Keynote for the 6th Amadeus Executive Round Table“Fresh Start of the International Mobility & Travel Industry”.
Manuel Wehner, online, 28 October 2020
Leisure Travel Behavior in Times of the Corona Pandemic -Trend Survey Results “2020 Fall Edition”
Institute for Aviation and Tourism (IAT) of Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences (Frankfurt UAS) in cooperation with Amadeus Germany GmbH
Page 1 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
Fachbereich 3 Wirtschaft und Recht
Introduction
Manuel Wehner, M.Sc. (TUM)
Head of the IAT Founding Project & Lecturer, Frankfurt UAS
2018 – 2020: Master’s in Management & Technology, Technical Univ. of Munich (TUM)
2015 – 2017: Project Manager Innovation, Fraport AG
2011 – 2015: Dual Bachelor‘s in Aviation Management, Fraport AG and Frankfurt UAS
[email protected]; www.fra-uas.de/iat
Institute for Aviation and Tourism (IAT) of Frankfurt UAS
Practice-oriented research institute incl. a specialized student consultancy
Current focus: Strategic realignment of the aviation and tourism industries
Pilot projects e.g. with Amadeus Germany
Page 2 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
Speaker
Institute
Agenda
Objective, method and demography
Results of the survey
Leisure travel behavior
Corona testing
Digitalization
Travelling after the pandemic
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Back-up detail evaluation – correlations between factors
Page 3 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
After a period of recovery and hope in summer, the second wave of Covid-19 is hitting Europe – what does this mean for the perception of travelling?
14-day COVID-19 case notification rate during fall and summer survey
Summer survey: weeks 29 & 30 Fall survey: weeks 41 & 42(29 Jul 2020) (15 Oct 2020)
Page 4 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
In the context of the dramatically different situation this fall compared to July, two key questions need to be answered:
1. Have the outlook and reasons not to travel changed in fall, compared to the summer survey?
2. How important are new developments like expanded test opportunities and contactless travel?
Imag
es t
aken
fro
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uro
pea
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en
tre
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r D
isea
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reve
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on
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ol
(202
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, https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
10%
22%
35%
30%
2% 1%
Age groups
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 50 51 - 64 65 - 70 > 70
n=500*
After the insightful summer survey, the developments in travel behaviour in the Corona pandemic are followed up by another survey in fall
Overview on survey and participants:
• The IAT has conducted a second survey on private travel behavior with 41 questions in cooperation with Amadeus Germany GmbH
• German and English questionnaires; 750 respondents, period: 30.09.2020 until 14.10.2020(first survey: 305 responses)
• Participants mainly share an academic or touristic background, are primarily located in Germany, and are from all age groups
• Results of the first survey [German only]: https://amadeus.com/de/insights/blog/trendumfrage-juli-2020
Page 5 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
85%
15%Place of residence
DACH Rest of Europe Other America
Arabian Peninsula Asia Oceania
n=500*
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
Agenda
Objective, method and demography
Results of the survey
Leisure travel behavior
Corona testing
Digitalization
Travelling after the pandemic
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Back-up detail evaluation – correlations between factors
Page 6 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
The outlook became more pessimistic: Most people do not believe that normal travelling will be possible before 2022
Summer survey (July 2020):
• The lockdown had ended & the recovery period led to optimism
• The majority estimated that travelling as before would be possible in 2021
Fall survey (October 2020):
• The second wave was on the horizon & forecasts became more negative
• The majority now does not expect to return to normal before 2022
Page 7 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
End of 2020 2021 2022 After 2022 No estimation
When will traveling like before be possible again?
Summer survey Fall survey
n=557*
Entry requirements and concerns about quarantine are the main factors that keep people from travelling
Page 8 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
**Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
0%
20%
40%
60%
Entryrequirements in
country ofdestination
Concern aboutquarantine on
return
Concern aboutquarantine in
country ofdestination
Fear of infectingothers (new)
Risk of owninfection
(new)
Generaluncertainty
Concern aboutnon-refundable
cancellations
Avoidingcrossing borders
(new)
Other * Changed income Reasons fortravel have
changed
* e.g. Cancellation by airline / travel agent, currently no flight connections, work-related restrictions / consequences, cancelled events (EM 2020), annoyed by wearing masks
Reasons for changed travel behavior in 2020
Summer survey Fall survey
n=668**
Entry requirements like travel bans and border closures affect travel decisions the most. Further important reasons are concerns about quarantine and infecting family members and colleagues.
Agenda
Objective, method and demography
Results of the survey
Leisure travel behavior
Corona testing
Digitalization
Travelling after the pandemic
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Back-up detail evaluation – correlations between factors
Page 9 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
40% are positively affected by test opportunities along their travel route; short waiting times are of utmost importance
Page 10 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
34% are not or even negatively affected by test opportunities.
14%
26%
26%
18%
2%
14%
Effect of test opportunities on the travel decision
Strongly positive Positive Barely positive
None Negative Not travelling
n=484*
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Timebetweentest and
result
Testingtime
Price Testlocation
Test type Languagepersonnel
Other
Key aspects when taking a travel-related Corona test n=471*
Key aspects are the time between the test and the result and the time needed to take the test itself.
More than half of the travelers, who travelled less than last year, are willing to pay more for guaranteed Corona-safe travelling
Page 11 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
People, who do/did not travel during the pandemic, are the least interested to pay extra.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
I don't travel. I travel way less. I travel less. I travel at least as much asbefore.
Willigness to pay for Corona-safe travelling in comparison to the reduction of trips in 2020
Very low
Low
No estimation
High
Very high
n=492*p=0,034 significantChi-Sq-Test
Agenda
Objective, method and demography
Results of the survey
Leisure travel behavior
Corona testing
Digitalization
Travelling after the pandemic
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Back-up detail evaluation – correlations between factors
Page 12 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
More than 50% of travelers value the option of contactless travel positively; DACH participants are less willing to share personal data compared to others
Page 13 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
For more than half of the participants the option of a contactless trip impacts their travel decision positively.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Stronglypositive
Positive None Negative Noestimation
Effect of contactless travel options on the travel decision n=490*
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DACH countries All other countries
Willingness to upload biometric data into an app
No estimation
No willigness
Low
High
Very high
Already using
n=500*
Two thirds are willing to upload biometric data into an app. The willingness in DACH countries is lower than in other countries.
Except name, address and phone number, the willingness to share more data than absolutely necessary is very low
Page 14 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
More than half of the participants are willing to share their name, addressand phone number.
Beyond this, there is significantly less willingness to share other types of data, e.g. relevant health information or biometric data.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Name &address
Phone number Relevanthealth
information
Biometric data Personalbehavior and
acitvities
Social mediaprofiles
Willingness to share particular data with tripmakersabove what is absolutely necessary
No estimation
Very low
Low
High
Very high
n=379*
Agenda
Objective, method and demography
Results of the survey
Leisure travel behavior
Corona testing
Digitalization
Travelling after the pandemic
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Back-up detail evaluation – correlations between factors
Page 15 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
After the crisis, participants value sustainability the highest tourism trends; except entry requirements, other reasons for not travelling are barely impacted by age
Page 16 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Sustainability Conceptsbeyond mass
tourism
Economicand social
factors
Climateprotection
No change intravel
behavior
Questioningown travelbehavior
Digitalservices
Other
Importance of trends after the crisis n=739*
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 50 50+
Reasons for Changed Travel Behavior Per Age Group
Entry requirements in the country of destinationAvoiding crossing bordersFear of potentially infecting othersFear of corona infectionConcern about non-refundable cancellations
n=449*
The most important topics for travelers are sustainability and new tourism concepts.
Entry requirements have highest impact on travel behavior for all age groups, but more so for the younger. Infection-related factors are roughly equal across all age groups.
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
Seite 17 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
Thank you very much for your attention!
Agenda
Objective, method and demography
Results of the survey
Leisure travel behavior
Corona testing
Digitalization
Travelling after the pandemic
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Back-up detail evaluation – correlations between factors
Page 18 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
A significant decrease of infections is the most important condition to convincetravelers to travel as before the crisis
Page 19 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
Infections need to decrease in order to convince travelers to travel as before the pandemic.
Regular updates of changes and the speed of receiving test results are more important than hygiene concepts for contact avoidance.0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Significantdecrease ofinfections
Regular updatesabout current,
relevant changes
Rapid test results Contact Avoidance Contactless travelcan be guaranteed
No estimation
Importance of conditions to be fulfilled to travel as before n=556*
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
Sanitary and political factors are more important when planning a trip than factors that are in the control of the tourism industry
Page 20 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
The most volatile factors of each category – such as current infections and local Corona measures – impact the planning of a trip abroad the most. Regular updates of changes and the speed of receiving test results are more important than hygiene concepts for contact avoidance.
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Activeinfections
Local healthsystem
Local Covid-19 deaths
Local anti-corona
measures
Local politicalsituation
Diplomaticrelations to
homecountry
Distance tohome country
Test offers
Sanitary factors Political factors Somewhat steerable factors(for the tourism industry)
Impact level of various factors in the country of destination when planning a trip abroad
No estimation
No impact
Slight impact
Impact
Strong impact
n=542*
Willingness to pay more for a Corona-safe travel correlates highly significantly with the effect of Corona test offers and contactless traveling on the travel decision
Page 21 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
It appears that there is a group that is willing to travel as normal again. Subsequently, it views all trends contributing to this goal positively. This group is also more willing to share data above what is absolutely necessary for travelling.
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Negative / no effect Slightly positive effect Positive effect Strong positive effect
Willingness to pay extra for a guaranteed Corona-safe travel experience in correlation with the effect of Corona test offers
on the travel decisionVery high willigness High willigness No estimation Almost no willingness No willingness
n=480*, p=0,00 highly significant Kendall-Tau-test
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Negative / no effect Slightly positive effect Positive effect
Willingness to pay extra for a Corona-safe travel experience in correlation with the effect of
contactless travel on the travel decisionVery high willigness High willigness No estimation
n=485*, p=0,00 highly significant Kendall-Tau-test
The effect of contactless travel on travel decisions is the most positive with younger age groups
Page 22 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
Travel decisions of younger travelers are more affected by a contactless travel options than those of older travelers.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 50 >51
Effect of contactless travel on travel decision per age group
No estimation
Negative effect
No effect
Positive effect
Strong positiveeffect
n=490*p=0,00 highly significantKendall-Tau-test
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
While younger travelers are more willing to upload biometric data, the actual adoption rate of the technology is roughly the same throughout all age groups
Page 23 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
Biometric data is a fundamental requirement for contactless travelling, e.g. the boarding process at the airport or the check-in process at the hotel. Across all age groups, mosttravelers are willing to upload biometric data for this reason.
Younger travelers are more pronethan older. However, the actual adoption rate is equal throughout all age groups (ca. 7%).
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 50 >51
Willingness to upload biometric data into an app per age group
No estimation
No willingness
Low
High
Very high
Already using
n=500*,p=0,0065 highly significant Kendall-Tau-test
Business travelers are considerably more likely to pay more for a guaranteed Corona-safe travel experience than leisure travelers
Page 24 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
Business travelers have a higher willingness to pay more than private travelers. In both groups, more than half of the travelers are willing to pay extra for a Corona-safe trip.
“Private traveler” includes travel purpose “Leisure only” and “Mainly leisure”“Business traveler” includes travel purpose “Business only” and “Mainly business”
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Private traveler Business traveler
Willingness to pay extra for a guaranteed Corona-safe travel experience per type of traveler
Very low
Low
No estimation
High
Very high
n=395*p=0,00 highly significantKendall-Tau-test
The assessment of airline flexibility correlates highly significantly with when people expect to travel as before – but why?
Page 25 Survey Results Fall Edition 2020 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 28.10.2020
Correlation is no causality. This correlation can be interpreted in a plethora of ways:• Does airline flexibility directly
impact traveling optimism?• If so, can higher flexibility lure in
travelers? How could this flexibility look like?
• Or: Is optimism negatively effected by negative experiences with airlines, such as late refund or cancellation?
• Or: Are pessimistic people just more negative in general?
*Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Normal traveling asfrom end of 2020
Normal traveling in2021
Normal traveling in2022
Normal traveling after2022
Correlation "How much flexibility do airlines offer you?" and "When do you think you will be able to travel as you
did before the pandemic?"
High flexibility Some flexibility Little flexibility No flexibility at all
n=244*
Food for thought