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Lessons Learned from National Experiences: Allocating Environmental Water requirements of Lake Urmia, Iran: an Ecohydrological ApproachMukhtar HashemiMukhtar Hashemi ❶ Associate Researcher, The Centre for Land Use and Water Resources Research (CLUWRR), Newcastle University, UK; ❷ Scientific Advisor, The Office of Applied Researches, IWRMC, Ministry of Energy, Iran ❸ National IWRM Consultant, UNDP/GEF Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project, Department of Environment, Iran22-24 Feb 2011Amman- JordanKempinski Hotel
WANA Forum Consultation Workshop
The setting
Lake Urmai Basin Iran
Lake area ~5000 km sq.Basin area ~52,000Population (2006): 5.9 M
The setting: Lake Urmia Basin, Iran
Includes some 13 major urban cities: 2 mega cities
7 % total Iran water resources and 3% of total area
Major agro economy
Lake Urmia Salt lake
Irrigated area 590,000 haFurther planned600,000
Water resources Development
63 dams
Dams:1. Feasibility study stage2. Under constructions 3. Existing
EA: 36 dams 760 MCMWA: 22 dams 2960 MCMKurdistan 5 dams 148 MCM
17 permanent rivers14 seasonal rivers39 flood routes
Lake Urmia: a view from inside
Simply : not enough water to the Lake: up to 7 km retreat
Lake Urmia: Costal retreat
A hydrodynamic scar: Highway bisecting the lake
Inflow decreased by 60% from average mean inflow (Long term)
Climatic variations and Drought: P downward trend 76 mm less than average
Impact on the Lake: Climatic
Source: Williams, 2002)
Salt lakes: Temp, P, net evaporation
5 Human induced factors (Williams, 2002)
1) Surface inflow diversions which will affect both the physical (volume, water level) and chemical (salinity) characteristics of the salt lakes - permanent salt lakes are more inclined to be affected by surface inflow diversions as well as catchment activities;
(2) Catchment activities
(a) secondary (or anthropogenic) salinisation caused by leaching of salt deposits in the catchment of the salt lakes; (sedimentation)
(b) soil erosion, (c) groundwater pumping and (wells
-salt intrusion) (d) urban development; (500% up)
Impact: Human factors
(3) Mining mostly affects dry lakes;
(4) Pollution especially from wastewater and agriculture and (
?5) Anthropogenically-induced climatic and atmospheric changes as climate models predict that the aridity of arid regions will increase.
National Outcry: The fear: another Aral
April 20101271.61
1277.69
Min ecological
1274.1
Mean
1275.37
Lake Level changes: sea of salt
199520012009
New ecohydrology policy
Lake – water to lake should maintain the biodiversity
In this case artima (salt shrimps) Water quantity- lake level Water quality – salt concentration Biodiversity- Artimia
September 2008: breakthrough Multidisciplinary research UNDP/GEF/DoE Conservation of
Iranian Wetlands Project (CIWP) MOU signed by all stakeholders
in 3 provinces EMP was agreed HOW TO Be Implemented?
Institutional Design
Water and Agriculture Working Group (WAWG): Sept 08-July 10
Water allocation strategy
Drought Risk Management Plan management
Demand managementInter-basin transfer
Objective facilitating a stakeholder participation
to reach a decision on water allocation among three provinces sharing the LU basin and
allocating the minimum ecological water requirement of the Lake.
Approach an integrated methodological framework to implement Lake Urmia’s IWRM Plan
The Approach: Socio-technical & Institutional Framework
Linking technical and socio-political (institutional ) frameworks together. Based on:
IWRM Conceptual framework (GWP, 2000) andAnalytical Frameworks:
DPSIR sustainability (EEA, 1999; IMPRESS 2002; Common Implementation Strategy WFD; OECD, 2002; EU, 2002) and
Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework (Ostrom, 1999, 2005)
natural system
Institutional
system
infrastructure
laws,regulatio
ns,management
socio-economicsystem
impactsdemands
Integrated water
resources management,
IWRM
Water Resources System
Integrated Socio-technical and Institutional, ISTI Framework,
Analytical Frameworks :required to 1.study change, 2.predict future trends, 3.assess impacts of policies on the water resources systems and
4.provide alternative options.
DPSIR has four characteristics
VariablesExamples
D, the Drivers: root causes on a macro level described through scenarios representing alternative futures
- Climate change: Climatic driver controls availability of water resources in time and space- Socio-economic drivers include local and global economic development, lifestyles etc - Social: Population growth - Economic: affordability and incentive measures- Institutional: compliance, privatization, legislations/regulation and administrative issues
P, The Pressures (threats) variables: immediate causes
- Demand for water from various sectors- Pollution which impacts on water quality and constrains resource availability e.g. the amount of pollution by wastewater
S, The States: describing physical and measurable characteristics and social livelihood systems
-Income levels, poverty levels- Natural resources/environmental: availability of water/energy/land, water consumption indices, Chemical composition of water, ecosystem state/biodiversity-Economic: level and security of investments, Condition of assets/infrastructure- Social: access to water/link with poverty, ability to pay, social capacity, employment in the water industry- Institutional: institutional arrangements, governance frameworks, capacity and functioning
I, The Impacts: monitor the long term impacts of change defined as changes in states resulting from pressures
- urbanisation -diseases caused by polluted water-changes in consumption behaviour, -environmental degradation
R, The Responses: are problem-solving policies, actions or investments; an appropriate mix of Structural Options e.g. new reservoirs/pipelines etc and Non-Structural Options e.g. legislation, institutional reform, demand management etc.
assemble portfolio of Options into robust Management Strategy-Social: capacity building and awareness raising campaigns. - Environmental: source protection,-Economic: the use of water saving infrastructure, incentives. - Institutional: efficiency measures, accountability, transparency, integration approach
Water allocation: VENSIM system Dynamics Modeling is required by Law in Iran
DPS
I
R
IWRM Conceptual model
Quantitative model-WSM
IAD Institutional Framework
R
Vensim System Dynamic Simulation water balance & Water Allocation
OrumiehLake
normal elevation Lake
Dimention LessElevation Lake
Orumieh Dimensionless Volume
Normal Volume
Elevation of Lake
Outflow
Inflow
P-E
Surface-Volume
Normal P-E
DamInflow 0Spill
Outflow 0
Total Demand-1
Volume- ElevationLook up Volume- Surface
Look up
Elevation-1Surface-1
Evaporation-1
mahabad0Elevation0-1
surface0-1
Mini-volume
Max-Volume
Normal Period-1
Total Supply-1
Shortage-1
NormalEvaporation-1
<FINAL TIME>
MonthlyEvaporation
<Inflow 0>
Comparison of Lake level under different conditions/simulations
IAD: Multi-level institutional framework
Rules
outcome: Sectoral provincial water allocation and consupmtion
ACTION ARENAActors and Action situation
Individuals’ actions that directly affect state variables in the world
OPERATIONAL LEVEL
COLLECTIVE-CHOICE LEVELGovernment policies
External
factors
decison making prespective: Ethical/cultural: Actors’ Perception of water rights/
ethics in rules
Figure 2: Analysis approach: (Ostrom, 1999, 2005)
Attributes of the
community
Biophysical conditions
Bulk provincial Water
Allocation
CONSTITUTIONAL LEVEL
council of Ministers / National Commitee/ Supreme Water Council /Parliament /Council of
Expediency
Figure 1: Modified IAD
Action Arena
CommunityAttributes
Evaluative CriteriaActors
Action Situations
Outcomes
Patterns of Interactions
Rules-in-Use
Source: Kiser and Ostrom, 1982; Ostrom, Gardner, and Walker 1994
Bio-physical Conditions
Ethical/ cultural context
socio-political context
Multilevel analytical framework:
Action arenas
two arenas: national and provincial -two administrative levels (
3 institutional level:
constitutional
collective choice
operational
Figure 1Action situation: water allocation decisions
Outcome: provincial/sectoral water allocation
Provincial Water Companies
PROVENCIAL LEVEL (Constitut
ional, collective
choice and
operational)
NATIONAL LEVEL (constitutional, collective choice and operational)
Parliament
Supreme Water Council
Council of Ministers
MoE: Water Allocation
Commission IWRMC: WR Planning
Directorate
Figure 3
ActorsWater , Agriculture & Natural Resources
Commission
MoE: Parliamentarian Undersecretary
Governors office: Water and Agriculture Commision
water resources development
policies /water pricing. Bulk
water allocation,
1982 Fair water
Distribution Act
Water Pricing
Bill/ water prices
Development Bill/ statuary
allocation priorities 2003 Water
Allocation By-Law
PROVENCIAL LEVEL (Constitut
ional, collective
choice and
operational)
NATIONAL LEVEL (constitutional, collective choice and operational)
Constitution, Water Vision, Council of Expediency and
Supreme Leader’s Water Directive ,
other relevant Acts e.g. 1905 Civil Code revised 1989; 1974 Environmental Act
Provincial water allocation priorities
outcome: Provincial sectoral water allocations
Figure 4
Rules
Attributes of the communityThe size and composition of the community
size: 3 provinces over 5 million peopleethnic (Kurdsih, Turkish-Azari)ethics/religion: Sunni and Shiite Muslim; as well as a small community of Assyrian and Armenian Christians
low level of common understanding about the action situation; lack of trust between different provinces
low level of homogeneity in the preferences and priorities of the provinces
there are disparity or inequality of basic assets among the provinces ????
Decision-making perspectivesdecision-making perspective framework acts
as a conceptual model filtering human perspectives and measuring cultural and ethical influences on the policy- making decisions.
3 components: the human elements of ethics or human perspectives (Spranger, 1928)
cultural context of ethics which relates to the environment in which decision making takes place.
legal context of belief (religion) (This is optional)
Example: to assess the extent of central government’s recognition of local level basin governanceIAD framework is used, i.e. the extent of
bottom up and decentralization processes, which is the cornerstone of IWRM. One would start with some policy options from the IAD analysis, then feed these through to DPSIR to provide some of the Drivers, and then iterate back to the IAD so that the various management options/strategies/plans can be fed into the policy making framework to reshape policy etc
Outcome: At national level/collective choice: New Law:
Total water in basin 6.9 BCM LU water rights approved by Council of Ministers – legal statuary – min ecological 3.1 BCM
3.7 BCM allocated among 3 provincdes
OUTCOME: action arena/WAWG and NC: 3rd of July 2010
Provincial allocations were made First time ever in Iran to make a
decision based on stakeholder involvement and in a transparent way
A major achievement in the environmental history of modern Iran
Conclusions: Water Allocation decision situation
Multi-stakeholder platform Good governance: Political support and will; transparency
LU water rights
MSP speed is…………slow 21 months to make a decision
Final remark: technical uncertainty polarized opinions
Technical narratives regarding data, scientific methodological approaches have dominated policy/decision making during WAWG
e.g. the question of droughts, climate change, reasons for LU's water level drop etc have been a source of debate and disagreement.
There are disagreements about 'facts', data, and evidence etc but the most evident indicator has been overseen: the lake level is falling and no one doubts this fact
Further work: Ethical and cultural
Water allocation decisions are influenced by cultural and ethical aspects which represent a dimension of the community attributes; and should not be ignored in the institutional analysis.
Human (capacity) development-maqaadid Model Islamic Legal theory
enrichment of faith
enrichment of intellect/reason
safeguarding posterity
enrichment ofwealth
invigorating the Human
self
human development
Maqasid Model
Revelation/ religion
Experiencesculture
Intellect/reason
Islamic Legal
Theory
sustainability science
IWRM Framework
environmental sustainability
equity/ justice economic efficiency
IWRM plan
good governance
DPSIR Analytical Framework
Pressures
Drivers State/impact
Responses
IDA Framework
Rules in Use
Community AttributesBiophysical Conditions
Ethical and Cultural Perspective
Thanks for your attention
School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences