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Please see analyst certification (Reg. AC) and other important disclosures on slides 61-67 of this presentation.
Emerging Trends in Games-‐as-‐a-‐Service
Atul Bagga Senior Research Analyst,
ThinkEquity
2
London Liverpool Boston
New York Chicago Minneapolis
San Francisco Doha
Bangalore Mumbai
New Delhi
Geneva
Singapore
Global Banking & Distribu2on Capabili2es
Worldwide reach and capabilities of the Panmure Gordon Group • 231 people located in 8 offices in the US and Europe • 45 investment bankers • 34 research analysts covering over 450 companies • Over 50 brokerage professionals making markets in over 500 stocks • 20 private client and asset management professionals, representing $600 million in assets under advisement • 135 affiliated professionals working at QInvest in the Middle East • 165 affiliated professionals working for Ambit in India and Singapore
Panmure Gordon Group office locations Panmure associations through QInvest (QInvest is a 46% shareholder in Panmure Gordon & Co.) Panmure associations through Ambit Capital (QInvest is a 25% shareholder in Ambit)
PANMURE GORDON & CO INTEGRITY IN INVESTMENT BANKING SINCE 1876
Quaker Securities A Panmure Gordon Company
ThinkEquity LLC A Panmure Gordon Company
Agenda • Games-‐as-‐a-‐Service
– Lines blurring between platforms; Tablets, Set-‐top boxes – Innovation by startups
• Virtual Goods – Perfect Price Discrimination – Enhance Community/Curb Piracy – Higher quality of earning (a) Predictability, (b) Lifetime Value
• Social Games – Vertical Games – Monetization (a) Conversion, (b) Advertising – Platforms dedicated for games
• Mobile Games – Rise of persistent games – Mobile an extension of other platforms – Dominated by a few?
Agenda • Games-‐as-‐a-‐Service
– Lines blurring between platforms; Tablets, Set-‐top boxes – Innovation by startups
• Virtual Goods – Perfect Price Discrimination – Enhance Community/Curb Piracy – Higher quality of earning (a) Predictability, (b) Lifetime Value
• Social Games – Vertical Games – Monetization (a) Conversion, (b) Advertising – Platforms dedicated for games
• Mobile Games – Rise of persistent games – Mobile an extension of other platforms – Dominated by a few?
5
Top Companies By Revenue CAGR (2008-‐2010)
6
Top Companies By Revenue CAGR (2008-‐2010)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0% 20% 40% 60%
EBIT Margin
Reve
nue
CAG
R (2
008-
2010
)
Gree Inc.DeNA Co. Ltd.Zoo Entertainment Inc.Gamevil Inc.Perfect World Co. Ltd.mixi Inc.NHN Corp.NetDragon Websoft Inc.Tencent Holdings Ltd.Neowiz Games Corp.NCsoft Corp.Netease.com Inc. ADSChangyou.com Ltd.Kingsoft Corp. Ltd.Gameloft S.A.
Source: FactSet
7
Enterprise Value/Sales MulEple U.S. Video Game Companies Shares
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09
ATVIERTSTTWOTHQI
Source: FactSet
8
Emergence of MulE-‐Channel Games-‐as-‐a-‐Service
FreeFree--toto--PlayPlay
Pay to PlayPay to Play: Upfront Purchase; Subscription
Virtual Goods
AdsPremium Content
Subscription
Others – App Install,
Incentive Marketing
PC Gaming
Console Gaming
Mobile Gaming
Online GamingSocial
Gaming
Multi-Channel Games-As-A-Service
Source: ThinkEquity LLC
9
Total Video Game Market: WW Market Size Es2mate ($ Million)
Source: ThinkEquity LLC estimates
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Mobile Games Social GamesOnline - Free-to-PlayOnline - SubscriptionPCConsole
10
Total Video Game Market: WW Market Size Es2mate ($ Million)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E
Rest of WorldU.S.South KoreaJapanEuropeChina
Source: ThinkEquity Estimates
Agenda • Games-‐as-‐a-‐Service
– Lines blurring between platforms; Tablets, Set-‐top boxes – Innovation by startups
• Virtual Goods – Perfect Price Discrimination – Enhance Community/Curb Piracy – Higher quality of earning (a) Predictability, (b) Lifetime Value
• Social Games – Vertical Games – Monetization (a) Conversion, (b) Advertising – Platforms dedicated for games
• Mobile Games – Rise of persistent games – Mobile an extension of other platforms – Dominated by a few?
12
Price DiscriminaEon
Sources: Unless otherwise noted, images on this and the following slides are courtesy of the respective companies’ Websites.
13
Price DiscriminaEon
Source: Caroline Scott; http://www.explorecrete.com/gallery/album19/donkey http://www.smokymountainparkarabians.com/
14
Price DiscriminaEon
15
Tradi2onal Models Represented Lost Economic Value
Source: ThinkEquity LLC.
§ Traditional gaming models didn’t capitalize on the full spectrum of consumer demand § Game satisfaction and status
were gained by beating levels with skill, not by personalization and purchased status symbols
§ Consumers who were willing to spend more on games weren’t able to, outside of peripherals and merchandise
§ Consumer surplus represented lost economic value for publishers
Supply
Demand
Pric
e
Quantity
All Customers Pay One Price
Some Customers Willing to Pay Higher Prices
Consumer Surplus = Lost Revenue
$50
$
16
Limited Edi2ons and Map Packs Captured More Revenue
(1) Pricing is approximate. (2) Source: Microsoft.
§ “Limited” and “Collectors” Edition games made headway in price discrimination, capturing additional revenue
§ While this price discrimination resulted in higher revenue, there were still relatively few options available for hardcore gamers
§ Further, these options came at a higher cost for publishers: § Halo 3 “Legendary Edition” box included a
large, physical plastic helmet § Map pack content has high production cost
§ Yet the virtual model was proven: Map packs were only available digitally on XBOX Live, but 25% of players purchased them(2)
§ Map packs had PR hype equal to that of the original Halo 3 release
Supply
Demand
Pric
e Quantity
Halo 3: Standard Pricing(1)
Hardcore gamers could spend incrementally more, if desired
Yet Still, Lost Revenue
$60
Halo 3: “Limited Edition” Price(1)
$75
Halo 3: Map Pack Priced at $15
$90
$
17
Virtual Goods Enable Perfect Price Discrimina2on
Supply
Demand Pr
ice
Quantity
§ While virtual map packs and Limited Edition physical media enable partial price discrimination, virtual goods enable perfect price discrimination for social games and MMOs
§ Some “hardcore casual” gamers willing to spend $10k+/month on virtual goods
§ There is no “price” for the game
§ In complex virtual economies, virtual goods (e.g. a $100k space station in Entropia Universe) can generate significant revenue for their owners, representing more of an asset than an expense § Justifies high end purchases
$23.99
With the true cost of virtual goods close to zero, there is effectively no “supply” curve – goods are readily supplied at all price points
5 Fortune Points
$0.99
One family spent $35,000 on virtual goods in Outspark games
$35,000
$4.99
200 Fortune Points
$39.99
$
Source: ThinkEquity LLC
18
Source: http://www.dealbreaker.com/images/entries/Pistol%20Pirate%20Bust.jpg
http://socialjusticenow.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/world-connect-people-community-international.jpg
19
Build Community
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mill
ion
World of Warcraft- Global
Subscribers
TLBB -RegisteredAccounts
HappyAcquarium - MAU
Farmville - MAU
Source: Company Reports, DeveloperAnalytics.com, ThinkEquity LLC
20
Source: Acclaim
Big spenders
Paying Users
Free Users
Mone2za2on line
$1
$15
ARPU
$100+
Everyone pays Everyone pays
1 X
10 X
PAY
Ads Sponsors
21
Longevity & SEckiness: Avg Chinese Gamer ARPPU
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
AR
PU
($/Y
ear)
Source: IDC, ThinkEquity LLC
22
Game Spend As Percentage Of Per-‐Capita Income
Games Spend as % of Per-Capita Income
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E
U.S.
China
Games Spend as % of Per-Capita Income (ex. Food)
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0.40%
0.45%
0.50%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: ThinkEquity LLC
23
Players Willing To Spend More…
0.08%
0.09%
0.10%
0.11%
0.12%
0.13%
0.14%
Games as % of Per Capita Income
U.S.KoreaChina
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Korea Game Development Institute, EuroMonitor International, ThinkEquity LLC
24
…And The Vendors Are More Profitable
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
SNDA GA PWRD NTES CYOU ERTS ATVI THQI TTWO
Operating Margin
ROE
Source: Company Reports, ThinkEquity LLC
25
Legend of Mir 2
• 2D MMORPG, Martial Arts, Adventure • Developed by Wemade, operated by Shanda • Launched in China in 2001 under subscription based model • Converted to free-‐to-‐play model in 2005 • PCU ~400-‐500K
26
Mir 2 Revenue’s Growth AUer Model Change
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
RM
B M
illio
n
Source: Company Reports, ThinkEquity LLC
27
…And ARPPU Growth AUer IniEal Kneejerk
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
AR
PU
(RM
B/Q
tr)
Source: Company Reports, ThinkEquity LLC Estimated ARPPU
28
ZT Online
• 2D MMORPG, Martial Arts, Adventure • Developed and Published by Giant Online • Launched in 2007 • Free-‐to-‐play, pay for virtual goods model • PCU: 1 million+
29
70%+ Higher ARPPU Compared to WOW
020406080
100120140160180
AR
PU ($
/Yea
r)
World of Warcraft ZT Online Source: Company Reports, ThinkEquity LLC
30
Top Players Pay 20x of WOW ARPU
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Top 5% Players 15% Players 80% Players WOW
Source: Company Reports, ThinkEquity LLC
31
ARPPU DistribuEon Curve of ZT Online
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Users ('000)
AR
Pu
($/M
onth
)
Source: Company Reports, ThinkEquity LLC
32
Examples of MoneEzaEon
• Game Design (System for marriage, breeding, parenting, balance between males/females)
• Special In-‐game Events (Valentine’s day, New Year’s day, Sports)
• In-‐game Promotions • Treasure Chest
– Special Bonus for Opening Most Chests
• Chat & Response
33
Virtual Goods: WW Market Size Es2mate ($ Million)
Source: ThinkEquity LLC estimates
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Mobile
Social Network
Online (off-SocialNetworks)
34
Virtual Goods: WW Market Size Es2mate ($ Million)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E
Rest of WorldU.S.South KoreaJapanEuropeChina
Source: ThinkEquity Estimates
Agenda • Games-‐as-‐a-‐Service
– Lines blurring between platforms; Tablets, Set-‐top boxes – Innovation by startups
• Virtual Goods – Perfect Price Discrimination – Enhance Community/Curb Piracy – Higher quality of earning (a) Predictability, (b) Lifetime Value
• Social Games – Vertical Games – Monetization (a) Conversion, (b) Advertising – Platforms dedicated for games
• Mobile Games – Rise of persistent games – Mobile an extension of other platforms – Dominated by a few?
36
Mid-‐session vs. Persistent Games
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
AppStore Facebook -Now
Facebook-May, 09
PersistentMid-session
Source: ThinkEquity Estimates
37
Console Games: U.S. Market Size
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$ m
illio
n
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Y/Y
Gro
wth
Source: NPD
38
Average Game Play Hours Per Week On Console
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Nielson
39
Games Going Social – What We Have Seen
• Facebook opening up a new market similar to Wii
• 55% of Facebook users play games on Facebook and Games account for ~40% of page views of Facebook
• Facebook games not just games but also a mean of communication, a mean to express oneself in virtual environment
40
Gaming Versus Expression
0
50
100
150
200
250
$ Bi
llion
Video Game Luxury GoodsSource: Bain & Company, PWC
Trends in Social Games • Focus on Monetization
– Conversion – Advertising
• Platform maturing – IPs Matter
• Social Games outside Facebook – Using Facebook social graph – New platforms
• Mobile another wave of disruption – Location: convergence of physical and virtual world
41
Focus on Mone2za2on
42
ARPU/MAU Per Capita GDP MAU/GDP (bps)($ MAU) (US $, 000)
Mixi 0.80 39.7 24 DeNA 4.51 39.7 136 Gree 2.39 39.7 72 Giant 1.27 3.8 402 ChangYou 1.38 3.8 436 US MMO 6.67 46.0 174 US Social Games 0.15-1.00 46.0 4-26Source: Company Reports, ThinkEquity Estimates
Focus on Mone2za2on
43
Source: ThinkEquity Estimates
Focus on Mone2za2on
44
Source: ThinkEquity Estimates
Focus on Mone2za2on: Adver2sing
45
AdvertisingVirtual Goods -
Indirect PaymentVirtual Goods - Direct Payment
Playdom 5-10% 15% 75-80%Kabam NA 10% 90%Rekoo 10% NA 90%Serious Business 10% 10% 80%
Source: ThinkEquity LLC interviews with the CEOs of respective companies
Focus on Mone2za2on: Adver2sing
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
WebMD The Knot Yahoo! DemandMedia
SocialGames
ARPU/DAU
46
Source: comScore, Company Reports, ThinkEquity Estimates
47
Social Games Outside Facebook
• Social feature no longer a proprietary of SNS • Users want to stay connected with friends – to brag, to
compete, to have a fun-‐experience together • Monetization of DeNA vs. Mixi • First iteration of social games outside Facebook already
there • Next iteration of social games with deeper integration/
social games from ground up – Imagine a social shooter, action game – trophy save your real-‐life
friend in virtual environment
As PlaUorm Matures; IPs Become More Important
48
2009 2006Game Publisher Game Publisher
1 Battlefield 1943 Electronic Arts Geometry Wars Bizzare Creations2 Castle Crashers The Behemoth Gauntlet Midway Games3 Trials HD Microsoft Games Smash TV Midway Games4 Hasbro Family Game Night Electronic Arts Bejeweled II Oberon5 Shadow Complex Microsoft Games Zuma Oberon6 Marvel vs. Capcom 2 Capcom Bankshot Billiards PixelStrom7 Magic: The Gathering Wizards Of the Coast Outpost Kaloki NinjaBee8 UNO Gameloft Mutant Storm Reloaded Microsoft Games9 Worms Microsoft Games Joust Midway Games
10 Peggle PopCap Games Wik: Fable of Souls Reflexive Entertainment
Source: IGN, Majornelson.com
As PlaUorm Matures; IPs Become More Important
49
Rank Game Publisher Price1 The Sims Electronic Arts $6.992 The Oregon Trail Gameloft $4.993 Need for Speed: Undercover Electronic Arts $4.994 Madden NFL 10 Electronic Arts $4.995 Tiger Woods PGA Tour Electronic Arts $0.996 Assassin's Creed: Altair Chronicles Gameloft $4.997 Flight Control Firemint $0.998 Cooking Mama Taito $6.999 Civilization Revolution Take-Two $6.99
10 Wheel of Fortune Sony $0.99
Source: Apple
50
Social Gaming: WW Market Size Es2mate ($ Million)
Source: ThinkEquity LLC estimates
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
AdvertisingVirtual Goods
51
Social Gaming: WW Market Size Es2mate ($ Million)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
ROWChinaEuropeU.S.Japan
Source: ThinkEquity Estimates
Agenda • Games-‐as-‐a-‐Service
– Lines blurring between platforms; Tablets, Set-‐top boxes – Innovation by startups
• Virtual Goods – Perfect Price Discrimination – Enhance Community/Curb Piracy – Higher quality of earning (a) Predictability, (b) Lifetime Value
• Social Games – Vertical Games – Monetization (a) Conversion, (b) Advertising – Platforms dedicated for games
• Mobile Games – Rise of persistent games – Mobile an extension of other platforms – Dominated by a few?
Mobile: Next Wave of Disrup2on
53
Source: International Telecommunication Union, NPD
Smartphone Market Poten2al
54
Source: ThinkEquity Estimates
050100150200250300350400450
U.S. Europe
MobileSubscribersSmartphoneUsers
WW Smartphone Installed Base
55
Source: Ericcson
0500100015002000250030003500400045005000
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
Skipping The PC Web?
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Population InternetUsers
BroadbandUsers
MobileSubscribers
Number of Subscribers in India (Million)
56
Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, InternetWorldStats.com
No Contract, Android = $150
Source: www.flipkart.com
58
WW Mobile Games Market Size Es2mate ($ Million)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Social GamesDownloadable Games
Source: ThinkEquity Estimates
59
WW Social-‐Mobile Games Market Size Es2mate ($ Million)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Source: ThinkEquity Estimates
Agenda • Games-‐as-‐a-‐Service
– Lines blurring between platforms; Tablets, Set-‐top boxes – Innovation by startups
• Virtual Goods – Perfect Price Discrimination – Enhance Community/Curb Piracy – Higher quality of earning (a) Predictability, (b) Lifetime Value
• Social Games – Vertical Games – Monetization (a) Conversion, (b) Advertising – Platforms dedicated for games
• Mobile Games – Rise of persistent games – Mobile an extension of other platforms – Dominated by a few?
61
QUESTIONS?
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62
Risks & Disclosures COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT:
Company Exchange Symbol Price Rating
Activision Blizzard, Inc. NASDAQ ATVI $11.54 Buy
Akamai Technologies, Inc. NASDAQ AKAM $34.14 Hold
Apple Inc. NASDAQ AAPL $347.23 Buy
Changyou.com Limited NASDAQ CYOU $43.48 Buy
comScore, Inc. NASDAQ SCOR $28.40 Buy
Electronic Arts Inc. NASDAQ ERTS $22.61 Buy
Giant Interactive Group, Inc. NYSE GA $9.37 Hold
Google, Inc. NASDAQ GOOG $535.45 Buy
NetEase.com, Inc. NASDAQ NTES $45.64 Buy
63
Risks & Disclosures COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT:
Company Exchange Symbol Price Rating
NetEase.com, Inc. NASDAQ NTES $45.64 Buy
Perfect World Co., Ltd. NASDAQ PWRD $24.99 Hold
salesforce.com, Inc. NYSE CRM $134.38 Hold
Shanda Games NASDAQ GAME $7.15 Buy
Shanda Interactive Entertainment Limited NASDAQ SNDA $49.40 Hold
Take-Two Interactive Software NASDAQ TTWO $16.04 Buy
THQ, Inc. NASDAQ THQI $4.52 Hold
Risks & Disclosures Analyst Certification I, Atul Bagga, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this report has/have received compensation based on various factors, including the firm's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. ThinkEquity LLC makes a market in Akamai Technologies, Inc., Apple Inc., Activision Blizzard, Inc., Changyou.com Limited, Electronic Arts Inc., Giant Interactive Group, Inc., Google, Inc., NetEase.com, Inc., Perfect World Co., Ltd., salesforce.com, Inc., Take-‐Two Interactive Software, THQ, Inc., Shanda Interactive Entertainment Limited, Shanda Games, and comScore, Inc. securities; and/or associated persons may sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis.
Risks & Disclosures Rating Definitions
Effective October 7, 2009, ThinkEquity LLC moved from a four-‐tier Buy/Accumulate/Source of Funds/Sell rating system to a three-‐tier Buy/Hold/Sell system. The new ratings appear in our Distribution of Ratings, Firmwide chart. To request historical information, including previously published reports or statistical information, please call: 866-‐288-‐8206, or write to: Director of Research, ThinkEquity LLC, 600 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, California, 94111. Buy: ThinkEquity expects the stock to generate positive risk-‐adjusted returns of more than 10% over the next 12 months. ThinkEquity recommends initiating or increasing exposure to the stock. Hold: ThinkEquity expects the stock to generate risk-‐adjusted returns of +/-‐10% over the next 12 months. ThinkEquity believes the stock is fairly valued. Sell: ThinkEquity expects the stock to generate negative risk-‐adjusted returns of more than 10% during the next 12 months. ThinkEquity recommends decreasing exposure to the stock.
65
Risks & Disclosures
Distribution of Ratings, Firmwide
ThinkEquity LLC
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [B] 153 66.20 22 14.38
HOLD [H] 76 32.90 2 2.63
SELL [S] 2 0.90 0 0.00
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Risks & Disclosures This report does not purport to be a complete statement of all material facts related to any company, industry, or security mentioned. The information provided, while not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The opinions expressed reflect our judgment at this time and are subject to change without notice and may or may not be updated. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. This notice shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state in which said offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state. This research report was originally prepared and distributed to institutional clients of ThinkEquity LLC.
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Risks & Disclosures Recipients who are not market professionals or institutional clients of ThinkEquity LLC should seek the advice of their personal financial advisors before making any investment decisions based on this report. Stocks mentioned in this report are not covered by ThinkEquity LLC unless otherwise mentioned. Additional information on the securities mentioned is available on request. In the event that this is a compendium report (covers more than six ThinkEquity LLC-‐covered subject companies), ThinkEquity LLC may choose to provide specific disclosures for the subject companies by reference. To request more information regarding these disclosures, please call: 866-‐288-‐8206, or write to: Director of Research, ThinkEquity LLC, 600 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, California, 94111. Stocks mentioned in this report are not covered by ThinkEquity LLC unless otherwise mentioned. Member of FINRA and SIPC. Copyright 2011 ThinkEquity LLC, A Panmure Gordon Company
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