Linking London Conference 29 June 2015

Nick Davy, AoC HE Policy Manager

“It’s the economy, stupid”

“Education, education, education”

But what kind?

The HE budget – up 26% in 4 years (2011/15)

Hour Glass Economy

Managers, directors and senior officials +586kProfessional occupations +1175kAssociate professional and technical +583kAdministrative and secretarial -486kSkilled trades occupations -306kCaring, leisure and other service + 649kSales and customer service -64kProcess, plant and machine operatives -214kElementary occupations -67k

London

Percentage Shares

1992 2002 2012 2017 2022

1. Managers, directors and senior officials 9.0 10.6 12.2 12.8 13.3

2. Professional occupations 17.0 20.5 25.3 27.3 28.2

3. Associate professional and technical 14.5 17.1 18.9 19.5 19.9

4. Administrative and secretarial 19.1 14.3 9.8 8.4 7.3

5. Skilled trades occupations 11.1 9.1 7.8 7.3 6.9

6. Caring, leisure and other service 4.7 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.7

7. Sales and customer service 7.7 7.5 7.2 6.7 6.4

8. Process, plant and machine operatives 5.9 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.3

9. Elementary occupations 11.0 11.0 8.9 8.1 8.0

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Low skills equilibrium

Some towns, cities and areas – experience a ‘low skills equilibrium’

Concentration of low paid jobs

Low level skills amongst population

Problems with attracting inward investment

Low educational aspirations and poor results in local schools

Reinforcing spiral of decline or status quo

London

Economic Activity Rates - London: 76.8% - Lowest apart from NE, NI and Wales

London - 60/64 cities for income inequality

Proportion of 19 year olds lacking a level 3 qualifications: range from 52% (Greenwich), 47% (TH, Southwark, Barking) to Redbridge, Harrow and Kensington (29%)

48% of population with Level 4 and above qualification (Mansfield/Grimsby – under 20%)

Young HE participation rate – 48% - highest region (33% - NE)

Working age population with no formal qualifications – 8% (50/64 cities)

Job Creation: 2010-2014 (Labour Force

Survey)Total

Employment

Employees Self Employed

Self-employed

full-time

Self-employed part-time

Apr-Jun 2010 28,975 24,831 3,924 2,908 1,015

Nov-Jan 2014 30,191 25,487 4,464 3,223 1,241

Change +1,216 +656 +540 +314 +226

Increase (per cent) 4.2 2.6 13.8 10.8 22.3

FE and HE Education Policy

Apprenticeships, apprenticeships, apprenticeships.

Full time residential academic higher education

Apprenticeships 2009 – 2014: apprenticeship starts for under 19 flat-lined;

65%+ in that period are at level 2

Most apprenticeships now one year +

600,000 apprenticeships needed every year for 5 years

Over 40% of trailblazer standards at Level 4 +

Issues

Length/quality

Age Group

Progression

Local jobs

Trailblazer to Qualification

IAG Problems?

When asked 'Which paths do you predominantly educate your students on?' and provided with a list of possible options, almost all (92%) stated that they promote university options over all others, whilst only 57% admitted to informing young people about the apprenticeship and vocational training available to them. (Notgoingtouni 2015)

Lifting the Cap? Australia (2013)

Significant increase in enrolments

More enrolled from middle-ranking eligibility grades

Some improvement in enrolments from lower socio-economic groups

Lower/Middle–ranking HEIs grew fastest – often on teaching/nursing courses; Group of 8 less interested

Perceptions of ‘dilution of standards’ – not proven

Students less prepared for HE study? – evidence of improvements in HEI transition and support services.

TAFE colleges – protection; some expansion from a low base

HE Student Enrolments

Enrolment Trends by Institution

Some RG – Exeter, Brum, Bristol – expanded

Those who have expanded continuing to expand; those contracted continuing to contract – across all tariff groups

Evidence of lowering grade offers

Improved transition/academic support offer

UCAS Acceptances; 54% of providers decreased in size -11-14

College HE: Changing shape and Enrolment

stability • Prescribed HE (08/09 – 12/13): Increase in full time

courses and part-time HNC courses;

Trend from part time to full time courses, such as education and business studies;

50% decline in part time ITT and Creative Arts;

Majority in 08/09 – 25+; in 12/13 – under 21

Small increase in part time engineering and construction.

• NPHE: 11% decline over 5 years, 95% - part time;

All regions experienced a decrease except London and South West;

61% of NPHE at level four; 86% of students over 25;

Pipeline – Growth in Vocational Qualifications

BTEC qualifications, increased from 13.5 per cent in 2008 to 23.8 per cent in 2014

Access to HE Diploma

Registrations up by 2,000 from ‘12 to ’13 (44.7)

50% over 25

70% completion

Most popular subjects: Health and Care; Arts and Humanities; Nursing/AHP; Science

Applied/accepted to HE

2011-12 entry 31,525; 21,505

2012-13 entry 32,230; 21,875

2013-14 entry 34,440; 23,305

Thanks

Any Questions?

Nick Davy: nick_davy@aoc.co.uk