Limits to Growth Meadows

7/31/2019 Limits to Growth Meadows

1/36

1

Perspectives on Limits to Growth37 Years Later

Dennis Meadows

R09

Davos, Switzerland14 September, 2009


2/36

2

Exercise


3/36

3

The reference scenarioOriginalReport

Today

Industrial

Output

Population

Pollution

Food

Resources


4/36

4

Main insights from the scenarios

In 1972 we expected another 40-50 years of physical growth onaverage around the world without major problems.

The timing for the end of growth was not known precisely, butall our scenarios showed it occurring in the period 2020-2050.

Radical changes in technology were useful for slightly delayingthe end of growth, but they did not permit growth to continue

past 2050.

Social changes were required to achieve the most attractivefutures.

What we today call problems are actually symptoms of naturalforces rising until they can end physical growth.

Fossil fuel depletion is not a unique symptom, except that it willappear earlier than many other limits.


5/36

5

The major problems come before

the end of growth, not after

Most people believe that the big problems would be

during the period of decline. This is wrong.

In order to stop growth, social, economic,biological, and economic pressures must grow until

they equal the forces that produce growth. Now the

forces promoting growth are strongest. So the

biggest problems will come before the peak.

Consequently, there will be more changes in the

next 2-3 decades than there have been in the past

100 years.


6/36

6

World population


7/367

Industrial production


8/368

Index of world metals use


9/369

1990 2007

0

100

250

NickelCopper

ZincIron OreBauxite

World GDP


10/3610

One Indicator of Overshoot


11/3611

Index of Capital to Obtain

Resources


12/3612

BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009, p. 42.

35%

24%

29%


13/3613

My first

visit to CH


14/3614

My

Birth

Year


15/3615

Gap between discovery and use


16/3616

Oil discovery controlled by

desired reserve ratio


17/3617

Cost to Discover New Oil

% Remaining

0 100

Costof

Discovery

Approximate

Current Position


18/36

18

Oil discovery is now controlled

by cost, not by desired reserve ratio

Undiscovered

Oil

Discovered

OilDiscovery

Rate

Usage

Rate

Cost of

DiscoveryReserve

Ratio

Investment

in DiscoveryUse

Per Person

Population

Desired

Reserve Ratio


19/36

19

Global Oil Production Profile


20/36

20

Four Factors Determine the

Amount of Oil Consumption

Dennis Meadows

Oil Con-sumption

=Number

ofPeople

XUnits of

Capital/Person

X X

EnergyRequired

Per Capital

Unit

Fraction of

EnergyFrom Oil

Immigration

& Fertility

Lifestyle

& Culture EfficiencyAlternative

Energy

TechnologySociology


21/36

21

Oil Price Results

From 4 FactorsSpeculators Margin

Supply/demand multiplier

Producers Margin

Production Cost


22/36

22

Depletion and oil price

Speculators Margin


Producers Margin

Production Cost

Depletion

+


23/36

23

Oil Price Results

From 4 FactorsSpeculators Margin


Producers Margin

Production Cost

Depletion

Monopoly

Control

Rapid Price Change

SupplyProblems

# of Producers-

-

+

+

++

+

+


24/36

24

Two sources of difficult

problems in the energy sector

The increased capital requirements of the

energy sector will reduce potential forgrowth in other sectors.

The decline of free energy will force drastic

changes in technology and lifestyle.


25/36

25


26/36

26

Energy Return on Investment


27/36

27

Some Net Energy Yields

US Oil 1930 - 100; 1970 - 30; 2005 - 15

Imported Oil - 30

Coal - 10 - 80

Nuclear - 10

Firewood - 25

Photovoltaics - 15-45

Oil Sands - 2-3


28/36

28

Principles for action - 1

Recognize that until physical growth is halted on this planet, there

is no possibility of avoiding ever rising problems. Develop the government, corporate, and cultural capacity for

sustained long-term action, even when the necessary solutionsmake the of short-term problems seem worse. Remember you donot have to develop these changes within precisely the currentsystem; as that will change anyway.

Expect the present market system to magnify problems, not avoidthem.

Remember there are enormous delays between action and

response; so take action before it is obviously needed. Social and cultural policies will give better results than economic

and technical policies. Focus on getting enough rather than ongetting more.


29/36

29

Principles for action - 2

Do not use economic discounting methods to find

solutions for problems that produce irreversible results

Expect problems to appear suddenly and in

combination.

Realize that no one fully understands these systems. Realize that government will be overloaded and will

make mistakes.

Forget about going back to the past conditions. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Preventing damage is cheaper than repairing it.


30/36

30

I have two pens

Montblanc

Sundance


31/36

31

The Montblanc Pen

I use it for writing.

It is made from platinum and precious

resin.

It cost about US $250.


32/36


33/36

33

Which pen is more sustainable?

Refer to the Montblanc as pen #1; refer to

the Sundance as pen #2.

Please decide which pen you think is moresustainable and show either 1 or 2 fingers

silently to the person sitting next to you.


34/36

34

More information

I never take the Montblanc pen out of my

office, so I will use it the rest of my life andthen pass it on to a relative.

I lose the Sundance pen almost every time I

take it away from my home, so I have to buymany dozens of them each year.

When the Montblanc pen ink cartridge becomes

empty, I buy a refill. If I still have the Sundance pen when its ink

cartridge becomes empty, I will throw the pen

away and get a new one.


35/36

35

I will ask again:

Which pen is more sustainable?

Refer to the Montblanc as pen #1; refer to

the Sundance as pen #2. Please decide which pen you think is more

sustainable and show either 1 or 2 fingers

silently to the person sitting next to you.

M i L


36/36

36

Main Lessons Many votes changed after the new information.

The new information did not describe the pensphysical technology; it described my relationship,

habits, and attitudes toward the pens.

Sustainability is not mainly in the physicaltechnology of the tool, it is in our relationship to

the tool.

Achieving sustainable development in the next

two decades will require changes in attitudes and

goals.

Date post:	05-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	di-fer
View:	224 times
Download:	0 times

Limits to Growth Meadows

Documents