Light-duty Vehicle Technology for the Next Decade+

Tom CacketteCalifornia Air Resources Board

Ventura County Air Pollution Control BoardSeptember 10, 2013

Emissions and fuel economy, by 2016 Smog emissions - about the same Greenhouse gas emissions – 17% lower Fuel economy - 20% better

Economics New car price increase (2016) - <$1000 Fuel savings ~ $3000 (~$25/mo. saving)

Vehicles and TechnologiesNext 5 Model Years – 2011-16

Technology Penetration Model Years - 2011-16

Aero & tires

TransmissionDirect injection

Lower weightElectric driveAdv. ICE

Emissions and fuel economy, by 2025 Smog emissions – 75% decrease Greenhouse gas emissions – 34% lower Fuel economy - 50% better

Economics New car price increase - $1800 (vs 2016

MY) Fuel savings ~ $7000 Breakeven point – 3 years

Vehicles and TechnologiesFollowing 9 Model Years – 2017-25

Technology PenetrationFollowing 9 Model Years – 2017-25

22222

ZEV Annual Sales Required -California

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

An

nu

al Z

EV

s

Projected: Plug-in Hybrids

Projected: BEVs & FCEV

15.4% of Annual Sales by 2025

Historic annual sales: 1.5-2M

Fuel Cell Vehicles

Battery Electric Vehicles

Plug-In Hybrids

Lots of ZEVs Coming!

Fueling Infrastructure – Electric

Current public charging spots ~2000 level 2 chargers (3-6 hour charge)

Planned expansion ~18,000 level 2 chargers ~200 fast chargers (~30 minute charge)

$3 million in grants to local government for electric vehicle readiness preparation

9

Zero Emission Passenger Vehicles Critical to Success – Now to 2050

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

LD

V O

n-R

oad

Veh

icle

s

Advanced Gasoline

Vehicles

Plug HEVs

FCVs

HEVs

79%

BEVs + FCVs (ZEVs)

120,000 (2020) 1,400,000 (2025)

California Air Resources Board, 2009

BEVs

Adopted requireme

nts

The End