Lessons Learned from Regional Solar Procurement:
Feb. 26, 2018 | Nashville, TN
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Setting the StageTurn to a neighbor and discuss:
– What is the role of solar in your co-op TODAY?
– What will the role of solar be IN 20 YEARS?
Transforming global energy use to create a clean, prosperous, and secure low-carbon future.
Lessons Learned from Regional Solar Procurement:Introductory Remarks
Kevin Brehm | Feb. 26, 2018 | Nashville, TN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
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Big Questions and Key Takeaways• What’s it cost?
• What’s it worth?
• How should I get it?
• Distributed solar now costs $50/MWh or less in parts of the country
• Distributed solar avoids energy, transmission, and other costs
• Demand aggregation and competitive procurement reduce prices 30% or more
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Community-Scale Solar (Distribution-Scale Solar) is Accessible to Distribution Co-ops and G&Ts
Behind-the-meter
Community-Scale Utility-Scale
Size (Capacity) <500 kW 500kW – 10 MW 10 MW+
Interconnection Behind-the-meter
Distribution Grid Transmission Grid
Energy Off-taker HomesBusinesses
Distribution utilitiesG&T utilitiesCommunity solar subscribers (homes/ businesses)
G&T utilities
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What’s it Cost?Solar is now cost-competitive with thermal generation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Solar with Storage Solar
Xcel 2017 RFP ResultsMedian Bid
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Levelized Cost of Energy 2009 – 2017*(Modeled)
* Source: Lazard (Does not include solar investment tax credit); Xcel Solicitation Report
$/MWh
359
Nuclear
Coal
CCNG
Solar
123111
83
148
60
102
50 36 29
$/MWh
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Low-Cost Solar is Available at Community-ScaleWhat’s it cost?
~$50-55/MWh
<$45/MWh
~$50/MWh
Location Size of Project PPA Price
Carrizozo,NM
3 MW (operating) <$45/MWh*
Eastern Colorado
2 MW (in development)
~$50-55/MWh (expected)
Central Texas
2 MW (in development)
~$50/MWh (expected)
Nashville,TN
2 MW (Modeled only)
$57/MWh(Modeled only)
~$57/MWh
Solar Resource: kWh/m2/Day>6 5-6 4-5 3-4
Sources: Union of Concerned Scientists, NREL, RMI RFPs, RMI Analysis, NREL System Advisor Model
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0102030405060708090
100
PPA Price Avoided costs
What’s it worth?CSS avoids energy, demand, and other charges
Avoided Energy
Avoided Demand (4CP)
Avoided Other Charges
0102030405060708090
100PPA Cost vs Value (ERCOT, 2018)$/MWh
5057
PPA Cost vs Value 2019-2039
Baseline Inflation
0% InflationPPA
Source: RMI Analysis, RMI RFPs, EIA
$/MWh
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10%
How should I get it?
Third-party support can improve outcomes and reduce staff burden:- Developers can capture tax credits and bring project experience- Buyers representatives can streamline and improve procurement and contracting
5052545658606264
0 10 20 30 40Regional Portfolio Size (MW)
New Mexico Colorado Texas
0102030405060708090
100
10%% Median 90% 10% Median 90% 25% Median 75%
$/MWh
New Mexico Colorado Texas
Competitive Procurement and Demand Aggregation Can Reduces Prices by 30%
Range of PPA Bids: NM, CO, TX (1 MW Project)
Source: RMI RFPs
20%
28%
$/MWh
53
65
83
PPA Bids by Portfolio Size
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Shine is Addressing Barriers to Grow the Community-Scale Solar MarketNew Report
Progress Potential
visit rmi.org/shine
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Big Questions and Key Takeaways• What’s it cost?
• What’s it worth?
• How should I get it?
• Distributed solar costs less than $50/MWh in parts of the country
• Distributed solar avoids energy, transmission, and other costs
• Demand aggregation and competitive procurement reduce prices 30% or more
• What does this mean for co-op strategy?
Thank [email protected]://www.rmi.org/shine