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Instructions for changing the title slide image: Enter Slide Master View Go to the title slide and right-click the image. Choose Change Picture. Choose the image you want and press the Insert button. Right-click the image and choose Format Picture. There are four icons at the top of the Format Shape pane. Click the 4 th one, called Picture. Open up Crop (the fourth section down). In Crop Position, change the width to 25.4cm and change Left to 0. Finally, in the Picture Tools Format tab (at the top of the window), click the arrow at the bottom of the Crop button. From the dropdown menu, choose Fill and then click any area that’s not on the slide to finish. SETTING THE GLOBAL STANDARD LME Metals Seminar 2021 Monday 11 October, London and online
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Page 1: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Instructions for changing the title slide image:• Enter Slide Master View• Go to the title slide and right-click the image. Choose Change Picture.• Choose the image you want and press the Insert button.• Right-click the image and choose Format Picture.• There are four icons at the top of the Format Shape pane. Click the 4th one, called Picture.• Open up Crop (the fourth section down). In Crop Position, change the width to 25.4cm and change Left to 0.• Finally, in the Picture Tools Format tab (at the top of the window), click the arrow at the bottom of the Crop

button. From the dropdown menu, choose Fill and then click any area that’s not on the slide to finish.

SETTING THE GLOBAL STANDARD

LME Metals Seminar 2021

Monday 11 October, London and online

Page 2: LME Metals Seminar 2021

2

Many thanks to our sponsors

Page 3: LME Metals Seminar 2021

3

POLL

First it was toilet roll, then HGV drivers and CO2, and now petrol at the pumps…what’s next for the UK’s lengthening list of shortages?

1.Crisps2.Meat3.Alcohol4.Christmas trees5.Cars6.Good poll questions

Polls sponsored by:

Page 4: LME Metals Seminar 2021

4

POLL 1 RESULTS

Polls sponsored by:

Page 5: LME Metals Seminar 2021
Page 6: LME Metals Seminar 2021

• The recovery so far.

• The outlook for China, US and other major economies.

• The outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

• The long term effects of the pandemic.

• The implications for commodity markets.

1. Agenda

Page 7: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

2. Global GDP (Q4 2019 = 100)

85

90

95

100

105

85

90

95

100

105

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Page 8: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

3. GDP Q3 2021 vs. Pre-Virus Peak (%-diff)

-8-6-4-20246810

-8-6-4-202468

10

Page 9: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

4. China GDP (CE Measure, Q4 2019 = 100)

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2018 2019 2020 2021

Actual Pre-virus CE forecast

Page 10: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: CEIC, Refinitiv, Capital Economics

5. China Exports (US$, Dec. 19 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2018 2019 2020 2021

Furniture, toys & plastic goods

Electronics (incl. home appliances)

Other goods

Textiles, garments, bags & footwear(incl. face masks)

Page 11: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

6. US Imports of Consumer Durable Goods ($bn)

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Page 12: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: CEIC, WIND, Capital Economics

7. China Fixed Investment (Dec. 2019=100, seas. adj.)

70

80

90

100

110

120

70

80

90

100

110

120

Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21

ManufacturingInfrastructureReal EstateTotal

Jan. & Feb. data averaged

Page 13: LME Metals Seminar 2021

• The government is prioritising homebuyers, then suppliers in a managed restructuring of Evergrande. Banks, bondholders face losses.

• Many small developers are stressed, but the balance sheets of other large developers are far healthier than Evergrande’s.

• Policymakers have the ability to prevent financial contagion but an economic headwind is inevitable:

• Controls on developer financing have led to a drop in project starts. New property sales are declining despite price cuts.

• Further ahead, a structural slowdown looms. Demand for new residential property is likely to halve this decade, as urbanization and new household formation slow.

8. Consequences of Evergrande’s Collapse

Page 14: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Source: Capital Economics

9. China Activity Proxy (% y/y)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

CE forecasts

Page 15: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Google, Apple, Capital Economics

10. CE COVID Mobility Trackers in Selected DMs (% Diff. from Pre-Virus Level, 7D MA)

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

Germany US UK

Page 16: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

11. Developed Markets GDP Growth (% q/q)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-10.3

+9.3CE forecasts

Page 17: LME Metals Seminar 2021

• Economic crises tend to leave a legacy of permanently reduced output.

• This is because crises tend to impair household and corporate balance sheets.

• The subsequent need to repair balance sheets depresses demand (e.g. after the 2008 financial crisis).

• But this time may be different…

12. This time is different

Page 18: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

13. DM Households’ Currency & Deposits ($trn)

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

2018 2019 2020 2021

"Excess" accumulation of cash

Currency & deposits

Five-year trend

$3.5tn

Page 19: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

14. Lending to Private Sector (% y/y)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12USEuro-zoneUK

Page 20: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

15. Business Survey Measures of Labour Shortages (Std. Dev. From Long-Run Average, 3m Ave.)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

US (NFIB: % firms finding it hard to fill roles)Euro-zone (EC: % firms labour shortages biggest problem)UK (BoE Agents' score of recruitment difficulties)

Below average since 2000

Above average since 2000

Page 21: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Eurostat, Capital Economics

16. Labour Force Participation Rate(55+ Years Old, % Change Since End-2019)

US UK(65+)

Canada Italy France Spain-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Page 22: LME Metals Seminar 2021

• Most shortages will prove short-lived…

• …but concerns about lower labour supply in the US?

• Some “destruction” of capital (e.g. office space)…

• …but small in the grand scheme and offset by a boost to investment in other areas (e.g. digital tech).

• New ways of working could boost productivity?

17. Will the pandemic damage supply potential?

Page 23: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

18. Global GDP (2018 = 100)

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Global GDP

Pre-GFC Trend

Pre-COVIDTrend

CE forecasts

Page 24: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

19. Contributions to Headline Inflation in G4 Economies (%-pts)

Jan 2020 May 2020 Sep 2020 Jan 2021 May 2021-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4 EnergyFoodOthersTotal Inflation

Page 25: LME Metals Seminar 2021

• Globalisation has peaked and US-China decoupling could contribute to a rise inflation pressures in some sectors.

• Demographics have gone from exerting downward pressure to upward pressure on inflation.

• Firms will face new costs – including to green economies.

• Central banks’ and governments’ attitudes towards inflation is changing (more on this later).

20. Some structural disinflationary forces are fading…

Page 26: LME Metals Seminar 2021

• Labour markets remain highly flexible and workers’ institutional bargaining power remains limited.

• Inflation expectations remain well anchored at low levels.

• New technologies will continue to bear down on capital goods prices.

• The development of the gig economy and remote working points to even greater labour market flexibility in some sectors.

• Structural changes in the global economy mean that inflation pressures are now more likely to show up in asset prices (e.g. housing) than consumer prices.

21. …but some disinflationary forces persist

Page 27: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

22. Headline CPI of Selected DMs (% y/y)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US UK Euro-zone

CE forecasts

Page 28: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

23. Policy Interest Rates (%)

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US UK Euro-zone

CE forecasts

Page 29: LME Metals Seminar 2021

• Evergrande problems unlikely to cause China’s economy to collapse but pandemic has deepened structural challenges.

• Advanced economies will stage a full recovery from the pandemic (different from 2008). But best of the recovery now behind us – the hard part lies ahead.

• Inflation is likely to fall back in all major economies next year as bottlenecks ease. But several countries are facing higher medium-term inflation. Risks greatest in US.

24. Three themes for commodity markets

Page 30: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

26. CE China Copper Demand Proxy & Copper Price

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20222,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

-20-15-10-505

101520253035 CE Copper Demand Proxy (% y/y, 2m Adv., LHS)

LME Copper Price (US$ per Tonne, RHS)

China 'hard landing' fears

Page 31: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics

27. Long Run Real Price Forecasts (US$ per Tonne)

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Copper (LHS) Al umini um (RHS)

China's economicslowdown

Transition to a greener global economy

Page 32: LME Metals Seminar 2021

• Global economy will stage a full recovery from the COVID crisis, but we’re entering the hard part.

• In DMs, supply constraints will remain a brake on growth in 2022. China is facing bigger problems. Global GDP growth will slow next year.

• Inflation is likely to fall back in all major economies next year. But some countries are facing higher medium-term inflation. Risks greatest in US.

• Interest rates will start to normalise – but process will be slow.

28. Conclusions

Page 33: LME Metals Seminar 2021

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Contact Us

Page 34: LME Metals Seminar 2021

34

Moderator: Yang Liu, Head of China Sales, London Metal Exchange

Panellists:• Xiao Amelia Fu, Head of Global Commodities Strategy, Bank of China International• Nick Snowdon, Goldman Sachs• Yanchen Wang, General Manager, SMM UK

China’s role in the global metals market

Questions:Ask a question using the Q&A box on the “Main stage”

Scan the QR code on the back of your badge to access the app

Page 35: LME Metals Seminar 2021

35

China’s Economic Indicators Showed Signs of Slowdown

35

Source: BOCI Global Commodities, Bloomberg

China Manufacturing PMI Recovered First, But

Fell Below 50 in Sep

China’s FAI Decelerated, But Infrastructure FAI Could

Improve in Q4 and 2022 to Stabilize Growth

Page 36: LME Metals Seminar 2021

3636

China Monetary Guidance Shifted to Stability with Easing

Source: BOCI Global Commodities, Reuters

China’s LPR Remained Stable for 17 months

Page 37: LME Metals Seminar 2021

37

37

China’s EV Sales Continued to Increase

Source: BOCI Global Commodities, Bloomberg

China’s EV Share of New Passenger Vehicle Sales

China’s EV Sales Continued to Rise Strongly in 2021

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Page 38: LME Metals Seminar 2021

3838

China’s EV Sales Long Term Trends

China’s EV Sales Long Term Bullish

Source: BOCI Global Commodities, Bloomberg

China’s EV Share of New Passenger Vehicle Sales

Could Reach Close to 80% in 2040

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Page 39: LME Metals Seminar 2021

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30Investment Actually Completed in Fixed Assets, Accumulated Growth Rate Y/YTotal Retail Sales of Consumer Goods Y/YTotal Value of Exports Y/Y

Growth rates of domestic consumption and export value

%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2019 2020 2021 2021 Y/Y (RHS)

Total value of exports from ChinaBillion US$

Data source: SMM, NBS

Note: 2021 growth rates are two-year average rates against 2019

Strong export is a crucial driver of China’s economy recovery in 2021

Page 40: LME Metals Seminar 2021

China primary aluminium GHG emission curve

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Indirect power-related emissions (Scope 2)

Direct power-related emissions (Scope 1)

Direct non-power-related emissions (Scope 1)

Cumulative production (10kt)

Primary aluminium GHG emissions curve, Scope 1 and 2t CO2e/t Al

Data source: SMM

Page 41: LME Metals Seminar 2021

The proportion of thermal power will continue decreasing in Chinese power market

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Hydropower Thermal Nuclear Wind Solar

Chinese electricity generation by power source

%

Data source: SMM, NBS

Page 42: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Chinese aluminium and copper scrap imports

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200 US Hong Kong Malaysia Others Y/Y(RHS)

Chinese monthly aluminium scrap importskt

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200Malaysia Japan EU27 US

Hong Kong Others Y/Y(RHS)

Chinese monthly copper scrap importskt

Data source: SMM, China Customs

Page 43: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Strong growth of Chinese NEVs market since H2 2020

Data source: SMM, CAAM

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2018 2019 2020 2021

Monthly NEVs output in Chinak units

-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Y/Y(RHS)

Monthly auto production in ChinaM units

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

NEVs output (LHS)

2018-2025 NEVs output in ChinaMillion units

New energy vehicle penetration rate:

5.4% 22%4.5%

Y2018 Y2020 Y2025E

CAGR:+35%

Page 44: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Real estate market in China

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Floor Space of Real Estate Started This Year, Accumulated(10000 sq.m)Floor Space of Real Estate Completed, Accumulated(10000 sq.m)Y/Y of Floor Space of Real Estate Started, Accumulated(%)Y/Y of Floor Space of Real Estate Completed, Accumulated(%)Y/Y of Development and Sales of Real Estate, Land Space Purchased, Accumulated(%)

Accumulated floor space of real estate started and completed in China10,000sq.m(LHS), %(RHS)

Data source: SMM, NBS

Page 45: LME Metals Seminar 2021

051015202530354045

05

101520253035404550 Premiums of battery-grade nickel sulphate over first-grade nickel briquette(LHS)

Battery-grade nickel sulphate (RHS)

Nickel sulphate premium again refined nickel remains high`000 yuan/t Nickel content `000 yuan/t Nickel Sulphate

-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000Production Imports Demand Exports Balance(RHS)

Nickel sulphate market balance in ChinaT(Nickel content)

Data source: SMM, China Customs

High premium supports refined nickel consumption for Ni sulphate

-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 Australia Russia Canada NorwaySouth Africa Others Y/Y(RHS)

Chinese monthly refined nickel importskt

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Australia Papua New Guinea New CaledoniaFinland Turkey IndonesiaCuba Others Average price(RHS)

China's nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate products importskt(LHS), US$/t(RHS)

Page 46: LME Metals Seminar 2021

0

10

20

30

40

50 Cobalt ores and concentratesCobalt Mattes And Other Intermediate Products

Cobalt imports from DRCkt

406080100120140160180

050

100150200250300350400450500

SMM refined cobalt (LHS) SMM tricobalt tetraoxide (LHS)SMM cobalt chloride (RHS) SMM cobalt sulphate (RHS)

Refined cobalt and cobalt compounds prices in China`000 yuan/t

Data source: SMM, China Customs

China remains overdependent on DRC cobalt supply

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000Unwrought cobalt (LHS)Cobalt intermediate products (LHS)Cobalt ore (LHS)Average import price of cobalt intermediate products (RHS)

China's cobalt products imports (metal content)T(LHS), $/t(RHS)

-1,000-800-600-400-20002004006008001,000

-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000

02,0004,0006,0008,000 Output Demand Export Balance(RHS)

Cobalt sulphate market balance in ChinaT

Page 47: LME Metals Seminar 2021

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

08/2

019

09/2

019

10/2

019

11/2

019

12/2

019

01/2

020

02/2

020

03/2

020

04/2

020

05/2

020

06/2

020

07/2

020

08/2

020

09/2

020

10/2

020

11/2

020

12/2

020

01/2

021

02/2

021

03/2

021

04/2

021

05/2

021

06/2

021

07/2

021

08/2

021

SMM lithium hydroxide LCE price - SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate price(RHS)

Lithium carbonate price(LHS)

Lithium hydroxide price(LHS)

Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices in China`000 yuan/t (RHS, LHS)

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000 Output Imports Demand Exports Balance (RHS)

Lithium carbonate market balanceT

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000Output Imports Demand Exports Balance (RHS)

Lithium hydroxide market balance in ChinaT

Data source: SMM

Strong demand pushes the lithium market into deficit

Page 48: LME Metals Seminar 2021

48

Moderator: Yang Liu, Head of China Sales, London Metal Exchange

Panellists:• Xiao Amelia Fu, Head of Global Commodities Strategy, Bank of China International• Nick Snowdon, Goldman Sachs• Yanchen Wang, General Manager, SMM UK

China’s role in the global metals market

Questions:Ask a question using the Q&A box on the “Main stage”

Scan the QR code on the back of your badge to access the app

Page 49: LME Metals Seminar 2021

49

POLL

Which metal carries the most upside potential for the year ahead?

1.Aluminium2.Copper3.Lead4.Nickel5.Tin6.Zinc

Polls sponsored by:

Page 50: LME Metals Seminar 2021

50

POLL 2 RESULTS

Polls sponsored by:

Page 51: LME Metals Seminar 2021

51

Moderator: Mark Burton, Journalist, Bloomberg

Panellists:• Aluminium – Tim Weiner, Vice President Aluminum Pricing & Risk Management, Harbor Aluminum• Copper – Vanessa Davidson, Director of Base Metals Research and Strategy, CRU• Lead and zinc – Duncan Hobbs, Research Manager, Concord Resources• Nickel – Jessica Fung, Head Strategist, Pala Investments• Tom Mulqueen, Head of Research, Amalgamated Metal Trading

The Metals Debate

Questions:Ask a question using the Q&A box on the “Main stage”

Scan the QR code on the back of your badge to access the app

Page 52: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Copper Outlook 2022: Market loses some of its sparkle

October 2021

Vanessa DavidsonDirector of Copper Research & Strategy

LME Seminar – The Metals DebateQEII Conference Centre

Page 53: LME Metals Seminar 2021

This presentation is private and confidential. It must not be disclosed in whole or in part, directly or indirectly or in any other format without the prior written permission of CRU International Limited.

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Although reasonable care and diligence has been used in the preparation of this presentation, we do not guarantee the accuracy of any data, assumptions, forecasts or other forward-looking statements. We accept no liability to third parties, howsoever arising.

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Copyright CRU International Limited 2021. All rights reserved.

Legal notice

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Page 54: LME Metals Seminar 2021

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Actual Annual Average

Copper price has doubled since March 2020 lows…

Review of 2021: Copper price peaks at record high in May

54DATA: Comex, LME, SHFE, Bank of Japan, ECB, PBoC, US Federal Reserve, CRU

05

101520253035

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Federal Reserve ECB Bank of Japan PBoC

…supported by expansionary monetary & fiscal policy...

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

LME COMEX SHFE non-bonded

…at a time of very low volumes of exchange stocks

LME 3M Price (nominal), $ /t (LHS) and $ /lb (RHS)

End of month LME, Comex and SHFE exchange stocks, ‘000 t

Selected central bank assets, $ trn

-800

-400

0

400

800

1,200

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

…which underpinned a rapid recovery in copper demand…Annual change in world refined copper consumption, ‘000t

www.crugroup.com

Page 55: LME Metals Seminar 2021

55

2022 Demand: Onwards and upwards but regional shift underway

16,000

19,000

22,000

25,00020

10

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Global Linear (Global)

Global refined copper consumption, ‘000 t

5,000

10,000

15,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

China Linear (China)

Chinese refined copper consumption, ‘000 t

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

World ex-China Linear (World ex-China)

World ex-China refined copper consumption, ‘000 t

DATA: CRU www.crugroup.com

Page 56: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Longer term demand: Green energy transition is gathering pace

56DATA: CRU. ICE = Internal combustion engine, HEV = Hybrid electric vehicle, PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, BEV = Battery electric vehicle, FCEV = Fuel cell electric vehicle, NEV = New energy vehicle

1

7

15

29

43

52

57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 20 25 30 35 40 45

ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV NEV share

Global LDV sales by powertrain, Units M NEV (PHEV + BEV) share, %

2

5

9

16

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

20

22

24

26

28

30

2015 20 25 30 35

Total excluding green energy Electric vehicles

Renewables Grid (incremental)

Green energy share

Global refined copper consumption, Mt Green energy share, %

www.crugroup.com

Page 57: LME Metals Seminar 2021

2022 Supply: Growth in mine output reliant on new projects

57

7.9%

2.3%

4.3%

5.6%

-0.1%

2.9%

0.0%

-0.7%

3.6%

2.9%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Global copper mine production y/y growth; %

DATA : CRU, NOTE: (1) Mutanda due to restart in 2022. Since this is treated as an existing operation, it is not included in our list of projects.

Mine projects (capacity >= 50,000 t/y), ‘000 t

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Zone 5 StarterMina Justa

Sicomines Exp.Timok

QulongSpence Sulphides

Kamoa-Kakula I

Pinto Valley Ext.Los Pelambres Exp.

Toromocho Exp.Aktogay Exp.

UdokanKamoa-Kakula II

QB2Quellaveco

CommittedOperating

2021

2022

www.crugroup.com

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Mine disruption rate, % (LHS)

Page 58: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Longer term supply: Project approvals slow – more needed

58DATA : CRU

Oyu Tolgoi

El Teniente NML

Mirador

Oyu Tolgoi Exp.

Carrapateena,Spence

Aktogay Exp.

Toromocho Exp.

QuellavecoQB2

Mina Justa,Yulong

Los Pelambres Exp.

Kamoa-Kakula 1 & 2

Bingham Canyon Ext.

Timok

Qulong

Rajo Inca,Carrapateena BC

Kamoa-Kakula 3

Tenke FungurumeSulphides

Prominent Hill Exp.,Telfer Exp.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

LME 3M copper price, $/ t, and timeline of project approvals20

23

2024

2025

2026

0

100

200

300

400

500

OT

II

El T

en. N

ML

Car

rap'

na B

C

Salv

ador

Ext

.

Kins

ever

e S.

Man

to. S

ul.

Tenk

e F.

Sul

.

Mut

anda

Sul

.

Mal

myz

h

Ak-S

ug

Kans

ansh

i III

Sant

o D

om.

Sung

un II

I

Cob

re P

. Exp

.

Agua

Ric

a

Dez

iwa

II

Pum

p. H

. OP

Kisa

nfu

Col

l. 21

0 kt

pd

Cor

occo

'co

Sier

ra G

Opt

.

Eva

- Clo

n'ry

Elan

g

Kam

oa-K

. III

Bing

'm C

. Ext

.

Jose

mar

ia

Alem

ao

Col

l. Bi

ol'c

h

Que

brad

ona

Committed Probable Possible

Tiers 1 & 2 Project Pipeline (>50,000 t/y Cu), 2023-26

2023

2024

2025

2026

www.crugroup.com

Page 59: LME Metals Seminar 2021

59www.crugroup.com

2022 Price Outlook: Average price lower but remains historically elevated

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Balance LME 3M price

Tendency towards surplus persists in 2022Global refined copper balance, ‘000 t Cu (LHS); LME 3M price, US$ /t (RHS)

-4

0

4

8

12

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

CPIPPIShort term i/r10Y T-Bond

US inflation indicators, %

DATA: Oxford Economics, CRU

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30105

110

115

120

125

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

TW$ [LHS} $:€ [RHS]

Exchange rates

Page 60: LME Metals Seminar 2021

2022 Conclusions: Price and margin high relative to previous cycles

60

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1983 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22

Margin fLME 3MNet of by-product cash costs, 90th percentile

Producers to enjoy record marginsCopper price, costs and margin, $/ t (nominal)

World demand growth slows in 2022, after recovery in 2021

Growth in mine supply decelerates; projects important

Small market surplus forecast (<0.5% of global consumption)…

…keeping stock levels low

Average 2022 prices edge down but…

…downside is limited; price volatility persists

Green energy transition & lack of supply attract investors

Record producer margins in 2022 and beyond

2022 Key Indicators:

DATA: CRU www.crugroup.com

Page 61: LME Metals Seminar 2021

CRU International LimitedLondon | Sydney | Tokyo | Beijing | Shanghai | Singapore | Mumbai | New York | Pittsburgh | Sao Paulo | Santiago

Registered in England No.940750. Registered office: Charles House, 108-110 Finchley Road, London NW3 5JJ

Vanessa DavidsonDirector of Copper Research & Strategy+44 20 7903 [email protected]

Page 62: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Concord Resources LimitedDuncan Hobbs – Research Director

[email protected]

LME Week Seminar metals debate: Zinc & lead

LME Week SeminarLondon & online – 11th October 2021

Page 63: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Disclaimer

63

The entire content of this document is strictly confidential and subject to international copyright laws and other intellectual property rights with all rights reserved. No part ofthis document may be redistributed to any other person in whole or in part, stored in a retrieval system, modified, linked into, republished, uploaded or transmitted in anyform or by any means electronic or mechanical or by photocopying, scanning, recording or otherwise, without the express written permission of Concord Resources Limited(“Concord”) and by accepting this document, you agree to keep confidential the information contained herein and not use it for any purpose other than evaluating theinformation contained herein.

The information contained herein has been obtained from and opinions are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable but Concord does not make anyrepresentation with respect to any information contained herein and it should not be relied upon. The use of any information herein does not imply any verification of suchinformation. All opinions, forecasts and estimates reflect Concord’s judgement when this document was prepared and are subject to change without notice. In addition, anystrategies, projections and plans described in this document are subject to change at any time at Concord’s sole discretion. The information and projections containedherein are not a guarantee of future results. Any terms herein are intended for discussion purposes only and are subject to the final terms of final, written agreements.

This document and its contents and any discussion thereof do not constitute any offer to any person nor constitute any legal, regulatory, tax or accounting device and theauthors do not recommend to any person any transaction discussed or referred to herein.

Any liability of whatsoever nature and howsoever arising of Concord relating to the contents of this document is hereby expressly disclaimed to the extent permitted by law.

Concord Resources Limited

October 2021

Page 64: LME Metals Seminar 2021

LME Week Seminar metals debate – zinc & lead

64

Zinc market

Lead market

Summary

Page 65: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Zinc marketA year ago the world zinc metal market was widely expected to run a surplus in 2021

65

Surplus

Deficit

Note: Original forecasts published September-October 2020. Latest estimates published June-October 2021.Source: CHR, CRU, ILZSG, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

Latest estimates still show a surplus on paper, but reduced vs original expectations as market imbalance narrows

Page 66: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Zinc marketWorld zinc metal demand has rebounded strongly in 2021

66

Note: Automotive output – cars and light trucks. Construction activity – gross value added at market exchange rates.Source: CRU, ILZSG, LMC, OEF, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

Galvanised steel production (±50%) and brass making (±17%) are key first use markets in primary zinc consumption

Automotive output and construction activity are key markets for galvanised steel and zinc diecast alloys

Page 67: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Zinc marketA year ago world zinc mine output was widely expected to rise sharply in 2021

67

Note: Chart on left – original forecasts published October-December 2020. Latest estimates published April-October 2021. Chart on right – zinc mine revenues basis spot market terms, annual averages, 2011-2021 YTD. Source: CHR, CRU, FM, ILZSG, SHFE, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

Latest estimates of the expected increase in world zinc mine output this year have fallen vs original expectations

In China, the relationship between zinc mine revenue and output growth has been breaking down in recent years

Page 68: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Zinc marketPhysical zinc market price signals have been mainly positive this year to date

68

Note: Spot premiums for special high-grade (SHG) zinc ingot. China data series CIF Far East 2005-2016, CIF China 2017FF. Spot TCs for standard clean zinc concentrates.Source: CRU, FM, LME, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

Spot zinc metal premiums have recently spiked to multi-year highs in USA & Europe (don’t forget freight impact), but lagging in China

Spot zinc treatment charges have recently ticked up but levels remain towards low end of long-run range

Page 69: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Zinc marketWorld zinc consumption driven by industrial production and intensity of use

69

Note: Industrial production and zinc consumption data 1998-2020. ZAM – Zinc-Aluminium-Magnesium. ZM – Zinc-Magnesium.Source: CPB, CRU, ILZSG, SteelConsult, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

YoY change in industrial production statistically explains majority of YoY change in world zinc consumption over the long run

Structural change curbing zinc use in key markets. ZAM / ZM 20%-40% lighter than free-zinc coatings in continuous galvanising

Page 70: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Lead marketPolarised – China overloaded, ex-China short

70

Aggregate world lead metal market supply adequate but distribution skewed, reflected in exchange stocks

SHFE lead metal stocks now around record high, LME lead metal stocks at lowest in over a decade

Note: Month end data to September 2021Source: LME, SHFE, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

Page 71: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Lead marketChina’s metal output up sharply this year, led by secondary producers; rest of world output weak

71

Jan-Jul 2021 China’s output up +9% YoY to ~2.95m tonnes (> 40% of world total), new record; secondary +24% YoY, primary -2% YoY

Ex-China production problems and unplanned outages reported in Germany and UK, plant closure in USA in February 2021

Note: Data to July 2021Source: ILZSG, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

Page 72: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Lead marketEx-China lead metal demand has been strong in key markets this year, reflected in physical price signals

72

Note: Battery shipment data to June 2021. Spot premiums for secondary 397 lead ingot.Source: BCI, FM, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

H1 2021 North American lead-acid battery shipments 71m units, +17% YoY; stronger gain than post-GFC, despite lesser base effect

Spot lead metal premiums hit (nominal) record highs this year in key markets ex-China (but again don’t forget freight impact)

Page 73: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Lead marketChina’s lead metal exports limited, in part by surge in ocean freight rates

73

Note: China lead metal exports basis HSC 7801.10.00, 7801.91.00 and 7801.99.00; monthly data, latest August 2021. World spot container freight index; weekly data, latest 7th October 2021. FFE – forty foot equivalent unit.Source: China Customs, Drewry Shipping Consultants, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

China’s lead metal exports spiked towards decade high in August (~55kta) but remain very small vs market size

Tax treatment has limited China’s lead metal exports since mid-2000s; surge in freight rates has been a further obstacle this year

Page 74: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Lead marketRisks to long-run lead demand loom on the horizon, especially for primary metal

74

Note: China’s e-bike fleet year-end data. Global EV sales monthly data to June 2021.Source: BBG, CHR, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

China’s e-bikes have been a big driver of lead demand; fleet may have peaked, smaller batteries in new e-bikes, some switching to Li-ion

Electric vehicle sales accelerating fast, taking market share from ICE vehicles; use smaller lead-acid batteries

Page 75: LME Metals Seminar 2021

SummaryLME Week Seminar metals debate – zinc & lead

75

Zinc metal market balance has been ‘better’ (i.e. surplus narrower) than originally expected this year, supporting prices

Industrial production is primary driver of zinc demand, slower growthforecast in 2022 vs 2021; mine supply key point to watch, especiallyChina

Long-run negative risks to intensity of zinc use from changing technology in galv coatings (continuous & batch) and high prices inDCAs, but less ‘scrap’ risk than for other metals (sacrificial corrosion)

World lead metal market polarised; China overloaded, rest of worldshort in 2021. Chinese exports should (eventually) contribute to rebalancing

Major risks to long-run lead demand loom on horizon, especially forprimary metal; possible return to past zinc-lead price ratios

Note: LME zinc-lead price ratio basis cash settlement prices; daily data to 7th October 2021. DCAs – die-cast alloys, mainly zinc-aluminium.Source: LME, Concord Resources Limited, October 2021

Page 76: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Concord Resources LimitedOur markets: every step of the supply chain

76

Aluminum Copper Zinc, lead, nickel

Origination

Storage / logistics

Consignments Prepays/financing Off-take/marketing Tolling

Consignments Prepays/financing Off-take/marketing Tolling

Consignments Prepays/financing Off-take/marketing Tolling

Swaps Prepays/financing Off-take/marketing Tolling

Off-take/marketing By-products from

concentrates

LME system Warehousing Shipping

LME system Warehousing Shipping Blending

LME system Warehousing Shipping Blending

Warehousing Shipping Blending

Vaulting

Alumina, bauxite Precious metals

Consumers

Aerospace Automotive Construction Packaging

Wire and cable Tubing Brass Smelters

Galvanizers Battery makers Stainless & alloy

steelmakers

Refineries Smelters

Banks Smelters

Products

P1020 Billets Alloys Rod

Cathode Copper rod Concentrates

SHG & CGG zinc 397 & 49s lead Primary nickel Concentrates

SGA Raw bauxite

Gold Silver PGMs

Metals

Page 77: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Concord Resources LimitedContact our marketing teams

77

437 MADISON AVENUE28TH FLOOR NEW YORK, NY 10022USA

Jeff RomanekSenior Trader AmericasTel: +1 212 822 [email protected]

3 ST JAMES’S SQUARELEVEL 8LONDON, SW1Y 4JUENGLAND

David FreelandSenior Trader EMEATel: +44 20 3879 [email protected]

#901, TWO CHINACHEM CENTRALNo. 26 DES VOEUX ROADCENTRALHONG KONG

Felix CauroSenior Trader AsiaTel: +852 3757 [email protected]

London New York Hong Kong

Page 78: LME Metals Seminar 2021

The Great Tin Rally of 2021:To the Moon or Back Down to Earth?

Tom Mulqueen, Head of Research, Amalgamated Metal Trading Ltd.

LME Metals Seminar - 11 October 2021

Page 79: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

Important Notice

79

This presentation has been prepared by Tom Mulqueen in conjunction with other colleagues at AmalgamatedMetal Trading Ltd (“AMT”).

The presentation is intended to be for general information purposes only. Any views expressed do notconstitute any form of investment research, research recommendation, financial promotion or investmentadvice, nor should they be regarded as such. Further, they are not intended to promote or encourage anyparticular investment strategy or activity. All investment business undertaken by AMT is strictly on an‘execution only’ basis; AMT does not give investment advice.

The opinions expressed in this presentation are solely those of the presenter and not necessarily those ofAMT. AMT does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the information provided herein.

AMT is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK

2

Page 80: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

Agenda

80

• Has a Tin Price Boom Been Long Overdue?

• Key Drivers For the Coming Months?

• Are Record Tin Prices Sustainable Long-Term?

Page 81: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

Record Prices and Backwardation in 2021

81

Demand

LME 3M Tin

Data: LME, Bloomberg

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

Jan

20

Apr 2

0

Jul 2

0

Oct

20

Jan

21

Apr 2

1

Jul 2

1

Oct

21

Cash-3M Spread Backwardation (US$)

-$1,000

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

Sep20

Oct20

Nov20

Dec20

Jan21

Feb21

Mar21

Apr21

May21

Jun21

Jul21

Aug21

Sep21

+190% from pandemic low

+83% in 2021

Intraday high of $6,500

Page 82: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,00020

05

2010

2015

2020

Tin Copper

82

LME 3M Tin LME 3M Copper

Data: LME, Bloomberg

Macro-Influence Illustrated in Copper Alignment

Page 83: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

What’s Tamed The Tin Bull Narrative Since 2011?

83 Source: USGS, AMT Estimates, ITA

Solder47%

Chemicals17%

Tinplate12%

Lead-Acid Batteries

7%

Brasses & Bronzes

5%

Other8%

Refined Tin Use By Application, 2020e

Tonnes

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

China Indonesia South America

Myanmar Africa Other

Tin Mine Supply Trends*kt

2. Solder Use Economisation1. Myanmar Filled Supply Gap

Page 84: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

Agenda

84

• Has a Tin Price Boom Been Long Overdue?

• Key Drivers For the Coming Months?

• Are Record Tin Prices Sustainable Long-Term?

Page 85: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

55

60

65

70

75

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Indonesia Tin Export Indicators

MOT exports Customs 12-Month Rolling MOT

Ex-China Supply On The Recovery Path

85 Source: Indonesia MOT, BPS, ITC

Monthly (Kt) 12-Month Rolling (Kt)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1

2

3

4

5

Jan

19

Apr 1

9

Jul 1

9

Oct

19

Jan

20

Apr 2

0

Jul 2

0

Oct

20

Jan

21

Apr 2

1

Jul 2

1

Customs 12-Month Rolling

Monthly (Kt)

Malaysia Tin Exports

12-Month Rolling (Kt)

MSC operating with 80% workforce as of September 2021

Page 86: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

Demand: Near Term Post-Pandemic Pressures

86

China Winter Energy Curbs

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

Jan

20

Apr 2

0

Jul 2

0

Oct

20

Jan

21

Apr 2

1

Jul 2

1

Oct

21

Fading WFH Demand Boost

High Tin Prices

Semiconductor Shortages (And Other Supply Chain Issues)

Fading Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus?

Page 87: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

Scarce Inventory: Limited Capacity To Absorb Shocks

87

Tin Exchange Stocks (kt)

Source: LME, SHFE, Bloomberg

-1kt

1kt

3kt

5kt

7kt

9kt

11kt

13kt

15kt20

15

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

LME SHFE

Means Inability to Run Big Deficits and Scarcity Pricing Tendencies

Page 88: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

Agenda

88

• Has a Tin Price Boom Been Long Overdue?

• Key Drivers For the Coming Months?

• Are Record Tin Prices Sustainable Long-Term?

Page 89: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

Long-Term Outlook For Demand Is Bright

89

Fading Solder Economisation Headwinds

Decarbonisation

Electronics Proliferation

Pent Up Demand After Supply Chain Issues

Page 90: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

New Supply Needs Time and Stable High Prices

90

Recycling

Investors Wary of the Next Black Swan

Time and Price Stability Needed

Fairphone

Artisanal Mining Industrial Mines

Uis, Afritin

Page 91: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

Conclusions

91

1. Tin’s vulnerability to acute shortages exposed by the pandemic.

2. Scarcity conditions ongoing, but may ease amid a post-pandemic normalisation.

3. Electronics proliferation and decarbonisation to underpin long-term demand.

4. Return to pre-pandemic pricing unlikely as new supply needs price incentive.

Price Forecast: Extreme short-term volatility to persist. $25-30k by end-2022. Trending upwards from this level long-term.

Page 92: LME Metals Seminar 2021

An AMC Group Company

Thank You - Follow Us For Metal Insights & Events!

92

Experts in Metal Derivatives Trading For Over 100 Years

Custom Solutions for Physical Hedgers, Funds and Financial Institutions of All Sizes Globally

Page 93: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Tom [email protected]+44 (0)20 3960 5907

93

Page 94: LME Metals Seminar 2021

94

POLL

Which metal carries the most upside potential for the year ahead?

1.Aluminium2.Copper3.Lead4.Nickel5.Tin6.Zinc

Polls sponsored by:

Page 95: LME Metals Seminar 2021

95

POLL 3 RESULTS

Polls sponsored by:

Page 96: LME Metals Seminar 2021

96

POLL

What do you see as the most influential factor for the current metals cycle?

1. Chinese government policy2. Chinese demand3. US government policy4. OECD demand5. Supply chain constraints6. Other

Polls sponsored by:

Page 97: LME Metals Seminar 2021

97

POLL 4 RESULTS

Polls sponsored by:

Page 98: LME Metals Seminar 2021

98

POLL

If you are here in the room today, where have you come from? And if you are watching online, where are you watching?

1. Europe2. North America3. South America4. Asia5. Africa6. Australasia

Polls sponsored by:

Page 99: LME Metals Seminar 2021

99

POLL 5 RESULTS

Polls sponsored by:

Page 100: LME Metals Seminar 2021

Instructions for changing the title slide image:• Enter Slide Master View• Go to the title slide and right-click the image. Choose Change Picture.• Choose the image you want and press the Insert button.• Right-click the image and choose Format Picture.• There are four icons at the top of the Format Shape pane. Click the 4th one, called Picture.• Open up Crop (the fourth section down). In Crop Position, change the width to 25.4cm and change Left to 0.• Finally, in the Picture Tools Format tab (at the top of the window), click the arrow at the bottom of the Crop

button. From the dropdown menu, choose Fill and then click any area that’s not on the slide to finish.

SETTING THE GLOBAL STANDARD

LME Metals Seminar 2021Thank you for attending!

Save the date for 2022: Monday 24 October 2022


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