Library Budget Predictions for 2014 - Publishers Communication … · 2014-03-28 · Library Budget...

Library Budget Predictions for 2014

Contents

List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 What was done ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Summary of Results.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2

Who was surveyed ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Sample Frame .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6

Overall Library Expenditure ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Overall Library Budget Broken Down................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Overall Library Budget Change for 2014 .......................................................................................................................................................... 8

Materials Expenditure ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 10 Materials Budget Change for 2014 ................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Materials Budget Change to 2017 .................................................................................................................................................................. 12

Serials Expenditure............................................................................................................................................................................................ 14 Serials Budget Change for 2014 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Reasons for Decrease in Serials Budget ........................................................................................................................................................ 18 Reasons for Increase in Serials Budget.......................................................................................................................................................... 18 Plans for Serial Additions and Cancellations .................................................................................................................................................. 18 Electronic Journals and Breakdown of Serial Subscription into Format Type ................................................................................................ 20 Expenditure on Electronic Serials ................................................................................................................................................................... 22 E-Journal Budgets .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 23

Abstracting and Indexing Services .................................................................................................................................................................. 23

Books Expenditure ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 24 Books Budget Change for 2014 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 24 New Books in 2013 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Percentage of Books Budget Spent on Electronic Books in 2013 .................................................................................................................. 26 E-Books Budget Change for 2013 .................................................................................................................................................................. 27 Proportion of front list books ........................................................................................................................................................................... 28

Major Reference Works ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Major Reference Works – Predicted Change for 2014 ................................................................................................................................... 29 Reasons Why the Number of MRWs is Likely to Change in 2014 .................................................................................................................. 29 Major Reference Works Formats Being Purchased........................................................................................................................................ 31 perpetual VS yearly access of mrws ............................................................................................................................................................... 32

Institutional Repositories .................................................................................................................................................................................. 32 How Information in Repositories is Stored ...................................................................................................................................................... 33 How Information in Repostiories is Maintained ............................................................................................................................................... 33 Growth of Institutional Repositories ................................................................................................................................................................ 34

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Budget % Change by Type of Institute................................................................................................................................ 3

Table 2: Average number of Members and Students by Type of Institute ........................................................................................ 5

Table 3: Consortia Membership ........................................................................................................................................................ 5

Table 4: Spending change on consortia deals .................................................................................................................................. 5

Table 5: Institutional Repository Ownership ..................................................................................................................................... 5

Table 6: Breakdown of sample by country and type of institute ........................................................................................................ 6

Table 8: Library Budget change for 2014 - Overall Library Budget ................................................................................................... 9

Table 9: Materials Budget change for 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 11

Table 10: Materials Budget change 2017 ....................................................................................................................................... 12

Table 11: Ave. Serial Cost for ARL Institutes Reporting in the Year of Estimation ........................................................................ 15

Table 12: Serials Budget Change for 2014 ..................................................................................................................................... 17

Table 13: Serials Additions in 2014 ................................................................................................................................................ 19

Table 14: Breakdown of serials subscriptions into format type in 2013 .......................................................................................... 21

Table 15: Percentage of Serials Expenditure on Electronic Serials (Current year) ......................................................................... 22

Table 16: Electronic resource spending in 2014 ............................................................................................................................. 23

Table 20: Abstracting & Indexing Budget Predictions for 2014 ....................................................................................................... 23

Table 22: Books Budget Change for 2014 ...................................................................................................................................... 25

Table 23: Book purchasing in 2013 compared to 2012 ................................................................................................................... 26

Table 24: Average Number of books in 2013 per institute type ...................................................................................................... 26

Table 25: Library Book Budget - % spent on electronic books ....................................................................................................... 26

Table 26: E-Books budget change .................................................................................................................................................. 27

Table 27: E-Books access models .................................................................................................................................................. 27

Table 28: MRW Budget change for 2014 ........................................................................................................................................ 30

Table 29: Purchasing patterns for MRWs by region and organization (up to current year) ............................................................ 31

Table 31: MRW access models ...................................................................................................................................................... 32

Table 32: Usage of Institutional Repositories.................................................................................................................................. 32



Table 35: Availability of repository .................................................................................................................................................. 33

Table 36: Who maintains the repository ......................................................................................................................................... 33

Table 37: Growth of Institutional Repositories ................................................................................................................................ 34

Table 38: Growth of Institutional Repositories ................................................................................................................................ 34


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

WHAT WAS DONE

A global telephone survey was carried out at 601 institutional libraries. Institutes in North America, South America, Europe and Asia Pacific Region were contacted.

Senior librarians with control over and knowledge of library budgets for 2014 were contacted.

Academic institutions were split into categories reflecting the size of their institute.

The telephone survey was carried out by two independent research agencies both of whom have specialist knowledge of the library markets.

Data gathered in a preliminary study has also been included in the study to make results as robust as possible. The preliminary data only covered indications for the four main budgetary areas.

SUMMARY OF RESULTS

Governments around the world have reacted differently to the economic situation they find their country in. Many have introduced austerity measures, while others have pursued an altogether different policy of stimulus. The plight of national economies is important as it impacts library budgets for the coming year/s.

The IMF reported in April that global economic prospects had improved1. More recent announcements from the IMF suggest that the recovery is bumpy and that global growth in 2013 would be just over 3%2, slightly down on their earlier forecasts. While growth is higher in major emerging economies, there has been a downward shift; within the euro area the recession has proven to be deeper than expected, and in the US the economy is expanding, but not as fast as expected. In contrast growth has been stronger than expected in Japan, mostly due to the depreciation of the yen.

Similarly to the economic global outlook, the prospects for library budgets in 2014 are more positive - overall library budgets are expected to grow, albeit at a low rate of 1%. The materials budget is also set to increase by 1%. In respect to the underlying serials and books budgets, we see slightly higher increases. By diverting funds from other budget lines libraries indicate they will increase their serials and books budgets by 1.5% and 2% respectively.

Although library budget forecasts this year are more positive than in previous years, many expect information price inflation to be greater than their predicted budget increases and many believe they will be pressed to maintain existing services.

When forecasting further forward, the picture looks slightly better. Forecasts show that between now and 2017 the materials budget will increase by a year on year average of 1.7%.

In geographical terms, Asia Pacific region predicts the most growth, with overall budgets set to increase by 4.2%. It seems many institutions are able to maintain or improve their holdings. In spite of the depreciation of the yen, which has reduced the purchasing power of libraries, Japanese librarians are a little more optimistic than they have been in recent years. This is likely due to the new Japanese government introducing quantitative easing and a fiscal stimulus that included a substantial investment in science3. North American and European budgets are largely static, but with a slight negative leaning. The overall budgets for these two key regions are expected to decline by 0.5% in 2014. Europe presents a slightly more mixed picture - although the overall budget is expected to decline slightly, through the management of various budget lines libraries will be able to increase their serials and books budgets. South America sees marginal increases across all four main budgetary areas, this follows decreases of between 3-4% forecast for 2013. As economic conditions continue to challenge, the allocation of budgets remains a careful balancing act. Given the optimistic forecasts for 2014, the expectation is that some budgetary pressures will ease as recovery from global recession continues.

1 Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf IMF report “World Economic Outlook 2013”

2 Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/update/02/

3 Ministry of Education: http://www.mext.go.jp/a_menu/yosan/h26/1339138.htm (please note this is in Japanese)

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf

http://www.mext.go.jp/a_menu/yosan/h26/1339138.htm


The key findings of the study are:

Table 1: Budget % Change by Type of Institute

NB: Error margin overall is ±3.3%. Arrows green or red indicate change greater than 0.5%

When reviewing the results of this survey while knowing the absolute increases is valuable, equally important are the relative differences between regions, budgets and institute types.

Overall library budgets are set to increase by 1.0% (last year a 0.8% increase was forecast).

North America and Europe each predict a decrease in the overall budget of -0.5%. Whilst this shows an improvement for Europe (last year‟s forecast was -1.4%), the position is a slight weakening for North America (last year 0.3% increase).

Asia Pacific continues to perform strongly with a 4.2% increase. This is the sixth successive year that librarians in the Asia Pacific region have predicted an increase of 2% or above.

South America expects a 1.5% budget increase in 2014, an improvement on last year‟s predicted decrease of 3.4%. It is important to note that the base size for South America is low (46) and therefore figures for South America should to be treated with caution throughout the report.

Emerging countries predict a 4.8% increase, mainly driven by the strong performance in Asia Pacific.

Just under a third (29%) of institutes expect their budget to increase, 50% to remain static, 18% to decrease. 3% were unable to say.

Materials budgets (all information content provision) are predicted to increase by 1.0% (last year saw a forecast of a 0.7% increase).

Reflecting the patterns in the overall budget predictions, North America and Europe both predict a decrease (-0.4% and -0.1% respectively) whilst Asia Pacific shows growth of 3.7%. South America‟s predicted increase of 0.6% shows the biggest improvement when compared to last year (a 3.4% decrease was forecast for 2013). Emerging countries expect to perform strongly, with an increase of 4.3% forecast for 2014.

31% of institutes predict an increase, 50% remain static, 16% predict a decrease, and 3% were unable to say. Looking ahead to the 2017 materials budget, overall, institutes expect their budget to increase by an average of 1.7%, year on year.

Serials budgets are forecast to increase by 1.5% (last year a 0.3% increase was predicted)

North America predicts its budget to remain static. Europe however, sees an improving picture for serials with a 0.3% increase (last year it was a 1.1% decrease). South America also moves to a positive forecast of a 0.3% increase following a predicted downturn in last year‟s survey. Asia Pacific continues to forecast an increase, with 4.4% expected this year (last year 2.4%). Emerging countries forecast a 3.6% rise for serials.

37% of institutions expect an increase in serials budgets. 46% believe it will remain static whilst 16% predict a decrease in spend.

A reduction in available funds was the main reason given by those who expect their serials budget to decrease.

Book expenditure is forecast to increase by 2.0% (a decrease of 0.8% was predicted last year).

North America is the only region to predict a decrease in books budget for 2014. This decrease of 1.1% shows a larger level of decline than last year (-0.1%).


Europe and South America both return to budget growth following decreases in the previous year. Europe expects an increase of 1%, South America 5.0%.

Asia continues to perform strongly with a predicted increase of 5.6%, a figure equaled by the Emerging countries group.

The majority (55%) of institutes believe their budgets will remain static. 27% predict that budget expenditure for 2013 will increase while 16% predict a decrease.

On average, 18.8% of the book budget is spent on e-books. E-book expenditure is predicted to increase by 8.3%.

The Major Reference Works (MRWs) budget for 2014 is set to decrease by 1.7% (last year a 2.9% decrease was forecast). North America and Europe predict a decrease in MRW expenditure, with North America hardest hit (-4.6%)

E-Journal services 97% of institutes take an e-journal service. E-only journals represent 62% of journal subscriptions, rising 3% from last year. Institutes still take a reasonable portion of their subscriptions in print only form (22%), while the remainder (16%) is part of a combined print and electronic package.

A&I Services are provided by 88% of institutes. Budgets here are expected to rise by 1.4%, however 70% of institutions believe their budget will remain static.

Institutional Repositories – These are fairly widespread with just over half (55%) of institutes either owning or sharing ownership. This figure rises to 90% for top academic institutes. Research articles continue to be the most commonly stored information type, with 80% of repositories holding them. The percentage of academic institutes mandating deposit of research articles is down to 14% (last year was 23%). Just over half (53%) of institutes make their repository available to everyone. In terms of content expansion, 46% felt that the repository was growing fast or very fast.

Europe

2014 (change)

Overall -0.5%

Materials -0.1%

Serials 0.3%

Books 1.0% North America

2014 (change)

Overall -0.5%

Materials -0.4%

Serials 0.0%

Books -1.1%

South America

2014 (change)

Overall 1.5%

Materials 0.6%

Serials 0.3%

Books 5.0%

Asia Pacific

2014 (change)

Overall 4.2%

Materials 3.7%

Serials 4.4%

Books 5.6%


WHO WAS SURVEYED

Altogether 601 institutes were surveyed across a range of countries and institute types

The error margin is 3.3%± confidence interval at 90% confidence levels; however it must be borne in mind that the estimates made by some are indications, rather than the known amount.

Librarians were asked about their budgets and expenditures generally.

Librarians surveyed last year were approached again this year to take part in the survey.

Institutions were chosen from North America (USA, Canada), South America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela), Europe (20 countries) and Asia Pacific (9 countries). Since 2009, we have tracked, „emerging countries‟, which cuts across geography (see next section for countries included in this group).

Librarians were asked to quantify the number of members for the library. The average results by region and institute type are in the table opposite.

Consortia Membership

The majority of those surveyed are consortia members, with

the proportion highest among academic institutes (95%).

Of those in a consortium, most (59%) believe spending on

consortia will stay the same over the next two years.

Table 3: Consortia Membership

Institute Type Yes No

Academic Top 97% 3%

Academic Middle 97% 3%

Academic Lower 92% 8%

Medical/Health 75% 25%

Government 66% 34%

Corporate 29% 71%

Total 80% 20%

Institutional Repositories (for more detail please see the final section) Librarians were asked if their institute had their own

institutional repository. Overall, more than half (55%) have an institutional repository, with academic institutes being most likely to

have a repository (72%).

Table 5: Institutional Repository Ownership

Institute Type Yes No

Academic Top 90% 10%




Government 48% 52%

Corporate 31% 69%

Total 55% 45%

Table 2: Average number of Members and Students by Type of Institute

Region Level Members/Users

North America

Academic top 23,616

Academic middle 15,023

Academic lower 3,780

Medical/Health 3,719

Government 4,392

Corporate 11,019

Europe

Academic top 30,371




Government 2,513

Corporate 4,282

Asia Pacific

Academic top 32,906




Government 1,718

Corporate 5,846

South America

Academic top 31,964




Government 10,571

Corporate 5,767

Table 4: Spending change on consortia deals

Institute Type Increase Decrease Stay the

same

Academic Top 34% 5% 60%

Academic Middle 39% 4% 56%

Academic Lower 47% 5% 49%

Medical/Health 43% 4% 52%

Government 17% 10% 74%

Corporate 27% 2% 71%

Total 36% 5% 59%


SAMPLE FRAME

The sample frame was constructed into several organisation types: Academic, Corporate, Government, and Medical - the Academic sector was further split into three groups based upon size of the institute. The breakdown by country and type is in the table below. Emerging countries are a grouping introduced in 2009 and are a subset of countries that cross the below geographical categories and includes: India, China, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela.

Table 6: Breakdown of sample by country and type of institute

Region Country

Academic

Corp. Gov't Medical

% of

overall sample top middle lower Total

Asia Pacific

Australia 2 2 2 1 1 2 10 2%

29%

China 9 9 8 6 6 8 46 7%

Hong Kong 0 0 2 0 0 2 4 1%

India 4 4 4 2 2 3 19 3%

Japan 13 13 13 9 7 12 67 11%

South Korea 3 3 2 2 1 3 14 2%

Malaysia 2 2 2 0 0 0 6 1%

New Zealand 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0%

Taiwan 2 2 2 2 2 2 12 2%

Europe

Austria 1 1 1 1 0 2 6 1%

33%

Belgium 2 1 1 1 1 1 7 1%

Czech Republic 0 2 1 2 1 2 8 1%

Denmark 1 1 1 1 1 2 7 1%

Finland 2 0 2 0 0 2 6 1%

France 4 4 4 3 3 3 21 3%

Germany 6 6 5 3 3 4 27 4%

Hungary 2 0 2 2 0 0 6 1%

Ireland 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 0%

Israel 2 0 2 0 0 2 6 1%

Italy 3 4 3 2 2 3 17 3%

The Netherlands 1 1 1 1 1 2 7 1%

Poland 2 2 2 1 1 1 9 1%

Portugal 0 3 1 0 0 1 5 1%

Romania 1 2 1 1 1 1 7 1%

Russia 2 2 2 1 1 2 10 2%

Spain 3 3 3 2 1 2 14 2%

Sweden 2 0 1 1 1 2 7 1%

Switzerland 1 1 1 1 1 2 7 1%

UK 5 5 5 3 3 5 26 4%

North America Canada 3 3 3 3 3 3 18 3%

31% USA 33 33 33 23 18 32 172 28%

South America

Argentina 2 1 1 2 2 0 8 1%

6%

Brazil 3 3 2 2 2 3 15 2%

Chile 0 1 1 0 0 2 4 1%

Colombia 0 1 1 0 0 2 4 1%

Mexico 1 1 1 0 0 1 4 1%

Venezuela 1 1 1 0 0 1 4 1%

Overall % 19% 19% 19% 13% 11% 19% 601


OVERALL LIBRARY EXPENDITURE

OVERALL LIBRARY BUDGET BROKEN DOWN

The overall library budget includes the ongoing costs of maintaining a library, salary, materials and operating expenditure.

By examining the Association of Research Libraries (ARL) expenditure we can get an idea of how library budgets breakdown.

The ARL statistics include details of collections, expenditures, staffing, and service activities for its member libraries and the majority of the libraries are large North American academic institutes.

The latest data that we have from the ARL is from 2011. The 126 members of the ARL reported a combined expenditure of $4.6 billion. This expenditure broke down into four areas: salaries (45%), materials (43%), binding (0.4%) and other operating expenditures (12%) made up the remainder of the budget.

The materials budget further broke down into serials expenditure (68%), books expenditure (20%) with the remaining being allocated to miscellaneous expenditure or other materials. (NB this split is based upon 91 institutes reporting on all elements of the budget)

Figure 1


OVERALL LIBRARY BUDGET CHANGE FOR 2014

% Change: The overall library budget shows a slight increase on last year‟s prediction. This is the third successive year that an increase in budget has been predicted after decreases were forecast for 2010 and 2011. Overall, a 1.0% increase is predicted for 2014.

o Region: North America shows a predicted decrease of 0.5%, Last year, an increase of 0.3% had been forecast and had seemed to end a run of decreases. In Europe the situation improves slightly: whilst librarians still anticipate a reduction in budget, it is to a lesser amount this year (-0.5% compared to -1.4% last year). South America returns to a more positive outlook with a 1.5% increase following last year‟s downturn of -3.4% Asia Pacific performs strongly with a predicted increase of 4.2%, just slightly below last year‟s anticipated 4.9% increase. The emerging countries forecast the highest increase of 4.8%.

o Type of institute: Academic markets expect a 1.4% increase overall, European academics are the only academic group to predict a decrease and this is minimal (-0.1%). North and South America predict a slight increase of 0.2% and 1.0% respectively. Asia Pacific shows strong performance with a 4.3% increase as do academic institutes in the emerging countries (5.1%).

Qualitative predictions: suggest that half of institutions (50%) believe their budget will remain static. The proportion of institutions predicting increases drops 5% to 29%. The proportion of those predicting decreases drops to 18% (last year was 23%). The highest proportion of decrease occurs for the Governmental markets (27%). This is the only market to forecast a drop in the overall budget.

Figure 2 Figure 3

Figure 4


Table 7: Library Budget change for 2014 - Overall Library Budget

Qualitative Predictions Quantitative Predictions

% respondents predicting

Region Organisation Increase Static Decrease % Budget Change

North America

Academic Top 40% 40% 18% 0.2

Academic Middle 35% 29% 27% -0.2

Academic Lower 22% 57% 16% 0.5

All Academic 33% 42% 20% 0.2

Medical/Health 27% 44% 27% -1.6

Government 18% 32% 50% -4.9

Corporate 33% 64% 3% 1.4

Overall 30% 44% 23% -0.5

Europe

Academic Top 20% 65% 12% 0.1



All Academic 24% 57% 15% -0.1


Government 17% 60% 20% 0.9

Corporate 26% 56% 15% 0.1

Overall 20% 60% 16% -0.5

Asia Pacific

Academic Top 40% 40% 16% 3.9

Academic Middle 43% 41% 15% 2.7


All Academic 45% 38% 16% 4.3

Medical/Health 41% 50% 5% 4.9

Government 32% 50% 14% 3.7

Corporate 31% 53% 13% 3.2

Overall 41% 44% 13% 4.2

South America

Academic Top 30% 50% 20% 1.7



All Academic 29% 50% 21% 1.0


Government 0% 67% 33% -1.7

Corporate 50% 50% 0% 7.1

Overall 29% 53% 18% 1.5

Emerging Countries

Academic Top 44% 41% 12% 4.7



All Academic 45% 45% 10% 5.1


Government 32% 45% 18% 2.2

Corporate 50% 42% 8% 6.4

Overall 43% 44% 10% 4.8

Overall

Academic Top 32% 49% 16% 1.3



All Academic 33% 46% 18% 1.4


Government 20% 49% 27% -0.2

Corporate 31% 57% 10% 1.8

Overall 29% 50% 18% 1.0


MATERIALS EXPENDITURE

MATERIALS BUDGET CHANGE FOR 2014

The material budget covers all the costs a library incurs when purchasing content for the library, including journal subscriptions, book costs, inter-library loans etc.

% Change: Overall material budgets are set to increase in 2014 by 1.0% (last year was a 0.7% increase). o Region: North America predicts a 0.4% decrease, down on last year‟s forecasted increase of 0.1%. Europe,

although still predicting a decrease (-0.1%), sees a slight improvement from last year (-0.9%). South America expects an increase of 1.0%, a reasonable upturn from last year‟s -3.4%. The Emerging countries grouping perform strongly with a predicted 4.3% increase. Asia Pacific region is forecasting an increase of 3.7%. Slightly less than the 4.5% forecast last year.

o Type of institute: Academic libraries show an improvement with a 1.4% mean increase (last year was a 0.5% increase). As with overall budgets, Asia Pacific and Emerging countries are healthiest, with predicted increases of 4.1% and 4.0% respectively. In tandem with their overall budget, Government institutes are the only institute type to forecast negative growth (-1.1%). Academic Lower institutes expect the greatest increase (2.1%) which is in contrast to the previous year where a decrease of 0.1% was predicted.

Qualitative predictions: suggest that 31% of institutes will see an increase in their budget (3 points down on last year) with half (50%) believing their budget will remain static. The number of institutes forecasting a drop in budget for 2014 is 16%. o Region: Europe has the lowest proportion of institutes predicting an increase (22%). However, the proportion of

institutes expecting a decrease is on a par with the average (17%). In contrast, North America has the largest proportion predicting decreases, at 21%.

o Emerging countries form the most optimistic group, with 47% predicting an increase (a 2% rise on last year). Asia Pacific performs best of the geographical regions with an increase of 41%,

o Type of institute: Unsurprisingly, since Governmental institutes are the only market to predict a decrease in the quantitative predictions, they have the highest proportion of predicted decreases in the qualitative measures also (29%). Academic Top institutes have the highest proportion of increases (37%)

Reasons for change: In terms of reasons why budgets are decreasing, institutes report that it is mostly due to reduction in funding. As for budget increases, most common reasons include the inflation of prices for materials, and the acquisition of new subscriptions.

Figure 5 Figure 6

Figure 7


Table 8: Materials Budget change for 2014




North America

Academic Top 46% 38% 15% 0.9



All Academic 39% 42% 16% 0.8


Government 18% 29% 50% -5.2

Corporate 23% 57% 9% 0.3

Overall 32% 44% 21% -0.4

Europe

Academic Top 24% 59% 18% -0.3



All Academic 24% 58% 17% 0.0


Government 17% 53% 20% -0.1

Corporate 34% 43% 14% 1.6

Overall 22% 58% 17% -0.1

Asia Pacific

Academic Top 42% 47% 11% 3.7



All Academic 44% 42% 13% 4.1


Government 36% 46% 18% 2.1

Corporate 38% 50% 9% 3.0

Overall 41% 46% 11% 3.7

South America

Academic Top 40% 40% 20% -0.6



All Academic 31% 45% 24% -0.4


Government 0% 67% 33% -1.7

Corporate 40% 60% 0% 5.9

Overall 27% 54% 19% 0.6

Emerging Countries

Academic Top 53% 26% 21% 3.0



All Academic 47% 40% 12% 4.0


Government 32% 50% 18% 2.2

Corporate 65% 31% 4% 7.0

Overall 47% 42% 10% 4.3

Overall

Academic Top 37% 47% 15% 1.2



All Academic 35% 48% 16% 1.4


Government 22% 45% 29% -1.1

Corporate 32% 51% 9% 1.8

Overall 31% 50% 16% 1.0


MATERIALS BUDGET CHANGE TO 2017

Respondents were asked to think ahead to 2017, in order to predict whether their budget was likely to increase, remain static or decrease year on year or vary (i.e. increase one year, but decrease the following year) and by how much the materials budget would change year on year. It is important to note that this question was difficult to answer for many librarians and while figures have been quoted they are likely to be indicative.

All regions expect to see an increase across the four year period, with the overall average yearly change to be 1.7% Emerging countries predict the largest year on year increase of 5.9%.

Table 9: Materials Budget change 2017



Region Organisation Increase Same Decrease Vary % Budget Change

North America

Academic Top 44% 39% 11% 0% 0.6

Academic Middle 38% 44% 15% 3% 1.4

Academic Lower 44% 36% 11% 3% 1.8

All Academic 42% 40% 12% 2% 1.3

Medical/Health 37% 43% 14% 3% 0.6

Government 29% 29% 33% 5% -1.6

Corporate 45% 45% 9% 0% 0.7

Overall 40% 40% 15% 2% 0.8

Europe

Academic Top 26% 55% 5% 8% 2.3


Academic Lower 23% 56% 3% 18% 2.0

All Academic 23% 53% 4% 18% 1.6

Medical/Health 9% 71% 14% 0% -0.3

Government 15% 50% 20% 5% 0.0

Corporate 32% 41% 9% 14% 1.6

Overall 20% 54% 8% 13% 1.1

Asia Pacific

Academic Top 34% 34% 17% 6% 2.0


Academic Lower 39% 39% 11% 8% 3.4

All Academic 40% 32% 16% 6% 3.3

Medical/Health 41% 34% 0% 9% 6.1

Government 26% 53% 16% 0% 2.4

Corporate 30% 43% 17% 4% 1.6

Overall 37% 36% 13% 5% 3.4

South America

Academic Top 25% 38% 0% 13% 3.5


Academic Lower 25% 25% 25% 13% -0.8

All Academic 30% 30% 9% 17% 2.5

Medical/Health 22% 56% 0% 22% 3.0

Government 0% 100% 0% 0% 0.0

Corporate 50% 25% 0% 0% 6.0

Overall 28% 43% 5% 15% 2.7

Emerging Countries

Academic Top 56% 22% 0% 11% 6.8


Academic Lower 52% 24% 8% 12% 6.4

All Academic 54% 23% 5% 11% 6.3

Medical/Health 33% 46% 0% 13% 4.2

Government 44% 50% 0% 0% 4.7

Corporate 50% 39% 0% 6% 6.9

Overall 49% 32% 3% 9% 5.9

Overall

Academic Top 35% 43% 10% 4% 1.7


Academic Lower 35% 43% 10% 9% 2.2

All Academic 35% 41% 11% 8% 2.0

Medical/Health 28% 51% 9% 5% 1.8

Government 23% 46% 21% 3% 0.2

Corporate 38% 41% 11% 6% 1.5

Overall 33% 43% 12% 7% 1.7


As this question required respondents to think 4 years ahead, we wanted to have an idea of the certainty of the answer. Respondents were asked how confident they were of their prediction.

Figure 8

Taking into account only the predictions of those who were confident or somewhat confident of the accuracy of their predictions, the overall percentage change increases to 1.8% (n=482).

Figure 9


SERIALS EXPENDITURE

PLEASE NOTE THIS SECTION HAS NOT BEEN UPDATED - ARL DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR 2012.

In this section we track several measures drawn from two sources: Library Journal periodical survey4 for the average serial cost and the Association of Research Libraries (ARL) statistical data for serial expenditure and amounts of serials purchased among North American institutes5.

The ARL in North America annually tracks library expenditure and includes amongst its members some of the largest universities in the USA and Canada. 113 university libraries contributed data to the ARL statistics for 2011.

In reference to figure 18 below, until 2002, broadly annual changes in serial expenditure reflect annual changes in average serial costs as tracked in the Library Journal. Although serials expenditure change appears to follow serials cost change, they do so at a lower level. After 2002 the changes are no longer in tandem.

This disconnect is likely due to the impact of a number of factors. It should be borne in mind that the average serial prices produced by the Library Journal are based on catalogue prices. In recent years serials agents and publishers have introduced more and more individualized deals. Consequently the list price of journals rarely reflects the actual cost paid. Since 1997, there have been increases year-on-year in the number of subscriptions taken. The year-on-year increases are likely to be explained by the addition of electronic versions, at modest additional costs, via individualized deals and/or libraries accommodating the purchase of new and cheaper subscriptions through cancellation of a few expensive titles.

The ARL average serial costs, instead of the Library Journal average serial costs are perhaps more indicative of the true costs incurred by institutes (it is derived by dividing the number of serials purchased by serial expenditure). These figures suggest that the cost paid by institutions per serial has broadly been falling since 2001. In fact the average serial cost in 2011 at $139.18 is only slightly higher than the 1990 cost of $138.24 (see table 13).

Figure 10 NB. From 2007 the ARL has changed its method for tracking serials purchased, no longer reporting institutes count the number of subscriptions, but instead unique titles, thus an institute that previously took 3 copies of „Nature‟ would now be counted as taking 1, this is likely to explain the subsequent decline in the number of serials purchased.

4 http://www.libraryjournal.com/info/CA6435067.html?q=periodical+survey

5 http://interactive.arlstatistics.org/home


Table 10: Ave. Serial Cost for ARL Institutes Reporting in the Year of Estimation

Year

No of

Institutes

reporting

Ser Unit Cost:

US$ Mean % Change

1990 68 138.24 8.3%

1991 76 151.00 9.2%

1992 76 166.16 10.0%

1993 77 185.77 11.8%

1994 81 194.20 4.5%

1995 81 210.71 8.5%

1996 81 231.17 9.7%

1997 81 248.67 7.6%

1998 80 252.82 1.7%

1999 82 261.41 3.4%

2000 83 276.81 5.9%

2001 82 267.13 -3.5%

2002 86 266.82 -0.1%

2003 84 266.87 0.0%

2004 89 270.70 1.4%

2005 88 247.55 -8.6%

2006 89 241.60 -2.4%

2007 101 201.26 -16.7%

2008 107 178.17 -11.5%

2009 108 161.95 -9.1%

2010 112 150.78 -6.9%

2011 113 139.18 -7.7%

NB: ARL institutes reported in table above and in Figure 18 are only those institutes that are universities and have reported values for the number of serials purchased and serial expenditure in a given year.


SERIALS BUDGET CHANGE FOR 2014

% Change: The serials budget in 2014 is set to increase by 1.5%. This is the largest predicted increase since the 2.0% increase predicted for 2009.

o Region: North America expects their position to remain static after a 0.7% rise in last year‟s study. The situation in Europe shows signs of improvement with a 0.3% increase expected this year following last year‟s 1.1% decrease. Asia Pacific predicts an increase of 4.4% (last year was 2.4%), while South America returns to a positive forecast of a 0.3% increase (last year: -3.3%)

o Type of institute: Academic institutional budgets are predicted to increase overall by 1.7% (last year: 0.6% increase). South America academic institutes expect a decline of 2.7%. It is the predictions of the non-academic markets that raise the overall South American prediction to an increase. The Corporate market is the strongest with a predicted 8.7% increase.

Qualitative predictions: suggest that 37% of institutes forecast an increase in their serials budget for 2014 – 3 points down on last year. 16% predict a decrease.

Figure 11 Figure 12

Figure 13


Table 11: Serials Budget Change for 2014

Qualitative Predictions Quantitative Predictions % respondents predicting


North America

Academic Top 63% 24% 10% 2.7



All Academic 49% 36% 14% 1.7


Government 14% 36% 50% -5.3

Corporate 24% 59% 15% -0.1

Overall 39% 40% 20% 0.0

Europe

Academic Top 37% 52% 10% 0.6


Academic Lower 25% 52% 21% -0.8

All Academic 32% 49% 17% 0.3


Government 23% 57% 20% 1.9

Corporate 39% 47% 8% 0.9

Overall 29% 54% 16% 0.3

Asia Pacific

Academic Top 51% 31% 18% 3.2



All Academic 49% 38% 13% 4.3


Government 39% 54% 7% 5.8

Corporate 34% 53% 13% 2.5

Overall 46% 43% 11% 4.4

South America

Academic Top 30% 50% 20% -1.8



All Academic 24% 38% 31% -2.7



Corporate 40% 60% 0% 8.7

Overall 29% 46% 21% 0.3

Emerging Countries

Academic Top 41% 50% 9% 2.1



All Academic 38% 46% 14% 2.2



Corporate 63% 33% 4% 6.2

Overall 43% 45% 10% 3.6

Overall

Academic Top 49% 37% 12% 1.9



All Academic 42% 41% 16% 1.7


Government 25% 51% 24% 0.9

Corporate 33% 53% 11% 1.5

Overall 37% 46% 16% 1.5


REASONS FOR DECREASE IN SERIALS BUDGET

Librarians were asked why they believed their budgets had changed.

Altogether 91 librarians gave reasons as to why they thought it had decreased. Reduction in available funds stays as the top reason (53%). 24% ascribe the decrease to consequence of the shift from print to electronic. This year 15% indicate that it is due to cancellation of unneeded serials.

REASONS FOR INCREASE IN SERIALS BUDGET

237 librarians were able to specify why their budget had increased. The most often stated reason (48%) was due to price inflation (42%), followed by price increase and new subscriptions

PLANS FOR SERIAL ADDITIONS AND CANCELLATIONS

Many libraries manage their budgets by cancelling and subscribing to different journals in order to minimize costs. It is quite feasible for an institute to see a decrease in their serials budget, but an increase in the number of journals purchased (through the acquisition of more inexpensive titles). Change is often based upon usage data, a desire to streamline particular subjects, or simply cancelling the most expensive titles.

The percentage of institutes cancelling (39%) is higher than those adding (29%). However, the average number of serials added (12.7) is higher than those cancelled (11). 28% of respondents were unable to say if, or how many, journals would be added.

The Emerging countries grouping shows the highest amount of additions (21). South America remains most stable in terms of its serials holdings with a prediction of 2.9 additions and 0.5 cancellations.

Just under a half (48%) of North American academic institutes predict that they will cancel some journals in 2014, the highest proportion across the sectors reported.

Those cancelling titles were asked to give the reason(s) behind the cancellation decisions. 62% stated that cancellations were made on journals that were no longer relevant or had low usage statistics. 35% indicated a lack of funds, whilst 31% mentioned the price of the journal (n.b. respondents were able to choose more than one reason for cancellation)


Table 12: Serials Additions in 2014

Serials Cancellations in 2014




Region Organisation Increase No

Additions Unable to say

Ave no. of Additions

Cancels No

Cancels Unable to

say Ave no. of Cancels

North America

Academic Top 36% 39% 25% 18.3

39% 61% 0% 25.4


47% 53% 0% 25.0


58% 42% 0% 13.0

All Academic 42% 41% 18% 21.1

48% 52% 0% 21.1


40% 60% 0% 7.7


43% 52% 5% 5.3

Corporate 26% 56% 19% 7.4

35% 65% 0% 6.4

Overall 37% 48% 15% 14.0

44% 55% 1% 14.9

Europe

Academic Top 34% 26% 39% 20.5

42% 58% 0% 18.7


43% 57% 0% 4.6


39% 61% 0% 3.0

All Academic 27% 35% 38% 10.2

42% 58% 0% 8.7


43% 57% 0% 5.9

Government 19% 38% 43% 9.3

38% 62% 0% 5.0

Corporate 24% 40% 36% 18.1

23% 77% 0% 2.8

Overall 28% 37% 35% 10.1

39% 61% 0% 7.0

Asia Pacific

Academic Top 11% 34% 54% 10.7

40% 51% 9% 23.1


43% 51% 5% 22.9


35% 57% 8% 9.8

All Academic 26% 39% 35% 25.2

39% 53% 7% 18.6


50% 50% 0% 6.5

Government 11% 58% 32% 1.8

47% 53% 0% 4.1

Corporate 9% 70% 22% 0.3

32% 68% 0% 6.9

Overall 23% 43% 34% 15.6

41% 54% 4% 13.4

South America

Academic Top 14% 43% 43% 3.8

0% 100% 0% 0.0


13% 88% 0% 1.4


0% 100% 0% 0.0

All Academic 19% 43% 38% 3.9

5% 95% 0% 0.5


25% 75% 0% 1.2


0% 100% 0% 0.0

Corporate 50% 25% 25% 1.2

0% 100% 0% 0.0

Overall 22% 46% 32% 2.9

8% 92% 0% 0.5

Emerging Countries

Academic Top 26% 22% 52% 23.5

21% 79% 0% 9.0


26% 70% 4% 16.5


19% 81% 0% 6.0

All Academic 31% 37% 32% 32.7

22% 77% 1% 10.4


25% 75% 0% 6.1

Government 13% 47% 40% 11.3

27% 73% 0% 4.0

Corporate 32% 47% 21% 2.2

16% 84% 0% 7.0

Overall 26% 39% 34% 21.5

22% 77% 1% 8.5

Overall

Academic Top 27% 34% 40% 16.4

37% 59% 3% 20.9


42% 55% 2% 16.2


42% 55% 3% 7.9

All Academic 30% 38% 30% 18.2

40% 57% 2% 15.0


42% 57% 0% 6.3

Government 20% 51% 28% 3.4

40% 57% 2% 4.5

Corporate 22% 53% 24% 8.0

28% 71% 0% 5.0

Overall 29% 42% 28% 12.7

39% 58% 1% 11.0


ELECTRONIC JOURNALS AND BREAKDOWN OF SERIAL SUBSCRIPTION INTO FORMAT TYPE

Librarians were asked if they took an e-journal service and if they did what proportion of their subscriptions were received in electronic form.

97% of institutes surveyed currently use e-journal service providers.

The proportion of journals taken in e-only format has gone up 3 points to 62% while the subscription in combined format dropped 3 points to 16%. Just over a fifth of subscriptions are taken in the print only format (22%).

North America has both the highest proportion of e-only subscriptions (76%) and the lowest proportion of print only format (15%) and combined (10%).

South America has the lowest take up of e-only subscriptions (44%), although this has increased by 11% on last year, They are also the region most likely to take a combined subscription (28%).

Academic institutes are more likely to take e-only subscriptions (64%) than other types, and the take-up for Academic Top and Middle reached 65% in 2013.

Only North and South America have 100% take up on provision of electronic journal services.


Table 13: Breakdown of serials subscriptions into format type in 2013

% of journals received in

different formats % of institutes using

electronic journal services Region Organisation e-only Comb Print

North America

Academic Top 76% 9% 15% 100%

Academic Middle 75% 10% 15% 100%

Academic Lower 81% 9% 9% 100%

All Academic 78% 10% 13% 100%

Medical/Health 71% 12% 17% 100%

Government 71% 8% 21% 100%

Corporate 78% 9% 14% 100%

Overall 76% 10% 15% 100%

Europe

Academic Top 61% 14% 25% 100%



All Academic 56% 19% 25% 100%


Government 40% 24% 37% 95%

Corporate 51% 19% 30% 96%

Overall 54% 19% 27% 97%

Asia Pacific

Academic Top 62% 16% 22% 94%



All Academic 63% 14% 22% 96%


Government 42% 30% 27% 79%

Corporate 53% 17% 30% 95%

Overall 60% 16% 24% 93%

South America

Academic Top 41% 23% 36% 100%



All Academic 44% 28% 28% 100%


Government 33% 30% 37% 100%

Corporate 57% 30% 13% 100%

Overall 44% 28% 28% 100%

Emerging Countries

Academic Top 55% 19% 26% 93%



All Academic 56% 20% 24% 96%


Government 28% 32% 40% 94%

Corporate 48% 29% 23% 89%

Overall 51% 23% 25% 93%

Overall

Academic Top 65% 14% 21% 98%



All Academic 64% 15% 21% 99%


Government 51% 20% 29% 92%

Corporate 61% 15% 23% 97%

Overall 62% 16% 22% 97%


EXPENDITURE ON ELECTRONIC SERIALS

Within the serials budget the proportion spent on electronic information source has increased to 64%. All regions have seen an increase in the proportion of electronic serials expenditure since 2012. North American institutes have the highest proportion of electronic serials, which is commensurate with their 100% take up of electronic journal services.

Table 14: Percentage of Serials Expenditure on Electronic Serials (Current year)

Region Organisation 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

North America

Academic Top 23 42 48 69 65 80 81 81

Academic Middle 25 39 48 63 64 75 78 76

Academic Lower 14 21 32 55 62 65 68 79

All Academic 21 35 44 62 64 73 75 79

Medical/Health 32 34 31 40 57 64 55 73

Government 40 50 45 54 60 64 58 77

Corporate 39 40 27 48 69 75 73 80

Overall 26 37 40 55 63 71 69 78

Europe

Academic Top 31 40 45 52 52 57 56 65

Academic Middle 35 42 42 49 43 54 49 56

Academic Lower 36 33 44 51 50 55 54 54

All Academic 34 38 44 51 48 56 53 58

Medical/Health 38 38 42 38 44 53 47 63

Government 38 44 38 55 54 47 39 49

Corporate 43 38 41 36 45 58 43 59

Overall 36 39 42 47 48 55 49 58

Asia Pacific

Academic Top 24 38 35 40 61 56 64 67

Academic Middle 33 49 40 45 48 54 47 62

Academic Lower 26 41 35 39 41 47 50 54

All Academic 27 43 37 42 49 52 54 61

Medical/Health 9 34 29 33 52 42 55 70

Government 31 31 44 35 43 46 42 45

Corporate 18 37 39 40 47 54 52 55

Overall 25 41 37 40 49 50 53 60

South America

Academic Top n/a n/a 38 41 41 42 43 44

Academic Middle n/a n/a 41 41 39 42 41 41

Academic Lower n/a n/a 21 23 23 26 28 47

All Academic n/a n/a 34 34 34 37 37 44

Medical/Health n/a n/a 50 27 27 30 31 34

Government n/a n/a 15 15 15 21 35 46

Corporate n/a n/a 15 15 15 21 33 60

Overall n/a n/a 32 31 31 34 36 43

Emerging Countries

Academic Top n/a n/a 27 34 45 45 49 58

Academic Middle n/a n/a 31 39 35 44 40 53

Academic Lower n/a n/a 34 31 37 35 30 48

All Academic n/a n/a 31 35 39 41 40 53

Medical/Health n/a n/a 38 31 31 30 37 58

Government n/a n/a 17 38 29 31 22 42

Corporate n/a n/a 29 30 41 43 31 51

Overall n/a n/a 29 34 38 39 37 53

Overall

Academic Top 26 41 44 52 58 63 64 70

Academic Middle 30 43 43 49 50 59 55 63

Academic Lower 24 33 36 45 48 53 54 61

All Academic 27 39 41 48 52 58 58 65

Medical/Health 30 36 36 36 49 53 50 66

Government 37 43 41 48 52 52 45 57

Corporate 35 39 34 39 53 61 54 65

Overall 29 39 40 45 52 57 55 64


E-JOURNAL BUDGETS

52% of institutions expect their spending on electronic resources to increase in 2014. Overall, spending on electronic resources is set to rise by 4.1%.

Almost two thirds (63%) of North American institutes expect an increase in electronic resource funding.

Table 15: Electronic resource spending in 2014

Qualitative predictions Quantitative predictions

Region Increase Remain the

same Decrease % change

North America 63% 6% 29% 3.9%

Europe 35% 5% 57% 2.1%

Asia 62% 6% 29% 7.1%

South America 40% 3% 57% 1.6%

Emerging Countries 55% 2% 41% 6.4%

Total 52% 6% 40% 4.1%

ABSTRACTING AND INDEXING SERVICES

The majority of institutes (88%) provide electronic access to abstracting and indexing (A&I) services.

% Budget Change: 70% of institutions believe that their A&I budget will remain static in 2014, whilst 19% expect an increase. An average increase in spending of 1.4% is expected.

Number of A&I Services Taken: Of the institutes that provide access to A&I databases, the majority (82%) take two or more A&I services. 51% took four or more.

Table 16: Abstracting & Indexing Budget Predictions for 2014

Forecast % Mean % n

Increase 18.8 9.7 113

Same 70.5 0.0 422

Decrease 5.1 -10.3 30

Don't Know 5.6 - 34

Total 100.0 1.4 599

Figure 14


BOOKS EXPENDITURE

BOOKS BUDGET CHANGE FOR 2014

Books budgets, which includes electronic books, are predicted to increase by 2.0% in 2014 (last year was 0.8%). o Regions: North America is the only region to predict a decrease (-1.1%), a slight worsening of position compared to last

year (-0.4%). Europe sees an improvement on last year (a 1% increase compared to a 0.6% decrease). o Those in Asia Pacific continue to be more optimistic and predict an increase of 5.6%, higher than the 4.8% increase

forecast in 2013. The Government sector performs strongly with a 23.7% increase predicted. This however, is influenced by a 500% increase for one institution which is launching a new branch. One Academic Middle institute also predicts an unusually high increase of 200%.

o South America returns to a positive outlook, with a 5.0% increase forecast (last year was a 3.6% decrease). o Emerging countries predict a 5.6% increase, a decrease on last year‟s 6.5% increase. o Overall, all types of institutes with the exception of Medical predict an increase for the books budget.

Qualitative forecasts indicate that the majority (55%) of institutes believe their budgets will remain static. 27% of institutes predict that their budget expenditure for 2014 will increase, 11 points higher than those predicting a decrease.

Figure 15 Figure 16

Figure 17


Table 17: Books Budget Change for 2014



North America

Academic Top 27% 42% 27% -1.0



All Academic 29% 43% 26% -0.4


Government 10% 66% 24% -4.2

Corporate 18% 71% 12% -0.5

Overall 25% 50% 24% -1.1

Europe

Academic Top 23% 65% 10% 1.0



All Academic 25% 59% 13% 1.1



Corporate 31% 56% 11% 2.7

Overall 22% 65% 11% 1.0

Asia Pacific

Academic Top 36% 40% 24% 2.4



All Academic 38% 42% 20% 3.9


Government 38% 45% 10% 23.7

Corporate 18% 73% 9% 3.3

Overall 33% 50% 16% 5.6

South America

Academic Top 40% 40% 20% -0.7



All Academic 50% 36% 11% 5.7



Corporate 50% 50% 0% 9.5

Overall 42% 50% 6% 5.0

Emerging Countries




All Academic 51% 42% 7% 6.3



Corporate 44% 56% 0% 5.9

Overall 45% 49% 5% 5.6

Overall

Academic Top 29% 49% 20% 0.7



All Academic 31% 48% 19% 1.8


Government 23% 64% 11% 6.8

Corporate 24% 65% 10% 2.2

Overall 27% 55% 16% 2.0


NEW BOOKS IN 2013

Librarians indicated whether or not the number of books purchased this year represented a decrease or increase when compared to the previous year.

Librarians estimate that the number of books purchased this year is on a par with 2012 (0.7% change). We also asked librarians how many books they purchased this year. The average amount of books is 13,951. The high

figure for Government is driven by 4 Asian institutes stating purchases in excess of 100,000 books in 2013.

Table 18: Book purchasing in 2013 compared to 2012

Movement of books 13 against 12 Count % Mean %

Min % change

Max % change

Increase 142 24% 13.1 0.2 200

Same 307 51% 0.0 0 0

Decrease 108 18% -13.6 -100 -1

Don’t know 44 7%

Total 601 100% 0.7 -100.0 200.0

Table 19: Average Number of books in 2013 per institute type

Institution Mean Count

Academic Top 30,646 82

Academic Middle 21,632 81

Academic Lower 5,606 98

Medical/Health 1,308 94

Government 30,923 42

Corporate 1,619 57

Overall 13,951 455

PERCENTAGE OF BOOKS BUDGET SPENT ON ELECTRONIC BOOKS IN 2013

Librarians estimated the proportion of their book budget spent on electronic books. This rises to 18.8% for 2013 compared to 15.5% last year. Corporate institutes see a strong increase this year. Academic middle institutes are the only sector to spend a smaller proportion of their budget on e-books than last year.

Table 20: Library Book Budget - % spent on electronic books

Region Organisation 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Overall Academic Top 3.3 5.7 4.7 8.3 14.1 22.4 18.3 19.9

Academic Middle 3.2 5.9 5.6 8.5 9.0 14.8 17.7 16.8

Academic Lower 3.0 5.7 5.1 8.0 7.1 15.7 15.4 19.9

All Academic 3.2 5.8 3.2 8.3 10.0 17.6 17.1 18.9

Medical/Health 2.0 5.9 3.7 6.5 4.8 15.0 17.5 21.0

Government 2.6 9.2 5.9 2.4 9.4 10.9 7.7 11.8

Corporate 4.6 3.8 3.5 2.7 11.5 16.8 11.5 20.9

Overall 3.1 6.0 4.9 6.6 9.4 16.3 15.5 18.8


E-BOOKS BUDGET CHANGE FOR 2013

Librarians were asked to indicate their expectations for the level of expenditure change on e-books for 2013. Although these figures seem healthy for most regions, the overall books budget increase of 2.0% suggests that these increases are at the expense of print books. Also, the e-books budget currently stands at only 18.8% of the overall books budget (see table 25).

Table 21: E-Books budget change

Region Predicted % change in e-book expenditure

North America 7.2

Europe 3.9

Asia 18.1

South America 2.5

Overall 8.3

Librarians that take e-books were asked to specify the proportions spent on perpetual, yearly and patron driven acquisition models. It is important to note that many librarians found this question difficult to answer. The majority choose to take perpetual models, with Medical being the only group to take a higher proportion of yearly models. Patron Driven Acquisition models typically count for 5% of the e-books budget.

Table 22: E-Books access models

% of budget spent on perpetual models

% of budget spent on yearly models

% of budget spent on Patron Driven Acquisition models

Academic Top 63 33 5

Academic Middle 65 30 5

Academic Lower 61 34 5

Medical 41 54 5

Government 71 25 4

Corporate 55 38 7

Total 60 35 5


PROPORTION OF FRONT LIST BOOKS

Librarians were asked to give the proportion of books bought in 2013 that were front list and also to estimate the proportion of front list books for 2014. Overall, 70% of books purchased are front list (down slightly from the 73% that was predicted for 2013 front list purchases last year). There is little difference between the proportions across the two years.

Proportion of front list books

Region Organisation 2013 2014

North America




All Academic 73% 73%


Government 86% 88%

Corporate 59% 59%

Overall 73% 73%

Europe






Government 72% 73%

Corporate 77% 77%

Overall 76% 76%

Asia Pacific






Government 73% 63%

Corporate 53% 53%

Overall 64% 63%

South America






Government 51% 57%

Corporate 27% 29%

Overall 57% 60%

Emerging Countries






Government 58% 47%

Corporate 51% 51%

Overall 56% 55%

Overall






Government 74% 73%

Corporate 61% 61%

Overall 70% 70%


MAJOR REFERENCE WORKS

MAJOR REFERENCE WORKS – PREDICTED CHANGE FOR 2014

Librarians were asked whether the number of Major Reference Works (MRWs) to be purchased in 2014 would be greater, remain the same or be less than in 2013.

% Change: Overall, the budget for MRWs is predicted to decrease by 1.7%, this contraction represents an improvement on last year‟s predicted decrease of 2.9%.

o Region: North America is the weakest area, with a drop of 4.6% predicted (last year a 2.4% drop was forecast).

o Asia Pacific return to forecasting an increase (0.7%) following last year‟s predicted decrease of 2.3%. o Europe, whilst still predicting a decrease (-1.7%), shows an improvement on last year where it was the worst

performing region with a predicted decrease of -4.0%. o South America predicts a 2.3% increase following last year‟s -2.6% decrease. o Overall, all sectors with the exception of Corporate are predicting a decrease in spend.

Qualitative Predictions: Just 9% of institutes feel that the number of major reference works purchased in 2014 will increase. The majority of institutes (64%) believe the number of purchases will remain static, and 15% anticipate a decline. The remaining institutes could not give a prediction for this budget area.

Figure 22 Figure 23

REASONS WHY THE NUMBER OF MRWS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN 2014

Librarians were asked why the amount of MRWs purchased had changed from the previous year. The top three reasons for increases and decreases are below: Increases:

New publications/ updated editions are coming out User demand Price increases

Decreases: Budget cuts Information is available for free on the internet Low usage of MRWs


Table 23: MRW Budget change for 2014



North America

Academic Top 11% 64% 22% -4.0



All Academic 14% 62% 23% -4.5


Government 0% 73% 14% -7.8

Corporate 8% 72% 8% -0.7

Overall 10% 67% 19% -4.6

Europe

Academic Top 5% 42% 26% -1.8



All Academic 4% 50% 24% -2.3


Government 10% 48% 14% -2.9

Corporate 8% 54% 12% 0.0

Overall 4% 52% 17% -1.7

Asia Pacific

Academic Top 6% 72% 14% -0.8



All Academic 7% 73% 12% 0.3



Corporate 13% 74% 13% 0.6

Overall 9% 75% 10% 0.7

South America




All Academic 38% 48% 10% 0.4



Corporate 50% 50% 0% 5.0

Overall 41% 49% 8% 2.3

Emerging Countries

Academic Top 21% 57% 14% 0.3



All Academic 20% 57% 16% 0.8


Government 27% 47% 13% 1.7

Corporate 32% 63% 5% 2.9

Overall 23% 58% 13% 1.4

Overall

Academic Top 9% 60% 20% -2.1



All Academic 10% 61% 19% -2.1


Government 11% 62% 11% -1.9

Corporate 12% 65% 10% 0.3

Overall 9% 64% 15% -1.7


MAJOR REFERENCE WORKS FORMATS BEING PURCHASED

95% of organizations surveyed have purchased an MRW in one form or another (up 2% from last year).

Print still predominates as the format of choice (82%), with online purchases slightly behind (71%). Just under a quarter of institutes have purchased MRWs in all three formats (21%), a 1% decline on last year.

Asia Pacific continues to lag behind other regions in terms of uptake of online MRWs (58%). North America has the highest percentage of online MRW uptake (83%). Overall, academic institutes have the highest uptake of online (84%), corporate institutes have the lowest (52%).

Table 24: Purchasing patterns for MRWs by region and organization (up to current year)

% all respondents taking MRW % respondents purchasing different MRW

formats

Region Institution MRW

None Total MRW Print

MRW CD ROM

MRW Online

All MRW Formats (any format)

North America

Academic Top 97% 3% 100% 86% 17% 97% 17%

Academic Middle 100% 0% 100% 81% 28% 100% 28%

Academic Lower 97% 3% 100% 97% 22% 97% 22%

All Academic 98% 2% 100% 88% 21% 98% 21%

Medical/Health 83% 17% 100% 69% 9% 69% 9%

Government 71% 29% 100% 52% 5% 62% 5%

Corporate 92% 8% 100% 69% 23% 54% 8%

Overall 92% 8% 100% 78% 18% 83% 16%

Europe

Academic Top 100% 0% 100% 78% 21% 79% 13%

Academic Middle 100% 0% 100% 86% 22% 89% 22%

Academic Lower 100% 0% 100% 89% 16% 68% 13%

All Academic 100% 0% 100% 85% 20% 79% 16%

Medical/Health 92% 8% 100% 83% 22% 50% 14%

Government 100% 0% 100% 95% 38% 67% 27%

Corporate 96% 4% 100% 92% 15% 48% 12%

Overall 98% 2% 100% 87% 21% 68% 16%

Asia Pacific

Academic Top 100% 0% 100% 94% 43% 80% 40%

Academic Middle 100% 0% 100% 89% 31% 64% 19%

Academic Lower 86% 14% 100% 78% 32% 65% 27%

All Academic 95% 5% 100% 87% 35% 70% 29%

Medical/Health 84% 16% 100% 84% 16% 31% 9%

Government 100% 0% 100% 100% 47% 42% 26%

Corporate 91% 9% 100% 86% 45% 55% 41%

Overall 93% 7% 100% 88% 34% 58% 27%

South America

Academic Top 100% 0% 100% 57% 57% 100% 57%

Academic Middle 100% 0% 100% 50% 63% 100% 43%

Academic Lower 100% 0% 100% 43% 43% 100% 43%

All Academic 100% 0% 100% 52% 57% 100% 71%

Medical/Health 100% 0% 100% 50% 50% 100% 50%

Government 100% 0% 100% 50% 25% 75% 25%

Corporate 100% 0% 100% 50% 25% 75% 25%

Overall 100% 0% 100% 50% 47% 95% 43%

Emerging Countries

Academic Top 100% 0% 100% 85% 33% 74% 30%

Academic Middle 100% 0% 100% 81% 22% 67% 19%

Academic Lower 96% 4% 100% 77% 22% 74% 22%

All Academic 97% 3% 100% 92% 54% 62% 42%

Medical/Health 92% 8% 100% 75% 38% 50% 20%

Government 100% 0% 100% 88% 69% 63% 44%

Corporate 100% 0% 100% 84% 44% 63% 37%

Overall 98% 2% 100% 81% 35% 66% 27%

Overall

Academic Top 99% 1% 100% 85% 28% 87% 25%

Academic Middle 100% 0% 100% 83% 28% 85% 24%

Academic Lower 94% 6% 100% 86% 24% 78% 22%

All Academic 98% 2% 100% 85% 27% 84% 24%

Medical/Health 88% 12% 100% 77% 18% 54% 13%

Government 91% 9% 100% 80% 30% 60% 19%

Corporate 94% 6% 100% 81% 27% 52% 19%

Overall 95% 5% 100% 82% 26% 71% 21%


PERPETUAL VS YEARLY ACCESS OF MRWS

Those librarians who had purchased online MRWs were asked to specify the proportion of the budget spent on perpetual and yearly models. Academic Top institutes have a preference for perpetual models, whilst Medical institutions have the highest proportion of yearly models.

Table 25: MRW access models

% of budget spent on perpetual models

% of budget spent on yearly models

Academic Top 60.7 39.3

Academic Middle 58.6 41.5

Academic Lower 52.0 48.0

Medical 46.5 53.5

Government 41.9 51.9

Corporate 57.1 42.9

Total 54.7 44.8

INSTITUTIONAL REPOSITORIES

Institutional repositories are fairly widespread, with just over half (55%) of all institutions either owning, or sharing ownership of a repository.

As expected, the most widespread repository ownership is in the academic sector, with close to three quarters (72%) of institutions providing a repository. This rises to 90% for top academic institutes. The lowest level of repository ownership remains in the medical sector (22%). This has remained constant from last year.

Research Articles are the most preferred content with 80% of institutes indicating they post research articles into their repository. Dissertations and Theses (74%) are the next most frequently mentioned type. The “other” formats mentioned include reports and conference papers.

The number of institutions storing datasets continues to drop. This stood at 53% in 2011 before decreasing to 39% last year. This year sees a further drop to 29%. Medical institutes show the biggest change (60% last year to 29& this year).

Table 26: Usage of Institutional Repositories

Organisation % access a repository

Type kept in repository

Dissertations/ theses

Research articles

Teaching materials

Datasets Other

Academic Top 90% 91% 84% 51% 31% 10%

Academic Middle 74% 85% 84% 41% 26% 9%

Academic Lower 53% 89% 82% 36% 31% 11%

All Academic 72% 88% 83% 44% 29% 10%

Medical/Health 22% 32% 76% 33% 29% 17%

Government 48% 19% 70% 19% 29% 32%

Corporate 31% 42% 63% 21% 25% 21%

Overall 55% 74% 80% 39% 29% 13%


HOW INFORMATION IN REPOSITORIES IS STORED

The 331 institutions which reported having a repository were asked some follow up questions about the format of information being stored and how the repositories are maintained. 99% of institutions keep information in text format. This is static against last year. Images remain the second most popular format to be stored, but this has decreased 13% from last year. Video also drops substantially (down 15%) whereas audio presence declines from 48% to 29%.


Organisation Format kept in repository

Text Video Audio Images

Academic Top 99% 31% 31% 42%



All Academic 99% 33% 33% 43%


Government 100% 32% 32% 39%

Corporate 96% 38% 38% 42%

Overall 99% 33% 29% 43%

HOW INFORMATION IN REPOSTIORIES IS MAINTAINED

Currently, most of the information stored within institutional repositories is deposited voluntarily. The proportion of academic institutes requiring mandatory storage of research articles is 14%.

The majority of institutional repositories are maintained by library staff (90%) 53% of repositories are available to all. This is static compared to last year.


Type Mandatory Voluntary

Academic

Dissertations/ theses 40% 60%

Research articles 14% 86%

Teaching materials 15% 85%

Datasets 14% 86%

Other 21% 79%

Non-Academic

Dissertations/ theses 39% 61%

Research articles 30% 70%

Teaching materials 37% 63%

Datasets 20% 80%

Other 42% 58%

Table 30: Who maintains the repository Maintenance Proportion

Library staff at the institute 90%

Staff at the institute, but not based in the library

9%

3rd party agency 1%

Table 29: Availability of repository Maintenance Proportion

It is only available to individuals based in your institute

34%

Available to anyone in the country in which the institute is

13%

Available to all 53%


GROWTH OF INSTITUTIONAL REPOSITORIES

All institutes were asked how fast they thought their institutional repositories were growing, 46% thought they were growing fast or very fast, but most indicated that they were growing slowly or very slowly (54%).

Geographically, South America continues to make the least progress with repositories – only 19% say they are growing fast.

Table 31: Growth of Institutional Repositories

Organisation It is growing

very fast It is growing

fast It is growing

slowly It is growing very slowly

Academic Top 5% 44% 44% 7%



All Academic 5% 42% 47% 6%


Government 6% 32% 58% 3%

Corporate 0% 38% 58% 0%

Overall 5% 41% 49% 5%

Table 32: Growth of Institutional Repositories

Region It is growing

very fast

It is growing

fast

It is growing slowly

It is growing

very slowly

North America 8% 45% 40% 7%

Europe 8% 40% 49% 3%

Asia Pacific 1% 46% 48% 5%

South America 0% 19% 72% 9%

Emerging Countries 4% 42% 48% 3%

Overall 5% 41% 49% 5%

Date post:	16-May-2020
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