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April 2011

OFFICE OF CHIEF ECONOMIST

IInnddoonneessiiaa UUppddaatteeBI kept rate unchaged at 6.75%, SBI minimum holding period extended

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% in governor boards meeting,

in line with our and consensus expectations, as inflationary pressures moderated in

March. Yet, the possibility of rate hike remains open given looming inflation risk

particularly from higher global commodity prices and rising domestic demand. Thecentral bank would allow currency to appreciate further to curb inflation as it has

not adversely affected exports competitiveness. At the same time, it will also extend

the minimum holding period of its SBI note to 6 months from previously only 1

month, to prevent sudden capital reversal and to prolong foreigners investment

horizon. However, as the government delayed fuel rationing until indefinite period,

there are possibilities rate increase could be pushed back to the 2H11.

Heavy Equipment Industry Grows in Line with Commodity Prices

Most of heavy equipments are used in the mining, plantation, construction and

forestry sectors. Demand for heavy equipment from the forestry sector is related to

the growth of timber process-based industry, such as pulp and paper as well as

plywood industries.

Most of heavy equipment companies in Indonesia are affiliated with foreign

companies. Komatsu, the major brand of United Tractors controls the market of

heavy equipment industry with 46% market share. Hexindo, which relies on Hitachi,

controls 19% of the market share, Catterpillar (Trakindo) 16%, Kobelco (12%) and

other brands up to 7%. There is a fierce price competition among the players in this

industry. It is not only involved the existing players, but also the entry of new

products from Korea and China.

Food and Beverage Industry Outlook 2011

The market of processed food and beverage products in 2011 is estimated has

positive growth. The sales value of food and beverage products is projected to

increase within the range from 9% YoY up to 14% YoY (optimistic scenario).

However, increasing price of oil and food commodities will become an obstacles inachieving the targeted sales growth.

CCoonntteennttss

BI kept rate unchaged at 6.75%, SBIholding period extended

p.02

Heavy Equipment Industry Growsin Line with Commodity Prices

p.05

Food and BeverageIndustry Outlook 2011

p.13

Mandiri Current Forecast p.26Indonesia Current Data (Table) p.27

AAnnaallyyssttFaisal Rino Bernando

Rini Setyowati

M. Ajie Maulendra

Nadia Kusuma Dewi

Nurul Yuniataqwa Karunia

Sindi ParamitaReny Eka Putri

Ahmad Subhan Irani

PPuubblliiccaattiioonn AAddddrreessss::Bank Mandiri Head Office

Office of Chief Economist

21st

Floor, Plaza Mandiri

Jalan Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav.36-38

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

Phone: (62-21) 5245516 / 5272

Fax: (62-21) 5210430

EEmmaaiill::[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

SSeeee iimmppoorrttaannttddiissccllaaiimmeerraatttthhee eennddooff

tthhiiss mmaatteerriiaall

Foreign holding in SBI

-

10

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90

Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11

0

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% of total (RHS)

Amount (IDR tn, LHS)

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Oce of Chief EconomistPage 2 of 28

Bank Indonesia kept the BI rate unchanged at 6.75% in

yesterday's governor boards meeting, in line with our and

consensus expectations. The central bank expects recent

Rupiahs appreciation will help restrain imported inflation.

Thus, with moderating headline inflation reading that mainly

due to harvesting season, the central bank opts to hold the

rate hike this month. Yet, despite the decision, the centralbank explicitly mentioned that room for further rate hike

remains open should inflationary pressure build up again.

Bank Indonesia tends to allow further currency appreciation,

and will only leave the rate hike only in the event of significant

increase in inflationary pressures, in our opinion. The central

bank sees that the appreciation has not harmed exports

competitiveness as it is reflected in healthy growth in non-oil

and gas exports, which we agree with. The peer currencies

appreciation and Indonesia commodity based exports has

helped support export competitiveness.

Based on real effective exchange rate that measures

competitiveness across countries by taking into account

currency appreciation and inflation of country trading

partners, it shows that the Rupiahs real appreciation is still

within the regional average (see picture 4). We estimate that

it would provide another 2%-3% appreciation from its position

in Feb11 to around IDR 8,600/USD before hurting export

competitiveness, assuming peer currencies and inflation

BI kept rate unchaged at 6.75%, SBI minimum holding period

extended

Destry Damayanti ([email protected])Aldian Taloputra ([email protected])

Figure 1. Apr11 BI Rate Summary. (Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas)

(%) Dec-09 Dec-10 Mar-11 Apr-11

Headline Inflation (% yoy) 6.50 6.50 6.75 6.75

Headline Inflation (% morr) 6.50 6.50 6.75 6.75

Headline Inflation (% ytd) 6.50 6.50 6.75 6.75

Core Inflation (% yoy) 2.78 6.50 6.84

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Oce of Chief Economist Page 3 of 28

constant. Thus, we believe any further appreciation in the

Rupiah will be in line with regional currencies movement.

In addition to the appreciation, the central bank also

tightened the macro prudential measures, by extending the

minimum holding period of central bank paper (SBI) from

minimum one month to six months, effective May 13th

. The

policy will help prevent sudden capital outflows and reduce

the flexibility of the foreign accesses to the central bank paper

as the longer holding period will increase foreigners exposure

to currency risk, thus increase the cost of foreign exchange

hedging. For comparison, the 1-month USD/IDR non-

deliverable forward (NDF) implied forward premium is 48

points (0.5%), compared with 275 points (3%) of the 6-mo

contract according to Bloomberg. Yet, the impact on the

overall foreign inflows, remain to be seen, as foreigners still

can buy government bonds, without any restriction. Even with

hedging, we estimate that the foreign investors are still able to

receive reasonable positive net return more than 3% by

investing in SBI, assuming they borrow at 6-mo LIBOR rate of

0.5%.

Despite moderating inflationary pressures, we think inflation

risk remains high. Increasing global commodity prices,

triggered by political unrests in the Middle East and North

Africa and weaker USD, and strong domestic demand willpotentially drive inflation, which we expect to end at 6.6% in

2011. We maintain our view for another 25-bp rate hike this

year by end 2Q11. However, as the government delayed fuel

rationing until indefinite period, there are possibilities the rate

hike could be pushed back to the 2H11.

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Figure 2.

Foreign Holding in SBI Continue to Increase even after The Implementation of

Minimum one month holding period in Jul10. (Source: CEIC)

Foreign holdi ng in SBI

-

10

20

30

40

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90

Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11

0

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% of total (RHS)

Amount (IDR tn, LHS)

Figure 3. Rupiah Appreciation is on The Average of Regional Currency Appreciation. (Source:

BIS)

Real Effective Exchange Rate Feb11

(% deviation from base year end 2009=100)11.1

9.3 9.08.0

7.06.2

5.0 4.8 4.3

3.1

2.0

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Russia

Brazil

Singapore

India

Malaysia

Indonesia

China

Thailand

Philippines

Korea

Japan

HongKongSAR

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Heavy Equipment Demand

Most of heavy equipments are used in the mining, plantation,

construction and forestry sectors. In the mining sector, heavy

equipments are used particularly for overburden removal

process. While in plantation sector, heavy equipments are

used widely from land-clearing and land-capping process to

large-scale plantation maintenance process such as those in

the palm plantation. Demand for heavy equipment from the

forestry sector is related to the growth of timber process-based industry, such as pulp and paper as well as plywood

industries.

Heavy equipment sales in Indonesia have fluctuated in line

with the trend of economic structure development. In the

1990s, heavy equipment sales was dominated by the

construction sector during Indonesias rapid development on

infrastructure or property construction. Furthermore after the

1988 crisis, the development of the property and

infrastructure are being stagnant. In fact, the crisis also

brought many projects to a halt. As a result, heavy equipment

sales in this sector were also hampered. On the other hand,

the forestry and mining sectors showed better improvement.

Heavy equipment sales in this decade relied heavily on both

sectors.

Oil price hikes in 2005 forced the manufacturing and power

plant industries to find alternative fuel to replace oil fuel. Coal

was become a choice as at that time coal price was far lower

than oil price, resulting in the huge coal demand both from

export and domestic market. In fact, this brought Indonesia as

the largest coal exporter in the world, replacing Australia

dominance. This very aggressive coal production indeed had a

positive impact on heavy equipment sales.

Heavy Equipment Industry Grows in Line with Commodity PricesRini Setyowati ([email protected])

Heavy equipment sales

in Indonesia fluctuate in

line with the trend of

economic structure

development.

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In addition to coal mining sector, increasing oil price also had a

positive effect on the development of the global crude palm

oil (CPO) price in which CPO currently can be used as raw

material for biodiesel, the substitute for oil fuel. High CPO

price pushes investors to conduct expansion by opening land

for palm plantation which requires a lot of heavy equipments.

As of mid 2000s until now, heavy equipment in the mining

and plantation sector has been the driver of the national

heavy equipment sales.

In the 4th

quarter-2008, heavy equipment business which

indicated a rapid demand from 2004 to the 3rd

quarter-2004

began to weaken. The fall of coal commodity price and CPOwas the driver of declining demand for heavy equipment.

Figure 4. National Heavy Equipment Sales. Heavy equipment demand comes from theconstruction, forestry, plantation and mining sector. The mining and plantation sectors arecurrently the primary driver of the national heavy equipment demand. (Source: United Tractors)

Mining

Agriculture

ConstructionForestry

0

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4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Mining

Agriculture

ConstructionForestry

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In the early 2009, increase in the price of energy as well as

mining and plantation primary commodity products created a

conductive climate due to the rapidly increasing export value

of these products, making primary commodity export the

main driver of the domestic economic growth. Commodity

booming up to the first semester of 2008 created an

increasing demand for heavy equipment with an indent period

of 3-6 months. However, a drop in the global mining and

plantation commodity prices as well as strict liquidity had

resulted in the decline in heavy equipment demand in the

second semester of 2008, leading to large inventory. For your

information, the level of inventory of heavy equipment

manufacturers reached to 4-5 months of heavy equipment

requirement, while in the normal circumstances, it only

reached about 1.5 2 months. This triggered price war among

the existing brands until Q109. Heavy equipment sales in

2009 showed a rapid decrease. Total demand for heavy

equipment at the national level in 2009 only reached 6,644

units, dropping to 31% if compared to the 2008 sales which

reached 9,684 units.

The national heavy equipment sales in 2010 reached 11,781

units, indicating a rise of 77% (YoY) supported by the high

price of coal commodity and CPO as well as the low interest

rate and base effectfactor. The heavy equipment demand in

2011 is estimated to grow by around 10% stimulated by the

optimism of industry players, particularly for coal mining

which is supported with the expectedly high coal, nickel, lead

and gold price in the short run. Moreover, the demand for

heavy equipment in the construction sector is expected to rise

along with the budget increase in the infrastructure sector

which reaches 36% from IDR 35.9 trillion to IDR 56.5 trillion.

The national construction sector is expected to grow by 7%

and contributes 10.4% to the GDP in 2011.

The national heavy

equipment sales in 2010

reached 11,781 units,

indicating a rise of 77%

(YoY) supported by the

high price of coal

commodity and CPO as

well as the low interest

rate as well as base

effect factor

Commodity booming up tothe first semester of 2008

created an increasing

demand for heavy

equipment

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The increase in BI-rate is estimated to have less effect on the

purchasing power of heavy equipment consumers, particularly

heavy equipments in the mining sector. A rise in BI-rate,

however would affect Rupiah-based loan rate. Non-mining

heavy equipment uses more Rupiah-based loan. A rateincrease by 1% is still relatively acceptable to heavy

equipment industry. In overall, heavy equipment sales are

more influenced by the outlook of commodity price. Heavy

equipment demand in 2011 would be stimulated by the

mining and plantation sectors, particularly palm plantation.

The expected rise in oil and gas price which is supported by

the high coal import from China and India as well as disruption

in supply-side are estimated to maintain coal price at a high

level. The rising stripping ratio trend in coal mining would

increase the need for heavy equipment in this sector.

The increase in BI rate is

estimated to have no

effect on the purchasing

power of heavy

equipment consumers,

particularly heavy

equipments in the

mining sector

Figure 5. National Heavy Equipment Sales. In addition to the high commodity price, the national

heavy equipment sales are also supported by the low interest rate. As much as 90 % of the heavy

equipment sales still rely on financing from multi-finance and banking sources. (Source: United

Tractors, Bloomberg)

1,643 1,447 1,6932,247

3,964

4,9934,687

7,038

9,684

6,644

11,781

13,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18Heavy Equipment Sales (Units) SBI Rate (3 Months)

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Current CPO price soars above the highest level in 2008. The

following are among contributory factors in the high CPOprice:

Growing demand from the largest consumers, namelyChina and India

Targeted increase in the global biodiesel production Disrupted supply in line with the change of climate

leads to an increase in food commodity price, including

CPO

CPO price is also affected by the fluctuation in theglobal oil price and its substitute commodities.

CPO price affects the companys financial capacity to makeinvestment.

Figure 6. Oil and Coal Price Growth.Coal price indicates more rapid growth if compared to thatof oil price because coal demand continues to mark a consistent increase, while oil price declines.

Fuel substitute from oil fuel to coal in the power plant and manufacturing industries requires

investment cost for special boiler. (Source: Bloomberg)

0

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USD/Ton

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USD/barrelCoal Pr ice (LHS) Crude Oil Pr ice (RHS)

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The forestry and construction sectors continue expected to

grow at a moderate level. Pulp & paper market currently

shows a stagnant trend as the global economy has not made

full recovery, resulting in the relatively stable pulp price.

In 2011, the government sets the national infrastructure

development as its priority as marked with the increase in the

budget allocation if compared to last year. However, the

realization of this budget would be difficult due to several

issues, such as land acquisition. Positive growth in the

construction sector is currently more encouraged by the

development of infrastructure construction in the Eastern

Indonesia in line with the era of Regional Autonomy

promoting the need for infrastructure facilities, such as airport

renovation, seaport, trans-Sulawesi roads and land clearing for

palm plantation.

Figure 7. Crude Palm Oil Price Development. CPO price in 2011 has reached its highest level in2008 stimulated by the high demand and disrupted supply. (Source: Bloomberg)

Positive growth in the

construction sector is

mostly due to the

development of

infrastructure

construction in the

Eastern Indonesia

The forestry and

construction sectors

growth continue to be

at a moderate level

0

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1400

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

USD/Ton

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Heavy Equipment Supply

Most of heavy equipment companies in Indonesia are

affiliated with foreign companies. United Tractors is affiliated

with Komatsu, Hexindo with Hitachi, Trakindo Utama with

Caterpillar, PT Intraco Penta with Volvo, Kobelco, Ingersol

Rand, Bobcat, as well as PT Tatindo Hexaprima with

Sumitomo.

Several players dominate the heavy equipment industry.

Komatsu, the major brand of United Tractors controls the

market of heavy equipment industry with 46% market share.

Hexindo, which relies on Hitachi, controls 19% of the market

share, Catterpillar (Trakindo) 16%, Kobelco (12%) and other

brands up to 7%. There is a fierce price competition among

the players in this industry. It is not only involved the existing

players, but also the entry of new products from Korea and

China.

Most of heavy

equipment companies

in Indonesia are

affiliated with foreigncompanies

United Tractors

controls the market

of heavy equipment

industry with 46%

market share

Figure 8. Heavy Equipment National Market Share. Komatsu still dominates the national heavy

equipment market share of 46%. Komatsu sales are particularly in the mining and plantation

sectors. Hitachi controls the heavy equipment market in the forestry and plantation sectors.

(Source: United Tractors)

Kobelco12%

Others7%

Caterpillar16%

Hitachi,19%

Komatsu,

46%

2010 Market Share By Sector

Mining Agro Construction Forestry

Komatsu 53% 49% 37% 26%

Caterpillar 19% 11% 16% 10%

Hitachi 11% 27% 16% 40%

Kobelco 5% 13% 27% 24%

Others 12% 0% 4% 0%

Market Share By Sector

Mining Agro Construction Forestry

Komatsu 53% 49% 37% 26%

Hitachi 11% 27% 16% 40%

Others 12% 0% 4% 0%

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The majority (90%) of the heavy equipment sales are funded

by financing industry. However in the multi-finance industry

itself, heavy equipment financing only contributes 12% to

their total financing. Multi-finance business is still focused on

automotive financing, reaching 80% of the total revenues of

multi-finance companies. If compared to 2009, the financing

factoring indicated a decrease by 5.9%, despite of the

improved NPL from 5.9% to 3.4%. Although multi-finance

industry becomes the main source of heavy equipment

financing, the banking sector also begins to target this market.

Domestic heavy equipment supply is affected by the

earthquake and tsunami in Japan as it still relies heavily on the

imported heavy equipment machine components. 80% of raw

materials still depend on imported steel as the industry still

uses steel with specific quality.

Conclusions

- Heavy equipment demand is estimated to continuegrowing driven by the optimism of industry players,

particularly for coal mining and plantation segment which

is supported by the expectedly high coal, nickel, lead and

gold as well as CPO price in the short run.

- Although in overall, this industry offers relatively goodprospect, but need to pay attention to several factors,

including among other the risk of decrease in commodityprice in the global market, increasingly unpredictable

weather factor, increase in the inflation and interest rate

as well as regulations related to mining and plantation

industries.

The majority of the

heavy equipment sales

are funded by financing

industry

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The solid macroeconomic condition is estimated to persist in

2011. This year, Indonesias economy is estimated to grow by

6.3% (YoY), domestic demand will remain functioning as the

driving factor, which is estimated to grow by 7.3% (YoY). Such

growth of domestic demand will certainly have positive

impacts on the food and beverage industry.

However, the relatively high volatility of the prices of food

commodities and energy in 2011 should also be taken intoaccount in relation to this industry. This is necessary because

some of food commodities like wheat and sugar are used as

raw materials for the food and beverage industry.

Optimism on consumption side

To see the actual condition of food and beverage product

consumption, we can observe several indicators, namely the

real retail sales index of food and tobacco, consumers

expectations and the sales of food and beverage products.

During the last year, the real retail sales index of food and

tobacco released by Bank Indonesia indicated an increasing

and relatively stable trend. In more details, the movement of

the real retail sales index of food and tobacco in January up to

February 2011 was still increasing, while on the contrary, the

total real retail sales index (covering all types of commodities,

including food and tobacco) was decreasing. Such condition

may be caused by the pressure posed by the relatively high

level of inflation during the period of January - February 2011,

so that it is expected to affect the peoples purchasing power

and to lead to a decline in the consumption of goods in

general. Even though the consumption of goods in general is

decreasing, the consumption of food and beverage products is

estimated to remain stable as indicated by the movement of

the real retail sales index of food and tobacco.

Food and Beverage Industry Outlook 2011M. Ajie Maulendra ([email protected])

Domestic demand,

which is estimated to

grow by 7.3% (YoY),

remains the driving

factor for economic

growth

Even though the

consumption of goods

in general is

decreasing, the

consumption of food

and beverage products

is estimated to remain

stable as indicated by

the movement of theretail real sales index

of food and tobacco

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Another indicator to observe the trend of food and beverage

consumption is the consumer expectation index. According to

the consumer expectation index released by Bank Indonesia as

of February 2011, the consumers being surveyed were

relatively optimistic that their income for the next six months

will increase. This is reflected on the increase of the index as

from January up to February 2011 by 2.8 points. In line with

the expectation of better income, the respondents in the

aforementioned survey conducted by BI estimated that their

consumption will increase in the future especially for foodstuff

and processed food.

In 2011, GAPMMI (Indonesia Association of Food and

Beverage Industry) estimated that the sales of food and

beverage products will reach IDR 660 trillion, or grow by

approximately 9% compared to the previous year. Under themost optimistic scenario, GAPMMI estimated that such sales

figure may grow by 14% (YoY) or to reach IDR 690 trillion.

However, there are several obstacles hampering such growth

of 14%, including consumption expenditure pattern which will

continue prioritizing basic food stuff, such as rice, vegetables,

chillies, etc., over processed food and beverage products in

the event of an increase of the prices of those foodstuff. The

prices of basic foodstuff may potentially increase in 2011

mainly due to climate change.

The prices of basic

foodstuff maypotentially increase in

2011 mainly due to

climate change.

..consumers being

surveyed were

relatively optimistic

that their income for

the next six months

will increase

Figure 9. Increasing Trend of real retail sales index. The movement of index above indicates an

increasing trend of food consumption despite the pressure posed by inflation. (Source: Bank

Indonesia)

253.7253

268.8265.1

259.2269.2

273.8292.8

291.8293

331.2325

316.6327.9

318.3326.5

332.8

204.9206.9

221.5

213.6 207.3

213.5

217.9

227.7231

240.8

257.9263.2

242.8245.8

269.7256.3

245.1

Oct-09

Nov-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jan-1

0

Feb-1

0

Mar-1

0

Apr-1

0

May-1

0

Jun-1

0

Jul-10

Aug-1

0

Sep-1

0

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

food and tobacco real retail sales index total real retail sales index

% yoy

% yoy

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Several players in the food and beverage industry also have

positive view regarding business propects for this year, so that

they are generally targetting increase of sales. Those players

are, among others:

- PT. Garudafood Putra Putri Jaya, which is targetting salesincrease of 100% (YoY) in 2011 or to become IDR10 trillion.

- PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk, which is targeting salesincrease of 49% (YoY) in 2011 for the food sector to

become IDR 1 trillion.

- PT. Siantar Top, which is targetting sales increase of 20%(YoY) in 2011 to become IDR900 billion.

- PT. Mayora Indah, which is targetting sales increase of25%(YoY) in 2011 to become IDR8.75 trillion.

In 2011, GAPMMI

estimated the sales of

food and beverageproducts will reach

IDR 660 trillion, or will

grow by

approximately 9%

compared to the

previous year

Figure 10. Stable sales growth.The domestic sales of food and beverage products grows in arelatively stable manner. When there is an increase of the prices of the products, demandswould usually decrease for two or three months and afterwards the demands would graduallyincrease.(Source: GAPMMI, Mandiri Group Estimates)

*

383

505

555

605

660690

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F

Food and Beverage Sales

(IDR trillion)GDP Growth and Consumption

Spending

(%)

6

7.4

5.5 5.3

7.8

6.3 6.1

4.6

6.1 6.3

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F

Domestic Demand Rea l GDP GrowthIDR 660 Trillion = Moderate Scenario

IDR 690 Trillion = Optimism Scenario

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The Association of Indonesian Soft Drink Manufacturers

(Asrim) also estimated a relatively high growth in the beverage

market. The sales of energy drinks is estimated to grow by

10% in 2011, to become IDR3.8 trillion from IDR3.5 trillion in

the previous year. Meanwhile, the sales of isotonic drinks in

2011 is estimated to grow by 15% - 20% (YoY), or to reach

IDR1.72 IDR1.8 trillion. Asrim also estimated that the market

for ready-to-drink tea will increase by 7.5% (YoY) this year.

Competition in increasing production

The optimism about the increase in public consumption has

made food and beverage manufacturers enthusiastic to

increase their production in 2011. With such increase of

production, the players in this industry are expected to be

able to meet their sales targets which have been set to reach

significant increase this year. GAPMMI projected that

investments in the food and beverage industry in 2011 would

reach IDR39 trillion, or to grow by 56% compared to the last

years figure of IDR25 trillion. With such increase of

investments, the capacity of the food and beverage industry is

targeted to increase by 15-20%.

GAPMMI projected

that investments in the

food and beverage

industry in 2011 wouldreach IDR39 trillion, or

to grow by 56%

compared to the last

years figure of IDR 25

trillion.

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In line with the aforementioned projection, GAPMMI noted

that several large scale food and beverage producers will

invest in the forms of the construction of new plants or

improvement of production capacity this year. Those

producers are PT. Mayora Indah Tbk, which will construct two

candy and biscuit factories in Tangerang with investments of

IDR 700 billion, PT. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food, which will

increase the capacity of its factories and conduct machine

restructuring with investments of IDR200-300 billion, PT.

Indofood Tbk, which will increase its production capacity with

investments of IDR3 trillion, as well as Nippon Sari, which will

construct three factories in North Sumatra, South Sulawesi

and Jakarta with investments of IDR160 240 billion.

Figure 11. Main Contributor. Food and beverage industry is one of main contributors for non oil

and gas manufacturing sector in Indonesia. The government has set the target that the

production of the food, beverage and tobacco industry would grow by 7.9% (YoY) in 2011,

indicating an increase from the target for 2010 of 6.64% (YoY). (Sources: Central Statistics

Agency, news in the media)

GDP Share of Non Oil and Gas

Manufacturing Industry

29.8%

9.8%

3.8%5.2%

13.3%3.0%

1.5%

32.9%

0.7%

Food, Beverages a nd

Tobacco Indu stries

Textil e, Lea ther Productsand Footwear

Wood Products andOther Wood Products

Paper and Printing

Fertilizers, Chemical andRubbe r Products

Cement and Nonmetali cQuarrying Products

Bas ic Metal, Iron andSteel

Trans port Equipment,Machinery and Apparatus

Other Manufa cturingProducts

Several large scale

food and beverage

producers will invest inthe forms of the

construction of new

plants or improvement

of production capacity

this year

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Food and beverage industry has always been influenced by

product innovation each year. This results in relatively tight

competition in this industry even though the products of

large-scale players are still dominating the market. In the food

sector, the market of instant noodle products is currently

dominated by Indofood (ICBP) with a market share of 66%. Its

closest competitor is Wings Food, with a market share of 26%.

Even though Indofood is currently controlling the market, its

share has decreased compared to its share in 2002. During

that period, Indofood controlled the market of instant noodle

with a market share of 90%. In addition, other instant noodle

products, such as Nissin Mas, PT. ABC and TPS Food, have

been increasingly gaining market shares and contributing to

the increasingly intensive competition in the instant noodle

market.

While in the beverage sector, the markets of ready-to-drink

tea and energy drinks are still expected to grow positively in

2011. As mentioned earlier, the sales of ready-to-drink tea is

expected to grow by 7.5%(YoY) this year, while the sales of

energy drink is expected to grow by 10% (YoY). The market

share of packaged tea drinks is still dominated by Sinar Sosro

(65%) followed by its closest competitor Orang Tua Group

(20%). Both of them targeting an increase of sales in 2011.

Sinar Sosro sets a target for sales increase of 10 12%, while a

higher target is set by Orang Tua Group, namely 45% this year.

In the food sector, the

market of instant

noodle products is

currently dominated

by Indofood (ICBP)with a market share of

66%

The market share of

packaged tea drinks is

still dominated by

Sinar Sosro (65%)

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In addition to competition among domestic players in the

industry, the producers also face competition from imported

products. Seen from the nominal value, imports of processedfood and beverage products during the last two years have

indicated a relatively significant increase. In 2010, imports of

those products reached USD2,439.6 million or increased as

high as 78.4% compared to the same in 2009 namely USD

1,367.3 million. By comparing the value of imported processed

food and beverage products to the value of other imported

goods, it can be concluded that processed food and beverage

products are among the category of most imported consumer

goods.

Figure 12. Competition in Domestic Markets. Markets for processed food and beverage

products are still promising for the manufacturers. For example, the current consumption of soft

drinks in Indonesia, which is still relatively low namely 43 liters/capita, is targeted to increase to

100 liters/capita in 2015. (Source: Indonesian Soft Drink Industry Association)

Indofood

66.3%

Wings

Food

25.5%

Others

8.2%

Instant Noodle Market

Share in Indonesia

Sinar

Sosro

65%

Orng

Tua

Group

20%

Coca

Cola

Indonesi

a,

Pepsi,Ot

hers

15%

Packaging /BottleTea Market

Share in Indonesia

.. the producers also

face competition from

imported products

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Such condition is certainly an indication that there have beenincreasingly large amount of imported food and beverage

products, resulting in fiercer competition for the players in the

food and beverage sector. In addition to the increase in the

imports of food and beverage products, entrepreneurs

engaging in the food and beverage sector are also concerned

about the increasingly rampant inflow of illegal imported

products during the last few years. According to GAPMMI,

illegal imports in 2010 was estimated to reach 10 15% of the

total amount of products circulated in the market.

If no action is taken on this matter, the portion of illegally

imported goods is feared to increase continuously and take up

the market share of the domestic industry. Based on a survey

conducted by GAPMMI, most of those illegally imported

products are sold in a number of traditional markets, such as

in Semarang, Solo and Yogyakarta. Those products are

generally in the forms of biscuits and peanut products. In

addition the concern about business competition, such

Figure 13. Competition with imported goods. The value of imports of food and beverage

products in Q1 2011 rose by 6% (YoY) to USD 44.88 million from USD 42.34 million in Q1 2010.

The largest imports of food and beverage products are from Malaysia, in Q1 2011 imports of

food and beverage products from Malaysia reached USD 6.72 million or 15% of the total imports

of food and beverage products. (Source: Ministry of Trade)

Imports of Consumer Goods

24.4%

9.7%9.2%

2.5%

10.8%

13.7%

15.4%

2.6%

11.7%

Prima ry food a nd be verage

Processed food and beverage

Processed Fuel and Lubricants

Pass enger vehicles

Trans port equi pment not for industry

Durable consumption goods

Semidurable consumption goods

Non durable consumption goods

Others (not class ified)

The industry is also

concerned about the

increasingly rampant

inflow of illegal

imported products

during the last few

years

Most of those illegally

imported products are

sold in a number of

traditional markets

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illegally imported products are feared to have poor standards

(accordance with halal and hygiene standards).

The increasing price of raw materials

In 2011, the global and domestic economy are still facing the

high prices of crude oil and food commodities. Food and

beverage industry is one of the sectors affected by the high

prices of food commodities. The main raw materials are

wheat, which is used in the making of processed food (flour,

noodle and bread), sugar, which is used in the production of

processed food and beverages (candies, chocolate, packaged

drinks).

Such condition occurs because food and beverage industries

use food commodities in a large amount as raw materials for

their processing.

Food and beverage

industry is one of the

sectors affected by the

high prices of food

commodities

Figure 14. Increase of commodity prices. The average price of wheat is estimated to increase by22% (YoY) in 2011. Meanwhile, the average price of raw sugar this year is estimated to increase

by 24% (YoY). The two commodities are commonly used as raw materials in the food and

beverage industry. (Sumber : Bloomberg)

624.0657.0

782.0800.0 800.0

729.0

2009 2010 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411

Wheat Price Forecast

(US cents/bushel)

16.5

20

3027.8

22.3 21

avg09 avg10 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411

Raw Sugar Price Forecast

(cents/lb)

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In addition to those commodities, CPO is also used as raw

material for the production of processed food, such as

margarine and cooking oil.

Other than CPO, several commodities used as raw materials,

such as wheat and sugar, mostly is imported. To meet the

demands for wheat, wheat flour producers in Indonesia

import the commodity from several countries, such as the

USA, Canada, Argentina and Australia. Whereas raw sugar, the

raw material for processing refined sugar required by food

and beverage industry, must also be imported from several

countries, such as Australia, Brazil and Thailand.

The fluctuation of exchange rate also affects the production

costs of the industry in relation to the purchase of raw

materials. However, the appreciation of Rupiah may become a

deducting factor for the production costs of the food and

beverage industry amidst the increasing prices of commodities

used as raw materials.

several commodities

used as raw materials,

such as wheat and

sugar, must be

imported

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The increase of the world oil prices also contributes to the

increase of the prices of plastic raw materials, leading to the

increase of prices of plastic packaging used by the food and

beverage industry. GAPPMI has estimated the increase of

plastic packaging price would be around 5-15% this year. This

industry is the largest consumer of plastic packaging (60%).

The increase in the production costs occurring in the food and

beverage industry will be charged to the prices of the final

products to be bought by consumers. At the beginning of

2011, GAPMMI estimated that increase of the prices of

processed food and beverage products during 2011 may reach

approximately 10-15%. Such estimate was based on theincrease of the prices of commodities, such as wheat and

sugar, as well as the increase of the costs of energy.

Figure 15. Production costs are estimated to increase. Raw materials (sugar and wheat) as wellas plastic packaging have the largest contributions to the structure of production costs. Increase

of the prices of food commodities, such as wheat and sugar, as well as increase of the prices of

plastic will lead to increase of the production costs for the food and beverage industry. (Source:

GAPMMI )

Raw

Materials

60%

Packaging

27%

Overhead

10%

Labour

3%

Food Industrys

Cost of Production Structure

Beverage Industrys

Cost of Production Structure

Raw

Materials

33%

Packaging

52%

Overhead

12%

Labour

3%

The increase of the

production costs

occurring in the food

and beverage industry

will be charged to the

prices of the final

products to be bought

by consumers

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Financial performance of the players

In line with the optimism of the players in the food and

beverage industry in setting their sales targets, the financial

performance in this industry this year is estimated has positive

outlook.

Conclusions

The market of processed food and beverage products in 2011

is estimated has positive growth. The sales value of food and

beverage products is projected to increase within the range

from 9% YoY up to 14% YoY (optimistic scenario). One of the

obstacles in achieving the targeted growth of sales is the

increase of the prices of food and beverage products due to

the increase of the prices of raw materials.

The production of the domestic food and beverage industry is

estimated to grow by 7.9% (YoY) in 2011. Producers are

competing in their business expansion, in the form of theincrease of production capacity in order to reach their sales

targets in 2011. Therefore, competition in the food and

beverage industry will remain tight this year.

Financial performance

of food and beverage

companies indicate a

trend of positivegrowth

In addition to the

optimism with regard

to demands, it is alsonecessary to take into

account the high costs

of raw materials due

to potential inflation

from food

commodities

Figure 16. Financial performance indicates a trend of positive growth. The profitability of

companies is estimated to increase further in 2011. Such condition is in line with the relatively

optimistic sales targets set by the players in the food and beverage industry. (Source: the

companies financial statements)

Sales

Net

Income

Net Profit

Marg in Sales

Net

Income

Net Profit

Marg in Sales

Net

Income

Net Profit

M argin Sales

Net

Income

Net Profit

Margin

Indofood 27,858.3 980.4 3.5% 38,799.3 1,034.4 2.7% 37,397.3 2,075.9 5.6% 38,403.4 2,952.9 7.7%

Mayora 2,828.4 141.6 5.0% 3,907.7 196.2 5.0% 4,777.2 372.2 7.8% 6,652.1 448.5 6.7%

Siantar Top 600.3 15.6 2.6% 624.4 4.8 0.8% 627.1 41.1 6.5%

Ultra Jaya 1,126.8 30.3 2.7% 1,362.6 303.7 22.3% 1,613.9 61.2 3.8% 1,880.4 107.1 5.7%

Aqua 1,952.2 65.9 3.4% 2,331.5 82.3 3.5% 2,733.7 95.9 3.5%

Company

2007 2008 2009 2010

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During This year we still see the increasing price of global

commodity prices, including the prices of wheat, sugar and

CPO, which are mostly consumed as raw materials by the food

and beverage industry. In addition, the prices of plastic

packaging are estimated to increase this year. Such increase in

the prices of raw materials and plastic packaging will lead to

higher price of the final food and beverage products because

most of the components of the production costs are

contributed by raw materials and packaging.

The financial performance of the players in the food and

beverage industry during the period of 2009 2010 showed

good performance. Such condition is estimated to continue

this year in line with the positive growth of the economy and

domestic demand.

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(f) 2012(f)

National Account

Real GDP (% yoy) 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.1 4.6 6.1 6.3 6.6

Domestic Demand (% yoy) 5.0 4.5 6.0 7.4 5.5 5.2 7.3 8.1

Real Consumption: Private (% yoy) 4.0 3.2 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.6 5.0 5.2Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% yoy) 10.8 2.9 9.2 11.7 3.3 8.5 13.1 14.4

GDP (USD bn) - nominal 286 364 432 512 540 717 856 1,007

GDP per capita (USD) - nominal 1,298 1,641 1,922 2,242 2,339 3,024 3,561 4,126

External Sector

Exports (%yoy,USD) - Merchandise 19.7 17.3 13.1 22.0 (15.0) 32.2 17.5 19.1

Imports (%yoy,USD) - Merchandise 24.0 6.7 21.8 40.7 (25.0) 42.0 24.0 22.7

Trade Balance (USD bn) 17.5 29.7 32.8 22.9 35.2 31.1 28.3 28.1

Current Account (% of GDP) 0.3 2.6 0.4 (0.1) 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.1

Current Account (USD bn) 0.3 10.9 10.5 0.1 10.7 6.3 4.7 0.6

External Debt (% of GDP) 47.1 36.4 32.7 30.3 32.0 27.1 25.0 23.3

International Reserves (US$ bn) 34.7 42.6 56.0 51.6 66.1 96.2 118.1 135.4

Import cover (months) 5.3 5.6 7.1 4.9 8.5 9.0 9.1 8.5IDR/USD (period average) 9,751 9,167 9,139 9,694 10,399 9,086 8,819 8,698

IDR/USD (year end) 9,830 9,020 9,400 11,120 9,400 8,963 8,762 8,663

Other

BI rate (% period average) 9.2 11.9 8.6 8.7 7.1 6.5 6.9 7.0

BI rate (% year end) 12.8 9.8 8.0 9.3 6.5 6.5 7.0 7.0

Headline Inflation (% yoy, year end) 17.1 6.6 6.6 11.1 2.8 7.0 6.8 6.5

Headline Inflation (% yoy, period average) 10.4 13.3 6.0 9.8 4.9 5.3 7.0 6.3

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (0.9) (1.1) (1.3) (0.1) (1.6) (0.6) (1.5) (1.5)

S&P's Rating - FCY B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB BB+ BBB-

S&P's Rating - LCY BB BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB

MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND FORECAST

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INDONESIA CURRENT DATA

2011

Jun Ju Aug Sep Oct Nov Des Jan Fe Mar

Exchange Rate

End of Period IDR/USD 9393 10900 9390 9061 8950 9016 8913 8936 9053 8978 9056 8818 8705Average IDR/USD 9354 1167 9462 9147 9043 8973 8969 8929 8947 9021 9041 8916 8760

Monetary SectorBase money M0, eop IDRtn 379.58 344.69 402.12 401.43 408.97 426.87 423.81 418.88 483.92 518.45 512.19 502.19 506.79Narrow money M1 IDRtn 450.06 456.79 515.82 545.41 539.75 555.50 549.53 555.53 571.35 605.38 604.17 585.92Broad Money M2 IDRtn 1,649.66 1,883.85 2,141.38 2,230.24 2,216.60 2,235.50 2,271.52 2,308.16 2,346.80 2,469.40 2,436.68 2,419.78Outstanding Loan IDRtn 995.11 1,313.87 1,446.81 1,589.66 1,605.81 1,647.42 1,669.64 1,686.46 1,717.88 1,783.60 1,763.33 1,793.99Outstanding Deposit IDRtn 1,459.44 1,673.82 1,914.11 2,006.83 1,987.51 1,993.98 2,041.15 1,951.12 2,107.82 2,208.72 2,188.75 2,173.95

Lending rate (working capital) % p.a 13.00 15.22 13.69 13.17 13.21 13.19 13.00 13.01 12.96 12.83 12.75 12.72

3-month deposit rate, eop % p.a 7.42 11.97 6.85 6.95 6.95 6.96 6.95 6.99 7.03 7.06 6.88 6.82

Overnight rate, eop % p.a 4.50 9.40 6.24 6.25 6.25 6.46 6.21 5.63 5.60 5.72 6.03 6.02 6.14

Prices

Headline CPI (2007=100) Index 155.5 113.86 117.03 119.86 121.74 122.67 123.21 123.29 124.03 125.17 126.29 126.46 126.05

Year on year inflation rate % 6.59 11.06 2.78 5.05 6.22 6.44 5.8 5.67 6.33 6.96 7.02 6.84 6.65

Month on month inflation rate % 1.1 -0.04 0.33 0.97 1.57 0.76 0.44 0.06 0.60 0.92 0.89 0.13 -0.32

Year to date inflation rate % N/A 11.06 2.78 2.42 4.02 4.82 5.28 5.35 5.98 6.96 0.89 1.03 0.70Wholesale Price Index

2000=100Index 217 238.0 167 173 174 175 176 176 177 178 180 180 180

TradeExport USDbn 10.86 8.69 13.35 12.33 12.49 13.73 12.18 14.40 15.63 16.78 14.45 14.40

Oil USDbn 2.51 1.24 2.50 1.90 1.88 1.99 2.08 2.84 2.82 3.26 2.62 2.56

Non oil USDbn 8.36 7.45 10.85 10.43 10.61 11.73 10.10 11.56 12.82 13.57 11.99 11.84

Import USDbn 6.81 6.29 10.33 11.76 12.62 12.17 9.65 12.15 13.01 13.15 12.56 12.00

Oil USDbn 2.39 0.98 2.10 2.39 2.11 2.21 2.00 2.38 2.95 2.64 2.97 2.56

Non oil USDbn 4.42 5.31 8.22 9.37 10.51 9.96 7.65 9.76 10.06 10.50 9.59 9.44

Trade Balance USDbn 4.06 2.40 3.02 0.57 -0.13 1.55 2.53 2.25 2.62 3.63 1.89 2.40

Output

GDP (current price) IDRtn 1034.86 1274.29 1450.82 1574.83 1668.35 1670.52

GDP (constant price at 2000) IDRtn 493.37 518.94 547.54 573.82 593.70 585.10

Real Growth % YoY 5.88 5.20 5.43 6.19 5.80 6.89

Capital MarketJCI Index, eop Index 2745.83 1355.41 2534.36 2913.68 3069.28 3081.88 3501.30 3635.32 3531.21 3703.51 3409.17 3470.35 3707.49

Volume, avg shares mn 3155.65 1743.25 3422.10 4542.75 4104.74 4190.05 6533.21 6240.28 6748.29 3965.38 3445.26 2559.76 2887.41

Value, avg IDRbn 4340.55 1454.61 2332.42 2847.71 2910.90 3308.05 4922.46 4830.13 5302.33 3959.30 4950.21 3431.62 3833.09

Consumer Confidence Index 99.10 90.60 108.70 111.40 105.70 104.00 107.60 112.00 108.10 109.30 113.90 106.40 107.10

Indicators Unit2010

2007 2008 2009

Disclaimer: This material is for information only, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to beconstrued as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer orsolicitation would be illegal. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do notwarrant that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinion expressed is our current opinion as ofthe date appearing on this material only, and subject to change without notice. It is intended for the use by recipient only andmay not be reproduced or copied/photocopied or duplicated or made available in any form, by any means, or redistributed toothers without written permission of PT Bank Mandiri Tbk. Additional information is available upon request. For furtherinformation please contact: Office of Chief Economist, Ph. (021) 524 5516/5272 or Facs. (021) 521 0430.

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Uprintwww.d

kuprinting.com

Oce of Chief Economist

OOvveerrsseeaass OOffffiicceess

Hongkong Branch

7th

Floor, Far East Finance Centre

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Tel: 852-2527-6611

Fax: 852-2529-8131

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Cardinal Court (2nd

Floor),

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London EIW IYY, United Kingdom

Tel: 44-207-553-8688

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Tel: (62-21) 526 5045 526 5095

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Website: www.bankmandiri.co.id

Zulkifli Zaini

President Director & CEO

Tel: (62-21) 3002 3067, Fax: (62-21) 526 3617

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Deputy President DirectorTel: (62-21) 3002 3028, Fax: (62-21) 526 3617

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Director Institutional Banking

Tel: (62-21) 3002 3839, Fax: (62-21) 252 4651

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Director Risk Management

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Thomas Arifin

Director Treasury, FI & Special Asset Management

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Director Micro & Retail Banking

Tel: (62-21) 3002 3079, Fax: (62-21) 252 1585

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Director Compliance & Human Capital

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Director Finance & Strategy

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Director Corporate Banking

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Tel: (62-21) 3002 3087, Fax: (62-21) 526 3617Kresno Sediarsi

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EVP Coordinator Change Management Office

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