Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December

8/13/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December

1/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 1


2/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 2

C

....................................................................................................................................................... 3

L R P I........................................................................................................ 4

I .................................................................................................................................................. 5F F R ............................................................................................................................................ 10

C O ..................................................................................................................................................... 11

C: B P ................................................................................................................... 12

E: NF P ................................................................................................................ 13

E: E H ............................................................................. 14

E: J G / L ................................................................................................................ 15

E: J G/L () .............................................................................................. 16

E: H F ......................................................................................................................... 17

E: I R NF P .................................................................................. 18

E: F ............................................................................................................................... 19

E: P, L F, E .................................................................................... 20

E: L F P R ............................................................................................. 21

E: ..................................................................................................................... 22

C C: M ............................................................................... 23

C C: C B ...................................................................................... 24

C: O ............................................................................................................................ 25

C: B L L .................................................................................................................... 26

R : N .................................................................................................................................. 27

R : R ......................................................................................................................................... 28

R : R ........................................................................................................................ 29

R : E A ...................................................................................................................... 30M: H ................................................................................................................... 31

M: O ............................................................................................................................... 32

O: C G ................................................................................................................................. 33

M: D ............................................................................................................ 34

E: C .................................................................................................................................. 35

E: P...................................................................................................................................... 36

: M ................................................................................................................... 37

: G C ...................................................................................................... 38

I: R D I C .............................................................................................. 39

I: C & P P....................................................................................................... 40I E ................................................................................................................................. 41


3/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 3

Summary

"G":

D N L N M C R N

"B":

O G 0.2% ( 3 ) A 3 +17% +3% A C O G 1%

. H, .

2014.


4/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 4

Lighthouse Recession Probability Index


5/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 5

Introduction

R . K

.

I , NBER (N B

E R). NBER "

" (, , GDP ).

NBER ' ;

(D 2007) D 1, 2008 . B , &P

500 I 1,575 741. , J 2009

20, 2010 . B , &P 500

940 1,142.

NBER

( NBER ' ,

).

.

H, , &P 500

O 2007,

8 .

, F R B (

). H, ,

.

( 2 G, , D

) . ,

IRP (

).

I , ECRI (E C R I),

, "".

C B L I &P 500 I,

M2 (

).

A ,

NBER .


6/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 6

R GDP ; O A 28, 2008 ( 8

" "), Q2 2008 GDP +1.9%

+3.3%, 2% . L, 1.3%,

3.7%, 9.2% 5.4% (, ). &P 500 I '

2 1/2 .

F ""

NBER.

O 50 , : F.

, . D

F

. A F.

;

"" ( 3 ).

. O

( , ,

).

. O :

( ) ( ) /


7/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 7

N . ( )

( ). . ("")

; ("")

. A ,

. A 50% ,

100% .

"L R P I" (LRPI)

. H (: 3)

(: 1). O LRPI

1971, ( 40%50% ).

F R B . L C / P

( ). I ( , ,

). H, C/P

, LRPI (1 ).

LRPI C/P.

I , C "

80% ". A, "" 70% (2003/4) .

20% A 2012, 1.7% .


8/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 8


9/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 9

40% LRPI ( 40%) .

&P 500

( ):

A LRPI 7% (A 1980)

(2001) ' ' (20082009).

. ('') (

)

(19822000).

P LRPI .


10/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 10

Fed Funds Rate

("F") 9 .

F F ;

. A 2 4.5

1954.

R . ; .

( ) , ( )

. N

.

L R P I.


11/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 11

Crude Oil

A 75% 100% . C M 2011 F 2012. C . C $113/ . LRPI


12/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 12

Construction: Building Permits

? N ! A 25%+

. M 2001 . 2011 . A 1990/91

( 250 316 2013).

C . H,

. LRPI.


13/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 13

Employment: Non-Farm Payrolls

"", , .

"" . A

1% .

; "" 1980 1982

. , "E ",

(>40 ). "H " ( ) 60,000

. O , , .

D ? O 47% A . 2007, , 2.5

. P "" . F

(Q1 2008) Q1 2010 1.2 "" ( $2154) ;

2 0.8 . 4

($1421) , 0.9 . A ($7$14), 1.3

, 2 . LRPI.


14/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 14

Employment: Establishment versus Household Survey

N B E R (NBER) E

H .

O ( ). H,

. E .


15/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 15

Employment: Jobs Gained / Lost

C 191,000 (12 ) .


16/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 16

Employment: Jobs Gained/Lost (zoomed-in)

E 100,000, 300,000


17/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 17

Employment: Hire and Fire

E , 4 4 .

( ).

( ). ( ) ' ';

.

, 1/3 (4.2 12 = 50) .


18/42


19/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 19

Employment: Full Time

, .

P , ( ).

R :


20/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 20

Employment: Population, Labor Force, Employees

, , .

. N :


21/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 21

Employment: Labor Force Participation Rate

' '( ). M

, .

L , ( , ).

E .


22/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 22

Employment: Unemployment

L (49%) , 45.5% (, , ,

, ) , ' '

A . I, 2.5 2008. E

. I ,

, .

2007, 13 90, .

E .

, N 15.3%

( 7.0%).


23/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 23

Consumer Confidence: University of Michigan Survey

M, R, 500 ,

1964 100. A

.

(2005) (1981; 19801981 , ' ). A 25%+

. 2011 . LRPI

.


24/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 24

Consumer Confidence: Conference Board Survey

C B, , 3,000

. 18 .

.

(1992, 2003), 1981/2 2001 ( ). 2011 " ".

LRPI .


25/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 25

Credit: Total Outstanding

M . F 60

, 2009, 2% (

?). I 1987 ( ). A

: () ; ,

. , ,

. LRPI ,

.

Q2'09 CMDO GDP (374%). Q3'07 10.6%

( &P 500 1,575).


26/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 26

Credit: Bank Loans and Leases

1971, 2%

H,


27/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 27

Retail Sales: Nominal

F LRPI, " " ( ). N , .

:


28/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 28

Retail Sales: Real

N ; LRPI R :


29/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 29

Retail Sales: Real per-capita

R 5% N R :


30/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 30

Retail Sales: Excluding Autos

M , $80 1/5 , , .

O , 3% (A: +17%).

I Q4 2012, 45% (FICO


31/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 31

Manufacturing: Hours Worked

C ' A 2%

( 1996); LRPI

H


32/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 32

Manufacturing: Orders

I M (IM) ,, .

A 50 "" ( ). (1989).

LRPI .


33/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 33

Orders: Capital Goods

D , . "" . " "

5% 0%. LRPI. C .

D

G .


34/42


35/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 35

Energy: Consumption

I . . I 1% , '

L ,

C 100% "E " LRPI


36/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 36

Energy: Production

E . , , (1983, 1992, 1997, 2006), "";

2.5% . 0.5%

, .

I N, 1.8%, 100%

LRPI


37/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 37

Transportation: Miles Traveled

2.25 (0.7%) , . I

0.1% , (

).

2001 . 2011 (

). 2007 ;

1980/81. O ,

. A A

' .

, . ,

, LRPI. I M,

, .


38/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 38

Transportation: Gasoline Consumption

C , ;

"L" (1996) 2012 ( ) ,

0% " ", ,

. I LRPI.


39/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 39

Income: Real Disposable Income per Capita

I

G , ( )


40/42


41/42

L I M

M R E I D 2013 P 41

Inflation Expectations

R = . R :

IP. 5 (), 10 () 30

() . "" ;

( ). , ,

. I :


42/42

L I M

A .

A.G@LIM.

,

'

,

'

, , ,

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +

, ()

() ,

Date post:	04-Jun-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	alexander-gloy
View:	217 times
Download:	0 times

Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December

Documents