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Page 1 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
What 10 years of Challenge Bibendum have taught the
private and public sectors about sustainable road transport and
reducing GHG
2008 TRB Meeting
Page 2 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Rallying together towards sustainable road mobility
Since 1998, Challenge Bibendum has been telling us
where industry and governments would like to go
Page 3 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Last edition of Challenge Bibendum : Shanghai, November 14 – 17, 2007
2500 participants, 600 journalists, 150 vehicles, 200 major companies or
institutions represented
Page 4 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Tomorrow's road mobility must adapt to growing urbanization as well as address societal challenges in terms of far greater energy efficiency and diversified energies. It will have to be cleaner, safer and more fluid…
…or it will come up against formidable opposition, with major predictable consequences on employment and social & economic development!...
The stakes
Page 5 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Let’s be clear about it: Road mobility as we know it is NOT
sustainable and the solutions contemplated so far are not commensurate
with the criticality of what is at stake.5 issues need to be addressed
simultaneously:
Insecurity
Urban pollution
GHG emissions
Congestion
Oil dependency
Page 6 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
New mobilitypatterns
Reduction of transport related
CO2 emissionsUrban way of life
(congestion, pollution,noise, pedestrian security)
New predictablebusiness practices
Resource relatedconflicts
Page 7 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
• 50 million vehicles• 2.5 billion inhabitants • 28% of populations
town dwellers
• <10% of CO2 emissions and 20% of oil use were transport-related
19501950
Page 8 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
• >>1,500 million vehicles?
• 9 billion inhabitants?• 70% of populations
town dwellers?
• >30% of CO2 emissions and 75% of oil uses are transport-related?
20502050
Page 9 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Transportation: a critical role in world political issues
9,80%
3,30%
25,90%
19,40%
7,90%
13,50%
17,40%
2,80% Road transportation
Other transport
Energy supply
Industry
Private and commercialbuildingsAgriculture
Lumbering
Waste and waste water
Page 10 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Transportation: a critical role in world political issues
18%
6%
45%
18%
8%5% Road transportation
Other transport
Energy and heat supply
Industry and civilengineering
Residential
Other
Page 11 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
To limit temperature increase to 2°C in 2050, GHG concentration must be constrained below 450ppm.
This means cutting worldwide CO2 emissions by half (2050 vs 2000).
Climate
Page 12 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
In the case of road transportation, trends point to a doubling of CO2 emissions rather than a reduction
by 2!
G8 – Heiligendamm, June 2007 reduce CO2 by 50%!
Page 13 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Mr. Ban Ki Moon: UN Secretary General (UN Security Council’s first debate on climate change. April 17th, 2007)
“Limited or threatened access to energy (and scarce resources) is already known
to be a powerful driver of conflict. Our changing planet
risks making it more so.”
Page 14 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Consequence:
Very shortly (in the preparation of « Post-Kyoto » agreements),
drastic regulations will impose dramatic changes in energy use
and transportation patterns. This must be integrated in our strategic
vision of road mobility.
Page 15 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
On a global basis, the next 25 years will witness (1)
continued dominance of ICEs and liquid hydrocarbon fuels (with enhanced combustion efficiency, exhaust gas treatment and fuel evolutions)
Page 16 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Fv
Energy to overcome resistance
Fv
On average, at 100km/h: FA>50%, FRR>20%, FI + FV>20% City driving: weak FA , %FRR , %FI
Vehicle Inertia (M)FI
Rolling resistance (M,S)
Vehicle internal losses
Aerodynamic drag (ACd,S)
FA
FV
FRRFRR
Page 17 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
On a global basis, the next 25 years will witness (2)
Reduced consumption:• Engine efficiency: upgraded from 30% to 40%• Reduced cylinderpower• Reduced vehicle mass• Optimised aerodynamcs, tires, internal frictions
Diversified fuel:• Biofuels• Natural gas + synthetic fuels (GTL + CTL)• Hydrogene• Multifuel engine technologies
+ (urban) benefits of hybridation
Page 18 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
On a global basis, the next 25 years must also witness (3)
dynamic market penetration of hybrid vehicles (featuring various degrees of hybridization) and electric vehicles.
Page 19 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
On a global basis, the next 25 years must also witness (4)
significant development of:combined active and passive safety systems,car-to-car and car-to-infrastructure communication,ITS technologies
to enable (in particular), cars to be both lighter and safer.
Page 20 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Ragone Plot for various types of batteries
Page 21 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Vehicle design and technology evolutions: key features
From ICE injection optimization to electric powertrain management, electronics and electric power become critical.
Electrical energy storage deserves maximum attention: batteries and supercapacitors will play a major role.
By the time electric powertrains become mass marketed, « by wire » technology will also have to be developed. It is a key to weight reduction.
Page 22 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
1. the future will be multi-technological2. vehicles will be much lighter3. in the « post Kyoto » agreement
negotiations, road transportation actors will be called upon to make substantial efforts.
an acceleration in electric engine development.
Three things are sure:
One we can predict:
Page 23 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
An interesting case: China
China set forth its 3 priorities: Reduce oil consumption and develop
know-how in terms of alternative sources of energy
Bridge the gap with Europe, Japan and the United States as regards emission standards so as to curb urban pollution
Promote a revolution in propulsion systems
Page 24 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Mr. Katsuaki Watanabe: CEO, Toyota
“If it fails to take environmental measures, the
automotive industry has no future”.
Mr. Hiroyuki Watanabe: Director for Research, Toyota
“The future of cars is electric” (Shanghai, November 15, 2007)
Page 25 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
So far electric vehicles have failed to rise to expectations owing to:
poor autonomy (cell capacity + protracted charging time)
overweight « overpriced » vehicles unsupportive psychological and regulatory environment
maintenance network issuesdoubtful “life cycle” level benefits
EV: strong resistanceto be overcome!
Page 26 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Photovoltaic pannels
Electric Current
Water
Hydrogen
Oxygen
Fuel cell Electric drive
vehicle
Exhaust: Water
Sun rays Storageup to
300 bars
Storageup to
300 bars
Electrolysis + Compression
Clean mobility: it works !
Page 27 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
A decarbonizing economy does not
mean economic decline!!!
Page 28 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Innovation in low carbon
technologies is both a societal and an industry
necessity.
Page 29 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Lack of innovation
leads to price war.
Page 30 / Patrick Oliva – TRB Annual Meeting - Sunday, January 13th
Thank you