Lion Brewery Ceylon
LION – Rs.555.0
Key Highlights
4Q18 Results Update
Shares in Issue (mn) 80.0
Market Cap (US$ mn) 281.3
Estimated Free Float (%) 14.6
3M Avg Daily Volume 17,752
3M Avg Daily Turnover (US$) 60,400
12M High / Low (Rs) 580.0 / 400.0
3M / 12M Price Change (%) 0.5 / 23.3
Relative Share Price Movement (%)
LION: Valuation Ratios
Note: Valuations are based on recurring EPS, Adj. for Capital Issues (if any); Historic Ratios are based on Y/E MPS Source: LION, CT CLSA
Source: Company Interims
`
Shahan de Silva
Email : [email protected] Phone : +94 11 2552290
Sri Lanka
Beverage, Food and Tobacco
22 May 2018
Key Trading Information
CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange
Financials – Year to 31 March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Revenue (Rs mn) 35,526 21,211 30,511 38,694 44,527
Net Profit (Rs mn) 2,081 -139 1,337 1,847 2,361
Earnings per Share (Rs) 26.0 -1.7 16.7 23.1 29.5
Earnings per Share Growth (%) 31.1 >-100.0 >+100.0 38.1 27.8
Price / Earnings Ratio (X) 17.4 N/A 31.4 24.0 18.8
Price / Earnings Growth (X) 0.6 N/A 0.0 0.6 0.7
Gross Dividend per Share (Rs) 3.0 0.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
Gross Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.0
Net Book Value per Share (Rs) 124.8 103.9 121.3 139.4 163.5
Price / Book Value (X) 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.4
Return on Equity (%) 23.2 -1.5 14.8 17.7 19.5
Market Price per Share (Rs) 452.0 460.0 525.0 555.0 555.0
4Q18 recurring net profit of Rs.518mn (+53% YoY, +26% QoQ), broadly in line with our expectations, amid a greater than anticipated recovery in core earnings being somewhat offset by a high ETR
YoY recovery in volumes is on the back of recent policy decisions implemented by the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL), which led to a downward revision in excise duties applicable on soft alcohol, including beer. Consequent to excise duty revisions in Nov 2017, prices of both LION’s 625ml bottle of strong and mild beer were reduced by Rs.80 each to Rs.270 (-23%) and Rs.150 (-35%) respectively
LION’s net profit forecast revised up by +21% to Rs.1,847mn for FY19E (+38% YoY), amid an upward revision to both volume and GP margin expectations, coupled with a downward revision to net finance costs. We forecast a net profit of Rs.2,361mn for FY20E (+28% YoY)
The LION share has outperformed the broader market, rising +23% over the past 12 months
(vs. the ASI’s decline of -4%), and traded at a two-year high of Rs.580.0 on 14 Feb 2018. Further, the share has recovered +49% from a low of Rs.372.0 in end-June 2016, post flood impact (vs. the ASI’s rise of +3% during the same period)
On revised earnings, LION trades at PER multiples of 24.0X for FY19E and 18.8X for FY20E,
offering ROEs of 18-20%
Subsequent to recent price gains, further material upside remains limited, as much of the positives relating to the downward revision in excise duties are assumed to have been already priced in. We further believe that despite the anticipated turnaround in earnings on the back of volume recovery, LION’s near term multiples remain relatively rich. A partial valuation discount is also warranted, given LION’s susceptibility to political and regulatory risk
Nevertheless, medium to long term investors may favour accumulation of the share, owing to
LION’s ability to fully capitalise on the recent excise duty revisions due to its dominant market position. The anticipated growth trajectory in LION’s volumes is further expected to be supported by current low consumption levels, greater urbanisation, an improvement in disposable income levels and rising tourist arrivals
ASPI
LION
85
100
115
130
22-May-17 22-Nov-17 22-May-18
EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date 2 A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY
The Business
Lion Brewery Ceylon (LION), a 46% effectively owned subsidiary of listed conglomerate Carson Cumberbatch (CARS), is Sri Lanka’s largest producer and distributor of soft alcohol (beer) with a market share of ~86%; LION owns 2 out of the 3 locally issued beer manufacturing licenses. Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad, which operates as a joint venture partner of the company, owns a 25% stake in LION LION has a wide portfolio of beers, with sales volumes primarily driven by Lion Strong. Further, LION’s holding company is Sri Lanka’s sole authorised importer and distributor of the Diageo and Moet Hennessey portfolio of brands. LION’s production plant is located in the industrial zone of Biyagama (20km east of Colombo). The facility has a maximum production capacity of ~2.1mn hectoliters per annum (hL/yr), and currently operates at ~90% capacity utilisation levels
LION’s operations; Post-flood impact in May 2016 LION’s local production facilities, which were completely halted in end May 2016 due to flood related damages, recommenced operations on 10 November 2016. Whilst sales were fully halted in June and July 2016, beer was supplied to the market via canned beer imports from four Carlsberg breweries in South East Asia from Aug-Nov 2016. Measures taken by the GoSL to provide relief to flood impacted corporations, ensured that taxes paid on LION’s beer imports from Aug to Nov 2016 were limited to the value of local excise duty
Lion Brewery Ceylon
Recent Financial Performance
Key Figures & Ratios 4Q17 4Q18 % YoY % QoQ FY17 FY18 % YoY
Revenue (Rs mn) 5,810 10,448 79.8 30.7 21,211 30,511 43.8
Gross Profit (Rs mn) 847 2,611 >+100.0 35.5 3,468 6,802 96.1
EBIT (Rs mn) -362 1,551 >+100.0 83.9 652 3,630 >+100.0
Net Finance Cost (Rs mn) -342 -338 -1.1 -2.1 -1,259 -1,335 6.0
Reported Net Profit / (Loss) (Rs mn) -813 1,270 >+100.0 >+100.0 -1,447 2,089 >+100.0
Net Profit (Rs mn)^ 339 518 52.9 25.5 -139 1,337 >+100.0
Earnings per Share (Rs)^ 4.2 6.5 52.9 25.5 -1.7 16.7 >+100.0
Gross Profit Margin (%) 14.6 25.0 10.4 0.9 16.4 22.3 5.9
EBIT Margin (%) -6.2 14.8 21.1 4.3 3.1 11.9 8.8
Total Opex (Rs mn) 1,211 1,580 30.5 41.9 3,880 4,453 14.8
Total Opex as a % of Revenue 20.8 15.1 -5.7 1.2 18.3 14.6 -3.7
Effective Tax Rate (%)^^ -48.3 57.3 >+100.0 40.2 24.4 41.8 17.3
Net Debt (Rs mn) 10,394 7,054 -32.1 -13.4 10,394 7,054 -32.1
Net Debt : Equity (%) 125.0 72.7 -52.3 -16.6 125.0 72.7 -52.3
Capex (Rs mn) 1,936 501 -74.1 52.3 3,309 1,358 -59.0 Note: Valuations and earnings on a recurring basis ^Earnings adjusted for Rs.752mn progressive insurance receipts on property damage in 4Q18 , Rs.1,673mn impairment charge on intangible assets in 4Q17, Rs.1,041mn stock write-off due to flood related damages in FY17, Rs.1,066mn insurance receipts on property damage in FY17 and Rs.340mn reversal of unabsorbed VAT in 3Q17 ^^ Income tax reversal in 4Q17, owing to capital allowances on newly purchased machinery at LION's manufacturing plant
Description 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 FY17 Reported Net Profit -477 -477 320 -813 -1,447
Impairment charge on intangible assets - - - 1,673 1,673
Stock write off due to flood related damages 413 - 1,150 -521^ 1,041
Insurance receipts on property damage - -300 -766 - -1,066
Reversal of unabsorbed VAT - - -340 - -340
Recurring Net Profit -64 -777 364 339 -139
LION Net Profit: Adjustments to one-off items in FY17 (Rs mn)
LION: Estimated Sales Mix^ (%)
^ Reversal of stock write-off
* Lion & Carlsberg Lager ** Premium – Somersby, Corona, Lower Main Stream – Sando Power & Sando Stout
Source: LION & CT CLSA
4Q18 recurring net profit of Rs.518mn (+53% YoY, +26% QoQ), broadly in line with our expectations, amid a greater than anticipated recovery in core earnings being somewhat offset by a high ETR. Consequently, FY18 recurring net profit was recorded at Rs.1,337mn (vs. a recurring net loss of –Rs.139mn in FY17)
54%
13%
8%
20%
5%
Lion StrongCarlsberg Special BrewLion StoutMild Beer*Others**
Source: Company interims & CT CLSA
^ Post excise duty price revisions in Nov 2017
FY18 and FY17 earnings are inclusive of progressive insurance receipts on business interruption of Rs.1,205mn and Rs.1,000mn respectively, relating to the complete halt of LION’s local production due to flood related damages to its manufacturing facility in end-May 2016. Meanwhile, FY18 earnings are adjusted for a Rs.752mn progressive insurance receipt on property damage received in 4Q18. Earnings adjustments for one-off items in FY17 are as follows:
EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date 3 CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange
+70% YoY excise duty revision led price revisions in late 2015, led to an estimated 40-45% decline in volumes
-33% excise duty revision led price revisions in Nov 2017, has led to an estimated 50-55% recovery in volumes
Quarterly Highlights 4Q18 revenue +80% YoY and +31% QoQ to Rs.10,448mn – highest on record, with
increased demand stemming from recent tax-led price reductions resulting in strong YoY volume growth. Volumes are estimated to have risen +50-55% YoY and +20-25% QoQ
Increased volumes are assumed to have been driven by a shift in demand from the legal hard
alcohol sector towards strong beer (8.8% alcohol content). Further, volume growth was likely aided by an easing in pressure on disposable income levels
In Nov-2017, the GoSL, as part of its National Budget 2018 proposals, took measures to rationalise the tax structure applicable to the alcohol sector in line with alcohol content. Initiatives taken attempt to reduce the overall consumption of illicit alcohol, which is considered to be as high as ~49% of total alcohol consumption
GoSL initiatives resulted in excise duties applicable to soft alcohol (inclusive of beer and wine) being revised to Rs.2,400 / ltr of alcohol (previously Rs.315 and Rs.190 per bulk litre of strong and mild beer respectively) o Revisions to the tax structure applicable to soft alcohol resulted in a ~33% reduction in
excise duties on strong beer (alcohol content >5%, accounts for ~70-75% of total sales volumes) and a ~39% excise duty reduction on mild beer (alcohol content <5%)
o Consequently, prices of both LION’s 625ml bottle of Lion Strong and Lion Lager were
reduced by Rs.80 each to Rs.270 (-23%) and Rs.150 (-35%) respectively
Subsequent to excise duty-led price revisions, LION raised prices on both 625ml Lion Strong and Lion Lager by Rs.10 each to Rs.280 (+4%) and Rs.160 (+7%) respectively, in response to the imposition of a 2% Nation Building Tax (NBT) by the GoSL w.e.f 01 Apr 2018
Lion Brewery Ceylon
LION: Revenue (Rs bn) and Var (%)
Estimated volume recovery of +50-55% YoY
LION Heineken Lanka
Brand Type Vol. Rs. Brand Type Vol. Rs.
Premium Premium
Corona Mild 355ml 635 Heineken Mild 330ml 570
Higher End Main Stream
Carlsberg Lager Mild 640ml 180 Tiger Lager Mild 640ml 180
Carlsberg Special Brew
Strong 640ml 320 Tiger Black Strong 640ml 300
Main Stream Anchor Smooth Mild 625ml 150
Lion Lager Mild 625ml 160 Anchor Strong Strong 625ml 280
Lion Strong Strong 625ml 280
Lion Stout Strong 625ml 290
Retail Price of Key LION & Competitor Brands^
^Prices as at 22 May 2018 Source: CT CLSA
Retail price of 625ml Lion Strong +4% w.e.f 01 Apr 2018
Excise duty revisions on alcoholic beverages (Var %)
^Consolidation of excise duties with VAT & NBT in October 2014 Note: Excise duties per litre of Arrack are estimated as historics were provided per proof litre
-48
-24
0
24
48
Jan-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 Jul-13 Oct-14^ Oct-15 Nov-15 Nov-17
Strong beer/litre Arrack/litre
Price revisions on Lion Strong (Rs) / 625ml bottle
Source: Ministry of Finance & Planning
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
3
5
7
9
11
4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18
Revenue - LHS YoY Growth
240
300
350
270 280
-30
-15
0
15
30
160
240
320
400
Oct-15 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Apr-18
Lion Strong (Rs) Variance (%) - RHS
EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date 4 A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY
Quarterly Highlights
GP margin expands to a two-year high of 25.0% 4Q18 Gross Profit was recorded at Rs.2,611mn (vs. Rs.847mn in 4Q17, +36% QoQ), whilst GP
margin rose to 25.0% - highest level recorded post steep excise duty revisions in late-2015 (vs. 14.6% in 4Q17 and 24.1% in 3Q18)
Margin recovery is assumed to have been driven by the difference between price reductions implemented by LION and the downward revision in applicable excise duties. For 625ml Lion Strong, applicable excise duties were revised down by ~33%, whereas retail prices were revised down by -23%
Rise in opex, in line with volume recovery Total opex +31% YoY to Rs.1,580mn, amid a +44% YoY rise in distribution expenses to
Rs.1,064mn, in line with the recovery in volumes. However, opex as a % of revenue fell YoY to 15.1% (vs. 20.8% in 4Q17, though 13.9% in 3Q18)
As at 31 Mar 2018, LION had received a total of Rs.4.0bn in insurance proceeds
relating to flood related losses (Rs.2.2bn for business interruption and Rs.1.8bn as the interim claim for fixed assets and inventory). LION stated that in terms of the company’s insurance policy in place, it has now received the full claim related to insurance coverage for business interruption and damage to fixed assets & inventory
Decline in debt position, amid settlement of flood-related borrowings LION’s net debt stood at Rs.7.1bn as at 31 Mar 2018 (vs. Rs.10.4bn as at 31 Mar 2017 and
Rs.8.1bn as at 31 Dec 2017), likely on account of insurance proceeds being utilised to settle part of the flood related borrowings. Consequently, net debt to equity amounted to 73% (vs. 125% as at 31 Mar 2017 and 89% as at 31 Dec 2017)
LION’s FY18 capex amounted to Rs.1,358mn (vs. Rs.3,309mn in FY17, attributable to expenses
incurred as part of LION’s flood prevention plan - completed in Feb 2017). In FY15, LION completed a ~Rs.6bn expansion and infrastructure development at its facility in Biyagama, which resulted in the commissioning of a new canning and bottling facilities to its operation
Income tax expense was recorded at Rs.695mn - ETR of 57.3%, owing to the recognition of a
deferred tax liability during the quarter (vs. an income tax reversal of Rs.1,052mn in 4Q17). LION mentioned that the income tax reversal in 4Q17 was on account of capital allowances, relating to machinery purchased for LION’s manufacturing plant post-flood impact. The corporate income tax rate applicable to the alcohol sector currently stands at 40%
National Budget 2018 proposals relating to the local alcohol industry In addition to the revision of applicable excise duties, the GoSL issued several additional
National Budget 2018 proposals that are expected to impact the local alcohol industry in the near to medium term. These proposals, together with their potential impact on the industry, are summarised in the table below:
Lion Brewery Ceylon
LION: Net Debt Position (Rs bn)
LION: Capex (Rs mn)
Rs.1,936mn
LION: Opex
0
200
400
600
800
2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18
LION: Profit Margins (%)
Proposal Impact Analysis
Impose Nation Building Tax (NBT) of 2% w.e.f 01 Apr 2018
Subsequent to its implementation, LION raised prices on both 625ml Lion Strong and Lion Lager by Rs.10 each to Rs.280 (+4%) and Rs.160 (+7%) respectively. Expected to facilitate further margin recovery in the near term, owing to the difference between upward price revisions and the applicable tax payment
Simplify the rate structure and issue new liquor licenses to promote tourism
Considered to be positive for LION, as it is likely to facilitate greater points of access , especially in rural areas. Clarity is however required on whether the proposal would result in an increased number of licensed sales outlets (currently restricted to ~2,700 across the country), or whether it would only be applicable to tourism related establishments
Remove special excise duty on canned beer w.e.f 10 Nov 2017
Not anticipated to have a material impact, as LION’s full domestic requirement is produced locally. The special duty was implemented in the National Budget 2017, when LION imported beer during its factory closure (from Jun to Nov 2016) to cater to domestic demand
-7
0
7
14
21
12
20
28
36
4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18
GP Margin - LHS EBIT Margin
13
16
19
22
700
1,000
1,300
1,600
4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18
Opex (Rs mn)
Opex as a % of Revenue - RHS
30
60
90
120
150
2
6
10
14
4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18
Net Debt (Rs bn)
Net Debt : Equity (%) - RHS
Additional National Budget 2018 proposals
EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date 5 CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange
Outlook and Valuations LION’s net profit forecast revised up by +21% to Rs.1,847mn for FY19E (+38% YoY), amid an upward revision to both volume and GP margin expectations, coupled with a downward revision to net finance costs. We forecast a net profit of Rs.2,361mn for FY20E (+28% YoY) LION’s revenue forecasts revised up by +10% Rs.38,694mn for FY19E (+27% YoY), owing to a
stronger than anticipated volume recovery in 4Q18, coupled with a slight upward revision to average price per bulk litre, subsequent to LION’s tax-led upward price revisions in Apr 2018. Meanwhile, revenue forecast at Rs.44,527mn for FY20E (+15% YoY)
LION’s sales volume forecast revised up by +7% to 120mn bulk litres for FY19E (+46% YoY) and forecast at 131mn bulk litres for FY20E (+9% YoY). LION’s volumes previously declined 40-45%, following a +70% revision in excise duties in late-2015, indicative of a reduction in product price inelasticity o A rise in volumes is expected to be supported by a consumer demand shift away from the
legal hard alcohol sector towards strong beer, coupled with the potential increase in points of access likely to result in a movement away from the illicit alcohol segment
LION’s average price per bulk litre of beer is forecast to decline by -9% YoY
(previously -11% YoY) to Rs.317 for FY19E, owing to recent excise-duty led price revisions (vs. -9% YoY to Rs.347 in FY17), and rise +6% to Rs.335 in FY20E,. The GoSL is expected to take a more moderate approach to excise duty revisions, in line with its mandate to encourage a consumer demand shift from the illicit alcohol and hard alcohol segments towards soft alcohol
LION’s GP margin revised up 49bps to 25.3% for FY19E (vs. 22.3% in FY18), and forecast at 25.5% for FY20E – similar to levels witnessed prior to excise duty revisions in late-2015. Upward revision for FY19E is primarily on the back of the difference between price revisions implemented by LION in Apr 2018 and the applicable tax payment. Further, margin expansion to be boosted in the medium term by an expected shift in sales mix towards mild beer, which currently provides higher margins than strong beer
Total opex revised up by +10% to Rs.5,669mn for FY19E (+27% YoY), amid increased
distribution costs, in line with the upward revision to volume growth expectations and higher fuel costs. Meanwhile, total opex forecast at Rs.6,523mn for FY20E (+15% YoY). Opex as a % of revenue is expected to remain broadly unchanged at 14.7% for both FY19E and FY20E
LION’s net finance costs revised down by -11% Rs.1,091mn for FY19E (-18% YoY), owing to a
greater than anticipated reduction in debt position in 4Q18, and forecast at Rs.946mn for FY20E (-13% YoY), with insurance receipts received by LION in relation to flood damages being utilised towards reducing the company’s net debt levels; forecast at Rs.5.7bn as at 31 Mar 2019 and Rs.4.7bn as at 31 Mar 2020
ETR for FY19E and FY20E forecast at 40.0% – in line with the general tax rate applicable to both alcohol and tobacco manufacturers. FY19E ETR previously set at 37.0%, owing to expected capital allowances from newly purchased machinery at LION’s manufacturing plant
We expect a DPS of Rs.5.0 for FY19E and Rs.5.5 for FY20E, at relatively conservative dividend
payouts of 19-21%, as LION is expected to retain earnings to reduce net debt levels
LION is not anticipated to incur major capex in the near to medium term, as the company is geared to cater to the anticipated growth in demand – sufficient manufacturing capabilities and land bank at its facility to increase maximum production capacity to ~5.0 mn hL/yr (vs current ~2.1 mn hL/yr , at ~90% capacity utlisation levels post recent excise duty revisions), with minimal capital expenditure
The LION share has outperformed the broader market, rising +23% over the past 12 months (vs. the ASI’s decline of -4%), and traded at a two-year high of Rs.580.0 on 14 Feb 2018. Further, the share has recovered +49% from a low of Rs.372.0 in end-June 2016, post flood impact (vs. the ASI’s rise of +3% during the same period)
Subsequent to recent price gains, further material upside remains limited, as much of the positives relating to the downward revision in excise duties are assumed to have been already priced in. We further believe that despite the anticipated turnaround in earnings on the back of volume recovery, LION’s near term multiples remain relatively rich. A partial valuation discount is also warranted, given LION’s susceptibility to political and regulatory risk
Nevertheless, medium to long term investors may favour accumulation of the share, owing to
LION’s ability to fully capitalise on the recent excise duty revisions due to its dominant market position. The anticipated growth trajectory in LION’s volumes is further expected to be supported by current low consumption levels, greater urbanisation, an improvement in disposable income levels and rising tourist arrivals
Lion Brewery Ceylon
LION: Revenue (Rs bn) & Beer Production Volumes (mn bulk litres)
Source: Excise Department of Sri Lanka & CT CLSA
GoSL to take a moderate approach towards excise duty revisions
LION is not expected to incur major capex in the near to
medium term
The LION share has recovered +49% post-flood impact
GP margins expected to recover to 2015 levels
50
80
110
140
20
25
30
35
40
45
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Revenue - LHS Sales Volume
EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date 6 A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY
Lion Brewery Ceylon
Regional Beer Manufacturers: FY19E Relative Valuations^
Source: Bloomberg
LION
FY19E DIST
FY19E CTC
2018E MPS (Rs) 555.0 21.8 1,050.0
Market Cap (US$ mn) 281.3 634.5 1,246.1
EPS (Rs) 23.1 1.4 83.8 EPS Growth (%) 38.1 43.8 7.6 P/E Ratio (X) 24.0 15.3 12.5
Gross Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 4.6 8.0
Return on Equity (%) 17.7 71.3 342.8
Est. Free Float (%) 14.6 3.3 15.9
3M Avg Daily T/O (US$)^ 60,400 81,578 14,087
Source: CT CLSA
Relative Share Price Movement: 2016-2018YTD
LION: Income Statement Extracts (Rs.mn) and Key Ratios (%)
Source: LION, CT CLSA
FY16 FY17 %YoY FY18 %YoY FY19E^ FY19E %YoY FY20E %YoY
Revenue 35,526 21,211 -40.3 30,511 43.8 35,272 38,694 26.8 44,527 15.1
Cost of Sales -26,710 -17,743 -33.6 -23,710 33.6 -26,527 -28,916 22.0 -33,183 14.8
Gross Profit 8,816 4,468 -49.3 6,802 96.1 8,745 9,779 43.8 11,344 16.0
EBIT* 3,878 669 -82.8 3,630 >+100.0 3,647 4,170 14.9 4,881 17.1
Profit Before Tax* 2,959 -607 >-100.0 2,296 >+100.0 2,431 3,079 34.1 3,935 27.8
Income Tax -878 468 >-100.0 -958 >+100.0 -899 -1,232 28.5 -1,574 27.8
Reported Net Profit 2,081 -1,447 >-100.0 2,089 >+100.0 1,531 1,847 -11.6 2,361 27.8
Net Profit * 2,081 -139 >-100.0 1,337 >+100.0 1,531 1,847 38.1 2,361 27.8
GP Margin (%) 24.8 21.1 -3.7 22.3 5.9 24.8 25.3 3.0 25.5 0.2
NP Margin (%) 5.9 -0.7 -6.6 4.4 5.0 4.3 4.8 0.4 5.3 0.5
Effective Tax Rate (%)** 29.7 -77.1 >-100.0 41.7 >+100.0 37.0 40.0 -1.7 40.0 0.0
Company Name Mkt Cap Est.
Market share
EPS Growth (%)
PER(X) Dividend Yield(%)
ROE (%)
(US$ mn) % FY19E
Lion Brewery 281 86.0 38.1 24.0 0.9 17.7
United Breweries Limited India 4,561 55.0 55.2 87.3 0.2 10.3
Thai Beverage Company (Thailand) 14,827 24.0 3.4 18.1 N/A 27.7
Heineken Malaysia 1,767 52.0 15.8 22.4 4.4 71.7
Carlsberg Malaysia 1,591 43.0 29.2 24.0 4.5 71.3
Key Inelastic Demand Industry Leaders: FY19E/2018E relative valuations
^ Previous forecast *Earnings adjusted for Rs.752mn progressive insurance receipts on property damage in 4Q18 , Rs.1,673mn impairment charge on intangible assets in 4Q17, Rs.1,041mn stock write-off due to flood related damages in FY17, Rs.1,066mn insurance receipts on property damage in FY17 and Rs.340mn reversal of unabsorbed VAT in 3Q17 **FY16 & FY17 include income tax reversals, owing to capital allowances on newly purchased machinery at LION's manufacturing plant
^As at 22 May 2018
Dip in share price subsequent to floods in end-May 2016
Share price rally preceding excise duty revisions
^ DIST commenced trading w.e.f 03 Apr 2018
ASPI
LION
55
70
85
100
4-Jan-16 19-Oct-16 4-Aug-17 20-May-18
EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date 7 CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange
Lion Brewery Ceylon
Major Shareholder Movements
Major Shareholder Movements as at 31 March 2018
Name No. of Shares
% Change
(Shares)* Comment
1 Ceylon Beverage Holdings PLC 41,798,788 52.3 - CARS Related Party
2 Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad 20,000,686 25.0 - Joint Venture Partner
3 Carson Cumberbatch PLC A/C No. 02 4,107,793 5.1 - CARS Related Party
4 T Rowe Price Funds 1,841,303 2.3 +250,848
5 Coeli Sicav I- Frontier Markets Fund 1,699,622 2.1 +623,855
6 Pershing Averbach Grauson & Co. 1,353,445 1.7 +135,733
7 Bukit Darah Plc A/C No. 02 1,300,000 1.6 - CARS Related Party
8 Norges Bank A/C No.2 1,153,742 1.4 +79,000
9 Carson Cumberbatch PLC A/C No. 01 900,758 1.1 - CARS Related Party
10 Verdipapirfondet Odin Emerging Markets
575,000 0.7 -
11 GF Capital Global Limited 568,595 0.7 -
12 Mellon Bank N.A.-Florida Retirement System
498,386 0.6 -
13 Sampath Bank PLC/Mrs.Priyani Dharshini Ratnagopal
300,000 0.4 -
14 T.Rowe Price Institutional Frontier Markets Equity Fund
282,372 0.4 +55,874
15 Russell Investments Institutional Funds Public Limited Company
264,009 0.3 +80,000
16 Frank Russel Trust Company Comingled Benefit Funds Trust
253,681 0.3 -
17 Rondure New World Fund 167,956 0.2 - New Entrant to Top 20
18 Portelet Limited 161,920 0.2 -
19 Morgan Stanley And Co Intl PLC-Own A/C 149,117 0.2 -50,883
20 Deutsche Bank AG-London 139,614 0.2 - New Entrant to Top 20
Total Top 20 77,516,787 96.9 -
*Change Since 31 December 2017
Exited Top 20 (Name & No. of Shares Held): Route One Offshore Master Fund – 994,834 shares, Route One Fund 1 – 874,558 shares
Trading & Sales
Lasantha Iddamalgoda [email protected] +94 11 255 2295 +94 77 778 2103 Dyan Morris [email protected] +94 11 255 2320 +94 77 722 4951 Manura Hemachandra [email protected] +94 77 261 4797 Rosco Todd [email protected] +94 77 262 7233 Dhammika de Silva [email protected] +94 77 356 2699
Arusha Michael [email protected] +94 77 395 6765
Nuwan Madusanka [email protected] +94 76 858 9722 Ryan Jansz [email protected] +94 77 547 9233
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Disclaimer : This document has been prepared and issued by CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources, believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are fair and reasonable, neither CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. nor any director, officer or employee, shall in any way be responsible for the contents. CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. may act as a Broker in the investments which are the subject of this document or in related investments and may have acted upon or used the information contained in this document, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before its publication. CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd., its directors, officers or employees may also have a position or be otherwise interested in the investments referred to in this document. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred to in this document. It is not intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek your own professional advice, including tax advice. The markets in which CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. operates may not have regulation governing conflict of interest over preparation and publication of research reports (including but not limited to disclosure of perceived or actual conflict of interest) as may be found in more developed markets. Please contact your investment advisor / analyst should you require further information over the relevant regulation and particular disclosure over perceived or actual conflict of interest.
Research
Sanjeewa Fernando [email protected] +94 77 742 7439 Chayanika Ranasinghe [email protected] +94 77 237 9731 Yasas Wijethunga [email protected] +94 77 053 2059 Shahan de Silva [email protected] +94 11 255 2290 Subecca Sothylingam [email protected] +94 11 255 2290 Shahana Kanagaratnam [email protected] +94 11 255 2290 Madhusha Sivanathan [email protected] +94 11 255 2290
Consultant / Sales
Rohan Fernando [email protected] +94 11 255 2297 +94 76 778 2101