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Linking Landscapes and Fisheries of the Lake Erie Ecosystem
Joseph F. KoonceCase Western Reserve University
Benjamin F. HobbsJohns Hopkins University
November 3, 2005 2EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Objectives of Presentation
Review project goalsUpdate progress towards goals during year 2 of the researchShow some resultsReview plans for year 3
November 3, 2005 3EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Project Goals
Develop a regional-scale, stressor-response model for the management of the Lake Erie ecosystem
Stressors: land use changes, nutrients, habitat alteration, flow regime modification, exotic species, and fisheries exploitation
Incorporate model into a multi-objective decision making tool for use by Lake Erie managers
November 3, 2005 4EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Project task structure
Linking changes in watershed habitat and nutrient loading to Lake Erie ecosystem healthQuantifying uncertainties in model predictions the effects of uncertainties on management decisionsEvaluating cross-scale interaction of stressorsDeveloping tools to evaluate ecological risk of land-use changesIdentifying and evaluate critical break-points in ecosystem and management integrity
November 3, 2005 5EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Year 2 Accomplishments
Completed testing of models for establishing habitat supply inventory for Lake Erie watershedEstablished a functional dependence of tributary flow and nutrient loading on land coverAssembled a component-based DEVS modeling and simulation framework to perform cross-scale analysis of the interaction of stressorsDeveloped and began testing a decision analysis framework to explore the trade-offs associated with dam removal
November 3, 2005 6EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Functional Integration of Habitat
Landuse/Land Cover
NutrientLoading
SystemHydrology
FishHabitat
RecruitmentProductivity
HumanActivities
Climate
November 3, 2005 7EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Estimation of Habitat Availability
November 3, 2005 8EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Habitat modeling
Apply geomorphic principles to estimation of instream fish habitatGenerate regional scale habitat supply inventories for the entire Lake Erie drainage basin
November 3, 2005 9EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Geomorphologic PrinciplesDrainage Area is related to:
Depth*VelocityDischarge/WidthBankfull WidthBankfull Depth
0.1
1
10
1.E+06 1.E+07 1.E+08 1.E+09
Drainage Area m2
Dis
charg
e/W
idth
or
Depth
*V
elo
city
(m2/s
)
`
0.1
1
10
100
1.E+06 1.E+07 1.E+08 1.E+09
Drainage Area m2
Mete
rs
Width
Depth
November 3, 2005 10EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Geomorphologic PrinciplesMedian Substrate Size (D50) is related to Stream Power
y = 10.314x0.3306
R2 = 0.2606
1
10
100
1 10 100
Unit Stream Power
Med
ian
Bed
surfa
cePa
rticl
e Si
ze (m
m)
Power is a function of:Drainage AreaStream slope
November 3, 2005 11EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Applying GIS—Estimates of Slope
Coarse
Fine
Slope
0.0022
Slope
0.0283 {{{{
November 3, 2005 12EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Applying GIS-Estimates of Median Particle Size
Coarse
Fine
Estimated Particle Size
24 mm
Estimated Particle Size
56 mm
Estimated Particle Size =
f(Drainage Area * Slope)
{{{{
November 3, 2005 13EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Scale Dependence of Slope Estimates
November 3, 2005 14EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Effects of Scale on Flow PredictionsRocky River, Ohio. IHACRES Predictions
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
23-Feb 15-Mar 4-Apr 24-Apr 14-May 3-Jun 23-Jun
Flo
w (
l/se
c)
Subwatersheds Whole Watershed
y = 1.8x + 9434.6R2 = 0.64
y = 0.6365x + 3401.5R2 = 0.6435
0
200000
400000
600000
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 35000
Observed Flow (l/s)
Subwatersheds Whole Watershed Linear (Subwatersheds) Linear (Whole Watershed)
November 3, 2005 15EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Model ImplementationChanceNode
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November 3, 2005 16EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Modeling and Simulation Framework
UML Representation of Lake Erie Model Hierarchy Component-based DEVS Modeling
and Simulation Framework
November 3, 2005 17EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Decision ApplicationsDamsDam removal creates a trade-off between control of sea lamprey and exploitation of Lake Erie fish populations
Priority Conservation AreasOhio Balanced Growth Initiative priority--establish a scientific foundation for demarcation of PCAs
ChanceNode
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November 3, 2005 18EPA STAR Project Review8388101
Next StepsIdentification and evaluation of critical break-points in ecosystem integrity of the Lake Erie ecosystem and of its integrated management. Continue engagement with landscape management policy issues in the Lake Erie Balance Growth Initiative.
PCA demarcation criteria—linked to TMDL Join with the Chagrin River Watershed Partners to evaluate the effects of implementing best management practices for runoff control
With Lake Erie fisheries management agencies, analyze interacting stresses affecting the fish community of Lake Erie and to test our decision-making tools
November 3, 2005 19EPA STAR Project Review8388101
AcknowledgementsCWRU:Peter WhitingJon ClineAnn Marie GormanTom NeesonCatherine Cortright
Univ AkronShiva Sastri
JHU:Ben HobbsPearl ZhengHong Li Agency CollaboratorsMike Fodale, USFWSLes Stanfield, OMNRGreat Lakes Fishery CommissionDepartment of Fisheries & Oceans, CanadaChagrin River Watershed Partners
