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DEPARTMENT OF NATIONAL PARKS AND WILDLIFE

Nsumbu National Park Climate Change Strategy

Table of ContentsList of Abbreviations and Acronyms........................................................................................iii

1. Executive summary..............................................................................................................1

2. Climate change and protected areas..................................................................................2

3. Goal, objectives and scope of the Climate Change Strategy...........................................3

3.1. Goal.....................................................................................................................................3

3.2. Objectives........................................................................................................................3

3.3. Scope..............................................................................................................................3

4. Nsumbu National Park background...................................................................................4

4.1. General information............................................................................................................4

4.2. Geographical features and topography...............................................................................4

4.3. Biodiversity......................................................................................................................5

Flora.......................................................................................................................................5

Fauna.....................................................................................................................................6

4.4. Cultural and historic resources...........................................................................................7

4.5. Management.......................................................................................................................7

4.6. Surrounding communities...................................................................................................7

4.7. Tourism...............................................................................................................................8

4.8. Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) Involvement........................................................8

4.9. Current challenges..............................................................................................................9

5. Climate change projections................................................................................................9

5.1. Baseline climatic conditions................................................................................................9

5.1.1. Zambia..........................................................................................................................9

5.1.2. Northern Province......................................................................................................12

5.1.3. Mpulungu and Nsama Districts..................................................................................13

5.2. Climate change.............................................................................................................14

5.2.1. Observed climate change......................................................................................14

6. Impacts of climate change on Nsumbu National Park....................................................18

6.1. Increase in the amount of rain falling during a shorter wet season..................................18

6.1.1. Rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events and floods.................18

6.1.2. Increased soil erosion................................................................................................19

6.1.3. Increased sedimentation of rivers and lakes..............................................................19

6.1.4. Additional impacts related to a shorter more intense rainfall season.........................19

6.2. Temperature increases and a longer dry season..........................................................20

6.2.1. An increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts and water shortages.......20

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6.2.2. A rise in potential evapotranspiration.....................................................................20

6.2.3. Changing fire regimes............................................................................................22

6.2.4. Increases in lake surface temperatures.................................................................22

6.2.5. Physiological stress in wild and domestic species.................................................22

6.3. Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels...............................................................................23

7. Potential benefits and opportunities presented by climate change.................................23

7.1. Climate change-related investments.................................................................................24

7.2. New collaboration opportunities........................................................................................24

7.3. Arrival of new species.......................................................................................................25

8. Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions............................................................25

8.1. Objective 1: Understand the impacts of climate change on Nsumbu NP.....................25

8.2. Objective 2: Increase the climate change-resilience of Nsumbu NP............................26

8.3. Objective 3: Enhance the climate change-resilience of stakeholders and adjacent communities.............................................................................................................................27

8.4. Objective 4: Communicate the impacts of, and Nsumbu NP’s response to, climate change.....................................................................................................................................28

9. Implementation...................................................................................................................29

10. Monitoring plan...............................................................................................................30

11. Alignment........................................................................................................................40

11.1. Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Strategic Plan (2011–2020) and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets.................................................................................................................40

11.2. Zambia’s Second National Biodiversity and Action Plan (2015–2025)...........................40

11.3. Zambia’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA, 2007)...............................41

11.4. Zambia’s Second National Communication (SNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)............................................................................42

11.5. Zambia’s National Policy on Climate Change (NPCC)...................................................43

11.6. Zambia’s National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS)................................44

11.7. Zambia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC, 2015)...........................45

11.8. Nsumbu National Park General Management Plan (GMP, 2004)..................................45

11.9. Lower level planning.......................................................................................................46

11.10. Alignment with NGOs and development initiatives.......................................................47

12. Communication of the Climate Change Strategy.............................................................48

13. References...........................................................................................................................49

Appendix I..................................................................................................................................52

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List of Abbreviations and AcronymsAFDB African Development BankAR4 Fourth Assessment ReportCBA Community-based adaptationCBD Convention on Biological DiversityCCS Climate Change StrategyCLT Conservation Lake TanganyikaCPP Community Partnership ParkCRB Community Resource BoardCSA Climate-Smart AgricultureDNPW Department of National Parks and WildlifeDRC Democratic Republic of the CongoEIA Environmental Impact AssessmentENSO El Niño-Southern OscillationEWS Early Warning SystemsFZS Frankfurt Zoological SocietyGEF Global Environment FacilityGHG Greenhouse GasGMA Game Management AreaGMP General Management PlanIDP Integrated Development PlanningINDC Intended Nationally Determined ContributionIOD Indian Ocean DipoleIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence ZoneIUCN International Union for Conservation of NatureLTDP Lake Tanganyika Development ProjectMAR Mean annual rainfallMMR Mean monthly rainfallMMT Mean monthly temperatureNAPA National Adaptation Programme of ActionNASA National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNBSAP-2 Zambia’s Second National Biodiversity and Action PlanNCCDC National Climate Change Development CouncilNCCRS National Climate Change Response StrategyNPNOAA

National ParkNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

PA Protected AreaPET Potential evapotranspirationRCP Representative Concentration PathwayRET Renewable Energy TechnologiesSADC Southern African Development CommunitySAN Southern Annular NodeSeNDP Seventh National Development PlanSFA Sustainable Fisheries and AquacultureSFM Sustainable Forest ManagementSIMAPB Strategic Management Investment Plan and BudgetSNC Second National CommunicationUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeVAG Village Action GroupZMD Zambian Meteorological Department

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1. Executive summary

Climate change will have substantial impacts on Nsumbu National Park’s (Nsumbu NP)i ecosystems and species, as well as the livelihoods of people who are dependent on the park and its surroundings for natural resources. Shifting rainfall and temperature regimes are expected to cause an increase in inter alia: i) the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events; ii) soil erosion and consequently, sedimentation of freshwater systems; iii) the frequency and intensity of water shortages; iv) potential evapotranspiration (PET); v) the frequency and intensity of fires; and vi) lake surface temperatures. Additionally, the current challenges facing the park and its surroundings will be compounded by the impacts of climate change and will place further pressure on the integrity of the protected ecosystems and their capacity to supply goods and services. In response to the predicted impacts of climate change, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), together with the Department of National Parks and Wildlife (DNPW) ii, have developed a Climate Change Strategy to strengthen the adaptive capacity and ultimately climate-resilience of Nsumbu NP and its surroundings.

The objectives of the strategy include:1. Understand the impacts of climate change on Nsumbu NP.2. Increase the climate change-resilience of Nsumbu NP.3. Enhance the climate change-resilience of stakeholders and adjacent communities.4. Communicate the impacts of, and Nsumbu NP’s response to, climate change to relevant

government departments, local communities and other stakeholders.

To successfully accomplish the strategy’s objectives several climate change adaptation and mitigation actions are recommended. The desired outcomes of these actions include inter alia: i) understanding how various natural and cultural elements of the park’s landscape may respond to changing conditions; ii) designing long-term monitoring and research programmes that inform management actions; iii) managing towards the maintenance or enhancement of habitat heterogeneity, which will allow for changes in the distribution and abundance of vulnerable species and communities under future climate change conditions; iv) strengthening the climate resilience of local communities; v) ensuring that the public and stakeholders are informed of potential climate change impacts on Nsumbu NP and the consequent adaptation and mitigation actions being implemented; and vi) ensuring alignment and coordination between all role players during the strategy’s implementation.

Implementation of the strategy will be supported by a monitoring plan to promote an adaptive management and “learn by doing” approach. The monitoring plan will use specific indicators to track the progress of actions and the achievement of objectives. Data collected on these indicators will be evaluated to determine the relevance and fulfilment of the strategy’s objectives, as well as its efficiency, effectiveness and sustainability. The evaluation will provide information that will enable the incorporation of lessons learned into the strategy’s adaptive management and learning by doing approach, which will ensure progress towards strengthening the climate-resilience of Nsumbu NP over the long-term.

i Henceforth also referred to as Nsumbu National Park, Nsumbu NP or the park in the document.ii Formerly known as the Zambian Wildlife Authority (ZAWA).

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2. Climate change and protected areas

Climate change causes significant impacts on ecosystems and species across the world (Figure 1)1. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report of 2014, many species face an increased risk of extinction because of climate change. If increases in global average temperatures continue to follow current trends and projections, the resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded over the course of the 21st century and approximately a quarter of all plant and animal species are expected to face an increased risk of extinction. The development and implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in vulnerable ecosystems are, therefore, crucial for the effective conservation of biodiversity.

Figure 1. Some of the effects of climate change on ecosystems and species. Adapted from Mawdsley et al. 2009 1.

Approximately 14% of the world’s land surface area is covered by protected areas, containing some of the world’s last remaining large, unfragmented natural habitats2. Furthermore, protected areas are in a unique position to support the implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, as they are already established as efficient, successful and cost-effective tools for ecosystem management. Safeguarding ecosystem services and biodiversity within these areas is a much cheaper alternative to the restoration of areas that have already been degraded, while their benefits to climate change adaptation and mitigation are priceless.

Protected areas play a crucial role in climate change mitigation and adaptation by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and supplying human populations with essential ecosystem services necessary for their wellbeing3. There are four general categories of ecosystem services4: provisioning services, which include food, fresh water, minerals, pharmaceuticals and fuel; regulating services, such as carbon sequestration, climate regulation, waste decomposition,

water and air purification, and crop pollination;

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supporting services, including inter alia nutrient cycling, seed dispersal and primary production; and

cultural services, such as aesthetic, spiritual and recreational benefits.

The efficient maintenance of essential ecosystem services by protected areas is necessary for preserving and enhancing the climate-resilience of landscapes and the human livelihoods that depend on them. Examples of ecosystem services maintained by efficiently functioning protected areas are listed below. The provision of clean water and maintaining water flow rates of rivers. For example, 33 of

the world’s largest cities rely on forest protected areas for their drinking water3. The conservation and strengthening of fish stocks in marine and freshwater areas. For

example, there is evidence of an increase in fish size and density in marine protected areas5.

The protection of crop wild relatives, which facilitates the breeding of climate-resilient crops and sustains pollination services.

The provision of traditional medicines and preventing the spread of vector-borne diseases.

Apart from their role in the maintenance of essential ecosystem services, protected areas contribute to the alleviation of climate change causes and impacts through adaptation and mitigation actions included in their management. Such actions promote the maintenance of ecosystem integrity necessary for climate-resilience by inter alia: i) conserving watersheds and enhancing the retention of water in soils; ii) limiting incursions into sensitive, fire-prone areas; iii) encouraging traditional management systems; iv) limiting the anthropomorphic transformation of landscapes; and v) reducing other human-related pressures – such as poaching and overgrazing. Additionally, protected areas assist in buffering the impacts of climate change on their surroundings through inter alia: i) reducing the impacts of extreme climatic events – such as floods; ii) stabilising the soil on vulnerable slopes and riverbanks; and iii) capturing and storing atmospheric CO2.

3. Goal, objectives and scope of the Climate Change Strategy

3.1. Goal

The goal of this climate change strategy is to strengthen the climate-resilience of Nsumbu NP, the surrounding GMAs and the local communities who are dependent on the landscape and its natural resources for their livelihoods. Included in this goal are inter alia the: i) conservation of biodiversity with a focus on flagship species (such as the African elephant) and endangered habitats (including Itigi-Sumbu thicket); ii) maintenance of ecosystem function and integrity; and iii) reduction in the vulnerability of communities surrounding Nsumbu NP to climate change.

3.2. Objectives

The objectives of the Nsumbu National Park Climate Change Strategy are to:1. Understand the impacts of climate change on Nsumbu NP.2. Increase the climate change-resilience of Nsumbu NP.3. Enhance the climate change-resilience of stakeholders and adjacent communities. 4. Communicate the impacts of, and Nsumbu NP’s response to, climate change to relevant


3.3. Scope

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The Nsumbu National Park Climate Change Strategy (Nsumbu NP CCS) recommends the preliminary adaptation and mitigation actions that are required to manage the impacts of climate change on the park. The strategy is consistent with various global, national and local plans and strategies (see Section 11, Alignment), including the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Strategic Plan 2011–2020 and the Aichi Targets6 and Zambia’s Second National Biodiversity and Action Plan (NBSAP–2)7.

Climate change is a long-term challenge and this strategy is an incremental “first step” to what must be a long-term and enduring response. The Nsumbu NP CCS is an adaptive tool subject to ongoing review. As a result, its recommended climate change adaptation and mitigation actions will be amended where necessary as the understanding of the impacts of climate change on the park and its surroundings progresses.

4. Nsumbu National Park background

4.1. General information

Nsumbu National Park is located across the districts of Mpulungu and Nsama in Zambia’s Northern Province and falls within the biodiverse Albertine Rift region of East-Central Africa8

(Figure 2). Covering an area ~2,020 km2, Nsumbu NP was declared a National Park on 25 February 1972. The park was established to manage and conserve the area’s inter alia: i) various land types; ii) terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems; iii) endemic and endangered Itigi-Sumbu thicket; iv) biodiversity; and v) historic and cultural sites for economic, recreational and scientific purposes9.

4.2. Geographical features and topography

Approximately 80 km of Lake Tanganyika’s shoreline is located within Nsumbu NP, including four bays (Kasaba, Kala, Nkamba and Sumbu) and Nundo Head Peninsula. Apart from the shoreline, a 1.6 km buffer zone of the lake is also located within the park’s managed area. A large section of Nsumbu NP’s eastern ‘border’, therefore, is located on Lake Tanganyika. The majority of the park’s western border is formed by the Tondwa Game Management Areaiii

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(GMA, 540 km2) in the Nsama District. Tondwa GMA also forms part of the park’s northern border, with the rest being formed by the Kaputa GMA (3,600 km2, Figure 2)iv. These two GMAs also serve as buffers for Nsumbu NP. In terms of international borders, Zambia’s border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) lies ~30 km to the north of Nsumbu NP, while the Tanzanian border is situated on Lake Tanganyika to the east (Figure 2).

The south-eastern border of Nsumbu NP is formed partly by the Lufubu River, which forms valleys of up to 300 m in depth along sections of its course. Several smaller rivers and valleys are found throughout the rest of the park, which is predominantly a plateau covered by rocky hills and outcrops. Nsumbu NP’s varied topography, including the rocky shoreline of Lake Tanganyika, results in elevation ranges between 800 and 1,250 m across the park.

iii GMAs act as buffer zones to National Parks, allowing for the free movement of animals out of and into the parks and GMAs. This is meant to ensure that the wildlife in the GMAs is constantly replenished from the populations in the National Parks and in some instances vice-versa. Human settlement is permitted in GMAs and wildlife use is focused on trophy hunting (foreigners) and hunting for meat by local and national residents. Despite their size and potential, the wildlife resources in many GMAs are in a state of steep decline and are not sufficiently productive in ecological, economic or social terms.iv Additional maps of Nsumbu NP and the Nsama and Mpulungu districts are presented in Appendix I.

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Figure 2. Location of Nsumbu National Park, Northern Province, Zambia. Source: Kevin Emslie, C4 EcoSolutions.

Lake Tanganyika is an African Great Lake. It is the deepest lake on the continent (1,470 m, making it the second deepest in the world) and holds ~16% of the world’s freshwater (more than any other lake in the world). Furthermore, it has a surface area of ~32,900 km2, a shoreline of ~1,828 km, is ~676 km in length, averages 50 km in width and has a catchment area of ~231,000 km2. Fish from the lake provide 25–40% of the dietary protein of ~1 million people who live around it.

4.3. Biodiversity

Flora

The park lies mainly within the Central Zambezian Miombo Woodlands ecoregion. This ecoregion is a dense forest that cuts across central Africa and is one of the largest ecological zones on the continent. Its area covers the northern part of Zambia and stretches through to Angola, the DRC, Tanzania, Burundi and Malawi. The region is characterized by plateaus, nutrient-poor soils, a tropical climate, and long dry seasons lasting approximately seven months. This ecological region is also home to a wide range of wildlife including miombo flora of tall trees and grassland underneath. At a finer scale, the park is floristically diverse, being composed of numerous vegetation communities that are outlined below9.

Evergreen riverine forest, located along rivers and the lake shoreline. Dominant species include inter alia sycamore fig (Ficus sycamorus L.), white thorn (Acacia polyacantha), candelabra tree (Euphorbia ingens) and African mahogany (Khaya anthotheca – listed as vulnerable by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species11).

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Munga woodland, a deciduous forest, which is found mainly in lakeside valleys and disturbed lands. This community is characterised by inter alia Acacia, Ziziphus, Combretum and Terminalia tree species and supports high densities of puku (Kobus vardonii) and warthog (Phacochoerus africanus).

Miombo woodland (semi-evergreen) is found on the park’s plateau areas inland from the shores of Lake Tanganyika. This vegetation is made up of “light” and “dense” Miombo woodland and is interspersed with grassland and marshes. “Light” miombo woodland is dominated by East African afrormosia (Pericopsis angolensis), Kudu-berry (Pseudolachnosylis maprouneifolia), as well as Combretum and Terminalia species. “Dense” miombo woodland is characterised by Brachystegia, Julbernardia and Isoberlinia tree species.

Shrubland occurs on shallow, nutrient-poor soils and is characterised by Terminalia spp., Combretum spp., sickle bush (Dichrostachys cinerea) and large jujube (Ziziphus abyssinica). Common grasses found in shrubland include Andropogon spp., Sporobolus spp. and Digitaria spp.

Itigi-Sumbu thicket is a rare and endangered type of shrubland dominated by Baphia, Combretum, Bussea and Grewia species. One of these species, (Baphia speciosa) is endemic to northern Zambia and is listed as near threatened by the IUCN Red Data List of Threatened Species12. Itigi-sumbu thicket is found mainly on valley slopes and hills near Lake Tanganyika, as well as on some parts of the plateau. The thicket is a natural habitat for black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis), which is now locally extinct because of poaching.

Grassland is made up of dambosv and plains with a sparse tree cover. Dominant grass species include those belonging to the Imperata, Cymbopogon, Chloris, Dactylotenium and Urochloa genera. The dambos are characterised by Cyperus spp. and Imperata spp.

Fauna

Nsumbu NP’s unique topography and terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems provide the habitats required to support a diverse selection of fauna9. Historically, over 100 mammalian species have been recorded in the park, although many of these species are now rarely seen or locally extinct, primarily as a result of poaching and habitat loss. Flagship and characteristic species occurring in the park include African elephant (Loxodonta africana), Blue Duiker (Philantomba monticola), Sitatunga (Tragelaphus spekii), Puku and Hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). 295 species of birds have been recorded in the park. These include inter alia five species of vulture (such as Lappet-faced and Palm-nut), Shoebill Stork (Balaeniceps rex), Pel’s Fishing owl (Scotopelia peli), Meyer’s Parrot (Poicephalus meyeri) and Narina Trogon (Apaloderma narina). Migratory birds make use of the habitats provided by the parks lake zones and wetlands as staging areas, making them internationally important in terms of the conservation of birdlife.

Nsumbu NP is also home to ~40 reptile and 11 recorded frog and toad species. In terms of reptiles, the park is one of few areas where both the Nile (Crocodylus niloticus) and Slender-snouted (Crocodylus cataphractus) crocodiles occur. Furthermore, the endemic Lake Tanganyika water snake (Lycodonomorplus bicolor) is found in the park’s lake extents.

Apart from the amphibians and reptiles present in the park, over 1,300 fish species are found in Lake Tanganyika. These include cichlids and non-cichlids. Cichlids are commonly targeted during sport fishing, snorkelling and scuba diving, and are also exported for the ornamental tropical fish trade. Cichlid diversity is highest on the rocky sections of Lake Tanganyika’s rocky

v Complex shallow wetlands.

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shoreline. Non-cichlids found in the lake include clupeids such as Stolothrissa tanganicae and Limnothrissa miodon, both referred to locally as Kapenta fish, which are the main commercially fished species. Other notable fish species occurring in the lake include Tigerfish (Hydrocynus vittatus) and Armoured Catfish (Chrysichthys mabusi)9.

4.4. Cultural and historic resources

Several culturally and historically significant sites are located in Nsumbu NP. These sites still have spiritual and traditional relevance today and protection offered by the area’s classification as a national park is essential for their protection and preservation. These sites include: i) Nsumbu cemetery; ii) Nsumbu island; iii) Nundo rock shrine; iv) Kasaba bay shrine; v) Tondwa archaeological surface findings; vi) Lake Kako iron age site; and vii) Chika and Mwepwe falls9.

4.5. Management

Nsumbu NP management falls under the DNPW (a department of the Ministry of Tourism and Arts), which is responsible for the park’s governance and management. Nsumbu NP management is headed by a Senior Rangervi (under the supervision of the Kaputa-based Wildlife Warden), who is based at the park’s headquarters at Nsumbu Sector Station, Sumbu. The area under management’s jurisdiction includes the park itself, as well as Tondwa and Kaputa GMA’s. The Senior Ranger co-manages the GMA’s alongside the chairperson of the Nsama Community Resource Board (CRB)vii. CRBs represent communities on the park’s boundaries and are mandated to develop an integrated approach to the management of human and natural resources in a Community Partnership Park (CPP), GMA or Open Area in terms of an approved General Management Plan (GMP)13. The Nsama CRB is supported financially by the DNPW and the Frankfurt Zoological Society (FZS) (see Section 4.8.).

4.6. Surrounding communities

Most of the communities surrounding Nsumbu NP are made up of the Tabwa or Lungu peoples. The Tabwa inhabit areas on the western boundary of the park while the Lungu are concentrated in the east (in the Lyendwe and Kabiolwe village clusters)9. Other communities are located on the southern and eastern boundaries of the park and are comprised of the Bemba and Lyendwa peoples respectively. Poverty is rife within these communities. Examples of settlements on the park’s boundaries are Chishela village (location of the Mutundu Wildlife Camp) in the west and Sumbu village on the Lake Tanganyika shore in the north east. The villagers of Chishela are primarily smallholder farmers, cultivating crops such as cassava, rice and maize. Fishing in Lake Mweru Wantipa is also a common livelihood practised by the villagers of Chishela. However, this livelihood is becoming less common because of overfishing and decreasing water levels which have resulted in a reduction of fish stocks. Fishing is the main livelihood practised in Sumbu village. Similarly to Lake Mweru Wantipa, the fish stocks of Lake Tanganyika are in decline. With fishing seen as a relatively lucrative livelihood that provides immediate returns, the number of people migrating to the village from surrounding areas continues to rise. This is putting further pressure on declining fish stocks, which is forcing fishermen to turn to alternative livelihoods (such as farming and charcoal production) and to resort to illegal fishing and poaching to supplement their incomes and feed their families14.

vi Mr. Samuel Zgozi.vii The Nsama CRB’s headquarters are located in Chisela.

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Apart from the communities located on the park’s boundaries, there are also what may be described as illegal settlements within Nsumbu NP. These include: i) Chomba Wa Kasaba in the east; ii) Chisane Traditional Fishing Camp on the shoreline of Lake Tanganyika in the north; and iii) the Mibanda “farming” settlement in the west. The population of the Mibanda settlement is dominated by immigrants from the DRC and is notorious for illegal activities including: i) deforestation; ii) charcoal production; and iii) poaching, using both snares (targeting small game) and military-grade rifles (primarily for large game).

4.7. Tourism

Nsumbu NP has unrivalled potential to become one of the country’s top attractions for both local and international tourists. The park’s varied landscapes, its location on the shores of Lake Tanganyika and its rich biodiversity allow for multiple tourist activities such as game and bird viewing, hiking, lake cruises, water sports and fishing. Furthermore, the park is accessible by land, water and air.

Despite all of the above, the tourism potential of the park remains untapped because of inter alia: i) inadequate and limited accommodation; ii) substandard infrastructure; and iii) a lack of investment and development. The development of a tourist resort at Kasaba Bay (including the upgrading of current infrastructure) has been planned to strengthen the local tourism industry and provide employment. However, progress has stalled and to date, only a portion of the planned infrastructural upgrades and construction has been completed13.

4.8. Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) Involvement

Conservation Lake Tanganyika (CLT) was formed by Craig Zytkow in 2012 in response to poaching and the overexploitation of resources in Nsumbu NP13,14. It has since started working alongside the FZS on the Nsumbu Tanganyika Conservation Project15. CLT strives to promote and conserve the biodiversity of Lake Tanganyika for the sustainable benefits of local communities and the government of Zambia. The focus of CLT’s work in Nsumbu NP includes the following inter alia: protecting elephants, one of the park’s flagship species; supporting protected area management at the landscape-level (including Nsumbu NP and

Tondwa GMA); assisting with and supporting law enforcement activities (both terrestrial and aquatic); providing infrastructure (such as a control room); and supporting local CRBs, particularly in Nsama, in capacity building, resource provision and

employment (for example, village scouts).

The Nature Conservancy is implementing the Lake Tanganyika Freshwater Atlas Project. The goal of the project is to support multiple stakeholder efforts and agendas to conserve and sustainably develop the resources of Lake Tanganyika through the development of a freshwater atlas. This includes the collection and amalgamation of a comprehensive set of data on the region13.

Although not an NGO like CLT or the Nature Conservancy, the Lake Tanganyika Development Project (LTDP) is being implemented in the region to: i) promote the sustainable and equitable management and use of Lake Tanganyika’s natural resources; ii) improve local livelihoods through investing in economic infrastructure; iii) develop the capacity of human resources; and iv) develop market linkages and value chains for natural resource products. In 2017 the project

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secured additional funding to pursue a management planning process for Nsumbu NP. This includes: revising the park’s boundaries to officially include the Inangu Peninsular and Nkamba Bay; ensuring that the park’s boundaries are clearly demarcated; funding and facilitating a new GMP for Nsumbu NP focusing on biodiversity, including a

strategic law enforcement plan and a participatory land use plan for Tondwa GMA; supplying equipment and other resources to increase the DNPW’s operational capacities

within the park; and training Nsumbu NP staff to improve management capacity and skillsets13.

4.9. Current challenges

Nsumbu NP is faced with many challenges that are having negative impacts on biodiversity, natural resources, habitat integrity and local poverty rates. These challenges include inter alia: i) poaching; ii) overfishing; iii) inadequate demarcation of park boundaries; iv) settlement and agricultural encroachment; v) the proposed construction of an airport in the ecologically sensitive Kasaba Bay area; vi) deforestation; vii) inadequate waste management (in terrestrial and aquatic zones); viii) land and soil degradation; ix) erosion (particularly on the banks of the Lufubu river and around bridges crossing the Ngoma and Chitutu streams); x) frequent and uncontrolled wildfires; xi) invasive alien species – particularly plants such as giant sensitive tree (Mimosa pigra) and wild sage (Lantana camara); xii) limited financial and institutional capacities; xiii) limited human resources capacity to implement management actions and effective law enforcement; xiv) climate change; and xv) lack of awareness of staff and local communities on management aspects such as ecology and climate change, as well as the actions necessary for their mitigation and adaptation9,13,14,16.

5. Climate change projections

5.1. Baseline climatic conditions 5.1.1. Zambia

Zambia’s climate is generally classified as humid sub-tropical, with most of the country falling under Zone C of Köppen-Geiger climatic classification systemviii (Figure 3). Some areas of the country, however, are classified under other zones. Areas in the east, north-east and west of the Zambia have an equatorial climate (Zone A), while a fraction of the south-west has an arid climate (Zone B). The Köppen-Geiger climate classification system further classifies Zambia’s climate within these three zones as follows17,18: the warm temperate (Zone C) areas are classified as having a dry winter and a hot summer

(Cwa); areas with an equatorial climate (Zone A) are classified as having a dry winter (Aw); and the arid region (Zone B) in the south-west is classified as hot and arid, and having steppe

(grassland) rainfall conditions (250–500 mm per annum) (BSh).

The high altitudes of the East African plateau prevent temperatures from reaching extremes, with maximums in summer rarely exceeding 32°C16. October is the hottest month of the year, viii One of the most widely used climate classification systems. It is based on annual and monthly averages of temperature and rainfall. This system includes five main climatic zones: i) A – Equatorial; ii) B – Arid, with deficient rainfall throughout the year; iii) C – Warm temperate, with mild winters; iv) D – Snow, with cold winters; and v) E – Polar, with extremely cold winters and summers. Within these climatic zones, a more accurate classification is allocated according to precipitation and temperature.

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with an average temperature of 25.4°C 19. Minimum temperatures during winter seldom drop below 15°C, with July being Zambia’s coldest month, averaging 17.8°C 18(Table 1 and Figure 4). In terms of rainfall, Zambia’s wettest month is January, with an average of 224.3 mm. July is the country’s driest month, receiving on average 0.1 mm of rainfall18 (Table 1 and Figure 4). This rainfall seasonality is strongly influenced by the location of the ITCZ (Figure 5). During Zambia’s dry season – May/June to October/November – the ITCZ is located north-east of the country. This tropical rain belt moves over the north of Zambia in November and subsequently extends southwards, resulting in a north-south latitudinal rainfall gradient.

The country’s three agro-ecological zones are defined by the north-south rainfall gradient20 (Figure 6). These zones are described briefly below.

Zone I is located in the south and southwestern parts of Zambia and has a mean annual rainfall (MAR) of 800 mm. Rainfall in this zone has been erratic over the past three decades, which has contributed to it being the driest and most unproductive agro-ecological zone in the country.

Zone II is a band that extends from east to west through central Zambia. This zone has a MAR of 800–1,000 mm and has the highest agricultural potential.

Zone III covers the northern extent of the country and has a MAR of more than 1,000 mm.

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Figure 3. Map showing the Köppen-Geiger Climatic Zones of Southern Africa. Source: http://www.sadc.int/themes/meteorology-climate/ .

http://www.sadc.int/themes/meteorology-climate/

Table 1. Rainfall and temperature seasonality across Zambia20,21 and mean monthly temperature (MMT) and rainfall (MMR)22. Adapted from Foden and Smart 201616.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

~95% of MAR21Cool dry winter,

15–27°C 21 Hot and dry, 27–32°C 21

Warm and wet21

Cool winter, 15–20°C 20

Hot dry season, 22–27°C 20

MMT (°C) 23.3 23.5 23.4 22.3 20.5 18.3 17.8 20.4 23.4 25.4 25.1 23.9

MMR (mm) 224.3 182.7 157 39.8 4.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 3.5 24.2 108.6 209

Figure 4. Mean monthly temperature and rainfall for Zambia from 1991–2015. Source: http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm?page=country_historical_climate&ThisCCode=ZMB#.

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http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm?page=country_historical_climate&ThisCCode=ZMB

Figure 5. Location and effect of ITCZ on rainfall in southern Africa: a) dry season (winter); and b) wet season (summer). Source: http://scrippsblogs.ucsd.edu/cens/2012/03/20/creating-the-environmental-conditions-for-violence/.

The amount of rain falling during Zambia’s rainfall season (November to April), although being primarily determined by the ITCZ’s western tip (Figure 5), is also influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)ix, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Node (SAN)20. The combined effects of these phenomena have resulted in considerable variation in Zambia’s inter-annual and inter-decadal rainfall figures22. Such rainfall variations and the resulting shortfalls in water availability have negative effects on local livelihood activities, such as subsistence farming and pastoralism.

5.1.2. Northern Province

Under the Köppen-Geiger climatic classification system17,18 (Figure 3), most of Zambia’s Northern Province is classified as warm temperate, having hot summers and dry winters (Cwa). The remaining north-western corner is classified as having an equatorial climate with dry winters (Aw). Furthermore, the province is located in Agro-Ecological Zone III (Figure 6), receiving a MAR of more than 1,000 mm 23.

ix The ENSO causes dry conditions during the usually wet summer months in the southern half of Zambia, while in the north it results in wetter than average conditions during this period. In 1997/1998, flooding and drought, attributable to El Niño were experienced in the north and south of the country respectively.

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a b

http://scrippsblogs.ucsd.edu/cens/2012/03/20/creating-the-environmental-conditions-for-violence/

Figure 6. Zambia’s three agro-ecological zones23.

The capital city of the Northern Province is Kasama (see Figure 2 in Section 3, Nsumbu NP background), which has a climate classification of Cwa. The MAR and temperature of Kasama are 1,292 mm and 20.2°C, respectively. Kasama’s driest month is June, during which the city often receives no rainfall. Rainfall in Kasama reaches its peak in January, averaging 279 mm per year. In terms of temperature, October, with an average of 23.2°C, is the hottest month, while July is the coldest month, averaging 16.7°C 24.

5.1.3. Mpulungu and Nsama Districts

Nsumbu National Park is situated in the districts of Nsama and Mpulungux in the north-western corner of Zambia’s Northern Province (see Figure 2 in Section 3, Nsumbu NP background). The climate classification allocated to these two districts is Aw (equatorial with dry winters), with a MAR of more than 1,000 mm 17,18. A summary of the baseline climatic data for the Mpulungu and Nsama districts is provided in Table 2 below.

Within the Mpulungu district, climatic data for the harbour town of Mpulungu and fishing village of Sumbu (located on the border of Nsumbu NP) is provided in Tables 3 and 4, respectively. The mean annual temperature of Mpulungu is 24.3°C 25, while that of Sumbu is 25.5°C 26. MAR at these two locations is 1,109 and 1,131 mm for Sumbu and Mpulungu, respectively.

Table 2. Summary of baseline climatic data for the Nsumbu and Nsama districts. Source: Foden and Smart 201616.

x The majority of the park is located within Nsama, while a small section in the south east of the park is located in Mpulungu.

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Climatic variable Baseline(1975 mean)

Mean annual temperature (°C) 22.71 (±1.86)Max. temperature in warmest month (°C) 31.11 (±1.60)Mean annual rainfall (mm) 1,274.67 (±64.66)Mean dry season rainfall (May–Sept) (mm) 24.17 (±3.01)Mean wet season rainfall (Oct–Apr) (mm) 1,162.20 (±59.39)Rainfall in wettest month (mm) 236.06 (±13.99)Potential evapotranspiration (mm) 1,697.84 (±84.16)

Table 3. Climatic data for the town of Mpulungu. Adapted from: https://en.climate-data.org/location/25931/. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Avg. temperature (°C) 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.8 23.6 22.2 22 23.5 25.2 26.5 25.5 24.5Avg. min. temperature (°C) 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.3 17.4 15.4 15 16.5 18.3 20 19.8 19.4Avg. max. temperature (°C) 29.5 29.8 29.8 30.3 29.8 29 29 30.5 32.2 33 31.3 29.7Avg. rainfall (mm) 223 219 217 93 13 1 0 0 4 14 115 232

Table 4. Climatic data for the village of Sumbu. Adapted from: https://en.climate-data.org/location/1008279/ . Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Avg. temperature (°C) 25.8 26.1 25.8 26.1 25 23.5 23.2 24.7 26.4 27.4 26.7 25.8Avg. min. temperature (°C) 20.8 21 20.7 20.6 18.8 16.6 16.1 17.7 19.6 21.1 21.2 20.8Avg. max. temperature (°C) 30.9 31.2 31 31.6 31.2 30.5 30.3 31.8 33.3 33.7 32.2 30.9Avg. rainfall (mm) 222 206 197 88 16 0 0 0 5 20 126 229

5.2. Climate change

5.2.1. Observed climate change

Globally, temperatures increased by an average of 0.85°C between 1880 and 201227. Such temperature increases are particularly evident in Africa, with the continent warming by between 0.5 and 2°C over the last 50 to 100 years28. Furthermore, according to independent analyses conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2016 is the warmest year since record-keeping began in 188029.

Southern Africa is experiencing increases in both mean annual and minimum temperatures, as well as in the frequency of extremely hot days (Table 5). Although trends in rainfall patterns are more challenging to identify than those related to temperature, the majority of reports from Southern Africa suggest that rainfall is decreasing in most parts of the region (Table 6)16.

Observed climate change in Zambia is similar to that observed across the SADC. Changes include: i) increases in mean monthly and annual temperature; ii) decreases in rainfall of the central and southern parts of the country; and iii) increases in rainfall variability the north of the country (Tables 5 and 6)16. According to local community representatives, park staff and stakeholders, these changes are also taking place at the local level (in and around Nsumbu NP). In consultations held during the strategy’s inception mission, representatives from the villages of Chishela and Sumbu, as well as park staff and stakeholders (CLT) confirmed that temperatures are rising, and rainfall is becoming increasingly erratic (resulting in more frequent drought periods) in the area14.

14

https://en.climate-data.org/location/1008279/


Table 5. Reported trends in temperature data for the SADC and Zambia. Adapted from Foden and Smart 201616.Extent Temperature

SADC(1901–2009)30

The region experienced a strong warming trend over the 20th century. Temperatures increased more steeply during the latter years of the 20th

century. Minimum and maximum temperatures have, on average, increased by

0.06°C and 0.05°C per decade, respectively. After 1976, minimum and maximum temperatures increased by 0.27°C and

0.25°C per decade, respectively.Zambia

(1970–2000)31,32 Mean monthly temperatures during November and December have

increased.

Zambia(1960–2003)33

Mean annual temperature has increased by 1.3°C, at a rate of ~0.29°C per decade.

The frequency of hot days and nights has increased significantly throughout the year.

The frequency of cold days and nights has decreased significantly throughout the year.

Table 6. Reported trends in rainfall data for southern Africa/SADC and Zambia. Adapted from Foden and Smart 201616.

Extent RainfallSADC

(1901–2009)34 No trend or change in variabilityxi.

Southern Africa (1961–2005)35 Statistically significant increases in the length of the dry season.

Southern Africa and Zambia (1979–2007)32

Decreases in annual rainfall from the equator to a latitude of 20°S. Decreases in rainfall between December and March across Zambia.

Zambia(1970–2000)31,32

Decreases in the amount and variability of rainfall over Agro-ecological Zone’s I and III, respectively.

Decreases in annual rainfall were observed over the last 30 years in southern Zambia.

Decreases in mean monthly rainfall during January and February.

Zambia(1960–2003)36

A decrease in mean annual rainfall by ~1.9 mm per month per decade, with a ~7.1 mm per month per decade decline in rainfall between December and February.

A non-significant change in the contribution of extreme events to total rainfall.

Zambia(2007–2017)37 Increases in rainfall in northern Zambia (up to 10%)xii.

5.2.2. Future climate change projections

The IPCC predicts that mean global temperatures will rise by 1–4.1°C by 2100 (relative to the 1990s)16. This range is attributable to several greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) scenarios, including a best-case scenario where GHG emissions decline and a “business as usual” scenario where emissions continue to increase at current rates. Relative to global values, most of Africa is predicted to experience more extreme temperature increases. These increases are projected to be most severe in parts of northern, western and southern Africa, reaching as high

xi High levels of inter-annual rainfall variability are a persistent feature of the region.xii Based on the results of global climate models prepared for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Extreme seasonal precipitation was defined in terms of 10-year return levels obtained by inverting a generalized Pareto distribution fitted to excesses above a predefined high threshold. Both control (2007) and future climate change precipitation extremes were estimated. The future-to-control climate ratio of 10-year return levels was then used as an indicator for the likely changes in extreme seasonal precipitation.

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as 6°C under the “business as usual” (RCP 8.5)xiii scenario16. Increases in temperature in southern Africa are expected to be highest in its southern and western parts. Changes in rainfall, which are especially challenging to predict, are likely to show increasing and decreasing patterns in the east and west of the region, respectively.

5.2.2.1. Climate change in Zambia and Nsumbu NP

Temperature

In Zambia, mean annual temperatures are expected to rise by between 2.0 and 2.7°C by 2055 (under RCP4.5)xiv, with increases being higher in the west of the country. At the district-level, temperatures in Mpulungu and Nsama are projected to increase by ~2.1°C (Table 7). In Nsumbu NP, which occupies area within each of these districts, mean annual temperatures are expected to rise by 2.0°C on the Lake Tanganyika shoreline and 2.2°C further inland16.

Maximum temperatures during the warmest month of the year (October) are expected to increase by ~2.6°C throughout Mpulungu and Nsama. According to local villagers, this is already happeningxv. They reported that temperatures in October are much hotter than in the past14. Similarly, the maximum temperatures during the warmest month in Nsumbu NP are predicted to rise by between 2.3 and 2.6°C by 205516,xvi.

Table 7. Main temperature variables for the Mpulungu and Nsama districts, for the present (1950–2000) and for 2055 (mean of 2041–2070), including their absolute changes. Values highlighted in red indicate a change of more than 5% from the baseline value. Adapted from Foden and Smart 201616.

Baseline (1975 mean)

Future (2055 mean) Change

Mean annual temperature (°C) 22.7 24.8 2.1Max. temperature in warmest month (°C) 31.1 33.7 2.6

Rainfall

As mentioned previously, accurately predicting changes in rainfall patterns is challenging. However, the results from various climate models have allowed broad rainfall projections to be calculated for Zambia. Projections of changes in MAR across Zambia indicate increases of up to 15% by 2055 in the north, while rainfall in the south is expected to decrease by a similar margin (under RCP 4.5). At the district-level, across Mpulungu and Nsama, predicted changes in MAR are minor, with increases of ~2% expected by 2055 (Table 8). Slight drying is also predicted along the Lake Tanganyika shoreline, whereas changes in Nsumbu NP’s MAR are expected to be negligible16. These predictions were reinforced by Nsumbu NP staff and stakeholders from the fishing village of Sumbu on the shores of Lake Tanganyika who indicated that rainfall is already decreasing locally, while the amount of rainfall received further inland at the village of Chishela (which borders the park) has remained consistent14.

As with MAR, wet season (October to April) rainfall across Mpulungu and Nsama is expected to increase only slightly (~2%) by 2055 (Table 8). However, changes in the distribution of rainfall throughout the year and during the wet season are expected to be more considerable. For

xiii High emissions. This Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is consistent with a future with no policy changes to reduce GHG emissions. Source: https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/A-guide-to-RCPs.pdf. xiv Moderate emissions. This RCP is consistent with a future with relatively ambitious GHG emissions reductions.xv From the villages Chishela and Sumbu, which are on the border of Nsumbu NP.xvi For more detailed information on projected temperature changes refer to reference 16 (Foden and Smart 2016).

16

https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/A-guide-to-RCPs.pdf

https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/A-guide-to-RCPs.pdf

example, rainfall during the wettest month of the year (December/January) is expected to increase by as much as 5.8% by 2055. This increase is expected to come in the form of more frequent extreme rainfall events. On-the-ground observations by local villagers of an increase in the variability (including a rise in the frequency of extreme rainfall events) of wet season rainfall indicate that this is already being observed in the area14. Mean wet season rainfall is also expected to rise in Nsumbu NP, with a greater increase predicted in the south-west than in the west. As a whole, the park (and the region) is expected to experience increased rainfall variability, with a rise in frequency of extreme rainfall events and flooding during the wet season16.

Table 8. Main rainfall variables for the Mpulungu and Nsama districts, for the present (1950–2000) and for 2055 (mean of 2041–2070), including their absolute changes. Values highlighted in blue indicate a change of more than 5% from the baseline value. Adapted from Foden and Smart 201616.


Future (2055 mean) Change

Mean annual rainfall (mm) 1,274.7 1,300.1 25.4Mean dry season rainfall (May–Sept) (mm) 24.2 23.3 -0.9Mean wet season rainfall (Oct–April) (mm) 1,162.2 1,186.1 23.9Rainfall in wettest month (Dec/Jan) (mm) 236.1 249.9 13.8

Similar to wet season rainfall, changes are also expected during the dry season. Rainfall during this period is expected to decrease slightly; ~3.5% (Table 7). However, rainfall during the first month of the wet season (October) is expected to decline considerably, resulting in the later onset of the wet season (Table 9)16,xvii. This is already taking place on-the-ground with local stakeholdersxviii observing the onset of the wet season occurring as late as early December rather than during October14. This is likely to result in an increased frequency and intensity of drought events, as well as water shortages.

Table 9. Mean monthly rainfall for the early wet season months for the Mpulungu and Nsama districts, for the present (1950–2000) and 2055 (mean of 2041–2070). Values highlighted in gold indicate a significant change from the baseline value. Adapted from Foden and Smart 201616.

October November DecemberCurrent rainfall (mm) 29.2 139.6 2362055 rainfall (mm) 24.1 144.9 246Change in rainfall (mm) -5.1 (-17.5%) 5.2 (3.8%) 10 (4.3%)

Potential evapotranspiration

Historically, PET across the districts of Mpulungu and Nsama increases on a gradient from south-east to north-west. Projected climate changes, however, indicate increases in the opposite direction, from 3.2% in the north-west to 5.9% in the south-east. An average increase of 4.4% in PRT is expected for the area (including Nsumbu NP) (Table 10)16,xix. In combination with increasing temperatures and a negligible increase in MAR (see Rainfall above), such an increase in PET will result in a reduction in: i) the water available to recharge rivers, lakes, wetlands and underground aquifers; and ii) soil moisture content, which will be detrimental to both wild and crop plant species.

xvii For more detailed information on projected rainfall changes refer to reference 16 (Foden and Smart 2016).xviii Including Nsumbu NP staff and locals from the surrounding villages of Chishela and Sumbu.xix For more detailed information on projected changes in PET refer to reference 16 (Foden and Smart 2016).

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Table 10. Potential evapotranspiration for the Mpulungu and Nsama districts, for the present (1950–2000) and for 2055 (mean of 2041–2070), including its absolute change. Adapted from Foden and Smart 201616.


Future(2055 mean) Change

Potential evapotranspiration (mm) 1,697.8 1,772.7 74.9 (4.4%)

6. Impacts of climate change on Nsumbu National Park

As detailed in Section 5, the main climate change predictions for Nsumbu NP include: increases in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; a longer dry season; a shorter, more intense rainfall season; and a rise in wet season rainfall.

The expected impacts of these climate change predictions on Nsumbu NP and its surroundings (including GMAs and Lake Tanganyika) were identified by Foden and Smart (2016)16. There is a degree of uncertainty regarding how some of these climate change impacts will specifically affect the natural, cultural, social and economic aspects of Nsumbu NP and its surroundings. However, the likely implications are discussed briefly below and further summarised in Figure 7xx.

6.1. Increase in the amount of rain falling during a shorter wet season

6.1.1. Rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events and floods

The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events and floods, especially in areas near rivers (such as the Lufubu river), are expected to increase. Impacts include inter alia: i) damage to infrastructure (for example buildings, bridges and the Lufubu river hydropower project); ii) loss of life (human and animal); iii) direct damage to crops and waterlogging of fieldsxxi,38 resulting in declines in agricultural productivity; iv) increased run-off, which will reduce groundwater recharge rates; and v) erosion and sedimentation. Some of the consequences of these impacts are listed belowxxii.

Revenue losses for the local tourism industry attributable to damaged infrastructure (such as roads, bridges, buildings, and water and electricity supply lines).

Reductions in income generation and food security of local communities reliant on crop production. As a result, more people will become dependent on livelihoods such as fishing, which are also expected to be negatively affected by climate change, placing further pressure on the associated natural resources.

Water shortages caused by a decrease in basal flow rates of rivers will lead to increased competition for this natural resource, both intraspecifically between humans and interspecifically between humans and wildlife.

xx For more detailed information on the impacts of climate change on Nsumbu NP refer to reference 15 (Foden and Smart 2016).xxi Waterlogging will reduce crop yields by decreasing the oxygen available for roots, consequently inhibiting respiration. Other gases detrimental to root growth – including carbon dioxide and ethylene – also accumulate around the roots. Furthermore, waterlogged soils release increased amounts of nitrous oxide (N2O), a particularly damaging GHG.xxii For more detailed information on the impacts of extreme rainfall events and floods on Nsumbu NP refer to reference 16 (Foden and Smart 2016).

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6.1.2. Increased soil erosion

Soil erosion will be compounded in Nsumbu NP and the surrounding GMAs. During heavy downpours of rain, raindrops make direct contact with the soil causing their energy to be dispersed by clay molecules, which split up. The resulting free clay molecules block the pores in the soil, which leads to run-off and consequently erosion. Exposed land situated on long slopes is particularly prone to erosion39. Along with run-off, erosion results in sediment removal and leaching of soils, where nutrients – including nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) –40

and organic matter40 are lost. The loss of such nutrients and fertile soil will lead to declines in agricultural and rangeland productivity, with knock-on effects on food security and income generation. Furthermore, erosion will lead to an increase in the sedimentation of rivers and lakesxxiii.

6.1.3. Increased sedimentation of rivers and lakes

Sedimentation will be amplified by increased river flow rates and erosion attributable to increased run-off and flooding. An increase in river flow rates will result in channel widening, bank steepening and an increase in sediment deposition in the lakes (Tanganyika and Mweru Wantipa) into which they drain. Sedimentation of these lakes will further be intensified by erosion. The negative effects of sedimentation include inter alia: i) damage of critical or sensitive aquatic habitats; ii) decrease in fish stocks iii) alterations in fish migration behaviour; iv) disturbance of nutrient balance; v) increases in turbidity; and vi) the loss of submerged vegetation41.

Declines in aquatic diversity will negatively impact livelihoods such as fishing, resulting in food insecurity and a loss of income-generating capacity. This will force locals to rely on alternative livelihoods such as crop farming, which will result in more natural land being converted to farmland and will increase the potential for human-wildlife conflict. Furthermore, a decrease in aquatic biodiversity (particularly fish species, see Section 4.3.2.) will have negative impacts on the local tourism industry, which is reliant on the lake for related activities such as sports fishing, snorkelling and scuba diving.

6.1.4. Additional impacts related to a shorter more intense rainfall season

An increase in average wet season rainfall is likely to result in an increase in plant growth. This will stimulate a rise in fire frequency and intensity (see below) during the dry season as a greater fuel load (plant biomass) will be available.

Some of the increased plant growth mentioned above will be in the form of invasive species (such as giant sensitive tree and wild sage). These species typically respond rapidly to rainfall and disturbance, while also competing with indigenous plants and crops for water, nutrients, as well as light42.

Certain pests – including parasites – and diseases affecting humans (for example, malaria), as well as animals and plants (such as trypanosomiasisxxiv and fall armywormxxv respectively), may become more prevalent in conditions of increased wet season rainfall.

xxiii For more detailed information on the impacts of an increase in soil erosion on Nsumbu NP refer to reference 16 (Foden and Smart 2016).xxiv Also known as nagana.xxv Fall armyworm in Zambia: https://www.iied.org/fall-army-worm-maize-attack-case-for-diversity-farm-fork.

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https://www.iied.org/fall-army-worm-maize-attack-case-for-diversity-farm-fork

6.2. Temperature increases and a longer dry season

6.2.1. An increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts and water shortages

Although both mean annual and wet season rainfall in Nsumbu NP are expected to increase under future climate change conditions, there will nonetheless be a rise in the frequency of drought periods and water shortages. This will be caused by three main factors. Firstly, a longer dry season will increase the likelihood of water shortages. Secondly, an increase in the intensity of wet season rainfall, including more frequent extreme rainfall events and flooding, will increase run-off rates, leading to a reduction in groundwater recharge and, therefore, to a decline in basal river flow rates during the dry season. Finally, an increase in PET resulting from increasing temperatures will exacerbate water shortages, particularly in densely populated areas and where agricultural usage is high. The impacts of an increased frequency of droughts and water shortages on Nsumbu NP and its surroundings are summarised in Table 10.

Table 10. Expected impacts of an increased frequency of droughts and water shortages.Location Expected impacts

Nsumbu NP

Increased fire frequency and intensity. Changes in the distribution of water-dependent fauna (including

elephant, which is a priority speciesxxvi) and flora. Increased mortality and disease/parasite susceptibility43 of wildlife as

physiological stress rises.

Surrounding communities

Decreased crop production because of a shorter growing season and reduced soil moisture content.

An upsurge in crop losses from wilting. An escalation in human and livestock mortalities. Declines in river, lake and wetland water levels. An increase in intraspecific and human-wildlife conflict as competition

for water intensifies.

As agricultural production declines in a more water-scarce environment, the related decreases in food security and income generation will gradually force more locals to seek out alternative livelihoods. These include inter alia charcoal production and fishing, which will amplify the pressure on and degradation of these already declining natural resources and the ecosystems in which they are found. Furthermore, in combination with a shorter more intense wet season and sedimentation, droughts may result in drastic fluctuations of river and lake levels throughout the year. Fluctuating lake and river levels could lead to the drying up of critical wetland ecosystems supplied by these sources, such as the Tondwa floodplain, on which many humans and animals depend for the supply of essential goods and services.

6.2.2. A rise in potential evapotranspiration

A reduction in soil water content and groundwater recharge rates will result from an increase in PET related to warmer temperatures. This will be particularly evident as temperature increases are expected to be considerable, while MAR is only expected to increase moderately. As a result, drought intensity and frequency will be compounded. The likely consequences of the effects of an increase in PET are similar to those attributable to an increase in drought frequency and water shortages (Table 10).

xxvi For more information on the effects of climate change on elephants and other species (flora and fauna) refer to reference 15 (Foden and Smart 2016).

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9B Mohr Road, Tokai, Cape Town, 7945, South Africa • t +27 21 712 0282 • f +27 21 712 3478 • [email protected] • www.c4es.co.za

Figure 7. Summary of the main anticipated changes in climate and their impacts on biodiversity and humans in and around Nsumbu NP.

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6.2.3. Changing fire regimes

An increase in wet season rainfall would result in the enhanced growth and subsequently transfer of vegetative biomass into the dry season. Further additions to this vegetative biomass are expected in the form of woody vegetation, which is expected to increase in density with rising atmospheric CO2 (see section 6.3.1. Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels). The desiccation of this abundant fuel load during the dry season will be accelerated by: i) a rise in temperatures; ii) an increase in PET; iii) drier conditions related to more frequent and severe droughts; and iv) an extended dry season. The combination of increased wet season rainfall and longer, hotter dry seasons will, therefore, result in increased dry fuel load, which in turn will lead to more frequent and in some cases more intense fires. The occurrence of such fires may be increased by agriculturally-related bush clearing (slash and burn), where fires are used as a tool to clear land. An increase in the frequency and intensity of fires will result in: i) human and animal (domestic and wild) mortalities; ii) the loss of grazing and forage; iii) the destruction of crops; iv) damage to infrastructure; and v) the degradation of natural habitats.

In contrast to the above scenario, fires may be excluded from areas which have been transformed from savannah to woodland caused by bush encroachment, leading to further increases in woody vegetation (see Section 6.3.1. Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels).

6.2.4. Increases in lake surface temperatures

Lake Tanganyika’s surface waters are already warming because of increasing temperatures in the region. Warmer surface water temperatures cause a reduction in the cycling of nutrients from deeper, cooler water. Consequently, the nutrient content of surface waters is declining, which has a cascading effect on the aquatic food web and consequently biodiversity44,45. This impact includes the reduction of fish stocks, algal biomass and phytoplankton diversity, which decreases the productivity of the lake’s aquatic ecosystems42. These impacts are expected to be exacerbated by continued temperature increases expected under future climate change scenarios.

A decline in aquatic biodiversity, fish stocks in particular, will lead to a loss in productivity of related livelihoods (such as fishing). As a result, income generation and food security in communities that are dependent on such livelihoods (for example, Sumbu Village) will be reduced. This will force community members to adopt alternative livelihoods such as crop farming, brick making and charcoal production, as well as poaching to supplement their declining incomes and feed their families.

Apart from fishing, the tourism industry reliant on Lake Tanganyika’s aquatic biodiversity will also be negatively affected. The main effects will be a decrease in tourists visiting the area for sport fishing, snorkelling and scuba diving. Consequently, the income-generating capacity of the industry will be reduced, and tourism establishments may be forced to decrease staff numbers or even discontinue business, which will severely affect the local economy and further compound poverty.

6.2.5. Physiological stress in wild and domestic species

Increases in temperatures and the occurrence and intensity of droughts will result in heightened physiological stress levels in plants. During heat waves, plants open their stomata to allow for cooling by evapotranspiration. In a drought period, however, plants are unable to do this, leading to increased leaf temperatures. This can accelerate the development of leaves and

22

stems and thus limit the capacity of the plant to accumulate enough carbohydrate necessary for grain growth46. This decreases the productive capacity of plants (both crop and wild species)47. Furthermore, plants are more vulnerable to attacks by insects and plant pathogens, while their capacity to compete with invasives – which have proliferated because of increased wet season rainfall and may be more adapted to warmer temperatures – is also hindered41.

Similar to plants, animals (wild and domestic) are prone to increased levels of physiological stress under warmer conditions. The susceptibility of affected animals to various pests and diseases (which may be thriving under changing climatic conditions) is, therefore, higher43. The effects of an increase in physiological stress on both wild and domestic animals will be similar, with an increase in mortality and a decrease in reproductive rates expected for both. Additionally, there may be changes in the distribution of certain wild animals and even local extinctions attributable to the physiological stress related to climate change. As a result, the diversity of naturally occurring fauna in the area will be threatened.

6.3. Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels

Apart from its links to global warming, rising atmospheric CO2 levels are likely to lead to increases in the growth of woody vegetation. Woody plants and trees (C3) typically have the capacity to take advantage of atmospheric CO2 enrichment through increasing their rates of photosynthesis. Conversely, C4 plants (such as grasses, sedges and herbs) have a limited response to higher CO2 levels. Under increasing atmospheric CO2 conditions C3 plants can, therefore, out-compete C4 plants leading to a dominance of woody vegetation in regions previously covered by grasses, for example, i.e. a shift from grassland to savannah and savannah to forest16. There are, of course, numerous other environmental factors that would influence increases in woody vegetation16, but there is evidence of increasing tree densities in savannahs worldwide and of the transformation of some humid savannahs to forest48. Such changes are not directly attributable to land use change but are more aligned with experimental and simulation studies of CO2 effects.

An initial increase in woody biomass may facilitate an increase in the intensity and frequency of fires (see Section 6.2.3. above). However, in areas where woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) becomes dominant, the effects of fire are reduced or excluded, resulting in savannah and woodland shifting to forest. Under worst case GHG emissions scenarios (RCP 8.5), north-eastern Zambia (including parts of Nsumbu National Park) is likely to experience a biome shift to deciduous broad-leaved forest49. This will have substantial impacts on livelihoods, conservation and land use planning. Declines in suitability for cattle will have important livelihood implications, while grassland, savannah and miombo habitats may no longer be suitable for obligate grazers (including important hunting and resource species). This would impact both ecotourism and hunting as it would be far more difficult to spot game, and the region may no longer have the iconic landscapes that previously attracted tourists16.

7. Potential benefits and opportunities presented by climate change

Although many of the known and predicted impacts of climate change on Nsumbu NP are negative (see Section 6), it cannot be assumed that all of the impacts will be detrimental. Indeed, there have been several studies that have looked at the potential benefits. Climate change adaptation is a means of maximising such gains as well as minimising potential losses. However, any potential gains resulting from climate change are far outweighed by the potential losses. Consequently, while it is necessary to take advantage of any potential benefits, the ultimate focus of any CCS should be to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate

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change. The potential benefits and opportunities presented by climate change to Nsumbu NP and its surroundings are discussed briefly below.

7.1. Climate change-related investments

Under changing climatic conditions, the global community has realised the need for resources to be made available for inter alia adaptation, mitigation and development initiatives. One such initiative in Zambia is the ongoing LTDP, which is aligned with the country’s vision of becoming a middle-income nation by 2030 (Vision 2030)50. The LTDP is addressing the causes of poverty, which include the high vulnerability of communities to the negative impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the project is facilitating the conservation and preservation of both wildlife and other natural resources in the area. This aspect of the LTDP focuses on Nsumbu NP, which has the potential to contribute to local economic development in terms of inter alia tourism and employment, and the promotion of rural development and entrepreneurship. With a total budget of ~US$30 million, including an African Development Bank (AfDB) loan, a Global Environment Facility (GEF) co-financing grant and a contribution from the Government of Zambia (GoZ), the LTDP is an example of an investment related to climate change that is both directly and indirectly beneficial to Nsumbu NP and its surrounding communities.

A further example of a climate change-related investment into the area is the IUCN’s “Integrated Planning to Implement the CBD Strategic Plan and Increase Ecosystem Resilience to Climate Change” project, through which the development of the Nsumbu NP CCS is being funded. This project’s objective is to increase capacity of land use planning that supports biodiversity conservation and climate change adaptation.

As the impacts of climate change on Nsumbu NP become more apparent, additional investments into adaptation and mitigation in the area (such as the two mentioned above) will be made through various initiatives and organisations. Consequently, more funding will be available to inter alia strengthen the management capacity of Nsumbu NP and to reduce poverty levels in the surrounding communities.

7.2. New collaboration opportunities

The negative impacts of baseline challenges (such as poaching, development and the encroachment of human settlements) on Nsumbu NP, its surrounding GMAs and Lake Tanganyika have resulted in the implementation of initiatives by local and international NGOs. Currently, NGOs working in and around Nsumbu NP include CLT and the FZS. As the impacts of climate change further exacerbate the ongoing baseline challenges in the area, there will be increasing opportunities for collaboration between Nsumbu NP, CLT and FZS, as well as other NGOs, in the implementation of the appropriate adaptation and mitigation interventions.

Additionally, there is and will be an increasing need for climate change research in the area. This will include inter alia: i) carrying out climate change vulnerability assessments; ii) studying the effects of climate change on various landscapes, ecosystems and species; and iii) implementing monitoring and evaluation plans to assess the success and sustainability of climate change-related interventions. The need for such research opens up opportunities for collaboration between Nsumbu NP, NGOs and universities (see section 8.1.).

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7.3. Arrival of new species

Climate change is likely to affect the species composition of Nsumbu NP’s natural communities and ecosystems. Invasive plants and pests will be more likely to establish as a result of increased disturbance and less suitable conditions for local species. Changing rainfall patterns are also expected to increase the dispersal potential of invasive species during the wet season. While some of these new arrivals may be exotic species spreading from naturalised populations, others will be native species that will spread from their current distribution. For example, studies have suggested that many native bird species will leave the Mpulungu-Nsama region as conditions become unfavourable for them because of climate change16,51. However, many other species that were previously absent from the region could arrive to take advantage of climatic conditions that are more suitable for them now and in the future16,52.

8. Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions

The recommended adaptation and mitigation actions of the Nsumbu NP Climate Change Strategy are grouped under four main objectives.

1. Understand the impacts of climate change on Nsumbu NP.2. Increase the climate change-resilience of Nsumbu NP.3. Enhance the climate change-resilience of stakeholders and adjacent communities.4. Communicate the impacts of, and Nsumbu NP’s response to, climate change to relevant


8.1. Objective 1: Understand the impacts of climate change on Nsumbu NP

Knowledge of the potential impacts of climate change on Nsumbu NP is necessary to ensure the preparation and implementation of effective adaptation and mitigation actions. Given the uncertainties of the long-term impacts of climate change at a local scale and the current knowledge gaps, the task of strengthening understanding and awareness will be an ongoing process. An initial step conducted under the IUCN-ESARO’s “Integrated Planning to Implement the CBD Strategic Plan and Increase Ecosystem Resilience to Climate Change Project” was the production of a climate change vulnerability assessment report for the Mpulungu and Nsama districts of Zambia, with a focus on Nsumbu NP, to improve understanding of present and future climate change impacts16. Understanding how various natural and cultural elements of the park’s landscape may respond to changing conditions and designing long-term monitoring and research programmes that inform management actions is a priority. The recommended climate change adaptation and mitigation actions related to increasing the understanding of climate change impacts on Nsumbu NP are described in Table 11 below.

Table 11. Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions related to increasing the understanding of climate change impacts on Nsumbu NP.

Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions Timeframexxvii

1.1 Identify priorities for further research or integrated monitoring programmes to study the impacts of climate change and how they vary across different landscape types and ecosystems. This information will then be used to refine decisions about acceptable change in landscape structure, ecosystem structure and function, and speciesxxviii

composition. For this to be effective, theoretical “Thresholds of Potential Concern”xxix

must be identified and this Action must be designed and implemented alongside

Ongoing

xxvii These are only suggested timeframes. Coordination between Nsumbu NP, DNPW, the IUCN and other stakeholders is needed to confirm and adjust them accordingly based on the GMP and capacity.xxviii Fauna and flora separately.

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Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions TimeframeActions 1.2 and 1.3.

1.2 Identify a set of baseline parameters (climatic, ecological, geomorphological, hydrological and social) to effectively monitor the impacts of climate change. These parameters should include inputs from park staff, scientists and local communities – Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK)52.

By 2019

1.3 Design and implement a monitoring plan for the parameters identified in Action 1.2 that are not already targeted in existing plans. Methods used to monitor the effects of climate change must have the appropriate sensitivity to detect changes. Monitoring plans should have explicit measures for communicating outcomes between stakeholders such as park management, NGOs and local communities.

By 2020

1.4 Partner with research institutions (such as universities and NGOs) on projects that target identified knowledge gaps and improve understanding of the climate-resilience of ecosystems and local communities.

Ongoing

1.5 Strengthen and optimise access to existing baseline information through: i) improved and consistent collection of data (for example, the erection of weather stations throughout the park); ii) enhanced data sharing between organisations [such as DNPW, the Zambian Meteorological Department (ZMD), NGOs and academic institutions]; and iii) digitising and cataloguing of scientific information on an online information portal.

By 2021

1.6 Partner with CRB, NGOs and research institutions to undertake a risk assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on historically- and culturally-relevant sites and identify the mitigation measures that may be required.

By 2020

1.7 Work with NGOs and research institutions to develop spatial information systems that assist in the predictive modelling of climate change impacts on the distribution and abundance of vulnerable species and communities (such as Itigi-Sumbu thicket), as well as invasive species, under various climate change scenarios.

By 2023

1.8 Continue and update existing and implement new long-term monitoring plans for priority fauna (for example, African elephant), flora, communities (for example, Itigi-Sumbu thicket) and processes (such as fire regimes)xxx.

Ongoing

1.9 Continue to strengthen data management and the technical capacity of park staff (for example, field monitoring and data capture skills). Ongoing

8.2. Objective 2: Increase the climate change-resilience of Nsumbu NP

Given the size of the park and its associated GMAs, its location, variety of ecosystems (including terrestrial and aquatic) and biodiversity, Nsumbu NP may display more climate-resilience than other protected areas in northern Zambia. By managing towards the maintenance or enhancement of habitat heterogeneity, refugia will be available to allow changes in the distribution and abundance of vulnerable species and communities under future climate change scenarios. As a result, the climate-resilience of biodiversity is strengthened. To take advantage of this resilience and increase opportunities for changes in the distribution of species or populations, the park needs to continue to be managed within the broader landscape, which includes GMAs, neighbouring protected areas and community land. The recommended climate change adaptation and mitigation actions related to increasing the climate-resilience of Nsumbu NP are described in Table 12 below.

Table 12. Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions related to increasing the climate resilience of Nsumbu NP.

Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions Timeframe2.1 Design and implement strategic invasive species (fauna and flora) monitoring and control

programmes to maximise the resilience of local species and habitats in the park in accordance with the Nsumbu NP GMP.

Ongoing

2.2 Continue to develop and implement fire management strategies for the major landscape types of the park that maximise heterogeneity and are in accordance with the Nsumbu

Ongoing

xxix Similar to those described in: https://www.sanparks.org/docs/conservation/scientific/mission/TPC_Plant_and_Animal_Dynamics.pdf.xxx Particularly those which are already and those expected to become vulnerable to climate change in the future.

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https://www.sanparks.org/docs/conservation/scientific/mission/TPC_Plant_and_Animal_Dynamics.pdf

Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions TimeframeNP GMP.

2.3 Collaborate with DNPW, local government, research institutions and NGOs in relation to fire management research projects and incorporate the findings into fire management strategies.

Ongoing

2.4 Identify species and habitats where impacts from invasive species, weeds and fire are likely to be exacerbated by climate change and revise existing invasive species and fire management programmes accordingly.

By 2020

2.5 Collaborate with neighbouring protected areas (at both national and regional levels) to ensure coordination of data, fire and invasive species management. Ongoing

2.6 Identify, map and protect areas likely to be used as transitional or habitat refugia that will allow for shifts in the distribution and abundance of vulnerable species and communities under climate change conditions.

By 2021

2.7 Obtain expert engineering (e.g. from hydrological engineers) and environmental (e.g. from wetland ecologists) advice on measures needed to protect significant freshwater habitats (in rivers, lakes and swamps)xxxi from the effects climate change including inter alia: i) increasing temperatures; ii) flooding (including associated threats such as sedimentation); and iii) drought. Work with stakeholders and local communities to decide on the need for intervention and the choice of available options.

By 2023

2.8 If sections of the park are being negatively affected by the impacts of climate change, consultations should be carried out with all relevant stakeholders and local communities to jointly decide on further monitoring requirements, and whether protective, restoration or adaptation measures are available. If cost-effective, appropriate actions will be implemented.

If required

8.3. Objective 3: Enhance the climate change-resilience of stakeholders and adjacent communities

Many communities and various other stakeholders rely on the Nsumbu National Park system for the essential ecosystem services that it provides, as well as for their livelihoods. Climate change will not only impact these communities but also other stakeholders. Their climate-resilience will, therefore, need to be strengthened through the implementation of various adaptation and mitigation actions. The park will need to work with local communities and stakeholders to identify and support proactive measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change and to adapt where the associated changes are unavoidable. The increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will necessitate the development of risk control measures to protect life, infrastructure, livelihoods and the natural and cultural assets related to the park. The recommended climate change adaptation and mitigation actions related to strengthening the climate-resilience of communities and stakeholders are described in Table 13 below.

Table 13. Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions related to strengthening the climate resilience of communities and stakeholders.

Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions Timeframe3.1 Investigate opportunities to assist stakeholders involved in tourism businesses and

developments (which are dependent on Nsumbu NP) to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Targets would include inter alia: i) Nkamba Bay Lodge; ii) Ndole Bay Lodge; and iii) the planned Kasaba Bay Resort. Relevant interventions include but are not limited to the following. The development of a disaster risk mitigation strategy for extreme weather events

(such as floods, fires and heat waves) focusing on the protection of buildings, power and water supply, and access roads (aligned with Action 3.2).

The design of emergency response plans as part of the disaster risk reduction strategy and increasing capacity to prevent loss of human life. This should include the introduction of early warning systems (which will also have other benefits –see

Ongoing

xxxi For example, the fluctuation of the Mweru-Wantipa system’s lake and swamp levels may be contributing to declines in fish stocks. However, the causes of these fluctuations are yet to be determined. As a result, NBSAP-2 has indicated the need for hydrological studies to be carried out in the system.

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Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions TimeframeSection 7.6).

The development of a long-term adaptation strategy (partly informed by Action 3.2) to reduce the risk posed by the potential impacts of climate change on infrastructure and businesses in the future. Interventions may include inter alia water harvesting in the rainy season and designing buildings with an emphasis on natural cooling.

3.2 Conduct an infrastructure risk assessment to identify assets at risk from the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events. The assessment should recommend assets requiring upgrading, relocation or those unsuitable under future climate change conditions. Additionally, construction and building codes for Nsumbu NP assets should be reviewed to ensure that infrastructure will have the capacity to cope with floods and extreme heat.

By 2020

3.3 Based on the outcomes of Action 3.2, the development of an evacuation plan for communities, Nsumbu NP staff, tourism operators and guests located in areas that are vulnerable to flooding and fires. Determine the feasibility of building shelters which can be used during such events.

By 2021

3.4 Work with local government and NGOs to train Nsumbu NP staff, community and other stakeholder representatives to ensure the effective and efficient management of climate change-related incidents such as flooding and fires. Included in this action should be joint exercises to test emergency response plans and capacity to respond to climate change-related incidents.

Ongoing

3.5 Work with local communities (including CRBs), stakeholders (such as tourism businesses and NGOs) and initiatives (for example, LTDP) to promote the use of alternative energy (such as solar power), and efficient charcoal kilns and cooking stoves. This will reduce the reliance on and use of diesel and charcoal, for example, for power and cooking. Furthermore, in the case of charcoal, a reduction in use will mitigate damage to natural watersheds including woodland and forest.

Ongoing

3.6 Identify employment opportunities for local communities to participate in climate change monitoring and remedial activities. Such activities may include the collection of rainfall, temperature and water-level data, as well as the clearing of invasive species and bush encroachment (see Section 7).

Ongoing

3.7 Work alongside local communities, NGOs (CLT and FZS), initiatives (such as the LTDP) and stakeholders to strengthen the climate-resilience of local livelihoods, including and identifying alternative livelihoods. This may include inter alia the implementation of interventions related to Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), agroforestry, small livestock rearing and fish farming.

Ongoing

8.4. Objective 4: Communicate the impacts of, and Nsumbu NP’s response to, climate change

Climate change is a global problem affecting all aspects of society and natural landscapes. It is, therefore, vital that the pertinent knowledge is disseminated to relevant government departments, local communities and other stakeholders. This will ensure that the public and stakeholders are informed of potential climate change impacts and the actions that are being taken to adapt to and mitigate them. Furthermore, effective communication ensures that efforts between government departments, scientific researchers, NGOs and local communities are well coordinated and complimentary. The recommended climate change adaptation and mitigation actions related to the communication of the climate change strategy are described in Table 14 below.

Table 14. Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions related to the communication of the strategy to stakeholders.

Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions Timeframe4.1 Develop and implement a communication strategy to better inform Nsumbu NP staff,

local communities and stakeholders (including the tourism industry) of the implications of, and the adaptation and mitigation responses to, the impacts of climate change.

By 2020

4.2 Work with NGOs (such as CLT and FZS), who have the capacity necessary to disseminate information, to ensure that knowledge and awareness of climate change impacts are distributed and spread respectively to staff and stakeholders – particularly

Ongoing

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Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions Timeframelocal communities.

4.3 Support the maintenance of publicly available information (including the GMP, climate change policies, strategies and other documents relevant to the park) on appropriate online platforms.

Ongoing

9. Implementation

It is recommended that the Nsumbu NP CCS be implemented over the period of 2018–2023, as part of the park’s updated GMP which is still to be developed (see Section 11.7.). The strength of the GMP is that its implementation is within the framework of the Zambia Wildlife Act of 201553. Therefore, to ensure the implementation of the CCS, it is suggested that the strategy (or sections of it, such as Sections 8 and 9) is included in the updated GMP as an annex or used to inform its development. The strategy’s implementation needs to be nationally-driven and aligned with national strategies, policies, plans and priorities (see Section 11, Alignment). Implementation will be carried out by Nsumbu NP, with the DNPW being responsible for supervision and support. Further funding, support and guidance will be provided by the IUCN-ESARO, LTDP and NGOs (including CLT and FZS). Successful implementation of the CCS will require further consultation with, as well as the buy-in and participation of local communities. This will primarily involve CRBs, which are mandated to promote and develop an integrated approach to the management of human and natural resources in GMAs through an approved GMP. Under Section 33(2) of the Zambia Wildlife Act53, CRBs are empowered to inter alia develop and implement management plans which reconcile the various uses of land in areas falling under the board’s jurisdiction. CRBs will, therefore, represent communities in the implementation of the strategy. Further assistance will be provided by traditional leaders and Village Action Groups (VAG)13.

There are various barriers that could potentially prevent or slow the implementation of the strategy’s adaptation and mitigation actions (see Section 8). Potential barriers along with possible solutions are outlined in Table 15 below.

Table 15. Potential barriers to the successful implementation of the CCS and recommended solutions.Potential barriers Possible solutions

Limited financial resources to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation actions. As a result, external funding will be required to ensure implementation (for example, from IUCN-ESARO, LTDP and NGOs working in the area).

Securing external funding from sources such as IUCN-ESARO, LTDP and NGOs (for example FZS).

Lack of a clear and specific legal framework enforcing the implementation of the CCS on its own.

Integrating the strategy into and implementing it alongside the updated GMP (see above and Section 11).

Inadequate institutional and technical capacity of DNPW and Nsumbu NP to effectively implement the strategy’s recommended actions over the suggested period.

Strengthening the institutional and technical capacity of DNPW and Nsumbu NP through funding (see above) and training. Furthermore, the technical capacity and expertise of NGOs such as CLT and FZS can aid the effective implementation of the strategy.

Insufficient human resource capacity to effectively implement, as well as monitor, the progress and impacts of the CCS.

Similar to the above, adequate funding and training will facilitate the employment of more staff members and will add to the skillsets of those already present. Additionally, NGOs such as CLT and FZS may have the capacity to assist with implementation and monitoring.

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Potential barriers Possible solutions Limited staff and public awareness of climate

change threats, as well as their negative impacts on landscapes, ecosystems, livelihoods and the local economy. This may hinder the participation of staff and the public resulting in sub-standard implementation.

This potential barrier will be addressed through the adequate communication of the strategy, which will include the raising of awareness about the impacts of climate change (see Section 12).

10. Monitoring plan

While some of the impacts of climate change are certain, others are not, and there are still gaps in the understanding of how landscapes, ecosystems and species will respond, as well as which adaptation and mitigation actions will be the most effective. The best approach to climate change adaptation and mitigation is, therefore, to employ an adaptive management and “learn by doing” approach. This involves monitoring and then adjusting management plans and actions based on the results. However, even with the most pro-active, climate-informed outcomes and objectives, changing conditions and ecological interactions may lead to unexpected results. This further emphasises why the design and implementation of a monitoring plan are essential to the success and sustainability of a climate change strategy.

The monitoring plan (Table 16) for the Nsumbu NP CCS uses the systematic collection of data on specified indicators to provide park management and stakeholders with indications of the extent of progress of actions and the achievement of objectives54. Once implemented, data collected during monitoring should then be evaluated to determine the relevance and fulfilment of the strategy’s objectives, efficiency, effectiveness, impact and sustainability. The evaluation will provide the information that will enable the incorporation of lessons learned into the strategy’s adaptive management and “learn by doing” approach.

It is recommended that reporting accompany the implementation of the monitoring plan and that the strategy as a whole is reviewed every five years to ensure its sustainability, effectiveness and relevance under future climate change, environmental and socio-economic conditions.

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Table 16. Monitoring plan for the Nsumbu NP CCS.Strategy objective Recommended action Indicators Monitoring requirements Performance ratingxxxii

1. Understand the impacts of climate change on Nsumbu NP.

1.1 Identify priorities for further research or integrated monitoring programmes to study the impacts of climate change.

Vulnerability assessments conducted for main natural resources and biodiversity across landscapes and ecosystems.

Number and status of vulnerability assessments in progress/completed monitored bi-annually.

12345

“Thresholds of potential concern” identified for landscapes and their characteristic features, ecosystems and species.

Bi-annual report on identification progress.

Document on Nsumbu NP’s “thresholds of potential concern” published.

12345

Monitoring and research programmes implemented focusing on the above.

Have/when will the programmes be implemented (monitored biannually)?

Monitoring reports submitted annually.

12345

1.2 Identify a set of baseline parameters to effectively monitor the impacts of climate change.

Baseline parameters identified. Identification progress (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

Data on baseline parameters collected, interpreted and published.

Progress of data collection, interpretation and publishing (monitored biannually until completed)?

12345

1.3 Continue and update existing and implement new long-term monitoring plans for priority species, communities and processes.

Monitoring plan for baseline parameters identified in 1.2 developed.

Progress of monitoring plan development (monitored biannually until completed)?

12345

Monitoring plan implemented. Has the plan been implemented

(monitored biannually until completed)?

12345

Outcomes of monitoring plan communicated to stakeholders.

If available, have the outcomes been shared with stakeholders (reported on once the plan has been implemented)?

12345

1.4 Partner with research institutions (such as universities and NGOs) on projects that target identified climate change knowledge gaps

Partnerships with research institutions on climate change projects formed.

How many partnerships have been formed and with which institutions? (Updated on an ad hoc basis)

12345

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Strategy objective Recommended action Indicators Monitoring requirements Performance rating

and improve understanding of climate-resilience.

Gaps in knowledge identified. Number and details of gaps identified (updated annually)?

12345

Data gathered, interpreted and published.

Was/when will data be gathered, interpreted and published? (Reported on biannually)

12345

1.5 Strengthen and optimise access to existing baseline information.

Weather stations erected. Have weather stations been

erected? If so, how many and where? (Reported on biannually)

12345

Data recorded and captured. Is the data being recorded and

captured consistently (monitored monthly)?

12345

Data shared internally and externally.

Is the data being shared internally and externally (monitored monthly)?

12345

Data made available on online information platforms.

Has the data been made available online and is it being kept up to date (monitored monthly)?

12345

1.6 Undertake a risk assessment of likely impacts of climate change on cultural and historic sites and identify necessary mitigation measures.

Risk assessment conducted.

Has a risk assessment been conducted/what is the progress of the risk assessment (monitored biannually until completed)?

12345

Mitigation measures identified.

Have mitigation measures been identified? If so, what are they (monitored biannually until completed)?

Implementation progress of mitigation measures (if and when necessary)?

12345

1.7 Develop spatial information systems that assist in the predictive modelling of climate change impacts on vulnerable

Climate change impacts on vulnerable species and communities, as well as invasive species, modelled.

Progress of modelling (monitored biannually until completed)?

12345

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species and communities, as well as invasive species. Results published.

Have/when will the results be published (monitored biannually until completed)?

12345

1.8 Continue and update existing and implement new long-term monitoring plans for priority species, communities and processesxxxiii.

Current monitoring plans updated.

Progress of updating process (monitored biannually until completed)?

12345

New monitoring plans developed.

Have/when will new plans be developed (monitored biannually until completed)?

12345

All plans implemented. Implementation progress (monitored biannually)?

12345

1.9 Continue to strengthen data management and the technical capacity of park staff.

Staff members have the adequate skills and knowledge to manage for climate change adaptation.

Have staff members received training? If so, how many have been trained and what training have they received (monitored monthly)?

12345

Adaptation and monitoring work performed by staff is increasing climate-resilience.

Are the staff performing their tasks effectively (monitored monthly)?

12345

Collection and management of monitoring data are consistent and standardised.

Is data being collected and captured consistently? Is there a protocol for in place for this (monitored monthly)?

12345

4. Increase the climate-resilience of Nsumbu NP.

2.1 Design and implement strategic invasive species monitoring and control programmes.

Invasive species monitoring programme developed and implemented.

Progress of development and implementation (monitored monthly until implemented)?

12345

Invasive species control programme designed and implemented.

Progress of design and implementation (monitored monthly until implemented)?

12345

xxxiii Particularly those which are already and those expected to become vulnerable to climate change in the future.

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Strategy objective Recommended action Indicators Monitoring requirements Performance rating Data on all invasive species

present in the park continually updated and reported on, including the effectiveness of the control programme.

Is data being captured and published (monitored biannually)?

Is the control programme having the desired effects (monitored biannually)?

12345

2.2 Continue to develop and implement fire management strategies for the major landscape types.

Fire management strategies updated/developed for different landscape types.

Progress of strategy updating/development (monitored monthly until implemented)?

12345

Heterogeneity of landscapes maximised based on baseline parameters identified in Action 1.2 (i.e. parameters related to heterogeneity maintained or increased).

Are the strategies maintaining or increasing heterogeneity (monitored biannually)?

12345

2.3 Collaborate with stakeholders and research institutions in relation to fire management research projects and incorporate findings into fire management strategies.

Fire management research projects in Nsumbu NP designed and implemented by the park in collaboration with research institutions.

Progress of design and implementation (monitored biannually)?

Is collaboration taking place (monitored annually)?

12345

Findings published. Progress of reporting (monitored on an ad hoc basis)?

12345

Findings incorporated into fire management strategies.

Once reported, have the findings been used to update fire management strategies (monitored on an ad hoc basis)?

12345

2.4 Identify species and habitats where impacts of invasive species, weeds and fire are likely to be exacerbated by climate change.

Vulnerable species and habitats identified.

Progress of identification (monitored monthly until complete)?

12345

Mitigation of impacts on identified species under climate change conditions added to and prioritised in invasive species and fire management programmes.

Have mitigation measures been added to fire management programmes (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

2.5 Collaborate with neighbouring protected areas to ensure coordination of data, fire and invasive species management.

Climate change and baseline data shared with and compared to that of neighbouring protected areas.

Is data being shared and compared (monitored on an annual basis)?

12345

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Strategy objective Recommended action Indicators Monitoring requirements Performance rating Fire and invasive species

management programmes developed with reference to and in collaboration with those of neighbouring protected areas.

Progress of development (monitored annually)?

12345

Fire and invasive species management programmes implemented in parallel with those of neighbouring protected areas.

Progress of implementation and alignment with programmes of neighbouring protected areas (monitored annually)?

12345

2.6 Identify, map and protect areas likely to be used as transitional or habitat refugia under climate change conditions.

Areas that are likely to be used at transitional or habitat refugia identified.

Identification progress (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

Locations and extents of identified areas mapped.

Progress of mapping (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

Identified areas protected. Are the identified areas being

protected (monitored biannually on an ongoing basis)?

12345

2.7 Identify measures needed to protect significant freshwater habitats from the impacts of climate change.

Fire and invasive species management programmes developed with reference to and in collaboration with those of neighbouring protected areas.

Progress of development (monitored annually)?

12345

Fire and invasive species management programmes implemented in parallel with those of neighbouring protected areas.

Progress of implementation and alignment with neighbouring programmes (monitored annually)?

12345

Appropriate measures decided on and implemented.

Progress of selection and implementation (monitored on an ad hoc basis)?

12345

2.8 jointly decide with stakeholders on further monitoring requirements and actions.

Negative impacts identified, and extent reported.

Progress of identification and reporting (monitored on an ad hoc basis)?

12345

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Stakeholders notified, and consultations carried out.

Have stakeholders been notified and consultations taken place (monitored and reported on on an ad hoc basis)?

12345

Adaptation and mitigation options are identified for affected sections.

Identification progress (monitored on an ad hoc basis)?

12345

Monitoring plan designed and implemented to measure effectiveness of selected options.

Design and implementation progress (monitored on an ad hoc basis)?

12345

3. Enhance the climate change-resilience of stakeholders and adjacent communities.

3.1 Investigate opportunities to assist stakeholders involved in tourism businesses and developments, which are dependent on Nsumbu NP, to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Disaster risk mitigation strategy for the effects of extreme weather events on infrastructure necessary for tourism developed.

Progress of strategy development (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

Emergency response plans designed and incorporated into the disaster risk mitigation strategy.

Design progress (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

Early warning systems introduced.

Have early warning systems been introduced (monitored monthly until completed)?

Details regarding the early warning systems reported on (once introduced).

12345

Long-term climate change adaptation strategy for the tourism sector of the park developed.

Progress of strategy development (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

3.2 Conduct an infrastructure risk assessment to identify assets at risk from impacts of climate change and extreme weather events.

At risk infrastructure identified. Identification progress (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

Identified infrastructure tagged for upgrading, relocation or as being non-viable under climate change conditions.

Tagging progress (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

36


Park construction and building codes reviewed and updated.

Progress of reviews and updates (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

3.3 The development of an evacuation plan for communities, Nsumbu NP staff and tourism operators located in areas that are vulnerable to flooding and fires.

Evacuation plan developed for people located in vulnerable areas.

Progress of plan development (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

Feasibility of building shelters determined.

Progress of feasibility study (updated monthly until completed)?

12345

3.4 Ensure the effective and efficient management of climate change-related incidents such as extreme weather events and fires.

Staff, community representatives and stakeholders trained to manage climate change-related incidents.

Has training taken place? If so how many individuals from each group have been trained and what did the training include (monitored on a biannual basis)?

12345

Emergency response plans and equipment tested and in place?

Is preparation complete (monitored on a monthly basis until completed)?

12345

3.5 Work with stakeholders and initiatives to promote charcoal efficient kilns and cooking stoves and alternative energy to reduce the reliance on diesel and charcoal.

Decrease in the number of households using charcoal in the villages surrounding the park.

How many households were using charcoal? How many still are (monitored biannually)?

12345

Charcoal production is sustainable, only using wood from areas where encroaching woody vegetation has been cleared.

Is ongoing charcoal production sustainable (updated annually)?

12345

Increase in the number of households using charcoal efficient kilns and cooking stoves or supplied by alternative energy sources (such as solar power).

Number of households (updated annually)?

12345

3.6 Identify employment opportunities for local communities to participate in climate change monitoring and remedial activities.

Employment opportunities identified.

What are the employment opportunities that have been identified (monitored biannually)?

12345

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Number of community members employed.

How many community members are employed (monitored biannually)?

12345

3.7 Work alongside local communities, NGOs (CLT and FZS), initiatives (such as the LTDP) and stakeholders to strengthen the climate-resilience of local livelihoods, including and identifying alternative livelihoods.

Climate-resilience of local livelihoods strengthened.

What has been implemented to strengthen the climate-resilience of local livelihoods?

What are the results (monitored annually)?

12345

Alternative climate-resilient livelihoods identified.

What alternative livelihoods have been identified and are they being practiced (monitored annually)?

12345

4. Communicate the impacts of, and Nsumbu NP’s response to, climate change.

4.1 Develop a climate change communication strategy.

Climate change communication strategy developed.

Progress of development (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

4.2 Work with NGOs to disseminate and spread climate change knowledge and awareness to stakeholders (particularly local communities).

Climate change communication strategy implemented.

Progress of implementation (implementation monitored on a monthly basis after development has been completed)?

12345

Number of communities, community members and other stakeholders engaged with.

How many communities, stakeholders and individuals have been reached (monitored biannually during implementation)?

12345

Community members and other stakeholders understand the importance and impacts of climate change.

Was the information communicated clearly (monitored during community and stakeholder engagements)?

12345

Community members and stakeholders understand the goal and objectives of the climate change strategy, what their role in it is and how they will benefit from it.

Were community members and stakeholders made fully aware of the purpose of the strategy and do they understand its implications (monitored during community and stakeholder engagements)?

12345

4.3 Support the maintenance of publicly available information (regarding climate change and the strategy) on appropriate online platforms.

Publicly accessible online platforms identified (including social media).

Number of platforms identified (monitored monthly until completed)?

12345

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Strategy objective Recommended action Indicators Monitoring requirements Performance rating Data and information on climate

change and its impacts is made available and continually updated (when new information is available) on the online platforms.

A log of all information shared and updated must be kept up-to-date (monitored monthly).

12345

Details of the climate change strategy and its implementation status made available on the online platforms.

Implementation status (monitored for updates bi-annually).

12345

Number of people accessing the information on the online platforms tracked.

Data needs to be recorded regularly (daily basis).

12345

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11. Alignment

The success of the Nsumbu NP CCS will be determined by its linkages with relevant global, national, as well as local biodiversity and climate change plans and strategies. Brief descriptions of the documents relevant to and to which the CCS is aligned are provided below.

11.1. Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Strategic Plan (2011–2020) and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets

In 2010, the Parties to the CBD adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity6 in Nagoya, Japan, with the purpose of generating global action in support of biodiversity between 2011 and 2020 by all countries and stakeholdersxxxiv. The plan is made up of a shared vision, a mission, five strategic goals and the 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Serving as a flexible framework for the establishment of national and regional targets, the Strategic Plan promotes the coherent and effective implementation of the CBD’s three objectives. The plan’s five strategic goals and Zambia’s national targets are outlined in the Second National Biodiversity and Action Plan (NBSAP-2, Table 16)xxxv. The vision and mission of the CBD Strategic Plan are presented below.

The plan’s vision: “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored, and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”.

The plan’s mission: “Take effective and urgent action to halt the loss of biodiversity in order to ensure that by 2020 ecosystems are resilient and continue to provide essential services, thereby securing the planet’s variety of life, and contributing to human well-being, and poverty eradication. To ensure this, pressures on biodiversity are reduced, ecosystems are restored, biological resources are sustainably used and benefits arising out of utilisation of genetic resources are shared in a fair and equitable manner; adequate financial resources are provided, capacities are enhanced, biodiversity issues and values mainstreamed, appropriate policies are effectively implemented, and decision-making is based on sound science and the precautionary approach”.

11.2. Zambia’s Second National Biodiversity and Action Plan (2015–2025)

Zambia’s vision for the conservation of its biodiversity is driven by Vision 2030xxxvi. This vision promotes economic development that considers social and environmental safeguards and is operationalised via the country’s five-year national development planning cycle (currently in its seventh phase)xxv. The overarching framework of NBSAP-27 is provided by the five strategic goals of the current CBD Strategic Plan (see 11.1. above) and its Aichi Biodiversity Targets. In NBSAP-2 the 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets were reduced to 18 national targets (Table 17) accompanied by: i) 45 strategic interventions; ii) key performance indicators; iii) key activities; iv) responsible entities; v) narratives; and vi) assumptions. Additionally, NBSAP-2 is underpinned by the following 11 principles: i) sustainable use; ii) responsibility; iii) equity; iv) participation; v) awareness-raising; vi) co-existence; vii) knowledge; viii) informed decision-making; ix) strategic partnerships; x) enhanced conservation; and xi) financial sustainability.

xxxiv In recognition of the urgent need for action the United Nations General Assembly declared 2011–2020 as the United Nations Decade on Biodiversity.xxxv The 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets are available at: https://www.cbd.int/doc/strategic-plan/2011-2020/Aichi-Targets-EN.pdf. xxxvi Available at: http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/cpsi/unpan040333.pdf.

40

http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/cpsi/unpan040333.pdf

https://www.cbd.int/doc/strategic-plan/2011-2020/Aichi-Targets-EN.pdf

https://www.cbd.int/doc/strategic-plan/2011-2020/Aichi-Targets-EN.pdf

NBSAP-2 has been developed as a transformative strategy emphasising: i) evidence-based interventions; ii) fully participatory processes; iii) the importance of protected areas; iv) the incorporation of climate change resilience; v) restoration activities; vi) the need for diverse financing mechanisms; and vii) strong supporting framework (based on national laws, policies and regulations).

Table 17. Five Strategic Goals and 18 National Targets of NBSAP-2, which were adapted from the CBD Strategic Goals and Aichi Biodiversity Targets7.

Strategic Goal A: address the underlying causes of biodiversity loss by mainstreaming biodiversity across government and society.

1. By 2020, Zambians, especially local communities, are aware of the values of biodiversity and the steps they can take to conserve and use it sustainably.

2. By 2020, biodiversity values have been integrated into the Seventh National Development Plan (SeNDP), provincial and district development plans and planning processes, as well as reporting systems are being incorporated into national accounting, as appropriate.

3. By 2019, selected incentives for biodiversity conservation and sustainable use are in place and applied, and the most harmful subsidies are identified, and their gradual phase-out is initiated.

4. By 2020, baselines for sustainable production and utilization of fisheries, forests and wildlife are established and updated.

Strategic Goal B: reduce the direct pressures on biodiversity and promote sustainable use.5. By 2020, the deforestation rate in Zambia is reduced by at least 25%.6. By 2020, fisheries co-management regimes are established in 60% of all major fisheries.7. By 2025, areas under agriculture, aquaculture and forestry (forest reserves, parks, GMAs, forest concessions,

open areas) are managed sustainably, ensuring conservation of biodiversity.8. By 2020, pollution, including excess nutrients from industry (for example, mining and agriculture), has been

brought to levels that are not detrimental to ecosystem function and biodiversity.9. By 2020, invasive alien species (Mimosa pigra, Hyacinth, crayfish, and Lantana camara) and their spreading

pathways are identified and prioritised, controlled or eradicated, and measures are in place to manage pathways to prevent their spread and establishment.

Strategic Goal C: improve the status of biodiversity by safeguarding ecosystems, species and genetic diversity.10.By 2020, Zambia’s Protected Area (PA) network is rationalised to achieve representativeness and ecological

connectivity at landscape level.11.By 2022, the populations of threatened and endemic species and their protection status have been improved

and sustained.12.By 2025, the genetic diversity of cultivated plants and farmed and domesticated animals and of wild relatives,

including other socio-economically as well as culturally valuable species, is maintained, and strategies have been developed and implemented for minimizing genetic erosion and safeguarding their genetic diversity.

Strategic Goal D: enhance the benefits to all from biodiversity and ecosystem services.13.By 2020, Zambia defines and enforces a generic national benefit-sharing mechanism to genetic resources.14.By 2016, Zambia accedes to the Nagoya Protocol and by 2018 domestication of the Nagoya Protocol is

commenced.15.By 2025, Zambia takes deliberate actions to protect critical ecosystems of the Zambezi, Kafue, Chambeshi,

Bangweulu and Luangwa watersheds.Strategic Goal E: enhance implementation of NBSAP2 through participatory planning, knowledge management and capacity building.

16.By 2020, the traditional knowledge, innovations and practices of local communities relevant for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity are respected, fully integrated and reflected in the implementation of the CBD with the full and effective participation of local communities, at all relevant levels.

17.By 2020, knowledge, the science base and technologies relating to biodiversity, its functioning, status and trends, and the consequences of its loss, are improved, widely shared and transferred, and applied.

18.By 2025 Zambia mobilizes adequate internal and external financial resources compared to the period 1999 to 2014 for effective implementation of NBSAP-2.

11.3. Zambia’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA, 2007)

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The main goal of Zambia’s NAPA is to broadly communicate to the international community priority interventions that address the country’s immediate needs for adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change31.

The objectives of the NAPA are as follows: serve as a roadmap for Zambia to develop climate change adaptation strategies; contribute to the national objectives of poverty reduction through sustained economic

growth, employment creation and enhancement of food security as stated in the National Development Plan (NDP)xxxvii and other policy documents;

raise public awareness of the urgency to adapt to the adverse effects of extreme weather events; and

build capacity to address climate change vulnerabilities and climate variability.

In terms of climate change adaptation needs, the NAPA promotes actions that: i) reduce the adverse impacts of climate change; ii) allow for the exploitation of opportunities created by climate change; and iii) strengthen the capacity to cope with the unavoidable consequences of climate change. Themes relative to the CCS under which the NAPA prioritises climate change adaptation initiatives include: strengthening of early warning systems to improve climate change-related adaptation,

planning and preparation in all sectors; promoting alternative livelihood options; managing critical habitats; promoting the natural regeneration of indigenous forests; adapting land use practices to climate change conditions; maintaining and providing water infrastructure to communities to reduce human-wildlife

conflict; eradicating invasive alien species; and building capacity for improving environmental health in rural areas.

11.4. Zambia’s Second National Communication (SNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

The SNC to the UNFCCC focuses on Zambia’s GHG inventories from 1994 to 2000 55. It was developed through a broad-based consultative process and proposes measures that need to be implemented for the country to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change in a sustainable way. These measures include the establishment of a long-term institutional framework that will ensure a coordinated response to climate change and a robust and permanent GHG inventory system. The proposed adaptation and mitigation measures serve as an input into the development of concrete, detailed and bankable initiative proposals for funding by government, UNFCCC and other bi- and multilateral organisations. Adaptation measures prioritised for by the SNC for sectors relevant to the Nsumbu NP CCS are listed in Table 18.

Table 18. Adaptation measures prioritised for by the SNC for sectors relevant to the Nsumbu NP CCS.Sector Adaptation measures

Agriculture

i) Strengthening of early warning systems to improve climate change-related adaptation, planning and preparation.

ii) Improving grazing management practices such as optimising stocking rates.iii) Researching the impacts of climate change on fisheries in relation to droughts and

floods and promoting community participation in fisheries management.Wildlife i) Identifying and creating possible wildlife refugia and corridors.

xxxvii Available at: http://www.mndp.gov.zm/download/7NDP.pdf.

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http://www.mndp.gov.zm/download/7NDP.pdf

Sector Adaptation measuresii) Developing response plans for water supply and flood management.iii) Promoting alternative livelihood options to strengthen the climate resilience of

communities located around GMAs.iv) Maintaining and providing water infrastructure to reduce human-wildlife conflict.

Forestry

i) Promoting the natural regeneration of indigenous forests.ii) Implementing silviculture and cultural practices (for example, selective cutting,

thinning and observing fire management regimes).iii) Improvement of fire management systems.iv) Promotion of soil conservation methods.

Infrastructure

i) Developing design standards and codes for the construction of climate-resilient infrastructure (including roads, bridges, dams and buildings).

ii) Constructing climate-resilient infrastructure using the abovementioned design standards and codes.

11.5. Zambia’s National Policy on Climate Change (NPCC)

The NPCC was developed to support and facilitate a coordinated response to climate change problems in Zambia under the following vision: “A prosperous and climate-resilient economy by 2030”56.

The overall objective of the NPCC is to provide a framework for coordinating climate change programmes to ensure climate-resilient and low carbon development pathways for sustainable development towards the attainment of Zambia’s Vision 2030xxviii. Specific objectives as well as the guiding principles of the policy are provided in Table 19 below.

Table 19. Specific objectives and the guiding principles of the NPCC56.Specific objectives Guiding principles

1. Promote and strengthen the implementation of adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures to reduce vulnerability to climate variability and change.

a. Sustainable climate change response.

2. Promote and implement sustainable land-use management practices to contribute to reducing GHG emissions from land use and land use change and forestry.

b. Compliant with international obligations.

3. Promote mainstreaming of climate change into policies, plans and strategies at all levels in to account for climate change risks and opportunities in decision making and implementation.

c. Resilience building as part of the development process.

4. Strengthen the institutional and human resource capacity to effectively and efficiently address all aspects of climate change at international, national, provincial, district and local levels.

d. Collectiveness and inclusiveness.

5. Promote communication and dissemination of climate change information to enhance awareness and understanding of its impacts.

e. Consultative approach.

6. Promote investments in climate resilient and low carbon development pathways to generate co-benefits and provide incentives for addressing climate change more effectively.

f. Ecosystem integrity.

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Specific objectives Guiding principles7. Foster research and development to improve

understanding and decision making in responding to climate change.

g. Complementarity of adaptation, disaster risk reduction and mitigation.

8. Engender Climate Change programmes and activities enhance gender equality and equity in the implementation of climate change programmes.

9. Develop and promote appropriate technologies and build national capacity to benefit from climate change technological transfer.

11.6. Zambia’s National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS)

The NCCRS was developed to support and facilitate a coordinated response to the impacts of climate change in Zambia. Consequently, it enhances the capacity of the country to respond to the adverse impacts of climate change and contributes to the achievement of the overall objective of the UNFCCC, which it ratified in 199357.

The vision and mission of the NCCRS are “a prosperous climate change-resilient economy” and “to ensure that the most vulnerable sectors of the economy are climate-proofed, and sustainable development achieved through the promotion of low-carbon development pathways”, respectively. By targeting the most sensitive economic sectors for climate proofing, the NCCRS ensures that climate risks are addressed in national development plans to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and safeguard successful development.

In the long-term, the goal of the NCCRS is to ensure that climate change is mainstreamed in all sectors by 2030. Under this goal, the NCCRS’ objectives are related to priority sectoral adaptation and mitigation actions needed to achieve its vision. The objectives of the NCCRS that are of relevance to the Nsumbu NP CCS are listed below.

1. Land use (agriculture and forestry): to develop sustainable land use systems to enhance agricultural production and ensure food security under a changing climate.

2. Water: to ensure sustainable management and resilience of water resources under a changing climate.

3. Health and social infrastructure: to protect people and health from climate change and variability.

4. Physical infrastructure: to climate-proof infrastructure.5. Governance: to develop an appropriate climate change governance (policy, legal and

institutional) framework.6. Mainstreaming: to mainstream climate change into all main sectors of the economy.

The NCCRS has established five core pillars for implementation that will ensure accomplishment of the vision, mission and objectives. Pillars that are of relevance to the strategy are detailed below.

1. Adaptation and disaster risk reduction. To ensure that the most climate-sensitive sectors are protected from the impacts of climate change through the implementation of climate-resilient adaptation interventions and ensuring that disaster risk reduction is mainstreamed into all sectors of the economy.

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2. Cross-cutting problems. This includes addressing: i) capacity building; ii) research and development; iii) technology development and transfer; iv) climate change communication; v) education and awareness; vi) gender; and vii) HIV Aids.

3. Governance of climate change. This pillar underpins the formation of a dedicated climate change activities coordinating institution, the National Climate Change and Development Council (NCCDC).

11.7. Zambia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC, 2015)

The country’s INDC58 to the 2015 agreement on climate change is made up of adaptation and mitigation components based on national circumstances and are aligned with the decisions adopted at the 19th and 20th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC. Successful implementation of the INDC will lead to a total reduction in emissions of ~38,000 GgCO 2eq. Zambia’s mitigation and adaptation contributions towards the INDC which are related to the Nsumbu NP CCS are listed in Table 20.

Table 20. Mitigation programmes and adaptation measures contributing to Zambia’s INDC58.Mitigation

programme Adaptation measures

Sustainable forest management.

Guaranteed food security through diversification and promotion of CSA practices for crop, livestock and fisheries production including conservation of germplasm for domestic species and their wild relatives.

Sustainable agriculture.

Develop a national wildlife adaptation strategy and ensure its implementation through supportive policies, local community, civil society and private sector participation.

Renewable energy and energy efficiency.

Protection and conservation of water catchment areas and enhanced investment in water capture, storage and transfer (linked to agriculture, energy, ecological, industrial and domestic use purposes) in selected watersheds.

Institutionalise integrated land use planning compatible with sustainable management of natural resources and infrastructure development.

Enhance decentralised climate information services for early warning and long-term projections on the effects of climate change to support sustainable management of production systems, infrastructure development and public health.

Capacity building in CSA, Sustainable Forest Management (SFM), Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture (SFA), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET) and Early Warning Systems (EWS), climate change management and planning.

Mainstream climate change adaptation into country development plans and strategies.

11.8. Nsumbu National Park General Management Plan (GMP, 2004)

The current GMP9 (drafted in 2004) is outdated, with the term “climate change” missing from the plan altogether. However, the GMP will soon be replaced by a new version which will be developed by the Planning Department of the DNPW. Funding for the development of a new plan has been budgeted for by the LTDP, with further resources being offered by the FZS.

It is essential that Nsumbu NP’s new GMP and the CCS strategy are aligned to ensure that the park’s potential climate-resilience, along with that of its surrounding GMAs and local communities is fully realised. The strength of the Nsumbu NP GMP is that its implementation is enforced within the framework of the Zambia Wildlife Act of 201553. Consequently, it is recommended that the Nsumbu NP CCS be added as an annex to the new GMP or be used to inform its development14. This will ensure the alignment of the two documents in terms of both content and implementation.

The current GMP provides a Strategic Management Investment Plan and Budget (SIMAPB) for the management, use and development of Nsumbu NP. Within this, is the management and

45

development philosophy of the park. Furthermore, the plan offers an important framework for addressing management problems related to: i) natural resource protection and management; ii) tourism development; iii) cultural resources management; and iv) the sustainable use of wildlife resources. It reflects the DPNW and partners’ vision and dedication to conserve Zambia’s biodiversity and natural heritage, whilst providing investment opportunities through sustainable and responsible tourism development.

Management objectives in the current GMP that are of relevance to the CCS include inter alia: monitoring and enforcing park boundaries, as well as creating awareness amongst

surrounding communities; reducing poaching levels by 40 and 30% within the park and its buffer zones (GMAs),

respectively, through community sensitisation and law enforcementxxxviii; enforcing the correct disposal of all liquid and solid waste; ensuring the restoration of depleted and degraded habitats; securing the establishment of both short- and long-term research and monitoring

programmes; developing a fire management plan; ensuring the effective control of invasive alien species; and making use of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) and land use planning to guide all

development initiatives within the park.

11.9. Lower level planning

The alignment of the Nsumbu NP CCS with lower level conservation planning processes and structures is essential for its efficient implementation, success and sustainability. Conservation planning below the level of the GMP is conducted by CRBs under the guidance of the DNPW. The CRBs, which are under the patronage of Senior Chief Nsama, represent local communities along geographic boundaries contiguous to a chiefdom in a GMA. These boards are mandated to promote and develop an integrated approach to the management of human and natural resources in a GMA through an approved GMP.

CRBs are empowered to: negotiate, in conjunction with the DNPW, co-management agreements with hunting

outfitters and photographic tour operators; manage the wildlife under its jurisdiction, within quotas specified by the DNPW; appoint community scouts to exercise and perform the duties of a wildlife police officer

under the supervision of the DNPW; in consultation with the DNPW, develop and implement management plans which reconcile

the various uses of land in areas falling under the board’s jurisdiction; and perform such other functions as the DNPW or the its Director may direct or delegate to it.

CRBs are thus the representative institutional body of local communities set up to assist the DNPW to protect and manage wildlife. Furthermore, local communities are able to access wildlife and other natural resources in the GMAs through the boards. It is through the CRBs that development organisations and the private sector can access concessions in these areas. In return, the CRBs act as a forum for communities to participate in their development planning. Traditional leaders and VAGs also assist CRBs with regards to planning processes13.

xxxviii This includes inter alia community scouts (local residents) who have been trained under the Nsama CRB. Such involvement of local communities is critical, as these people are the true custodians of their natural surroundings.

46

11.10. Alignment with NGOs and development initiatives

The success and sustainability of the Nsumbu NP CCS’s implementation will further be determined by its alignment and coordination with the work being conducted by local NGOs and development initiatives. Respective examples include CLT and the LTDP.

Formed in 2012, CLT strives to promote and conserve the biodiversity of Lake Tanganyika and its surroundings for the sustainable benefits of local communities and the government of Zambia. It has since started working alongside the FZS on the Nsumbu Tanganyika Development Project59.

The LTDP although not an NGO like CLT, this GEF and AFDB funded project is being implemented in the region to: i) promote the sustainable and equitable management and use of Lake Tanganyika’s natural resources; ii) improve local livelihoods through investing in economic infrastructure; iii) develop the capacity of human resources; and iv) develop market linkages and value chains for natural resource products. In 2017 the project secured additional funding to pursue a management planning process for Nsumbu NP. Areas focused on by CLT, FZS and the LTDP that are of specific relevance to the strategy are described briefly in Table 21.

Table 21. Focus areas of CLT and the LTDP which are of relevance to the Nsumbu NP CCS.NGO/Initiative Areas of relevance

CLT and FZS

Protecting elephants, one of the park’s flagship species. Supporting protected area management at the landscape-level (including

Nsumbu NP and Tondwa GMA). Assisting with and supporting law enforcement activities (both terrestrial and

aquatic). Assisting with local land use planning. Implementing awareness raising initiatives in local communities. Facilitating the democratic election of CRBs and strengthening these community

institutions. Creating Community Fisheries Committee to engage with government on fishing

methods, licencing and management initiatives. Training and ongoing support to farmers in conservation farming methods. Creating village and GMA-level land use plans. Developing conservation compatible alternative livelihood options. Promoting population, health and the environment linkages. Constructing critical park infrastructure. Repairing and maintaining staff accommodation in a climate-resilient manner. Supplying and maintaining motorized equipment. Employing a minimum of 10 Community Scouts and providing uniforms and field

equipment to all scouts in the field. Running an operations control room and providing equipment for patrol planning. Ongoing ranger training and mentoring. Funding the newly established Investigations and Intelligence Unit. Surveying Nsumbu NP’s lion population.

LTDP Revising the park’s boundaries. Ensuring that the park’s boundaries are clearly demarcated. This includes the: i)

installation of buoys in Lake Tanganyika at 1.6 km from the shoreline; and ii) the erection of beacons along the park’s terrestrial boundariesxxxix.

Funding and facilitating the development of a new GMP for Nsumbu NP focusing on biodiversity, including a strategic law enforcement plan and a participatory

xxxix The installation of buoys and erection of beacons will be carried out with the participation of local communities, which will promote community buy-in and responsibility.

47

NGO/Initiative Areas of relevanceland use plan for Tondwa GMA.

Supplying equipment and other resources to increase the DNPW’s operational capacities within the park.

Training Nsumbu NP staff to improve management capacity and skillsets.

12. Communication of the Climate Change Strategy

Climate change is a global problem affecting all aspects of society and natural landscapes. It is, therefore, vital that the pertinent knowledge is generated and disseminated to relevant government departments, park staff, local communities and other stakeholders. This will ensure that stakeholders are informed of climate change impacts expected to affect the park, its surroundings and their livelihoods, as well as the actions that are being taken to adapt to and mitigate these. Furthermore, it is necessary to raise awareness of the role of local communities in the successful implementation of the CCS and the benefits thereof. This will encourage the buy-in of local communities and will ultimately result in the strengthening their and Nsumbu NP’s climate-resilience. Effective communication ensures that efforts between Nsumbu NP, government departments (for example, DNPW), scientific researchers, NGOs and local communities are well coordinated and will streamline the implementation of the strategy.

Under Objective 4 of Section 8 (Recommended adaptation and mitigation actions), it is recommended that a communications strategy be developed to better inform stakeholders of the implications of, and the adaptation and mitigation responses to, the impacts of climate change. Communicating the strategy to local communities will be challenging, as literacy rates are low and climate change awareness is limited. The effective dissemination of information would require the direct engagement of local communities, including CRBs and traditional authorities. It is, therefore, advised that communication of the strategy is implemented in conjunction with pre-existing knowledge and dissemination initiatives being conducted by local government and NGOs. CLT and FZS have the capacity and experience necessary to facilitate this and are willing to work together with Nsumbu NP and DNPW to ensure its success14.

In terms of stakeholders other than local communities, including the tourism sector, government and the Zambian public in general, communication of the strategy should be conducted via appropriate online platforms (such as the DNPW website). The maintenance of these platforms and the relevant climate change information available on them is essential for this form of communication to be effective (see recommended action under Objective 4 of Section 8). Communications materials such as posters, brochures and documentaries will also be used to disseminate information regarding the climate change strategy to the general public.

13. References

48

Appendix I

Figure A1. Maps of Nsumbu National Park’s geography, landcover, planning and relief. Source: IUCN-ESARO.

49

Figure A2. Maps of Mpulungu and Nsama Districts’ geography, relief, landcover and settlements. Source: IUCN-ESARO.

50

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