gamma))
14
Conclusions
In this paper I investigated the question if the intensity of legislator activities in parliament
affects electoral performance at the next election. Electoral performance was perceived in two
different ways. First, in the case of SMD candidates, SMD vote share was taken into account.
Second, as in mixed-member systems, there are multiple ways into the parliament, I tested the
effect of parliamentary activities on SMD nomination as well as regional and national list
positions. In the case of SMD candidacy it was assumed that it serves as a reward mechanism
to hard-working MPs. With regards to list positions, as party lists are closed, electoral
performance depends only on two things: (1) the number of seats a party wins with the list,
and (2) the rank of the candidate on that particular list. Thus, parties can decide who gets
elected just by ranking candidates.
The results are mixed at least. The number of speeches was found significant with regards to
candidate vote share and national list positions, and points toward the expected direction.
Furthermore, under certain circumstances, the number of bills also appears to have some
effect on how party leaders construct party lists. Nevertheless, none of these results are
consistent across different model specifications. Therefore, it cannot be confirmed that
legislative activities have a clear impact on the electoral fate of the legislators. This means
that MPs are not held accountable either by the voters or by their parties for how intensively
they work in parliament. With other words, the ‘goodness’ of the legislators are not assessed
based on what they do in parliament, if it is assessed at all. It is not the promise of re-election
that brings MPs to work hard, but something else. To identify these other motivations, more
research is needed, probably qualitative in nature.
Despite the insignificance of the main factors in this paper, certain findings of other nature
may add to our understanding of how voters chose between candidates and along what lines
parties construct party lists. We know now that voters value local attachment at the polling
box. Additionally, the results indicate that parties take certain activities or skills into account
when finalizing the order of candidates on the lists. However, these activities (or skills) are
rather connected to other arenas of a legislator’s work than parliamentary activities. Mayors
and ministers have better chances to being selected to SMD candidacy, while party leaders are
found at better positions on the party lists.
And finally, a few words about the causality in the presented models. Although, it was
assumed that there is a causal relationship between the independent and the dependent
variables, one has to be very careful in interpreting positive effects under such model
specifications. As a certain proportion of the MPs’ work in parliament is controlled
exclusively by the parties, both the number of bills for example and the list positions may be
influenced by a third factor, which makes parties selecting certain MPs to certain tasks. This
third factor is probably the MPs position within the party which cannot be captured either by
party leadership positions or any other political position that can objectively be measured.
Nevertheless, negative results still suggest that there is no connection between legislative
activities and electoral performance.
With regards to future research, to disentangle the case of individual accountability, whether it
exists and through what mechanism, one has to take other, non-parliamentary activities into
account as well. As to activities in parliament, one should look behind the intensity and look
at the content of those activities. Policy aspects as well as local orientation could be two
15
directions in which we could investigate further to see if voters and parties react to the context
behind sheer numbers.
16
Appendix
Appendix 1. The distributions of the main independent variables
Appendix 2.a. The bivariate relationships between candidate vote share at election t and the
main independent variables
0.1
.2.3
De
nsity
-15 -10 -5 0 5Number of sponsored bills (logged)
0
.05
.1.1
5.2
-15 -10 -5 0 5Number of questions (logged)
0.1
.2.3
.4
-15 -10 -5 0 5Number of speeches (logged)
0.1
.2.3
De
nsity
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10Floor time (logged)
0.5
11
.52
0 1 2 3 4 5Number of committees
020
40
60
80
0 1 2 3 4Number of sponsored bills (logged)
020
40
60
80
0 2 4 6 8Number of questions (logged)
020
40
60
80
0 2 4 6 8Number of speeches (logged)
020
40
60
80
0 2 4 6 8Floor time (logged)
020
40
60
80
0 1 2 3 4 5Number of committees
Ca
nd
idate
vote
sha
re a
t ele
ctio
n t
17
Appendix 2.b. The bivariate relationships between SMD candidacy at election t and the main
independent variables
Appendix 2.c. The bivariate relationships between relative regional list positions at election t
and the main independent variables
01
23
4
Nu
mb
er
of
sp
on
sore
d b
ills (
log
ged
)
No Yes
02
46
8
Nu
mb
er
of
que
stion
s (
logg
ed
)
No Yes
02
46
8
Nu
mb
er
of
sp
ee
che
s (
logg
ed
)No Yes
02
46
8
Flo
or
tim
e (
log
ge
d)
No Yes
01
23
45
Nu
mb
er
of
co
mm
itte
es
No Yes
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 1 2 3 4Number of sponsored bills (logged)
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 2 4 6 8Number of questions (logged)
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 2 4 6 8Number of speeches (logged)
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 2 4 6 8Floor time (logged)
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 1 2 3 4 5Number of committees
Re
lative r
eg
iona
l lis
t positio
n a
t ele
ctio
n t
18
Appendix 2.d. The bivariate relationships between relative national list positions at election t
and the main independent variables
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 1 2 3 4Number of sponsored bills (logged)
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 2 4 6 8Number of questions (logged)
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 2 4 6 8Number of speeches (logged)
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 2 4 6 8Floor time (logged)
0.2
.4.6
.81
0 1 2 3 4 5Number of committees
Re
lative n
ation
al lis
t po
sitio
n a
t e
lection
t
19
Appendix 3. The list of control variables
Variable Description
Time (t) Election (2002, 2006, 2010)
Party vote share in
SMD (t)
The vote share of the MPs party in the respective SMD at election t.
SMD MP (t) The MP was holding an SMD mandate at the time of election t
Regional list MP (t) The MP was holding a regional list mandate at the time of election t
SMD candidates (t-
1)
The MP was an SMD candidate at the previous election (t-1)
Tenure (t) The number of terms served as an MP at the time of election t
Joint candidate (t) The MP was nominated by multiple parties jointly in the SMD at
election t
Dominant party (t) MP of Fidesz or MSZP
Government party
(t)
MP of a government party at the time of election t
District
competition (t)
The number of effective candidates in the SMD at election t;
2
1
ipN ,where pi is the vote share of each candidate competing in
the respective SMD
Multiple
candidacies (t)
The MP was nominated on multiple tiers of the electoral system at
election t
Mayor (t) The MP is a mayor at the time of election t
Minister (t) The MP is a minister at the time of election t
Party leader (t) The MP is a party leader at the time of election t
Parliamentary
positions (t)
The MP holds office in parliament as a PPG-leader, speaker, vice
president or clerk) at the time of election t
Committee chair (t) The MP serves as a committee chair at the time of election t
20
References
Anderson, W. D., Box-Steffensmeier, J. M. and Sinclair-Chapman, V. (2003) ‘The Keys to
Legislative Success in the U.S. House of Representatives’, Legislative Studies
Quarterly, 28(3), 357–86.
Atmor, N., Hazan, R. Y. and Rahat, G. (2011) ‘Candidate selection’, in J. M. Colomer (ed.),
Personal representation. The neglected dimension of electoral systems. Colchester:
ECPR Press, p. 21–36.
Bowler, S. (2010) ‘Private Members Bills in the UK Parliament: Is There an “Electoral
Connection”?’, The Journal of Legislative Studies, 16(4), 476–94.
Bräuninger, T., Brunner, M. and Däubler, T. (2012) ‘Personal vote-seeking in flexible list
systems: How electoral incentives shape Belgian MPs’ bill initiation behaviour’,
European Journal of Political Research, 51(5), 607–45.
Cain, B., Ferejohn, J. and Fiorina, M. P. (1987) The personal vote: constituency service and
electoral independence. Harvard University Press.
Carey, J. M. (2007) ‘Competing Principals, Political Institutions, and Party Unity in
Legislative Voting’, American Journal of Political Science, 51(1), 92–107.
Colomer, J. M. (2011) ‘Introduction: personal and party representation’, Josep M. Colomer
(ed.) Personal representation. The neglected dimension of electoral systems.
Colchester: ECPR Press, p. 1–20.
Cooper, C. A. and Richardson, L. E. (2006) ‘Institutions and Representational Roles in
American State Legislatures’, State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 6(2), 174–94.
Crisp, B. and Ingall, R. E. (2002) ‘Institutional Engineering and the Nature of Representation:
Mapping the Effects of Electoral Reform in Colombia’, American Journal of Political
Science, 46(4), 733–48.
Curtice, J. and Shively, P. (2009) ‘Who represents us best? One member or many?’, Hans-
Dieter Klingemann (ed.) The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. Oxford: Oxford
University Press.
Eulau, H. and Karps, P. D. (1977) ‘The Puzzle of Representation: Specifying Components of
Responsiveness’, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 2(3), 233–54.
Fenno, R. F. (1978) Home Style: House Members in Their Districts. Glenview, IL: Longman.
Gallagher, M. and Holliday, I. (2003) ‘Electoral Systems, Representational Roles and
Legislator Behaviour: Evidence from Hong Kong’, New Zealand Journal of Asian
Studies, 5(1), 107–20.
Hazan, R. Y. and Rahat, G. (2010) Democracy within Parties: Candidate Selection Methods
and their Political Consequences. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Heitshusen, V., Young, G. and Wood, D. M. (2005) ‘Electoral Context and MP Constituency
Focus in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom’,
American Journal of Political Science, 49(1), 32–45.
Hill, K. Q. and Hurley, P. A. (2002) ‘Symbolic Speeches in the U.S. Senate and Their
Representational Implications’, The Journal of Politics, 64(1), 219–31.
Lancaster, T. D. (1986) ‘Electoral Structures and Pork Barrel Politics’, International Political
Science Review, 7(1), 67–81.
Lancaster, T. D. and Patterson, W. D. (1990) ‘Comparative Pork Barrel Politics’,
Comparative Political Studies, 22(4), 458–77.
Lazardeux, S. (2005) ‘“Une Question Ecrite, Pour Quoi Faire?” The Causes of the Production
of Written Questions in the French Assemblée Nationale’, French Politics, 3(3), 258–
81.
Manow, P. (2013) ‘Mixed Rules, Different Roles? An Analysis of the Typical Pathways into
the Bundestag and of MPs’ Parliamentary Behaviour’, The Journal of Legislative
Studies, 19(3), 287–308.
21
Mansbridge, J. (2003) ‘Rethinking Representation’, American Political Science Review,
97(4), 515–28.
Mansbridge, J. (2009) ‘A “Selection Model” of Political Representation’, Journal of Political
Philosophy, 17(4), 369–398.
Marangoni, F. and Tronconi, F. (2011) ‘When Territory Matters: Parliamentary Profiles and
Legislative Behaviour in Italy (1987–2008)’, The Journal of Legislative Studies, 17(4),
415–34.
Martin, S. (2011) ‘Parliamentary Questions, the Behaviour of Legislators, and the Function of
Legislatures: An Introduction’, The Journal of Legislative Studies, 17(3), 259–70.
Mayhew, D. R. (1974) Congress: The Electoral Connection, Second Edition. Yale University
Press.
Mitchell, P. (2000) ‘Voters and their representatives: Electoral institutions and delegation in
parliamentary democracies’, European Journal of Political Research, 37(3), 335–51.
Norris, P. (1997) ‘The puzzle of constituency service’, The Journal of Legislative Studies,
3(2), 29–49.
Norris, P. (2004) Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behavior. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
Norton, P. and Wood, D. (1990) ‘Constituency Service by Members of Parliament: Does It
Contribute to a Personal Vote?’, Parliamentary Affairs, 43(2), 196–208.
Rasch, B. E. (2009) ‘Opposition Parties, Electoral Incentives and the Control of Government
Ministers: Parliamentary Questioning in Norway’, in S. Ganghof, C. Hönnige and C.
Stecker (eds.), Parlamente, Agendasetzung und Vetospieler. VS Verlag für
Sozialwissenschaften, pp. 199–214.
Russo, F. (2011) ‘The Constituency as a Focus of Representation: Studying the Italian Case
through the Analysis of Parliamentary Questions’, The Journal of Legislative Studies,
17(3), 290–301.
Scholl, E. L. (1986) ‘The Electoral System and Constituency-Oriented Activity in the
European Parliament’, International Studies Quarterly, 30(3), 315–32.
Shugart, M. S. and Wattenberg, M. P. (2001) ‘Introduction: The Electoral Reform of the
Twenty-First Century?’, in M. S. Shugart and M. P. Wattenberg (eds.), Mixed-Member
Electoral Systems. The Best of Both Worlds?. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Stratmann, T. and Baur, M. (2002) ‘Plurality Rule, Proportional Representation, and the
German Bundestag: How Incentives to Pork-Barrel Differ across Electoral Systems’,
American Journal of Political Science, 46(3), 506–14.
Tavits, M. (2009) ‘The Making of Mavericks Local Loyalties and Party Defection’,
Comparative Political Studies, 42(6), 793–815.
Weiss, R. E. (2006) Modeling Longitudinal Data. New York: Springer Science & Business
Media.