Lignite Project Lignite Project

By Ramic, Haris By Ramic, Haris

GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY

World energy consumption is projected to increase at about 1.8%/year between 2000 and 2030(driven by economic and population growth)Industrialized countries experience a slowdown in their energy demand growth (0.4%/year in the EU)the energy demand of developing countries is growing rapidly(55% used by them in 2030)The world energy system will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels.In 2030, fossil fuels are expected to represent almost 90% of total energy demand (coal 28%)Almost two-thirds of the increase in coal demand between 2000 and 2030 comes from Asiaworld CO2 emissions are expected to grow rapidly

GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY

In 2030, fossil fuels (coal, lignite, oil and natural gas) are projected to represent 90% of world energy consumption greater than 81% in 2000Oil still represents the largest share (34%) of the world gross inland consumption (GIC) in 2030Oil demand increases at a rate of 1.6%/yearNatural gas demand increases by 3%/year on average between 2000 and 2010 and by 2.1%/year afterwards extending to 25% in from 21% in 2000.Coal demand has been growing steadily with growth of coal consumption 0.9%/year from 1990 to 2000 but after 2000 it goes

to 2.1%/ and then to 2.5%/year until 2030 as it becomes more competitiveNuclear energy consumption drops in 2030, nuclear represents 5% of the world GIC, compared to 7% in 2000.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY

Global Energy Consumption by Global Energy Consumption by SectorSector

Global Energy Consumption and Global Energy Consumption and CO2 productionCO2 production

EUROPEAN OUTLOOK FOR EUROPEAN OUTLOOK FOR ENERGYENERGY

Oil represents 39% of EU total energy consumption by 2030

Natural gas represents 27% of EU total energy consumption by 2030

Coal and lignite presents 16% of EU total energy consumption by 2030

EU Energy ConsumptionEU Energy Consumption

EU Energy Consumption by SectorEU Energy Consumption by Sector

EUROPE OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY CONSUMTIONEUROPE OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY CONSUMTION

World Power GenerationWorld Power Generation

The share of conventional coal in power generation is expected to decrease from 36 % in 2000 to 12 % in 2030The share of gas in power generation increase from 16% to 25% in 2030The share of advanced coal in power generation increases by 33% in 2030Hydropower and nuclear power generation decreases on average 8%

World Power GenerationWorld Power Generation

EU Power GenerationEU Power Generation

Electricity by 2030Electricity by 2030

accounting for almost a quarter of final energy demandcoal use for electricity declines in industrialized countriesproduction of electricity increases steadily at an average rate of 3 %/year.half of the production in 2030 will be provided by technologies that emerged in the nineties and afterwards like combined cycle gas turbines, advanced coal technologies and renewable.

Electricity use and GDP per capita, 1980-2030

World Coal SupplyWorld Coal SupplyEasily accessible significant reserves exist in North America, in Asia, in Africa and in the Pacific regionImportant coal reserves exist in Russia but coal production and transport costs are there considerably higher than in the other regions so production is lowCoal supply is not subject to resources constraintsProduction is essentially demand drivenproduction is also expected to double between 2000 and 2030,Coal production is expected to grow by 2.3%/year on average over the projection period, mostly in Africa and Asia (respectively 4.5% and 3%/year)Production will continue to decline in the EU (-0.8%/year)In 2030, more than half the world’s coal production comes from Asia (China 35%)Coal production is also expected to double between by 2030

World Coal ProductionWorld Coal Production

Coal PricesCoal Prices

The coal price is expected to remain relatively stable at around 10 €/bl in 2030 compare to 35 €/bl in 2030 for oil and 28 €/bl in 2030 for gasIncreases of 15 to 35 % from current price levels for coal The modernization and mechanization of coal production will exert downward pressure on pricesLimited increases in world coal prices since there is abundance of coal

Advanced CoalAdvanced Coal

Solid fuel burning technologies Supercritical coal plants Integrated coal gasification

The integrated coal gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC)

The direct coal fired combined cycle plant

The supercritical coal power plant.The supercritical coal power plant.

Technology Achieves high conversion efficiencies applying supercritical steam

conditions (higher pressure and temperature of the steam)Special materials are necessary to withstand these conditionsCapital cost of the technology is around 1100 €/kW Low operating and maintenance costs (by coal fired power plant standards)Better coal technology than Integrated coal gasificationTechno-economic performance of this type of plant by 2030

efficiency is increased to 55 % by 2030 capital cost brought down to 800 €/kW by 10 % reduction in operation and maintenance (O&M) costs was also

introduced gaining about 20 % of world total central power generation 30 % of world coal generation by 2030

Integrated coal gasification combined Integrated coal gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC)cycle power plant (IGCC)

Technology Applies coal gasification with combustion of the coal gas in a gas turbine

and the recovery of waste heat in a boilerThe technology reaches about 50 % efficiency Capital cost of the technology is around 1350 €/kW by 2030Relatively high operating and maintenance costs of about 87 €/kWAbout half the importance of supercritical coalTechno-economic performance of this type of plant by 2030

substantially improved to reach 54 % efficiency 28 % reductions in capital 10% in fixed O&M costs.

The direct coal fired combined cycle The direct coal fired combined cycle plantplant

Technology applying a gas turbine and a steam turbine in a combined cycle. However,

the coal is directly burnt in the gas turbine without previous gasification technology will be available only after 2015

The presence of coal particles inside the turbine poses technical problems, still unsolvedCapital-cost projected at 1250 €/kW, reaching 50 % thermal efficiency by 2030relatively low operating costsTechno-economic performance of this type of plant by 2030

capital cost of 960 €/kW an efficiency of 54 % 28 % reductions in capital 10% in fixed O&M costs.

Cost of electricity: gas combined cycle versus Cost of electricity: gas combined cycle versus supercritical coalsupercritical coal

technologytechnology

Learning curves for advanced coal Learning curves for advanced coal technologiestechnologies

Coal Overview Coal Overview

Transportation Building Costs Transportation Building Costs Road Costs ( data 2002 EU Commission for Tran.)

Transportation Building CostsTransportation Building CostsRail Roads ( data 2002 EU Commission for Tran.)

Transportation Building CostsTransportation Building Costs

Current Railroad LinksCurrent Railroad Links

Strategic Railways Strategic Railways