logilogi EnergyEnergy

logi Energy - Larry Ortega CIO/CEOlogi Energy - Larry Ortega CIO/CEO

Thoughts on Oil Thoughts on Oil

The Thinking Process - December 2009The Thinking Process - December 2009

Peak Oil AnalysisPeak Oil Analysis

212 655-4467

larry@logipeakoil.com

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Analysis Approach - Strategic Steps Analysis Approach - Strategic Steps

Oil Price Analysis

Oil Price Direction

Strategies

Positions

Position Hedging

Portfolio Hedging

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price Analysis - The Bases of DirectionOil Price Analysis - The Bases of Direction

Current Global Production Global Export Modeling EIA Data Analysis Detailed Futures Pricing Analysis Oil Price - Market Effects Elliott Wave - Fibonacci Analysis Technical Chart Analysis Weather Analysis Industry Insights E&P as well as Transportation Operations

5 Person Technical Analysis Team

Insights from all 15 Team Members

Oil Prices:Where are we in

the Oscillation Cycle?

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Export Model 2005 On - Peak Oil AnalysesOil Export Model 2005 On - Peak Oil Analyses

Supply and Demand Cross in 2032 “Best Case” (Upper Chart)

Oil Supplied by Exports Expected to Drop at roughly 1 MMbpd per year (Lower Chart)

Within 2 years, it will drop below World Demand at the Currently Depressed Usage Rates

Within 5 years, there will be Fuel Rationing in the US, Europe and Japan

Source: Multiple sources compiled by Samuel Foucher and Jeffrey Brown

Exports SHOULD meet Needs

for Next 2 Years

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: EIA Data Seasonal EffectsOil Price: EIA Data Seasonal Effects

Crude Oil and Gasoline beginning Fall/Winter Build at Extreme Highs Inventory only to get worse (Upper Graphs)

Heating Oil Winter Drawdown Starting at 99th %tile. Warm Winter could spell even Higher Inventory

El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected.

Crude Oil and Gasoline Reserves Expected to Grow if There is Lack of Use

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Market Effects - USO, Oil Comm ETFOil Price: Market Effects - USO, Oil Comm ETF

Downtrend

Slowly Crumbling from Oct High - Biased by Trading Strategy of this ETF

Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Weakening

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Market Effects - UNG, Nat Gas Comm ETFOil Price: Market Effects - UNG, Nat Gas Comm ETF

Seasonal Drop from Oct High - Winter Cold Snap causing bounce back, also Biased by Trading Strategy of this ETF

Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Lack of Strength

Still Downtrend

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Market Effects - SPY, S&P 500 ETFOil Price: Market Effects - SPY, S&P 500 ETF

Santa Claus Rally Driving into ascending triangle

Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator showing Uncertainty and Chaikan Money Flow shows Growing Strength

Clear Uptrend - But,Hit a Limit by New Years?

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Market Effects - UUP, US Dollar ETFOil Price: Market Effects - UUP, US Dollar ETF

Dollar Spikeback - Not Strongly Correlated with Oil or Gas Price, but having an effect - More Correlated to S&P and Gold

Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Growing Strength

Clear Uptrend

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Market Effects - GLD, Gold ETFOil Price: Market Effects - GLD, Gold ETF

Market Forces Spiking Gold Down - Not Strongly Correlated with Oil or Gas Price - More Anti-Correlated to Dollar

Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Decreasing Strength

STRONG Reversal

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Market Effects - DIG, Oil and Gas Stock ETFOil Price: Market Effects - DIG, Oil and Gas Stock ETF

Oil and Gas Stocks Breaking through Bottom of Upward Channel - Bounce back points to lower prices

Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow going strongly negative

Down Spike Imminent?

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Futures Pricing - Crack Spreads - BrokenOil Price: Futures Pricing - Crack Spreads - Broken

Gasoline and 3:2:1 Crack Spreads ‘broke down’ in late August with excess storage

Crack Spreads hitting Resistance

Crack Spreads this low means Refinery Margins are thin and trying to rebound with weather and Christmas Driving

Crack Spread Leading Indicator of Prices

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Elliott Wave - MonthlyOil Price: Elliott Wave - Monthly

Tracks Fibonacci Based Elliott Wave Responses Caused by Behavioral Market Responses

Monthly Wave Analysis Expects Price to Drop below Dec08 Low Expects Succeeding Up Price Move to go up to $300 to $400 per

barrel Elliott Wave Theorists - DO NOT BELIEVE in Peak Oil Predicted Dow 10,000 S&P 1100 in March 2009 during Low Elliott Wave most accurate at describing turn 1 to 2 wks after

Elliott Wave Predicted $120 or more Oil at High and $45 or less Oil at Low

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Technical AnalysisOil Price: Technical Analysis

Oil Price Action Just Below Short Term Support Line

2002 - 2007 Long Term Support - Resistance

2008 - 2009 Short Term Support - Resistance

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Weather EffectsOil Price: Weather Effects

El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected

El Nino (temp >1deg) was expected to peak at +1.25 deg, now modeled to +1.75 deg

Temperatures MUCH Warmer

El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected

Winter Expected to be warmer through March

HO Reserves Expected to Grow with Lack of Use

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price: Industry InsightsOil Price: Industry Insights

DOT: Airline Passenger Seat Miles Down -9.3% over Last 2 Years

Trucking Firms reporting -5.2% in Oct09 from Oct08. This was truck Tonnage’s lowest decrement since Nov 2008; Sep 09 was -7.3% from Sep 08.

American Association of Railroads reports Rail Tonnage down -13.7% compared to ‘08 and -18.2% since ‘07

Dow Jones Transportation Average - Triple Top, Third Top Not as High as Second.

No Uptick in Transportation Expected Overage in Supplies not NeededSupplies Will Continue to Build

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

Oil Price - Direction Bias next 6 MonthsOil Price - Direction Bias next 6 Months

Current Global Production: Down Global Export Modeling: Neutral EIA Data Analysis: Down Detailed Futures Pricing Analysis: Neutral Oil Price - Market Effects : Down Elliott Wave - Fibonacci Analysis: Down Technical Chart Analysis: Possibly Down Weather Analysis: Down Industry Insights E&P as well as Transportation Operations: Down

Price Seems to be in the Middle

Direction Bias Pointing Down - Market Headed Down

Oil Prices:Where are we in

the Oscillation Cycle?

Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund

logilogi EnergyEnergy

ContactContact

Larry Ortega

Chief Investment Officer

logi Energy

212 655-4467

larry@logipeakoil.com

This is not an offer to sell any fund or securities. Before you invest in markets, please discuss your decisions with your financial advisor.