Limits to Growth or Growth to the Limits?Trends and Projections for Potatoes in Chinaand Their Implications for Industry

Gregory J. Scott & Víctor Suarez

Received: 24 August 2011 /Accepted: 5 June 2012 /Published online: 18 July 2012# EAPR 2012

Abstract While output for potatoes in China averaged nearly 73 million metrictonnes in 2008–2010, the trends for production, area, and yield have been far morevolatile than suggested in earlier studies. A new set of estimated growth rates forpotato production in China during the last five decades based on FAO times seriesdata found that periods of rapid expansion were then followed by ones of stagnationand decline. Although increases in potato output have been impressive, China’s shareof both regional and global production has declined in recent years as a result. Thispaper analyses these and other dimensions to the evolution of potato production inChina during the last half century by synthesizing previous research before reassess-ing alternative future projections, highlighting opportunities for industry, and identi-fying some key topics for future research.

Keywords Area . Constraints . Government policy . Private sector . Yields

Introduction

Potato production and use in China have become the focus of increased scrutiny overthe last 25 years for a variety of considerations. China became the world’s largestpotato producer in 1993 due to a surge in output there and the breakup of the formerSoviet Union. As production continued to expand, previous skepticism about thelevel of output of a crop not normally associated with food systems in that country—in part based on noteworthy revisions to reported annual production (see Stone 1984;Horton 1988)—eventually gave way to growing recognition of the potato’s impor-tance in China but also as part of the global food system for that commodity (Horton

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156DOI 10.1007/s11540-012-9215-8

G. J. Scott (*)CENTRUM Católica, Centro de Negocios de la Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú, Lima, Perue-mail: gscott@pucp.pe

V. SuarezInternational Potato Center (CIP), Lima, Peru

1987; Scott 1992; Walker et al. 1999; Scott et al. 2000; Wang and Zhang 2004; FAO2009). Given the country’s 1.3 billion people and continued rapid economic growthcombined with the sharp downturn in potato output in Europe (Haase and Haverkort2006), more recent studies have sought to better understand the different dimensionsto the evolution of potato production in China and the role of government policiesand the private sector in that process (Xie et al. 2007; Wang and Zhang 2010). Recentresearch has also attempted to identify constraints to a further expansion of outputamid concerns about the impact of climate change and environmental issues, amongother factors, on potato production in the years ahead (Gitomer 1996; Hijmans 2003;Fuglie 2007; Xie et al. 2007; Ezeta 2009; Jansky et al. 2009).

While previous publications have analysed growth rates in potato production, areaharvested, and yields in China, some of these documents have largely focused onsimply reporting growth rates (Horton 1978; CIP 1999, 2010). Others have examinedthese growth rates as part of a broader look at the evolution of the food systems forpotatoes in developing countries more generally (Van der Zaag and Horton 1983;Horton et al. 1984; Horton 1987, 1988; Walker et al. 1999; Guenthner 2001, pp. 42–55; Scott 2002). A few have included projections for future production, area, andyields (Anonymous 1995; Scott et al. 2000; Wang and Zhang 2004). Some haveconfined their analysis largely to biological (Jansky et al. 2009) or socioeconomicfactors (Wang and Zhang 2010) influencing the evolution of potato production. Allthese studies have been handicapped by their shorter time horizons or more narrowdisciplinary focus. Most previous studies have also failed to take account of sub-periods within a given overall time span. Several have been focused more on globalor regional trends in potato production than tendencies for the crop in China itself.

In that context, this paper seeks to help consolidate the various efforts to increaseour understanding of past trends and future prospects for potato production in Chinaand their implications for industry in an increasingly challenging environment.Particular attention is given to the long-term trend in production and the evolutionof growth rates rather than the absolute levels of output or area harvested, or simplythe percentage increases in these indicators. Furthermore, growth rates for potatoesare not only analysed in themselves but also in relation to the growth rates for othermajor food crops in China. The overall intent is to sharpen our appreciation of whatthose trends have been and the factors contributing to them over time, in particular thedifferent government policies that influenced the evolution of potato production andthe participation of the private sector in this process. The paper concludes with a briefreview of past projections, an assessment of alternative scenarios for potato sector inChina over the remainder of this decade, and their implications for industry.

Materials and Methods

The analysis of growth rates in potato production, area harvested, and yields in Chinaover nearly the last half century presented here utilized a three-step approach aspresented in Scott (2011) and then further developed in Scott and Suarez (2011). As afirst step, this study employed the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations (FAO) times series data to estimate average annual growth rates on a point-to-point basis beginning with potatoes and then including other crops. FAO data were

136 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156

utilized to facilitate international comparisons with other countries for key potatoparameters. To that end, annual averages were calculated for key production indica-tors for potatoes for the beginning (1961–1963) and end (2008–2010) of the periodunder consideration. These 3-year averages then served to estimate growth rates overthe entire 49-year period. Subsequently, comparable averages for 1984–1986, orroughly the mid-point in the overall time series, were utilized to calculate growthrates over the first (vs. 1961–1963) and second (vs. 2008–2010) halves of the timeseries in an initial attempt to determine if these growth rates were slowing down orspeeding up. Similar growth rates were also calculated for the other major food cropsin China so as to better contextualize developments in the potato sector over the lastfive decades.

A second step in this study involved tracking the rate of change in averagecompound growth rates (ACGRs) for potato production, area harvested, and yieldson a more continuous basis during the last five decades. In other words, as referenc-ing a particular set of years (e.g., 1984–1986) or a given subset of time periods isarbitrary in nature, this study also estimated the evolution of the growth ratesthemselves. Hence, ACGRs for potato production, area, and yields were calculatedutilizing all the data for every 10-year period beginning with 1961–1971. In otherwords, growth rates were calculated on a moving 10-year basis, i.e., 1961–1971,1962–1972, on up to 2000–2010. These growth rates were then plotted to observe thechanges in their trajectory over the last five decades and then examined to compareover time the shifting relative importance of growth rates for area versus those foryields in relation to those for production.

As a third step, the estimated growth rates were also compared with earlierstudies for clarifying the factors behind these tendencies and analysing theirrelative importance. The combined set of growth rates, data analysis, and synthesisof the related literature provided an empirical basis on which to evaluate previousprojections and alternative future scenarios for potato production in China in thedecades ahead. In so doing, the paper also draws attention to the more readilyapparent inconsistencies and gaps in the data both as a word of caution relating totheir interpretation and as one basis for highlighting areas for possible futureresearch.

Results

Potato production in China averaged nearly 73 million metric tonnes (Mg) in 2008–2010—over five times the 12.9 million Mg harvested in 1961–1963, nearly half acentury earlier (Table 1). As growth in potato production in China surged upward inthe 1990s (Scott 2002), output levels in several European countries imploded (Haaseand Haverkort 2006), those in Latin America expanded at a far slower rate (Scott2011), and those in Africa began from a much smaller base (Horton 1987;Anonymous 1995). As a result, China alone accounted for over 20% of global potatooutput by 2008–2010 and over a quarter of all the area harvested—up from a muchmore modest 5% of production and 6% of area in potatoes worldwide in 1961–1963.

The increase in potato output in China resulted from an annual growth rate forpotato production that averaged 3.8%/year for nearly the last 50 years. Furthermore,

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156 137

the growth rate for production actually accelerated in the latter half of the 49-yearperiod. However, while previous studies tended to characterize potato output in Chinasince 1978 in terms of a steady expansion (Walker et al. 1999; Jansky et al. 2009),more detailed tracking of growth rates reveals striking peaks and valleys in theirvelocity over the last five decades (Fig. 1).

ACGRs for potato production were strong through the 1960s up to the mid-to-late1970s then collapsed during the ensuing nearly 15 years (Table 2). Growth rates foroutput rebounded in the 1980s as output recovered from the fall in the early 1970s.ACGRs for production reached an apex in the late 1980s to 1990s. Since the early2000s, according to FAO data, growth rates for potato production in China haveturned sharply slower once again, although it should be noted that this latest trendcovers a period for which a recent report based on Chinese data (Xie 2008a) indicatesconsiderably higher output, area harvested, and yields for 2006, hence a less severedownturn in growth rates (see Appendix). Nevertheless, given that the ACGRs forpotato production have experienced such a series of peaks and valleys over nearly thelast half century, taken together they defy a particular linear trend (Fig. 1).

Area harvested in potatoes in China more than doubled from 2.3 million ha in1961–1963 to over 4.9 million ha in 2008–2010. More significantly, average annualgrowth rates in area harvested in potatoes actually accelerated by 20% to 2.9% perannum over the latter part of the period (Table 1), thereby accounting for the bulk ofthe increase in output. However, these broad trends over the last half century alsomask several distinct periods. ACGRs for area harvested in potatoes began to decline

Table 1 Average annual growth rates for selected crops in China, 1961–2010

Crop 2008–10 Growth ratea

Production(000 Mg)

Area(000 ha)

Yield (Mg/ha)

Production Area Yield

1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3

Rice, paddy 195,729 29,831 6.6 4.3 0.5 2.3 0.8 −0.4 0.2 3.6 0.9 2.2

Maize 169,230 31,202 5.4 6.0 3.8 4.8 1.1 2.2 1.6 4.8 1.5 3.1

Wheat 114,251 24,055 4.7 7.5 1.1 4.2 0.8 −0.8 0.0 6.7 2.0 4.2

Sweetpotatoes

78,797 3,673 21.5 1.3 −1.3 0.0−2.1 −2.2 −2.2 3.5 1.0 2.2

Potatoes 72,969 4,942 14.8 3.2 4.3 3.8 2.4 2.9 2.7 0.8 1.3 1.1

Tomatoes 42,390 881 48.1 1.4 8.2 4.8−0.1 4.9 2.4 1.5 3.1 2.3

Cabbages 28,784 852 33.8 1.7 6.3 4.0 0.3 4.1 2.2 1.4 2.1 1.8

Soybeans 15,202 8,944 1.7 2.1 1.5 1.8 −1.0 0.6 −0.2 3.1 0.9 2.0

Groundnuts 14,938 4,405 3.4 6.8 4.0 5.4 3.4 1.5 2.4 3.3 2.4 2.8

Bananas 8,966 364 24.7 7.4 10.0 8.7 5.7 8.2 7.0 1.5 1.6 1.6

Cassava 4,533 275 16.5 5.1 0.9 2.9 3.9 0.6 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.7

Barley 2,554 690 3.7 −2.2 −0.4 −1.3 −5.7 −1.9−3.8 3.8 1.6 2.6

a 1 = 1984–86 vs 1961–63; 2 = 2008–10 vs 1984–86; 3 = 2008–10 vs 1961–63 where the average annual

growth rate is calculated as follows Beginning 3�year averageEnding 3�year average

� � 1Number of years between beginning and endmid�points � 1

� �� 100

Source: FAOSTAT (consulted January 2012) and calculations for this study

138 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156

in the mid-1960s, stagnated through the 1970s, then recovered in the 1980s throughthe late 1990s, only to fall once again since then (Fig. 2, Table 2), albeit with thepreviously mentioned caveat (see Appendix). Still, when considered collectively,ACGRs for area harvested in potato show a long-term upward trend (Fig. 2).

Average potato yields in China increased by 60% over the last half centuryfrom 9 Mg/ha in 1961–1963 to 14.8 Mg/ha even as area harvested more thantripled. Notwithstanding, the evolution of ACGRS for average potato yields inChina has followed a narrower range and at times run counter to those for areaplanted (Table 2). Growth rates for yields speeded up in the 1960s even as growthrates for area harvested slowed considerably. Then from the late 1960s to the late1970s, they fell—actually turning negative—as area harvested in potatoes expanded.From the mid-1980s to the early 2000s, ACGRs for yields accelerated again. Over thelast decade, however, growth rates for average annual yields slowed once again(Fig. 3). It apparently became increasingly difficult to improve productivity at afaster pace, at higher levels of output per hectare, over a much larger land area undercultivation, and further compounded by the latest surge in area harvested. As a result,the estimated long-term trend in the ACGRs for potato productivity is decidedlydecelerating (Fig. 3).

At the same time, major differences between yields in different provinces becamethat much more apparent (Fig. 4). A relatively small percentage of highly market-oriented, more technically advanced farm units typically located in provinces on theeastern seaboard (e.g., Anhui, Guangdong, Jilin, and Shandong) reportedly harvest upto double the national average yields—at least some over a shorter vegetative cycle(i.e., 4 months instead of the five or six elsewhere)—thanks in part to more fertilesoils and better access to improved technology (Fig. 5). In contrast, the more typical,resource-poor growers located in more isolated, inland provinces manage to dig moremodest quantities at best as their cultural practices are constrained by capricious

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prod

uctio

n (M

illio

n M

g)

Ave

rage

ann

ual c

ompo

und

grow

th r

ate

(%)

ACGRs (%) for potato production calculated on a moving 10-year basis

Production (Million Mg)

Estimated trend for AGCRs for potato production

y = -0.0038x + 11.28R²= 0.0003ns

Fig. 1 Potato production and ACGRs for production in China, 1961–2010. Data points for the ACGRS aretaken from Table 2, the ACGRs are calculated on a moving 10-year interval basis; see Table 2 for details; nsR2 for the estimated trend line is not significant. Source: FAOSTAT and calculations for this study

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156 139

Table 2 Average compound growth rates (ACGRs) for potatoes in China, 1961-2010a

Years Production Area Yield

R² ACGR(%)

Significance R² ACGR(%)

Significance R² ACGR(%)

Significance

1961–1971 0.91 6.1 –c 0.84 4.5 –c 0.30 1.5 –a

1962–1972 0.92 6.3 –c 0.85 4.1 –c 0.62 2.2 –c

1963–1973 0.94 7.1 –c 0.70 3.2 –c 0.75 3.7 –c

1964–1974 0.95 6.2 –c 0.50 2.1 –b 0.76 4.0 –c

1965–1975 0.90 5.1 –c 0.35 1.3 –a 0.71 3.7 –c

1966–1976 0.73 4.0 –c 0.08 0.4 n.s. 0.66 3.5 –c

1967–1977 0.73 3.9 –c 0.03 0.3 n.s. 0.67 3.6 –c

1968–1978 0.72 3.8 –c 0.13 0.6 n.s. 0.61 3.2 –c

1969–1979 0.58 2.7 –c 0.25 1.0 n.s. 0.28 1.7 –a

1970–1980 0.41 1.8 –b 0.23 0.9 n.s. 0.09 0.9 n.s.

1971–1981 0.17 1.0 n.s. 0.31 1.2 –a 0.00 −0.2 n.s.

1972–1982 0.04 0.4 n.s. 0.41 1.4 –b 0.12 −1.0 n.s.

1973–1983 0.03 0.3 n.s. 0.86 2.3 –c 0.49 −1.9 –b

1974–1984 0.22 1.0 n.s. 0.85 2.2 –c 0.27 −1.2 n.s.

1975–1985 0.29 1.1 –a 0.83 2.1 –c 0.20 −1.0 n.s.

1976–1986 0.08 0.6 n.s. 0.83 2.1 –c 0.38 −1.5 –b

1977–1987 0.00 −0.1 n.s. 0.83 1.9 –c 0.55 −1.9 –c

1978–1988 0.12 0.8 n.s. 0.90 1.7 –c 0.19 −0.9 n.s.

1979–1989 0.49 1.8 –b 0.89 1.9 –c 0.01 −0.2 n.s.

1980–1990 0.60 2.2 –c 0.91 2.1 –c 0.01 0.1 n.s.

1981–1991 0.62 2.3 –c 0.92 2.2 –c 0.01 0.1 n.s.

1982–1992 0.64 3.0 –c 0.96 2.5 –c 0.06 0.5 n.s.

1983–1993 0.66 4.4 –c 0.96 2.6 –c 0.28 1.7 –a

1984–1994 0.78 5.5 –c 0.98 2.8 –c 0.48 2.6 –b

1985–1995 0.88 6.5 –c 0.97 3.1 –c 0.69 3.3 –c

1986–1996 0.92 7.4 –c 0.95 3.6 –c 0.77 3.7 –c

1987–1997 0.92 7.6 –c 0.94 3.8 –c 0.77 3.7 –c

1988–1998 0.92 8.0 –c 0.94 4.1 –c 0.77 3.8 –c

1989–1999 0.91 7.9 –c 0.96 4.7 –c 0.53 3.0 –b

1990–2000 0.91 7.9 –c 0.98 5.4 –c 0.40 2.3 –b

1991–2001 0.87 7.2 –c 0.99 5.6 –c 0.21 1.5 n.s.

1992–2002 0.89 5.9 –c 0.97 5.3 –c 0.07 0.6 n.s.

1993–2003 0.86 4.9 –c 0.90 4.6 –c 0.02 0.3 n.s.

1994–2004 0.85 4.8 –c 0.82 3.8 –c 0.20 1.0 n.s.

1995–2005 0.80 3.9 –c 0.79 3.2 –c 0.12 0.7 n.s.

1996–2006 0.21 1.6 n.s. 0.44 1.8 –b 0.01 −0.2 n.s.

1997–2007 0.07 0.8 n.s. 0.20 1.0 n.s. 0.01 −0.2 n.s.

1998–2008 0.04 0.6 n.s. 0.05 0.4 n.s. 0.01 0.2 n.s.

140 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156

weather patterns, limited or no access to credit (Dong et al. 2010), and the small (i.e.,the vast majority of growers harvest 1 ha or less of potatoes) rain-fed plots thatpreempt capturing any economies of scale (Xie et al. 2007). Avery few large corporatefarms have sprung up in a small number of locations adjacent to and often benefittingfrom the establishment of new processing or seed-producing facilities (Delleman 2009).These diverse trends suggest ample room for improvements in productivity.

Table 2 (continued)

Years Production Area Yield

R² ACGR(%)

Significance R² ACGR(%)

Significance R² ACGR(%)

Significance

1999–2009 0.11 1.0 n.s. 0.04 0.3 n.s. 0.12 0.7 n.s.

2000–2010 0.06 0.7 n.s. 0.08 0.5 n.s. 0.01 0.2 n.s.

Average compound growth rates were calculated using the following expression: Y ¼ b0eb1 t , i.e., ln(Y)0 ln(b0)+b1t; ACGR0[exp(b1)−1]×100, where, Y0variables (production, area, or yield) and ln0natural log.Source: FAOSTAT (consulted January 2012) and calculations for this study

n.s. not significanta Significant at 10% levelb Significant at 5% levelc Significant at 1% level

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Are

a (

mill

ion

ha)

Ave

rage

ann

ual c

ompo

und

grow

th r

ate

(%

)

ACGRs (%) for area harvested calculated on a moving 10-yr basisArea (millon ha)Estimated trend for ACGRs for area harvested

y = 0.0260x - 49.26R² = 0.0398**

Fig. 2 Area harvested for potato and ACGRs for area in China, 1961–2010. Data points for the ACGRs aretaken from Table 2; see Table 2 for details. Double asterisks R2 for the estimated trend line is significant atthe 1% level. Source: FAOSTAT and calculations for this study

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156 141

Among the developing countries of Asia, China alone accounts for over 50%of regional output and 55% of area harvested. Moreover, China was responsiblefor roughly half of the increase in regional production and area under potatosince 1961–1963. Still, for the years 1961–1963, China actually harvested over65% of output and 63% of area under cultivation (Anonymous 1995). In otherwords, as impressive as the growth in potato production and area harvested have beenin China over the last half century, other developing countries in Asia—most notablyIndia and Bangladesh (Scott and Suarez 2011)—have witnessed faster growth rates inpotato output in recent years leading to a decline in China’s share of regional andglobal output over the last decade.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Yie

ld (

Mg/

ha)

Ave

rage

ann

ual g

row

th r

ate

(%)

ACGRs (%) for yield/ha calculated on a moving 10-year basisYield (Mg/ha)Estimated trend for ACGRs for potato yields

y= -0.03001x + 60.98R²= 0.0374**

Fig. 3 Yield/hectare for potato and ACGRs for yields in China, 1961–2010. Data points for the ACGRsare taken from Table 2; see Table 2 for details. Double asterisks R2 for the estimated trend line is significantat the 1% level. Source: FAOSTAT and calculations for this study

Fig. 4 Estimated share of crop area and average yields for potato by province in China, 2005. Source: Xieet al. 2007

142 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156

Growth Rates for Potatoes Versus Other Major Food Crops

Over the last nearly 50 years, the average annual growth rate for potato production(3.8%) in China has been noticeably higher than that for rice (2.3%), far above thatfor sweet potatoes (0.0%), and noticeably less than the rates for maize (4.8%) andwheat (4.2%; Table 1). While growth rates for potatoes were highest among all thefive major food crops in China during the period 1984–1986 to 2008–2010, since2000 ACGRs for potatoes actually slowed considerably (Fig. 1). In contrast, growthrates for a select number of other crops such as maize were much more robust. Thus,as potato output increased by 9% from 2000–2002 to 2008–2010, maize productionregistered an increase of 48% and in relation to a much larger volume [FAO StatisticalDatabase (FAOSTAT), consulted January 2012] adding further evidence to suggest acomplex pattern for growth in potato production in China than might first appearapparent.

Discussion

On the basis of the evolution of the growth rates identified above, potato outputin China might be better understood as having gone through four distinctphases over the last 49 years. A diverse mix of factors including governmentpolicy in different dimensions (i.e., production, trade, and investment) and at

Fig. 5 Area harvested and average yields for potatoes by region in China. NB Regional borders and cropdata are intended only as illustrative approximations. Source: Adopted from https://research.cip.cgiar.org/confluence/display/wpa/China, consulted 23 August 2011, and Jansky et al. 2009

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156 143

different levels (village, province, and national), tastes and preferences ofconsumers, investment by the private sector both foreign and domestic as wellas the shifting priorities of growers themselves all contributed to these trends ineach of these phases.

During the first or what might be called the “famine recovery” phase 1961–1973,hunger at the farm level in the wake of the famines of 1959 and 1961 and the severefood shortages resulting from the failures of the Great Leap Forward (1958–1960)spurred greater potato output into the 1960s (Gitomer 1996). Output rose nearly 50%between 1961 and 1966 then by 50% again by 1973. The chaos in the countrysidethat came as a by-product of the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976) impacted agricul-tural production in subsequent years, although it is not clear the extent to which actualpotato output was affected versus systematic underreporting to comply with produc-tion quotas for basic grains—a situation further complicated by the disbanding of thegovernment statistical service and its national agricultural production survey teamover the years 1966–1970 (Ibid.).

During the second or what might be called the “self-reliance” phase, revisedproduction data show that potato output practically stagnated from 1974 to 1987[although FAO times series data presented by Horton (1988) indicate levels that areconsiderably higher from 1973 forward reaching almost double the current revisedfigures for 1980–1981; Stone (1984) estimated white (sic!) potato output at 47million Mg in 1978]. The upheaval in daily life in the wake of the Cultural Revolu-tion combined with policies that based agricultural and rural development on thecommune, or collective responsibility, provided little in the way of incentives orsupport to increase production of potatoes. Throughout much of the 1970s, emphasisinstead was on “self-reliance” during a time in China often characterized as the“closed door” period (Keith 1983). In the agricultural sector, that meant emphasison self-sufficiency in the basic grains such as rice and wheat. Having repeatedlyexperienced famines in the recent past, increases in production of these commoditieswere mandated by government procurement policy focused on achieving food secur-ity for the basic staples as part of a broader policy environment—partly internally,partly external driven—that resulted in noteworthy restrictions on private trade infood commodities. In rural areas, village communes were responsible for meetingproduction quotas so that surplus basic foodstuffs could be assembled in the country-side then shipped for final use in the cities. State-run ration shops distributed foodallotments to urban consumers.

During the “self-reliance” policy regime, ACGRs for potato output and areaharvested collapsed, falling from 7.1 and 3.2% during 1963–1973 to 1.1 and 2.1%during 1975–1985, respectively (Table 2; Scott 1992). Potato production initiallydropped from 27 million Mg in 1973 to 23 million Mg in 1976. It never passed 28million Mg until 1988 (Fig. 1). Growth rates for potato production averaged 1% orless during much of this phase.

As a catalyst for the third or market “readjustment” phase (Walker 1984) from1988 to 2002, previous studies have contended that a significant jump in potatooutput took place after a shift in government policy towards one that permitted thehousehold responsibility system (HRS) in 1978 (e.g., Walker et al. 1999). Accordingto this view, greater freedom of decision making in terms of what to produce at thehousehold level meant farmers were now in a position to shift to greater attention to

144 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156

potato production as a means of improving incomes and in response to greater off-farm demand. Nevertheless, as Lin (1987) points out, these reforms first begansecretly at the local commune level, and then expanded with the blessing of localauthorities in one province. It was not until 1983 that over 94% of China’s ruralhouseholds came to adopt this practice as central government recognition of HRSonly came in 1981 (Ibid.).

Furthermore, available evidence suggests that HRS actually began to impactpotato producers around 1988 after production of the basic grains had expandedconsiderably and in response to changing urban consumption patterns (Xie etal. 2007), improvements in marketing infrastructure (i.e., roads), a relaxation ofcontrols on interregional trade in food commodities (Crook 1994; Dong and Fuller2007), and—years later still—a shift in land use policy that allowed farmers the rightto cultivate the same parcel for up to 30 years (Ezeta 2009). Government regulationsgoverning foreign direct investment also were partially liberalized beginning in theearly 1990s allowing equity joint ventures in retail trade for the first time (Hu et al.2004). McDonald’s opened its first restaurant in mainland China in 1990 as a jointventure with a Chinese partner (Watson 1997); it served 40,000 customers on day 1 ofoperations in Beijing in 1992 (Yan 1997). A US-based potato processing firm built aplant near Beijing in 1992 (Zhang et al. 1999). Most significantly, perhaps, beginningin the mid-1980s and culminating in 1993, the government gradually phased out foodrationing (Veeck and Veeck 2000; Gale and Huang 2007) allowing market forces toinfluence both demand and supply for food.

These various policy changes contributed towards a 25 million Mg increase inpotato output during 1993–2002 alone. During all of the third phase (1988 to 2002),annual potato production expanded by 39 million Mg, or over 63% of the entireincrease in output over nearly the last half century. Notwithstanding, as recent as2000 at least some local Chinese officials in Sichuan province—a major potato-growing province in China—continued to speak in terms of “official” versus “real”(and higher) potato area while attempting to attribute such differences to suchdiverse reasons as tax evasion—in recent years, potatoes reportedly have generatedhigher net incomes than many other crops (Jansky et al. 2009), difficulties in monitoringoutput in mixed cropping systems, and limited space on crop census forms (Hijmans2001).

From 2003 to 2010, during the fourth or what might be called the “post-global-ization” phase, output of potatoes first plummeted from 70 million Mg in 2002 to 54million Mg in 2006, before rebounding to nearly 75 million Mg in 2010 (Fig. 1)—although Xie (2008a) reports a less severe downturn in 2006 (see Appendix). Variousfactors contributed to the combination of stagnation, implosion, and then recovery inoutput during this last decade.

The overall lower growth rate in potato production since 2003 appears partly toreflect shifts in consumer demand and growers’ response to these changes. Asincomes continued to improve, consumption of meat, dairy products, and fruitcaptured greater consumer interest—similar to the past experience of other develop-ing countries that witnessed comparable growth in per capita incomes (Alexandratos2008). Feed requirements assumed greater importance for policymakers as a result(Rae 2008). While potato production grew only modestly between 2000 and 2010,maize output rose by 55% to over 178 million Mg (FAOSTAT, consulted 15 July

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156 145

2011). The surge in maize output and soybean imports appears to be driven by in aneffort to feed more poultry and dairy cattle as well as assist in the modernization ofChina’s livestock production more generally (Rae 2008). Industrialized feedstuffswere increasingly substituted for backyard feed sources including potatoes andfollowing a similar pattern observed in Western Europe some 60 years earlier (Horton1987, p. 19). These factors may also help explain the decline in ACGRs for areaharvested in potatoes as well as the apparent decline in the use of potatoes forlivestock feed more generally throughout the country (Scott and Suarez 2012).

The sharp drop in output in 2006 was apparently due in part as well to acombination of pest and disease outbreaks. Severe attacks of late blight hit Sichuan,Chongqing, and Hubei provinces (Xie et al. 2007). Parts of Sichuan province alsowere adversely affected by bacterial wilt (Ibid.). Futhermore, according to Xie(2008a), a serious drought in Shanxi province resulted in yields some 40% belowthe national average that implicitly had a corresponding effect on provincial potatooutput as well. These agroclimatic considerations raise questions about the possiblecontribution of precipitation trends to the recent level and long-term evolution of potatoproduction in China.

Considerable differences prevail between the level of precipitation in certain northernand central provinces (Regions I and II, Fig. 5) that in general are far more dependenton rainfall and tube wells for crop production (Xie et al. 2007) than the wetter andoften irrigated fields more typically found in the southern provinces (Regions III andIV). Within that overall context, a preliminary analysis of the trend in annual averageannual rainfall levels shows no dramatic drop in rainfall in selected provinces acrossthe nation in 2006 (Table 3) that might help explain the fall in production and areaharvested that year (Figs. 1 and 2). Instead, these data show bountiful rainfall in someyears (e.g., 1992) followed by much lower precipitation the following year or note-worthy drops in certain provinces while other went less affected (e.g., 1997 and2003). It therefore appears that total annual rainfall had a much more localized effecton potato production (e.g., Shanxi province) in 2006 (Xie et al. 2007).

More paradoxically, several major potato-producing provinces (e.g., Gansu,Heilongjiang, and Inner Mongolia) witnessed noteworthy shortfalls in totalannual rainfall repeatedly during the new millennium (Table 3) when potatoproduction surged ahead (Fig. 1). It may well be that as the lower rainfall becamemore recurrent in these provinces in the 2000s, the rate of growth in potato productionbecame more difficult to sustain, in effect, contributing to the slowdown in ACGRsover the last decade. While these shortfalls represent provincial averages that includemeteorological stations at different altitudes when potato production may well beconcentrated at higher elevations with greater rainfall, they are consistent with reportsof the proliferation of tube wells, the need to dig ever deeper to access water, and thedeclining water table in many parts of northern China where potatoes are cultivated(Xie et al. 2007). Similarly, an initial analysis of within-year rainfall patterns based ondata for Inner Mongolia province, as but one example, showed slight shifts in thedistribution of rainfall from June through August in a few years (e.g., 1992, 1997, and2008), but a much more noteworthy lower level of annual rainfall in the 2000s than inthe 1990s (Fig. 6 and Table 3). Given the complexity of the interaction betweenrainfall and potato production in a country the size of China, a more definitiveanalysis of precipitation and potato production may well make an interesting topic

146 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156

for future research, particularly in light of the possible effect of climate change(Hijmans 2003).

By 2006–2007, a dual pattern of potato production emerged in sharper relief inChina. Some 80% of China’s potato output is harvested in the poorer, predominantlyinland, northern (Region I, single cropping for use and/or sale as seed, in processedproducts, and food) and southwestern provinces (Region IV, mixed single andcropping for seed, in processed products, and food) (Walker et al. 1999; Xie et al.2007; Jansky et al. 2009; Fig. 5). In these locations, greater potato production appearsdriven by a desire to consume more potatoes both on the farm and to generate cashincome through sales of part of the harvest in nearby as well as more distant urbanmarkets (Xie et al. 2007). Along parts of the eastern seaboard (Region II, doublecropping frequently for domestic sale or export)—but far more modest in terms of

Table 3 Average annual rainfall (millimeters) for selected provinces in China, 1990–2009

Year Province

Yunnan Sichuan Shaanxi Heilongjiang Inner Mongolia Gansu

X StdDev

X StdDev

X StdDev

X StdDev

X StdDev

X StdDev

1990 1,141 298 978 289 796 298 572 124 375 163 256 234

1991 1,206 355 1,055 389 585 170 664 123 364 161 191 163

1992 1,259 315 1,235 417 1,155 235 923 229 748 302 468 372

1993 1,121 263 1,129 331 672 293 629 96 378 202 333 288

1994 1,282 344 1,031 348 772 135 778 188 445 239 313 208

1995 1,209 250 999 418 549 195 524 123 319 113 207 156

1996 1,116 267 913 310 699 246 539 77 339 140 235 217

1997 1,201 254 859 272 481 130 548 125 280 150 193 180

1998 1,082 280 1,190 269 723 240 631 138 436 192 245 222

1999 n.a. – n.a. – n.a. – n.a. – n.a. – n.a. –

2000 1,186 327 1,054 304 676 338 554 154 280 125 248 188

2001 1,295 291 1,051 331 682 26 420 107 271 123 250 222

2002 1,199 314 975 264 714 79 600 124 309 119 241 174

2003 925 234 1,068 328 858 293 576 164 358 162 297 295

2004 1,129 285 1,048 293 638 200 511 133 300 129 212 193

2005 1,043 316 1,043 315 718 344 534 116 243 140 265 236

2006 1,089 349 852 262 597 172 592 113 278 132 249 232

2007 1,151 251 1,056 364 698 185 483 136 239 87 280 183

2008 1,232 348 1,077 342 816 332 521 85 328 121 222 192

2009 920 297 987 342 748 191 625 94 248 130 210 180

Annual average data reported by 9 weather stations in Yunnan, 12 in Sichuan, 9 in Shaanxi, 17 inHeilongjiang, 32 in Inner Mongolia, and 9 in Gansu province. Source: Research Informatics Unit, CIP asobtained from NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) 2012. Global surfacesummary of day version 8 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/res40.pl

n.a. not available due to incomplete data series for that year

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156 147

total production, potato output aims to meet strong urban demand for fresh vegetablesincluding potatoes (Ahmadi-Esfahani and Stanmore 1997; Liu and Chern 2003; Xieet al. 2007; Wang and Zhang 2010) and to supply a relatively modest (300,000 Mg/year, FAOSTAT consulted 16 August 2011), but growing export trade. A fewenclaves of production for processing for French fries (AAFC 2004), flakes (http://www.entrepreneur.com/tradejournals/article/163394350.html, consulted 19 August2011), and seed (Delleman 2009) have emerged in different locations most notablyin the northern provinces where larger land areas can be consolidated to capturegreater economies of scale in production and rural assembly, growing conditions forprocessing varieties are similar to those found in Europe and North America (Janskyet al. 2009), and local authorities appear more ready and able to work out jointventures with foreign firms (Xie et al. 2007).

Changes in Utilization

Per capita potato consumption in China has risen to over 30 kg/year (Fig. 7), withover half of that total coming since 1994–1995 due to the boom in domesticproduction (Xie et al. 2007). Despite the notoriety that the advent and spread offoreign quick service restaurants (Pacific Vision 1995; Watson 1997; Pingali 2006;Curtis et al. 2007) and their associated processor suppliers have generated (Guenthner2001; AAFC 2004; Brown 2004), the vast bulk of potato utilization in China stillappears to be in fresh form and for on-farm consumption (Table 4) as potatoes serveas both a complementary vegetable for many growers and a food security crop for thepoorest farm units (Woolfe 1987; Xie et al. 2007). As most processing for humanconsumption and as feed still takes place at the farm level and the vast majority ofpotato producers cultivate a hectare or less of the crop, the estimated volumes ofpotatoes dedicated to different uses in general, but to production of starch and

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

June July August

mm/month

Fig. 6 Average rainfall in June, July, and August in Inner Mongolia, 1990–2009. Data reported by 32meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia; 1999 not included due to incomplete data series for that year.Source: Research Informatics Unit, CIP as obtained from NOAA (National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration) 2012. Global surface summary of day version 8 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/res40.pl

148 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156

livestock in particular, for on-farm use are hard to pin down (Scott and Suarez 2012).Potato consumption has reportedly increased in urban areas as consumers diversifiedtheir diets away from an overwhelming dependence on the basic cereals (Wu et al.1995; Dong and Fuller 2007), but the remarkably few estimates of per capita potatointake derived from official government surveys (see, e.g., Wang and Zhang 2010)are hard to interpret given the shortage of historical information to put these figuresinto perspective. Many of these studies refer to survey results that are now over10 years old (e.g., Liu and Chern 2003).

Different sources also appear to use different categories for potato utilization.Jansky et al. (2009) cite Li et al. (2004) that calculates some 45% of output goes totable stock and 21% is used for starch and other processed products for humanconsumption. The breakdown of Xie et al. (2007) of potato utilization is closer toestimates generated by FAO which includes processing for use as food (Tables 4),e.g., noodles as part of human consumption. Hence, the consensus is that potatoconsumption and utilization are growing in China, but which uses and by how muchin total are harder to quantify precisely (Scott and Suarez 2012).

Table 4 Food balance sheets for potatoes in China, 1961–2007

Uses 1961–1963(000 Mg)

% 1976–1978(000 Mg)

% 1991–1993(000 Mg)

% 2005–2007(000 Mg)

%

Food 7,706 59 11,295 44 16,630 43 44,648 70

Feed 2,299 18 7,951 31 8,446 22 6,188 10

Seed 1,264 10 2,003 8 2,735 7 2,452 4

Processing 1,038 8 3,072 12 8,430 22 6,812 11

Othera 650 5 1,305 5 2,208 6 3,667 6

Total domesticavailable supply

12,957 100 25,626 100 38,450 100 63,767 100

Source: FAOSTAT (consulted August 2011) and calculations for this studya According to FAOSTAT “other uses” refers to “waste” and “other uses,” although in previous years, itreferred only to waste (Horton 1988; Anonymous 1995)

0

10

20

30

40

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

kg/capita/yr

Fig. 7 Average annual per capita consumption of potatoes in China, 1961–2007. Source: FAOSTAT(consulted August 2011)

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156 149

Past Projections and Future Scenarios

In light of these various trends, earlier FAO short-term projections (Anonymous1995) for growth rates in production (2.92 vs. 7.0% observed), area (2.09 vs.4.35% observed), and yields (0.80 vs. 2.3% observed) for the period 1988–2000were far too conservative. Alternatively, Wang and Zhang (2004) also used FAO datato generate a more recent short-term projection that China’s annual potato productionwould reach 78 million Mg in 2009. That estimate now appears to have been toooptimistic. Similarly, China’s current national plan for potatoes calls for area har-vested to reach 8 million ha in 2015 (Delleman 2009) and output to get to 150 millionMg or more. At the current time, such production targets would appear to be ratherambitious.

Longer-term projections for production, area, and yields for the period 1993 to2020 developed using FAO data have also proved too modest. Estimated totals of63.4 million Mg and 3.2 million ha according to the baseline scenario (Scott et al.2000) had already been surpassed in 2008–2010 (Thiele et al. 2010; Table 1). The87.8 million Mg and 3.7 million ha projected according to the high demand scenario(Scott et al. 2000) are either within reach (output) or already been exceeded (area). Asfor future production, an annual average growth rate of 1.7%/year over the next11 years would culminate in the previously projected total for 87.8 million Mg ofpotatoes in 2020. More interesting perhaps at this point in time are the possiblealternative scenarios going beyond that date.

Potato production in China confronts a host of major constraints. These include:technical (poor-quality seed, limited genetic base for generating new varieties, andpests and diseases most notably late blight, see Jansky et al. 2009), natural resource(declining water tables combined with more erratic and lower rainfall particularly inthe northern provinces, rising temperatures as a result of climate change, and pollu-tion of major rivers that serve as a source of irrigation, see Fuglie 2007; Xie et al.2007), institutional (land tenure that confines the vast majority of some 5 millionpotato farmers to cultivating 1 ha or less of the crop; weak producer associations tocapture economies of scale in the purchase of inputs, sale of outputs, standardizationof quality; the heterogeneous interpretation of government policies and regulationsgoverning food production, processing, and marketing at the provincial, county, andvillage and township level), and economic (uncertainty about the future policies thataffect the potato sector including rural-to-urban migration, the differences betweenrural and urban incomes and the capacity of different households to purchase differenttypes of food, and the willingness and/or the incentives offered to foreign investors tocontinue to expand operations in China bringing with them in the process newtechnology to help modernize the sector).

A more pessimistic scenario would have these constraints confine the future pathof potato production to one of low growth or stagnation as the sector receivesrelatively less priority than livestock, dairy, or fruit given greater consumer demandfor these commodities, the sheer magnitude of the sector in relation to past levels ofoutput in relation to the resources available to catalyze growth across multiple sectorssimultaneously, and the limited ability of private firms to spearhead faster growthunder these circumstances. As one corollary to this scenario, output estimates arereset to lower levels following previous precedent whereby data for potato production

150 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156

in China were revised sharply downward on earlier occasions (Stone 1984; Horton1988). A second corollary to this scenario sees output stagnate due to two factors: (1)current output levels preclude the growth rates once possible when total productionwas much lower and (2) recurrent droughts and weak progress to overcome majorpests and diseases the multiplication of which becomes accelerated by rising temper-atures due to climate change (Hijmans 2001; Makin 2004). Furthermore, the dis-economies of small farm agriculture are intensified due to further shrinkage in farmsize as more arable land is swallowed up by growing urban sprawl and slow, butsteady population growth in the countryside compounding the difficulties of stream-lining supply chains through more effective coordination, for example, betweengrowers and processors (Guenthner 2001, p. 188; Hu et al. 2004). Income distributionbecomes more unequal stifling the growth of demand for food in general (Gale 2006;Gale and Huang 2007) and for potatoes and potato products in particular beyondpotential saturation achieved among the wealthiest urban consumers in China.

A more optimistic scenario points to the success of Chinese agriculture in over-coming past constraints as an indicator of the country’s capacity to respond to thearray of challenges facing the potato sector today. In so doing, the sector hasdemonstrated a willingness to experiment, even not succeed with certain technologiessuch as TPS (Almekinders et al. 2009), only to try something else like minituberproduction (van Loon 2007; Delleman 2009) to address the same constraint. Accord-ing to this scenario, the pragmatism of policymakers, potato farmers, and entrepre-neurs proves remarkably resilient despite the formidable constraints they face. Withthe establishment of the new National Centre for Potato Research in Beijing incollaboration with the International Potato Center (Keane 2010), the governmenthas made a conspicuous commitment to increasing potato production and improvingproductivity through the development and dissemination of improved technology, inparticular drought-and-disease-tolerant varieties, as part of a national effort to meetfood requirements for China’s ever expanding population. These efforts are seen asbeing buoyed by sustained rapid expansion of the private sector in the production ofimproved quality planting material; the more ecologically friendly use of productioninputs in light of Chinese consumers increasing concerns about food quality, safety,and health (Curtis et al. 2007; Gale and Huang 2007); and efforts by supermarketchains to improve traceability (Hu et al. 2004), bringing revitalized producers’associations and their membership into the process. The untapped agroecologicalpotential for potatoes in the “…about 30 million ha of winter fallow paddy fields inthe south” (Xie 2008a) and in Tibet (Gitomer 1996; Scott 2002) is more fullyrealized. Revised statistics on potatoes in China capture significant quantities ofproduction and area harvested heretofore unaccounted for in national annual year-books and international databases (see Appendix). The boom in the fastfood sectorand snack industry flourishes as supply chain bottlenecks are overcome, new pro-cessing varieties are released, and domestic as well as foreign investment in potatoesin China continues (Scott and Suarez 2012). These outcomes are seen as facilitated bythe spread of communications networks accelerating the diffusion of improvedtechnology at the farm level and the innovations forthcoming through the enthusiasticembrace of biotechnology (Vreugdenhil 2007). As a corollary to the optimisticscenario, government efforts to reduce income inequality and promote the potato’snutritional attributes also serve to boost demand for fresh potatoes.

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156 151

Based on historical tendencies and a revised appraisal of the factors contributing topotato production in China, neither stagnation nor roaring growth in output seemsprobable. Instead, given the countervailing factors, production seems most likely toexpand at an average rate in the range 1.75–2.0% in the coming years.

In addition to addressing the technical constraints previously documented (Fuglie2007; Xie et al. 2007; Jansky et al. 2009), much of literature on potato production inChina speaks in terms of two types of potato systems: one very small scale and theother very large scale. Topics for future socioeconomic research related to potatoproduction would include estimates of the economies of scale in potato productionand processing using different technologies. Farm size required to minimize productioncosts may be much smaller than the megaprojects that appear very much in vogue mightsuggest. It may also be that as the potato sector evolves, a series of segments may openup that offer opportunities for more small-scale entrepreneurs as the case of peeled andcut potatoes as a local substitute for imported frozen French fries in Peru illustrates(Scott and Zelada 2011) or the interest in organic potatoes (Xie 2008b) might suggest.Furthermore, while considerable research effort has been expended in analysingurban consumers’ eating habits and expenditures (Ma et al. 2006; Wang and Zhang2010), much less is known about the distribution of potato uses once the tubers areharvested, i.e., how much is consumed in fresh form, how much is actually processedinto starch, and how much is sold. These results would help provide insights into theevolution of potato production, yields, and consumption in the countryside as anempirical basis for reassessing prospects going into the future. Finally, many of theissues mentioned above involve social science topics. Given that, one would hopethat the development strategy of the new research centre on potatoes in China wouldfind room for addressing them by including provisions for recruiting social scientistswith similar experience and training as their biological counterparts.

Acknowledgments We are grateful to Henry Juarez of CIP’s Research Informatics Unit for sharing thedata on rainfall in China and for the revised map of potato production in China.

Appendix. Some background on statistics on potato production in China

Statistics on potato production in China have repeatedly been subject to both scrutinyand major revisions (Horton et al. 1984; Stone 1984; Horton 1988; Scott 1992;Anonymous 1995; Gitomer 1996; Scott et al. 2000; Wang and Zhang 2004; Xie etal. 2007; Xie 2008a). Part of that scrutiny has been driven by the concern about theaccuracy of statistics on potato production and area harvested in developing countriesin general. It also has emerged in the context of discussing trends for potatoes inindustrialized versus developing countries (Scott 2002).

In the developing country context, it has been frequently argued that potatoproduction and/or area and yields may be underreported because the crop is oftengrown by small farmers, in isolated production zones, in multiple cropping or relaycropping patterns, intercropped with other commodities such as maize, and charac-terized by staggered harvests in the same field (Horton 1988). In addition, a largeshare of output is often used for on-farm consumption and therefore is not traded tothe same degree as other food commodities in either domestic or export markets.

152 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156

Given these circumstances, informed observers have contended that potatoes havenot gotten nearly the attention of market monitors or tax authorities—hence, ulti-mately government statisticians—as the cereals, e.g., rice, wheat, or maize (Horton1981). Consequently, potato production and consumption run the risk of beingunderreported and therefore the importance of the crop underestimated by policy-makers, planners, and research administrators. At least one FAO specialist has notedthat many of the same considerations apply to other crops and livestock in developingcountries. Nevertheless, many of these concerns about the accuracy of agriculturaland specifically potato statistics apply in the case of China (Walker et al. 1999) wheregiven the vast size of the country, millions of growers, limited government budgets,and periodic profound changes in public administration the task of monitoring output,area planted, and yields are formidable indeed.

In the case of potatoes in China, the issue is further complicated by the fact that thetuber has long been treated as a “grain” crop by those authorities charged withcompiling agricultural statistics (Gitomer 1996; Scott 2002; Wang and Zhang2004). Furthermore, the method for converting potato production to grain equivalentshas varied over time and from province to province (Xie et al. 2007). In addition, therichness of language in China and the various regional dialects mean that the cropgoes by a multitude of names (Stone 1984) thereby raising at least the possibility ofmiscounting due to mislabeling. As evidence that labels matter, from 2003 to 2006provincial potato output in Shandong province was not included in the tabulation andreporting of potato production in the annual Chinese Agricultural Yearbook (Xie2008a) apparently because the crop was re-categorized by provincial authorities as avegetable and no longer considered a food crop for statistical purposes. Xie et al.(2007) report that the same practice has occurred in a number of other provinces (e.g.,Guangxi, Henan, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang). Moreover, the political and economicpressure on farmers and local and provincial authorities to meet production targetsfor basic staples such as rice and wheat during the period of China’s Soviet-stylecommune system from 1958 to 1978 (Gitomer 1996; Wang and Zhang 2004)–notunlike those observed earlier in some industrialized countries (Scott 2002)–haveraised at least the possibility that potatoes along with other crops that fell outsidethe system of central planning may have gone underreported during that time. Lastly,in recent years, the profitability of the potato crop (Xie 2008a) has generated tax-related incentives to fudge farm-level figures for area harvested.

In the context of these various considerations, FAO data on potato production inChina underwent substantial revisions in 1978 and again in 1983 (Horton 1987). FAOtime series data for potato production in China published in Horton (1988) underwentanother major revision shortly thereafter with previous estimates of output cut sig-nificantly again. Still in his recent report, Xie (2008a) presents annual statistics forproduction, area, and yield of potatoes in China 1961–2006 in which FAO data arelisted for the years 1961 to 1981. Comparing the current FAO time series on potatoproduction on which this paper is based with national statistics for annual potatoproduction in China (Table 5) from 1982 to 2006 shows that the two data sets depict ahighly similar evolution over the period 1982–2005 suggesting that a certain con-sensus has emerged regarding the statistics from 1961 to 2005. FAO data are far moreconservative in their estimate of production, area, and yields in 2006, although insubsequent years they show output recovering (Fig. 1) to pre-2006 levels. In that

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156 153

sense, both sources depict a similar quasi-cyclical evolution of growth rates for potatoproduction over the last half century, albeit with very different levels of annual output atthe very end. However, in recent communications with potato scientists in China,reference was made to new revisions to official statistics for potato production, areaharvested, and yields for the last 10 years. This suggests the need for follow-up researchaimed at reconciling different data series for potato production for the most recent years.

References

AAFC (2004) Canadian potato situation and trends 2003–04. AAFC, OttawaAhmadi-Esfahani F, Stanmore R (1997) Demand for vegetables in a Chinese wholesale market. Agribusiness

13(5):549–559

Table 5 Potato production, area harvested, and yields in China 1982–2006, according to different sources

Year Production (000 Mg) Area (000 ha) Yield (Mg/ha)

1 2 1–2 1–2/2 (%) 1 2 1–2 1–2/2 (%) 1 2 1–2 1–2/2 (%)

1982 23,825 25,723 −1,898 −7.4 2,454 2,362 92 3.9 9.7 10.9 −1.2 −10.91983 25,275 27,812 −2,537 −9.1 2,562 2,445 117 4.8 9.9 11.4 −1.5 −13.01984 28,400 28,230 170 0.6 2,562 2,422 140 5.8 11.1 11.7 −0.6 −4.81985 26,750 26,793 −43 −0.2 2,478 2,480 −2 −0.1 10.8 10.8 −0.0 0.0

1986 26,520 25,041 1,479 5.9 2,510 2,502 8 0.3 10.6 10.0 0.6 5.9

1987 26,685 26,721 −36 −0.1 2,590 2,591 −1 0.0 10.3 10.3 −0.0 −0.11988 31,625 31,663 −38 −0.1 2,747 2,749 −2 −0.1 11.5 11.5 −0.0 −0.21989 31,055 31,096 −41 −0.1 2,823 2,824 −1 0.0 11.0 11.0 −0.0 −0.11990 34,550 32,031 2,519 7.9 2,865 2,829 36 1.3 12.1 11.3 0.8 6.9

1991 31,565 30,441 1,124 3.7 2,879 2,881 −2 −0.1 11.0 10.6 0.4 4.1

1992 37,435 37,826 −391 −1.0 2,995 2,996 −1 0.0 12.5 12.6 −0.1 −1.01993 46,040 45,942 98 0.2 3,087 3,089 −2 −0.1 14.9 14.9 0.0 0.2

1994 48,735 43,836 4,899 11.2 3,208 3,209 −1 0.0 15.2 13.7 1.5 11.3

1995 45,735 45,984 −249 −0.5 3,434 3,436 −2 −0.1 13.3 13.4 −0.1 −0.61996 52,995 53,079 −84 −0.2 3,736 3,740 −4 −0.1 14.2 14.2 0.0 0.0

1997 57,208 57,260 −52 −0.1 3,823 3,825 −2 −0.1 13.0 15.0 −2.0 −13.21998 56,263 64,618 −8,355 −12.9 4,062 4,064 −2 0.0 13.9 15.9 −2.0 −12.61999 56,096 56,141 −45 −0.1 4,418 4,421 −3 −0.1 12.7 12.7 0.0 0.0

2000 66,282 66,318 −36 −0.1 4,723 4,725 −2 0.0 14.0 14.0 −0.0 −0.22001 64,564 64,596 −32 0.0 4,719 4,721 −2 0.0 13.7 13.7 0.0 0.1

2002 70,082 70,223 −141 −0.2 4,698 4,669 29 0.6 14.9 15.0 −0.1 −0.92003 68,100 68,139 −39 −0.1 4,522 4,524 −2 0.0 15.1 15.1 0.0 0.3

2004 72,080 72,256 −176 −0.2 4,597 4,598 −1 0.0 15.7 15.7 −0.0 −0.12005 70,865 70,906 −41 −0.1 4,881 4,883 −2 0.0 14.5 14.5 −0.0 −0.22006 74,355 54,076 20,279 37.5 5,016 4,218 798 18.9 14.8 12.8 2.0 15.4

Source: 1 Xie 2008a; 2 FAOSTAT (consulted January 2012) and calculation for this study

154 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156

Alexandratos N (2008) Food price surges: possible causes, past experience, and longer term relevance.Popul Dev Rev 34(4):663–697

Almekinders C, Chujoy E, Thiele G (2009) The use of true potato seed as a pro-poor technology: the efforts ofan international agricultural research institute to innovating potato production. Potato Res 52:275–293

Anonymous (1995) Potatoes in the 1990s: situation and prospects of the world potato economy. FAO (Foodand Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) in collaboration with CIP (International PotatoCenter), Rome, Rome

Brown G (2004) Potatoes in China. Spudman (May):14–16CIP (1999) Potato facts. Processed. CIP, LimaCIP (2010) Potato facts. Processed. CIP, LimaCrook F (1994) Vegetable production and trade in China. USDA International and Trade Reports, China

Situation and Outlook Series 94(4):38–44Curtis K, McCluskey J, Wahl T (2007) Consumer preferences and Western style convenience foods in

China. China Econ Rev 18:1–14Delleman J (2009) Dutch company concludes mega order in China. Pot World 3:20–23Dong F, Fuller F (2007) Changing diets in China’s cities: empirical fact or urban legend? Working Paper

06-WP 437. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development. Iowa State University, AmesDong F, Lu J, Featherstone A (2010) Effect of credit constraints on productivity and rural household

incomes in China. Working Paper 10-WP 516. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development. IowaState University, Ames

Ezeta F (2009) Una visión a la expansión de la papa en Asia. Revista Latinoamericana de la Papa 15(1):1–11

FAO (2009) International year of the potato 2008: new light on a hidden treasure. An end of year review.FAO, Rome

Fuglie K (2007) Priorities for potato research in developing countries. Am J Potato Res 84:353–365Gale F (2006) Food expenditures by China’s high-income households. J Food Distrib Res 37(1):7–13Gale F, Huang K (2007) Demand for food quantity and quality in China. Economic research report no 32.

Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C.Gitomer CS (1996) Potato and sweetpotato in China: systems, constraints, and potential. International

Potato Center (CIP) and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), LimaGuenthner J (2001) The international potato industry. Woodhead, CambridgeHaase NU, Haverkort AJ (eds) (2006) Potato developments in a changing Europe. Wageningen Academic

Publishers, WageningenHijmans R (2001) Global distribution of the potato crop. Am J Potato Res 78:403–412Hijmans R (2003) The effect of climate change on global potato production. Am J Potato Res 80:271–280Horton D (1978) Potato atlas. International statistics on potato production and utilization. CIP, LimaHorton D (1981) A plea for the potato. Ceres 14(1):28–32Horton D (1987) Potatoes: production, marketing, and programs for developing countries. Westview Press,

BoulderHorton D (1988) Underground crops: long-term trends in production of roots and tubers. Winrock Interna-

tional, MorriltonHorton D, Lynam J, Knipscheer H (1984) Root crops in developing countries—an economic appraisal. In:

Scheidler F, Rincon H (eds) Proceedings of the Sixth Symposium of the International Society forTropical Root Crops, Lima, 21–26 February, CIP, Lima, pp. 9–39

Hu D, Reardon T, Rozelle S, Timmer P, Wang H (2004) Dev Policy Rev 22(5):557–586Jansky SH, Jin LP, Xie KY, Xie CH, Spooner DM (2009) Potato production and breeding in China. Potato

Res 52:57–65Keane L (2010) China pins hopes on humble potato. Washington Post May 31 2010 (www.washington

post.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/30/AR2010053003751.html). Accessed 05 Aug 2011Keith RC (1983) China’s modernization and the policy of self-reliance. China Rep 19(2):19–34Li Q, Xie C, Feng Z (2004) An analysis of the comparative advantages and export competitive capability of

potatoes in China. Chin Potato J 21(2):121–122Lin J (1987) The household responsibility system reform in China: a peasant’s institutional choice. Am J

Agric Econ 69(2):410–415Liu K, Chern W (2003) Food demand in urban China: an application of a multi-stage censored demand

system. Paper prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association annualmeeting, Montreal, Canada, July 27–30, 2003

Ma H, Huang J, Fuller F, Rozelle S (2006) Getting rich and eating out: consumption of food away fromhome in urban China. Can J Agric Econ 54:101–119

Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156 155

Makin I (2004) World water supplies: are they adequate? In: Xingxiang D (ed) Proceedings of the 5thWorld Potato Congress, Kunming, 26–30 March. Yunnan Fine Arts Publishing House, Kunming, pp40–43

Pacific Vision (1995) Market research for processed potato products in the People’s Republic of China.Report prepared for the U. S. Potato Board. Pacific Vision, Portland, OR

Pingali P (2006) Westernization of Asian diets and the transformation of food systems: implications forresearch and policy. Food Policy 32:281–298

Rae A (2008) China’s agriculture, smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution? Aust J AgricResour Econ 52:283–302

Scott G (1992) Transforming traditional food crops: product development for roots and tubers. In: Scott G,Wiersema S, Ferguson PI (eds) Product development for root and tuber crops. Vol. I-Asia. CIP, Lima,pp 3–20

Scott G (2002) Maps, models, and muddles: world trends and patterns in potato revisited. Potato Res45:45–77

Scott G (2011) Growth rates for potatoes in Latin America in comparative perspective: 1961–07. Am JPotato Res 88:143–152

Scott G, Suarez V (2011) Growth rates for potato in India 1961–2009 and their implications for industry.Potato J 38(2):100–112

Scott G, Suarez V (2012) From Mao to McDonald’s: emerging markets for potatoes and potato products inChina 1961–2007. Am J Potato Res 89(3):216–231

Scott G, Zelada F (2011) Benchmarking the competitiveness of informal food processors: the case ofFrench fries in Lima, Perú. Potato Res 54(1):29–44

Scott G, Rosegrant M, Ringler C (2000) Roots and tubers for the 21st century: trends, projections, andpolicy options. Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 31. IFPRI (InternationalFood Policy Research Institute) and CIP (International Potato Center), Washington, DC

Stone B (1984) An analysis of Chinese data on root and tuber production. China Q 99(September):594–630Thiele G, Theisen K, Bonierbale M, Walker T (2010) Targeting the poor and hungry with potato science.

Potato J 37(3–4):75–86Van der Zaag D, Horton D (1983) Potato production and utilization in world perspective with special

reference to the tropics and sub-tropics. Potato Res 26:323–362van Loon KD (2007) The seed potato market. In: Vreugdenhil D (ed) Potato biology and biotechnology.

Elsevier, Oxford, pp 45–51Veeck A, Veeck G (2000) Consumer segmentation and changing food purchase patterns in Nanjing, PRC.

World Dev 28(3):457–471Vreugdenhil D (ed) (2007) Potato biology and biotechnology. Elsevier, OxfordWalker K (1984) Chinese agriculture during the period of readjustment: 1978–83. China Q 100:783–812Walker T, Schmiediche P, Hijmans R (1999) World patterns and trends in the potato crop: an economic and

geographic survey. Potato Res 42:241–264Wang Q, Zhang W (2004) China’s potato industry and potential impacts on the global market. Am J Potato

Res 81:101–109Wang Q, Zhang W (2010) An economic analysis of potato demand in China. Am J Potato Res 87:245–252Watson JL (1997) McDonald’s in Hong Kong: consumerism, dietary change, and the rise of a children’s

culture. In: Watson JL (ed) Golden arches East: McDonald’s in East Asia. Stanford University Press,Stanford, pp 77–109

Woolfe J (1987) The potato in the human diet. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeWuY, Li E, Samuel N (1995) Food consumption in urban China: an empirical analysis. Appl Econ 27:509–515Xie K, Jin L, Bian C, Hu D, Young N (2007) The Chinese potato industry in transition. Report prepared for

the U. S. Potato Board. Mimeo. Promar International, Alexandria, VAXie K (2008a) The situation and trend of potato industry in China. Processed. International Potato Center

(CIP), BeijingXie K (2008b) Policies and strategies conducive to potato development in Asia and the Pacific region. In:

Papademetriou M (ed) Workshop to commemorate the International Year of the Potato, 6 May. Foodand Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Bangkok, pp 40–45

Yan Y (1997) McDonald’s in Beijing: the localization of Americana. In: Watson JL (ed) Golden archesEast: McDonald’s in East Asia. Stanford University Press, Stanford, pp 39–76

Zhang L, Guenthner J, Dwelle R, Foltz J (1999) U.S. opportunities in China’s frozen French fry market.Am J Potato Res 76:297–304

156 Potato Research (2012) 55:135–156