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Llad Phillips 1
Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime
Llad Phillips 2
How best to Learn in a Lecture classThat does notHave a Section?
We RecommendGoing to class.The questionsOn the examsAre from topicsDiscussed inClass.
How much math does 160 require?
1.Descriptive Graphs2. AnalyticalGraphs (exams)3. Notation e.gOF=f(CR,SE,SV)
Llad Phillips 3
OutlineOutline Seriousness SurveySeriousness Survey
What can we learn from the survey?What can we learn from the survey? Crime FileCrime File
VictimsVictims Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime
Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime Why do some people get involved with crime?Why do some people get involved with crime?
Llad Phillips 4
Class Survey 2006Class Survey 2006
Scoring Ten BehaviorsScoring Ten Behaviors 61 responses61 responses
Llad Phillips 5
SERIOUSNESS SURVEY
RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS):
MEDIAN ‘06 ‘051. HOMICIDE _10 10__2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _ 10 8__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _ 9 9__4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _ 7 7__5. SELLING HEROIN _ 7 6__6. AUTO THEFT _ 6 6__7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _ 5 4__8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _ 3 3__9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 1 2__10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 2 1__
Llad Phillips 6
Homicide, W 06, 61 Respondents
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 07
53
0102030405060
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Seriousness
Fre
qu
ency
Mode = 10, largest number of responsesMedian = 10, score of 31st person
Llad Phillips 7
Homicide, W 05, 98 Respondents
1 2 0 1 0 0 1 3
16
74
0
20
40
60
80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Seriousness
Fre
qu
ency
Mode = 10, largest number of responsesMedian = 10, score of 49th person
Llad Phillips 8
Number of Responses Versus Score for Homicide 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Score
Res
po
nse
s
1 1 3
14
73
Llad Phillips 9
Rape, W 06, 61 Respondents
0 0 0 0 0 02
14 15
30
0
5
10
1520
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Seriousness
Fre
qu
en
cy
Mode = 10Median = 9
Llad Phillips 10
Rape, W 05, 98 Respondents
0 0 1 0 1 4 7
19
39
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Seriousness
Fre
qu
en
cy
Mode = 9Median = 9
Llad Phillips 11
Possession of Marijuana, W 06, 61 Respondents
33
96
25
2 2 1 0 10
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Seriousness
Fre
qu
en
cy
Mode = 1Median = 1
Llad Phillips 12
Possession of Marijuana, W 05
47
17
117 6 4 3
1 1 105
101520253035404550
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Seriousness
Fre
qu
en
cy
Mode = 1Median = 2
Llad Phillips 13
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
23
31
27
10
7
4 4 5
2
0 00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Fre
qu
enc
y
Score
Number of Responses Vs. Possession of Pot Score ‘02
Llad Phillips 14
SERIOUSNESS SURVEY
RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS):
Minimum, Maximum1. HOMICIDE _5, 102. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _0, 1010 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _7, 104. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _3, 105. SELLING HEROIN _0, 106. AUTO THEFT _2, 107. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _1, 108. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _0, 109. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _0, 1010. SNIFFING GLUE _0, 8
Llad Phillips 15
Center of the Scores DistributionCenter of the Scores Distribution
Mode: most likelyMode: most likely Median: middle personMedian: middle person Average: sum of scores divided by total Average: sum of scores divided by total
number of peoplenumber of people
Llad Phillips 16
Dispersion of Scores DistributionDispersion of Scores Distribution
Measures of dispersionMeasures of dispersion Standard deviationStandard deviation Inter-quartile rangeInter-quartile range Range: Maximum - MinimumRange: Maximum - Minimum
Llad Phillips 17
Dispersion Versus Seriousness, W 06
Possession of Pot
Sniffi ng Glue
Prostitution
Embezzlement
Auto Theft
Heroin
Arson
Rape
Poisoning
Homicide
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Median
P
Policy is easier
Policy is more difficult
Llad Phillips 18
Disagreement Versus Seriousness, 02
Arson
Selling Heroin
Auto Theft
Embezzle
Mass Poisoning
Rape
Homicide
Prostitute
Possess Pot
Sniff Glue
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Score
Dis
per
sio
n (
Sta
nd
ard
Dev
iati
on
)
Homicide2004
Seriousness Scores, Spring 2001 .
Auto Theft
Arson
Selling Heroin
PoisoningMarijuana
Prostitute
Sniffing Glue
Rape
Homicide
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
Average
Embezzlement
Sta
ndar
d D
evia
tion
or
Dis
pers
ion
Llad Phillips 20
Average scores 2001 and 2002
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Score 2001
Sco
re 2
002
Llad Phillips 21
Bureau of Justice Statistics,Report to the Nation
The Alternativep.173
One more step: converting seriousness scores to a metric (years of sentence or Loss rate of $)
The Economics of Crime Control, Ch. 4
Llad Phillips 22
Types of CrimeTypes of Crime
Motivation: self-interest, greedMotivation: self-interest, greed Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft, Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft,
larcenylarceny White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion, White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion,
check fraud, telephone fraudcheck fraud, telephone fraud Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant, Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant,
beyond control of parentsbeyond control of parents Black Market: gambling, prostitution,drugsBlack Market: gambling, prostitution,drugs
Llad Phillips 23
Types of CrimeTypes of Crime Motivation: Hate, RageMotivation: Hate, Rage
Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, raperape
Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, terrorismterrorism
Hate CrimesHate Crimes Columbine HighColumbine High James Byrd: dragging death in TexasJames Byrd: dragging death in Texas Jewish Community Center in Granada HillsJewish Community Center in Granada Hills
Llad Phillips 24
Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime
Llad Phillips 25
Questions About CrimeQuestions About Crime
Does the Business Cycle Affect Crime Does the Business Cycle Affect Crime Rates?Rates?
Does an Individual’s Life Cycle Affect Does an Individual’s Life Cycle Affect Crime Rates?Crime Rates?
Why do some people live socially Why do some people live socially unproductive lives?unproductive lives?
Llad Phillips 26
Two Points About Economic Conditions and CrimeTwo Points About Economic Conditions and Crime Relationship of Crime to the Business CycleRelationship of Crime to the Business Cycle
Short RunShort Run: Business Cycle: Business Cycle Is Phil Cook wrong?Is Phil Cook wrong? California: the misery index and crimeCalifornia: the misery index and crime
misery index = unemployment rate + inflation ratemisery index = unemployment rate + inflation rate
Relationship of Crime to the Life CycleRelationship of Crime to the Life Cycle Long RunLong Run Investment in EducationInvestment in Education Role of the FamilyRole of the Family
Llad Phillips 27
California Unemployment Rate and Inflation Rate, 1952-2004
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Pe
r C
en
t
unemployment rate
inflation rate
misery rate
Llad Phillips 28
CA Crime Index Per 1000 and Misery Index (Percent), 1952-2004
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Ra
te
Misery index
CA Crime Index
Llad Phillips 29
CA Crime Index(t) = a +b*Misery Index(t)CA Crime Index(t) = a +b*Misery Index(t)
-0.015
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
Residual Actual Fitted
CA Crime Index Per Capita Versus Misery Index
Llad Phillips 30
CA Crime Index Per 1000 Vs. Misery Index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
Misery Index
Cri
me
Ind
ex
2002
1952
1980
1954
California: Crime Index Versus Misery Index .
y = -0.1702x 2 + 6.0493x - 16.491
R2 = 0.7761
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
Misery Index
Cri
me I
nd
ex
Observed Data
Quadratic Fit
US Unemployment Rates, Males, Seasonally Adjusted .
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Ja
n-8
9
Jul-
89
Jan
-90
Jul-
90
Jan
-91
Jul-
91
Jan
-92
Jul-
92
Jan
-93
Jul-
93
Jan
-94
Jul-
94
Jan
-95
Jul-
95
Jan
-96
Jul-
96
Jan
-97
Jul-
97
Jan
-98
Jul-
98
Jan
-99
Jul-
99
Date
Rate
White, 20 plus
Black, 20 plus
Unemployment Rates, Seasonally Adjusted, Males 16-19 .
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Feb
-89
Au
g-8
9
Feb
-90
Au
g-9
0
Feb
-91
Au
g-9
1
Feb
-92
Au
g-9
2
Feb
-93
Au
g-9
3
Feb
-94
Au
g-9
4
Feb
-95
Au
g-9
5
Feb
-96
Au
g-9
6
Feb
-97
Au
g-9
7
Feb
-98
Au
g-9
8
Feb
-99
Au
g-9
9
Date
Rate
White Male 16-19
Black Male 16-19
Llad Phillips 34
An Individual’s Life Cycle for a Socially Productive LifeAn Individual’s Life Cycle for a Socially Productive Life Learning over the life cycleLearning over the life cycle Accumulating earning power or human Accumulating earning power or human
capitalcapital Earnings depend uponEarnings depend upon
abilityability knowledgeknowledge work experiencework experience
Llad Phillips 35
Productive Life Cycle
Social Institution
Family - PreSchool - School - College - Job - Retirement
Function
Learning: Accumulating Human Capital - Earning - Spending
Age Line
0 4 6 18 23 65
Llad Phillips 36
Accumulating Human Capital
Inflow OutflowStock
Llad Phillips 37
Accumulating Human Capital
StockInflow +
-
OutflowNet Inflow
Llad Phillips 38
Accumulating Human Capital
HumanCapital
Learning +
-
DepreciationInvestment
Llad Phillips 39
Allocation of Your Time
Human Capital
Build Capitalby Learning
Use Capitalfor Earning
Llad Phillips 40
Time Endowment
24 hours
Llad Phillips 41
24 hours0 hoursLeisure(learning)
Llad Phillips 42
Allocation of Your Time
Human Capital
Build Capitalby Learning
Use Capitalfor Earning
Llad Phillips 43
24 hours0 hoursLeisure(learning)
Earnings
$480 Opportunities for trading leisurefor earnings (income) at a rate,$20 per hour, determined by yourstock of human capital
$ 0
Llad Phillips 44
Salaries by Education Level, CAFull Time* WorkersSalaries by Education Level, CAFull Time* WorkersEducation Salary WageNo HS Dipl. $26,115 $13.06 HS Dipl. $27,326 $13.69Bachelor’s $44,426 $26.39Master’s $52,787 $26.97Doctorate $59,348 $29.67Professional $77,877 $38.94
*Full Time: >35 hrs/wk, >48 wks/yr.; Source: LA Times, 1-10-93
24 hours0 hoursLeisure(learning)
Earnings
$480
$ 0
$240
dropout
college grad
Llad Phillips 46
Economists Assume You Can make ComparisonsEconomists Assume You Can make Comparisons For example: you can compare a high level For example: you can compare a high level
of your income and a low level of your of your income and a low level of your leisure leisure withwith a low level of your income and a low level of your income and a high level of your leisurea high level of your leisure
24 hours0 hoursLeisure(learning)
Earnings
$480
$ 0
Iso-Preference Curves:You value all points on a curve equally
high
low value
high value
24 hours0 hoursLeisure(learning)
Earnings
$480
$ 0
high
low value
high value
Optimum
15 hoursof leisure
$180for 9 hrsof work
24 hours0 hoursLeisure(learning)
Earnings
$480
$ 0
high
low value
slope of the iso-preference curve through the 24 hour endowment is the lowest wage at which you are willing to work
24 hours0 hoursLeisure(learning)
Earnings
$480
$ 0
high
low value
slope of the iso-preference curve through the 24 hour endowment is the lowest wage at which you are willing to work
$96
dropout is unwilling to work for $4/hr
Llad Phillips 51
Participation in the Labor Force:Willing to look for workParticipation in the Labor Force:Willing to look for work If your market wage exceeds your If your market wage exceeds your
reservation wagereservation wage college grad, @$20/hr, participatescollege grad, @$20/hr, participates the junior high dropout, @ $4/hr, does notthe junior high dropout, @ $4/hr, does not
We assumed the college grad and the We assumed the college grad and the dropout both have the same values for dropout both have the same values for income and leisureincome and leisure
Only their learning histories differ Only their learning histories differ
24 hours0 hoursLeisure(learning)
Earnings
$480
$ 0
high
low value
slope of the iso-preference curve through the 24 hour endowment is the lowest wage at which you are willing to work
$96
dropout is unwilling to work for $4/hr
Llad Phillips 53
Hazards to Personal SuccessHazards to Personal Success
Dropping outDropping out Joining gangsJoining gangs Anti-social behavior Anti-social behavior
Llad Phillips 55
Productive Life Cycle
Social Institution
Family - PreSchool - School - College - Job - Retirement
Function
Learning: Accumulating Human Capital - Earning - Spending
Age Line
0 4 6 18 23 65
Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes
Choice
Legal work
Illegal work
Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes
Choice
Legal work
Illegal work
Unemployed (fail)
Employed (succeed)
Apprehended (fail)
Not Apprehended(succeed)
Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes
Choice
Legal work
Illegal work
Unemployed (fail)
Employed (succeed)
Apprehended (fail)
Not Apprehended(succeed)
0.1
0.9
$0
$12,000/yr
0.2
0.8
$0
$14,000
Expected legal Income = 0.9*$12,000 = $10,800
Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes
Choice
Legal work
Illegal work
Unemployed (fail)
Employed (succeed)
Apprehended (fail)
Not Apprehended(succeed)
0.1
0.9
$0
$12,000/yr
0.2
0.8
$0
$14,000/yr
Expected illegal income = 0.8*$14,000 = $11,200
Expected legal Income = 0.95*$12,000 = $11,400
Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes
Choice
Legal work
Illegal work
Unemployed (fail)
Employed (succeed)
Apprehended (fail)
Not Apprehended(succeed)
0.1
0.9
$0
$12,000/yr
0.2
0.8
$0
$14,000/yr
Expected illegal income = 0.8*$14,000 = $11,200
0.05
0.95
Llad Phillips 61
Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain a full-employment economyMaintain a full-employment economy
Expected legal Income = 0.9*$12,000 = $10,800
Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes
Choice
Legal work
Illegal work
Unemployed (fail)
Employed (succeed)
Apprehended (fail)
Not Apprehended(succeed)
0.1
0.9
$0
$12,000/yr
0.2
0.8
$0
$14,000/yr
Expected illegal income = 0.7*$14,000 = $9,800
0.3
0.7
Llad Phillips 63
Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice
SystemSystem keep the probability of apprehension highkeep the probability of apprehension high
Expected legal Income = 0.9*$12,000 = $10,800
Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes
Choice
Legal work
Illegal work
Unemployed (fail)
Employed (succeed)
Apprehended (fail)
Not Apprehended(succeed)
0.1
0.9
$0
$12,000/yr
0.2
0.8
-$3,000 (fine)
$14,000/yrExpected illegal income = 0.8*$14,000 - 0.2*$3,000 = $10,600
$0
Llad Phillips 65
Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Punish the criminalPunish the criminal
make crime less attractivemake crime less attractive
Llad Phillips 66
Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain a full-employment economyMaintain a full-employment economy Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice
SystemSystem keep the probability of apprehension highkeep the probability of apprehension high
Punish the criminalPunish the criminal make crime less attractivemake crime less attractive
Llad Phillips 67
SummarySummary
Your economic status affects your probable Your economic status affects your probable behavior: work or crimebehavior: work or crime
Earning power affects your probable Earning power affects your probable behaviorbehavior
When you are are a young teen you need a When you are are a young teen you need a parent or role model to motivate you to stay parent or role model to motivate you to stay in school and keep learningin school and keep learning
Llad Phillips 68
Llad Phillips 69
Number of Responses Versus Score for Homicide
1 30 0 0 0 1 2 1
15
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Score
Nu
mb
er2003
Llad Phillips 70
Class Survey 2003Class Survey 2003
Scoring Ten BehaviorsScoring Ten Behaviors 113 Responses113 Responses No two are the sameNo two are the same Two most similar responsesTwo most similar responses Two most different responsesTwo most different responses
Llad Phillips 71
Similar ScoringsSimilar ScoringsHomicide 10 10Poisoning 10 10Rape 10 10Arson 7 8Sell Heroin 7 5Auto Theft 4 7Embezzle 4 4Prostitute 5 2Possess Pot 3 1Sniff Glue 0 0
Llad Phillips 72
Different ScoringsDifferent ScoringsHomicide 10 1Poisoning 10 5Rape 10 2Arson 10 4Sell Heroin 8 3Auto Theft 9 6Embezzle 7 7Prostitute 7 8Possess Pot 5 9Sniff Glue 8 10
Llad Phillips 73
Number of Responses Versus Score for Homicide
1 30 0 0 0 1 2 1
15
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Score
Nu
mb
er2003
Llad Phillips 74
Dispersion Versus Median Score, 2003
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Median Score
Dis
per
sio
n
Llad Phillips 75
Econ 160 Fall 99 Class Ratings .
Sniff Glue
MarijuanaProstitute
Embezzlement
Sell HeroinAuto Theft
ArsonPoisoning
RapeHomicide
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
Standard Deviation: Dispersion
Mea
n R
atin
g
Llad Phillips 76
SERIOUSNESS SURVEY
RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS):
MEDIAN ‘03 ‘051. HOMICIDE _10 10__2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _ 9 8__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _ 9 9__4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _ 7 7__5. SELLING HEROIN _ 6 6__6. AUTO THEFT _ 5.5 6__7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _ 4 4__8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _ 3 3__9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 2 2__10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 1 1__
Llad Phillips 77
Misery Index, California 1952-2003
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
year
Rat
e
unemployment rate
inflation rate
misery index
Llad Phillips 78
California Misery Index and Crime Index, 1952-2002
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Ra
te
CA Misery Index
CA Crime Index Per 1000
California: Crime Index Versus Misery Index .
1970
1992
1975
1998
1980
1952
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
Misery Index
Cri
me I
nd
ex