Lesson 2

The International Situation

Lesson Objectives

• Gain an introduction to the current situation outside the USA for food security

• Learn about the causes of food insecurity• Understand the historical context that has led

to the current situation• Explore contemporary thinking on future

directions

Main Point• Since 1945 amazing progress has been made to feed a

rapidly growing world population. Currently there is growing recognition that the very poor have been left behind and that future progress requires a more sustainable approach.

• We see an amazing capacity for creativity in men and women. But it needs to be tempered with a greater sense of social justice and deeper understanding of nature. Transcendental meditation will assist in this process by developing intelligence, creativity, broader awareness and greater moral reasoning.

Definition of food security

• Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

• Food sovereignty is defined as the right of peoples and sovereign states to democratically determine their own agricultural and food policies.

World Hunger

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

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7000

Food insecurityWorld population

1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

1000

2000

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4000

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7000

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Food insecurity / popu-lation %World population

Where?Recent decades • Big progress East Asia,

Latin America, middle East North Africa

• Deterioration in South Asia and Sub- Saharan Africa

Re-enforcing Feedback

Hunger

PovertyHalf the world’s hungry are small , rural farmers

Food insecurity factors

• Lack of income• Lack of human capital• Lack of resources eg land, livestock• Political disadvantage• Food distribution in household• Undernourishment of children very important with

regard to proper growth (about 150 m)• Micronutrients – iodine, Vitiman A, iron (2000 about

50% women and children in LDC’s had anemia)

More food insecurity factors

• Poverty + rapid population growth– UN mid range projection 2050 – 9.2 billion– All growth from now in LDC’s– 50% of future growth in 6 countries: China, India,

Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia• Disabling disease eg AIDS, Malaria– 70% of world cases in Sub Saharan Africa

Typical Factors Causing Famines, Usually Occurring in Combination

• War eg Nigerian civil war and Biafra Famine 1967-70 claimed over I million lives

• Poor governance eg Mao’s Great Leap Forward,’ mostly the cause of Great Chinese Famine 1958-1961, claiming up to 45 million lives

• Crop failure eg Soviet Union drought of 1946/7, claiming 1 million + lives.

• Nevertheless, famine has been a relatively small part of food insecurity

WFP and the Emergency Prevention of Famine

• Food stock management• Effective market intelligence– Early warning– Monitoring

• Distribution systems

WFP Executive Director Josette Sheeran holds the young son of a Palestinian woman who receives food assistance thanks to new 'e-vouchers'.

Focus 1945 to 1990

• Focus on food production with green revolution– huge increase in yields– external input fertilizers, pesticides– new hybrids– cheap oil– external costs ignored

Green Revolution Success

1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Food insecurity / population %World population

Green Revolution Downsides

• Green Revolution techno approach actually increased inequality especially for poorest countries *– Bypassed women who had less access to credit

and extension services– Bypassed farmers on marginal lands– Created unsustainable debt– Developed unsustainable dependence on external

inputs (often imported)*Over 30 years ,80% of studies on Green Revolution came to this conclusion

Green Revolution Downsides contd.

• Created rural depopulation due to less labor intensive methods

• Neglect of food access issues• Neglected external environmental impacts• Failure of genetic engineering to deliver

Other Factors Preventing Better Results

• Western political intervention

• Western post-colonial economic imperialism• Supermarkets

• President Mobutu 1971 – 1997

• Corrupt billionnaire• Violater of rights• ‘Friend’ of the USA

Structural Adjustment Programs (SAP’s)

• Supposed to be based on theory of comparative advantage

• International Monetary Fund, World Bank and World Trade Organization

• LDC’s often overpowered in negotiation with USA, Canada and European Union maintaining its tariff walls.

SAP’s misplacedpriorities

Advanced Country (AC)

Wildly optimistic economic projections justifying huge loans for infrastructure

‘Developing’ Country (DC)

Bribes for ruling elite

Accepts plans

Takes on huge loans

World Bank, IMF, Banks

AC corporations get contracts

$$$

Refuses plan and loans

AC sponsors

coup

Coup succeeds

Coup fails

Invasion

Limited benefit to DCDC

mired in debt and growing poverty

Wealth flows

to AC

Wealth flows

to AC

AC dictates terms

Grabs assets

Foists trade deals

etc

DC unable

to afford

social programs

Trade Tariffs• Huge developed world (US, Canada, EU) market distortions

– Tariffs 40 to 50% on food imports– Internal subsidies eg US Farm Bill 2002 internationally

condemned• Contrasts with manufactured goods tariffs of 4-5%• 1945 – 2000 trade in manufactures grew 17 times; food 6

times: big potential locked up:– For price stabilization– For cheaper food through

comparative advantage (eg Caribbean sugar and the US)

Food Aid Dumping

• When developed countries have (subsidized) agricultural surpluses they give it as food aid causing price collapse

• This leads to LDC’s relevant commodity market to collapse causing economic challenge

• ‘Food is a weapon.'

Institutional Challenges

• LDC’s lack of capacity to – Define national objectives– Advocate generally– Handle trade negotiations

• Food security has global dimension so LDC’s have to engage on global stage

Psychology of food

• Deep psychology in most cultures to be self-reliant in food– Known as ‘assurance problem’– National strategic security– Hoarding– Protectionism– Preference for traditional

landscapes

Stalemate

• GATT seven rounds since WW2• Doha Round under new WTO

2001 to present no agreement– US and EU will not lower

subsidies and import tariffs especially on agricultural products

– LDC’s deep mistrust of West

Into The Future

A Fragile System

• Future 2 billion population growth in will almost all be in LDC’s

• Lack of international and national investment in agriculture in very poor LDC’s.

• The current worldwide economic crisis• Price spikes in global food markets eg 2009• Climate change threats of less rain and more CO2

• Expanding deserts eg Sahara into Sahel

More concerns

• Land use for agriculture projected to grow 18% 2000 to 2050

• But competition with cities for land and water– Reduction in developed nations– More than 18% in LDC’s– Risk of using marginal lands

• Loss of natural ecosystems especially tropical forests

…And More Concerns

• Movement up the food chain. LDC’s consumed over double in 1997 compared with 1967

• Less people fed per acre

• Environmental degradation due to nutrient run off

And more…

• Cereal yield growth projected to fall from 1.6% pa 1982-97, to 0.9% ‘97 to 2025

• Water tables falling – (remember Plan B?)• Irrigation Water Supply Reliability (IWSR) Index

projected to fall in LDC’s about 10% 2000 – 2025• LDC’s will have to import much more grain from US

and EU in next 20 years• Not enough money spent on R & D especially in critical

LDC’s.

And still more

• Continued high tariff barriers of developed nations for LDC agricultural produce

• Continued high subsidies in US and EU for agricultural produce creates unfair advantage in trade market

• Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as the most fragile situation

And Finally

• How much does the well-fed world actually care?

Economic Growth

• Anti globalization more to do with relative poverty – poorest not being helped by growth.

• Lowest growth area through 2025: Sub-Saharan Africa

• Food security future very sensitive to level of growth

More on Economic Growth

• The world’s trajectory of economic growth suggests and much better future is achievable

• UN projections anticipate LDC’s will become 9.5 times more wealthy in this century N Lawson, an Appeal to

reason

• In 1900, USA life expectancy was 47 years – lower than LDC’s today.

• Economic growth related to nutrition and health – a ‘virtuous circle.’

Definition of Sustainability

“Sustainability is humanity conducting life in accord with the managing intelligence of nature to create a happy, abundant life in harmony with the ecosphere, bringing mutual enrichment and evolution to all in this generation and all future generations.”

John Collins, 2011

Definition of Food Security

• “ Food security exists when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life.”

• The World Food Summit of 1996

Food Security in Wealthier Nations

• Health problems related to dietary excess• Malnutrition from unbalanced diet• Foodborne illness• Growing income inequality

Salmonella bacteria

Reframing the Discussion

• 1987 Bruntland Report• 1996 World Food Summit promoted ‘The human

right to adequate food.’• 2004 onwards addition of the right to National

Food Security and National Food Sovereignty.• Accountability measured not in terms of

production and yields, but in terms of food security.

• Emphasis on those most at risk of hunger.

Three Spheres of Operations

Local Self-Reliance

Private Sector

Governments, international agencies and globalization

Traditional knowledge, Sustainable systems

Wealth to invest, efficiency and power

Coordination, science, wealth,

The Three Pillars of Food Security• Food availability: sufficient quantities of

food produced on a consistent basis.• Food access: having sufficient resources

to obtain appropriate foods for a nutritious diet.– Own production– Exchange– Public entitlements

• Food use: appropriate use based on knowledge of basic nutrition and care, as well as adequate water and sanitation.

Alternative Three Pillars of Food Security

• No war• Containing the power of

capitalism– Neo colonial economic

aggression (SAP’s, Tariffs)– Supermarkets

• Development of LDC’s agro-ecology for resilience.

Changing Received Wisdom

• 2009 International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development (IAASTD) Report, a joint project of the U.N. and the World Bank, and other agencies.

• Groundbreaking study, 400 experts, 4.5 years

• To identify the most efficient, productive, and sustainable strategy for feeding the world.”

Agro-ecology

• Low use of external inputs• Often labor intensive with farmer close to land• Supportive state policies eg.– Extension services– Defensive import tariffs– State procurement portfolio standards– Tax external costs of agribusiness

Regenerative capacity of the Earth’s biosphere

1961 1999

% of capacity used 70% 120%

• But almost all increase related to carbon emissions• Not much burden from increased crop

production (Wackernagel 2000)

Some of the Bigger Players

• Players in food policy developing world – FAO, WFP, IFPRI, IAASTD, USAID, OXFAM, World Bank and IMF, Agribusiness and Biotech interests,

Lesson Objectives

• Gain an introduction to the current situation outside the USA for food security

• Learn about the causes of food insecurity• Understand the historical context that has led

to the current situation• Explore contemporary thinking on future

directions

Main Point

• Since 1945 amazing progress has been made to feed a rapidly growing world population. Currently there is growing recognition that the very poor have been left behind and that future progress requires a more sustainable approach. We see an amazing capacity for creativity in man. Experiences of transcending are highly correlated with growth in creativity.