16
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas LNG in 2015 and MT perspectives Geoffroy Hureau – Secretary General - CEDIGAZ European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
LNG in 2015 and MT perspectives Geoffroy Hureau – Secretary General - CEDIGAZ
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
THE LNG MARKET IN 2015 (Preliminary estimates)
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
LNG Demand grew 2% in 2015 in a soft market
Around 241 Mt
Fastest growth in 4 years
Supply growth mainly in the
Pacific basin
Demand declined in Asia
Prices collapsed and
converged further
LNG returned to Europe
Demand growth from new
importers
Growth of intra-regional trade
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Regional demand evolution (2013-2015)
Annual change in LNG demand (mmt)
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Decline in major Asian importing countries Growth mainly in MENA countries, new importers (Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan) and Europe + Brazil, Thailand and Taiwan
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Change in growth dynamics? Annual change in LNG demand (mmtpa)
Asian growth had been weakening since 2011
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Europe : Net imports up 14.1% (+4.6 mmtpa) Re-exports down 43% (-2.7 mmtpa)
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Disruptions and declining outputs limited supply growth
Project Country Startup Capacity (mmtpa)
QCLNG Train 1 Australia January 4.3 QCLNG Train 2 Australia July 4.3 Donggi-Senoro Indonesia August 2 Gladstone LNG Train 1 Australia October 3.9 Total 14.5
New liquefaction plants in 2015 Other important facts Ramp-up of PNG LGN Yemen LNG iddle since April Continued production declines of exports from Algeria, Indonesia, T&T
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Change in trade patterns
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Qatar
Nigeria
T&T
+1,8 Mt
-3.6 Mt
+0,6 Mt
MENA:+2 Mt
+0,77 Mt
+0.55 Mt
-0,44 Mt
-0.68 Mt
+0.53 Mt
-0.38 Mt
+0.64 Mt
Source: Cedigaz
Growth of intra-regional trade: Asia +10% Europe +50% Latam + 13% MENA +70%
FID’s limited to US projects (50% = expansions of already FIDed projects) + small FLNG (Cameroon) Limited contractual activity (down 38%)
FIDs in 2015
Corpus Christi LNG 9 mmtpa USA
Freeport LNG 4 mmtpa USA Expansion
Sabine Pass 4.5 mmtpa USA Expansion
Cameroon FLNG 1.2 mmtpa Cameroon FLNG
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
MT OUTLOOK
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Liquefaction capacity to grow by 40% to 2020 (125 mmtpa of projects under-construction)
2015
2020
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Demand : downgraded perspectives with a few bright spots
• Weather + structural factors • Peak in Japan, South Korea • Slowdown in China
ASIA China Official targets for gas demand 2020 revised down from 400 bcm/y to 360 Bcm/y (2014) – CNPC scenarios: 260-340 bcm/y in 2020 Competition from coal, renewables + pipeline gas from
Turkmenistan & Myanmar « New normal », pricing issues…
Japan South Korea Taiwan
Nuclear restart (Japan) + new plants (SK), renewables with FIT, energy efficiency, coal (SK, Taiwan, Japan?) LNG demand has probably peaked
Others Growth in « emerging markets » Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Pakistan, the Philippines (2016)… & low prices could boost demand (India)
EUROPE Decline of domestic production + limited growth perspectives from traditional suppliers except Russia + low prices some growth potential
ROW Growth potential in MENA (Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Kuwait, Dubai), but Zohr discovery changes perspectives in Egypt Latam: Chile, Uruguay, Colombia (2016) Other: Ghana (2016)
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Conclusions (2016-2020) “Always in motion is the future...” Yoda
Supply/demand: – market looks well/over-supplied to 2020 and beyond – but low-prices could boost demand, especially in emerging
and new importers in the MENA, Asia and LATAM Prices:
– Spot prices to remain under pressure – LT (oil based) prices should remain low until at least 2017 – Profitability of US contracts will be challenged
Projects: – Challenging times for large projects but some small FLNG
development still possible (ex. Cameroun FLNG)
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
Thank you for your attention
www.cedigaz.org
European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January
1 & 4 Avenue de Bois-Préau 92852 Rueil-Malmaison Cedex France www.cedigaz.org
About CEDIGAZ CEDIGAZ is an international association dedicated to natural gas information and has more than 90 members in 40 countries. CEDIGAZ data has been the industry's reference since its foundation in 1961.
CEDIGAZ
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas
