Logistics Engineering Supply Chain
Shale Development:The Evolving
Transportation Impacts
Prepared for:
June 6, 2014
The Rail Summit
2
Boutique consulting firm with team members throughout North America Established in 2001
Over 90 clients and 250 engagements
Significant shale development practice since 2010
Practice Areas Logistics
Engineering
Supply Chain
Consulting services Strategy & optimization
Assessments & best practice benchmarking
Logistics assets & infrastructure development
Supply Chain design & operations
Hazmat training, auditing & risk assessment
M&A/investments/private equity
Industry verticals Energy
Bulk commodities
Manufactured goods
Financial services
About PLG Consulting
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Partial Client List
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What is behind the North American energy revolution?
Resources• N.A. shale plays
• Western Canadian oil sands
Technologies examples• Hydraulic fracturing
• Horizontal drilling
• Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD)
• Evolving exploration and production technologies
• Tremendous productivity gains drives cost reductions
• Logistics infrastructure “re-plumbing” in
progress
• Product abundance… overabundance
• Imports displaced… exports grow
• Recoverable resources grow…sustainability
• Globally competitive power and material cost structure
• Manufacturing industries grow/return to North America
Recoverable Resources &
Enabling Technologies
Continuous Improvement
Energy Revolution
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Unconventional Energy Resources
North America Shale Western Canada Oil Sands
Source: CAPP, About Oil Sands, June 2013
New Energy: The Game Changer in North America
New production technology developed by small
entities allowing numerous players
“Mass production” methodologies developed
Multi-billion dollar capital investments required by
few players
Production process will harvest oil over long term
Source: EIA, May 2014
5
Convergence of hydraulic fracturing and
horizontal drilling in last five years
Fracking first used in 1947
Revolutionary advances since 2009
Yields 3-10x the initial production rate of conventional
wells
US uniquely positioned for the techniques
Private mineral rights
Drilling intensity (wells per acre)
90% of rig fleet equipped for horizontal drilling
Location of shale plays
Rapid ROI for E&P companies
Typical well earns back capital cost in 1-2 years
Depending on play productivity, “break even” price of
~$65/bbl (WTI) for oil and $3.50/Mbtu for gas
Liquid plays providing highest returns currently and a
majority of drilling rigs are focused on liquids
Oil / Gas rig count split at ~80% / 20% from ~20% / 80%
five years ago
Shale Technology Introduction
GAS OIL THERMAL
Source: Baker Hughes
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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More well bores per well pad
Directional bores to multiple shale layers
Reduced well spacing per acreage – increases well density
Zipper wells – stimulating two wells in tandem
Optimal lateral lengths
Lateral lengths had tripled since the start of horizontal drilling,
but this trend is being challenged by new practices
Zone fracturing
Micro-fracture testing at multiple points vs. one average test
that enables highest extractions of each zone
Shorter, fatter fractures
Bigger holes in casing combined with additional sand and
water use
Productivity gains continue!
Time required for drilling 15,000+ ft. well cut in half in last two years
(9 days vs. 18 days)
Eagle Ford example – new well oil production per rig has increased
by 150% over past 3 years
Lowers break even costs drive profitability improvements
New Fracking Techniques Drive Increased Production At Lower Costs
Source: Marathon, February 2014
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report, May 2014
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Oil (bitumen) recovery uses two main methods
- mining and drilling (in situ)
20% of the Oil Sands reserves are close enough to the
surface to be mined using shovels and trucks (3% of oil
sands land area)
80% of the Oil Sands reserves will be recovered in situ by
drilling wells (97% of oil sands land area)
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is
most popular method
Two parallel wells are drilled
Upper well has high pressure steam continuously injected
Lower well recovers softened bitumen
Diluent is added to the bitumen (15~30%)
Diluent is very light oil or “condensate”
Enables the product to flow through pipelines and be
loaded into rail cars
Bitumen extraction has become profitable as
extraction technologies improved
Economical at ~ $ 45 - $ 65/bbl
Oil Sands Production Processes
Mining
Source: www.epmag.com
Drilling - SAGD
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Russia
Siberian reserves are said to be 80X of Bakken
Total, Shell, Exxon, Statoil all investing
Second place soon?
China
Reserves in remote, mountainous locations
Technology transfer challenges
Only one oil company involved – stifles innovation
Argentina
Concerns with governmental regulation, price controls
Struggling with high cost proppants
Poland
Reserves not productive so far – Exxon, Marathon gave
up
UK
Some gas reserves
Government support, but intense environmental
opposition
Is Shale Energy A North American Phenomenon?
Source: EIA, June 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Shale Oil Resources (Billion bbls)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Shale Gas Resources (Tcf)
Technically Recoverable Resources, Source: EIA, June 2013
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Shale Supply Chain and Downstream Impacts
Feedstock (Ethane)
Byproduct (Condensate)
Home Heating (Propane)
Other Fuels
Other Fuels
Gasoline
Gas
NGLs
Crude
Proppants
OCTG
Chemicals
Water
Cement
Generation
Process Feedstocks
All Manufacturing
Steel
Fertilizer (Ammonia)
Methanol
Chemicals
Petroleum Products
Petro-chemicals
Inputs Wellhead Direct
Output Thermal Fuels Raw Materials
Downstream Products
RAIL INDUSTRY DEMAND2010 onward 2016 onward
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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U.S. Frac Sand Industry Trends
Sand33%
Rail - Freight, FSC and Eqp Lease
42%
Destination Transload &
Trucking25%
Total Delivered Cost per Ton ~ $122
Source: PLG analysis using BNSF public pricing –does not include fixed assets at origin or
destination, December 2013
Logistics costs drive ~ 67% of total
delivered sand cost
Rapid growth and maturation of both industries
(hydraulic fracturing and sand production) over the past
5 years
Sand supply base growing and consolidating at
the same time
Mines continue to open; supply base is consolidating
Large fluctuations in price of sand based on
supply/demand balance
Significant production growth beyond WI in IL and MO
due to new demand for 100 mesh sand
Unit train shipping is the game-changing logistics
development – spurring investment in larger load-out
sand transload facilities
“Benchmark” high-efficiency unit train example – Illinois
to South Texas
Single-line haul (one rail carrier), private railcars achieving two round
trips per month, origin sand facility has direct rail load-out and
destination trucking is less than 100 miles
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Natural gas now supplying 27% of U.S.
Electricity Generation
US coal electricity generation share capture has
dropped 10% from 2006
Adversely affecting coal industry,
railroad coal loadings
2013 coal production hit 20 year low (less than
1B s/t)
Export opportunities diminishing due to weak
demand in Europe, declining demand and
competition in Asia
Despite recent increases in prices,
natural gas share capture expected to
maintain or grow
EPA proposed mandate that power plants cut
CO2 emissions by 30% by 2030 from 2005 levels
Scheduled coal unit retirements; 55GW
through 2020
Natural Gas Displacement of Coal for Thermal Generation
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Source: Devon Energy Investor Presentation, June 2014
U.S. Natural Gas Cumulative Coal Retirement Demand Forecast
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2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Source: American Chemistry Council, February 2014
>$100B of Chemical Expansion Announced
Phase I - Gas & Power-intensive Industries: Steel, Fertilizer, Methanol
Phase II - Downstream Products: Resins, Chemicals
Phase III – “Manufacturing”: Raw material cost driven
Phase I – Industries using gas as primary feedstock have global cost competitiveness; new US factories being built
Phase II – Downstream products require significant processing facilities investment and lead time
Phase III – US material cost advantage will enable traditional manufacturing to return to the North America as about 65% of the cost of manufactured product is material cost
Shale Gas Phased Impact To NA Industrial Renaissance
SHALE GAS
BOOM
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Shale Gas History and Future Demand
Gas production has increased over past five years with a significantly lower gas rig count
1,000 rigs at peak down to ~300 rigs
Drilling productivity continues to increase production per well
and lower costs
And the Liquids (Crude, NGL) wells produce dry natural gas as a
by-product
Abundant US gas recoverable reserves
Low cost reserves in accessible locations near population
Marcellus gas production is the “eighth largest country” already
US will become a net gas exporter by 2020
US gas demand will grow due to:
Coal-fired generation plant converting to gas
More industrial use – steel, fertilizer, methanol
Mexican export via pipeline and LNG export overseas
Increasing use as transportation fuel
US gas cost competitiveness is sustainable
Supply will overwhelm demand as prices approach $5
US government and capital constraints will likely limit LNG
export to protect US from world gas market price Source: RBN Energy, January 2014
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Rig Count with Natural Gas Production
Gas Oil U.S. Natural Gas Production
rigs Bcf/d
Source: Baker Hughes, EIA, PLG Analysis, June 2014
14
The “Re-Plumbing” of Hydrocarbons in North America
Shift from coastal to mid-continent
supply points necessitated “re-
plumbing” the flow of carbon-based
energy in North America
Pipeline reversals, repurposing, new starts
Crude by rail comes of age – born in the Bakken
Waterborne imports being displaced as
shale oil and oil sands production
comes online
Infrastructure built rapidly to help
facilitate new energy movements
Source: Enbridge, April 2014
Oil Sands
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Permian
Marcellus
Source: EIA, PLG Analysis (Google Earth), April 2014
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Repurposing and retirement of some
existing pipelines
New natural gas production has localized the supply
of natural gas for certain areas, therefore,
decreasing the need for some existing natural gas
pipelines with some converted to crude oil
New natural gas pipelines are being built
to transport natural gas out of Marcellus
REX, Phillips 66, Transcanada, Kinder Morgan,
Dominion Transmission, Spectra Energy, Boardwalk
Pipeline Partners, and Williams all involved latest
build-out of Marcellus gas pipeline capacity
New projects will provide more than 9 Bcf/d of new
take-away capacity – most slated for completion in
2015 – 2017 (RBN Energy, May 2014)
Existing gas pipelines are being made bi-directional
to allow flow towards Gulf Coast (not away),
particularly for LNG export projects
Historic reversals of import/export trade
flows
Northeast US-Canadian Maritimes
New Patterns in Natural Gas Supply & Demand
Source: Enbridge, April 2014
Natural Gas Movements
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) Pipelines
from Utica/Marcellus
Mariner East to Marcus Hook, PA for export
Mariner West exports to Sarnia, ON
ATEX to Mt. Belvieu, TX
Proposed Utica Marcellus Texas Pipeline to Mt.
Belvieu, Texas (conversion of natural gas
pipeline for most of the route)
New NGL export projects
Facility expansions and new construction
projects in Ferndale, WA and Port of Longview,
WA
Further expansions proposed by Enterprise
and Targa in their Gulf Coast export facilities
Phillips 66, Energy Transfer,
Williams/Boardwalk and Occidental have all
proposed export facilities out of the Gulf Coast
Natural Gas Liquids Pipelines and Export
Source: MarkWest, PLG analysis, March 2014
Sarnia, ON
Mt Belvieu, TX
Marcus Hook, PA
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Source: Devon Energy Investor Presentation, June 2014
NGLs Demand - LPG Exports
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Basic Facts About Crude Oil – Grades and Qualities
Heavy/sour
Higher sulfur content, yield for asphalt & diesel
Sources include
Western Canada (largest single play in North
America)
Venezuela
Mexico, Alaska North Slope
Middle East (light/sour)
Significant investments made ($48B since 2005)
at select refineries to install coker units that will
allow processing of heavy/sour
Heavy/sour crude has a natural home in Midwest
and US Gulf Coast (~2.8 MM bpd demand at
USGC)
Light/sweet
Brent, WTI, and US shale play crudes (Bakken,
Permian, Niobrara, Eagle Ford) are light/sweet
US is close to saturation point on light/sweet
crude at mid-continent and USGC refining areas Source: RBN Energy
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Light/Sweet Crude Logistics
Sources: EIA, PLG analysis (Google Earth)
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour
Pacific Northwest Refiners
California Refiners
2,525kbpd
PADD VDemand
Midwest Refiners
3,375kbpd
PADD II Demand
East Coast Refiners
PADD I Demand1,075kbpd
LA Gulf Coast Refiners
TX Gulf Coast Refiners
PADD III Demand
8,150kbpd
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Permian
ANS
Brent
Brent
Rail
Pipeline
Marine
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Sources: EIA, PLG analysis (Google Earth)
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour
Pacific Northwest Refiners
California Refiners
2,525kbpd
PADD VDemand
Midwest Refiners
3,375kbpdPADD II Demand
LA Gulf Coast Refiners
TX Gulf Coast Refiners
PADD III Demand
8,150kbpd
Oil SandsHeavy/Sour Crude Logistics
Rail
Pipeline
Marine
Mexican Maya
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Refined Products Market Dynamics
U.S. shifted to net exporter of refined
products
Mitigated the impact of declining domestic demand
International demand increasing, especially for diesel
Exports of diesel to Latin America and Europe
Gasoline exports to Latin America
Outlet for increasing domestic crude oil which
cannot be exported without being processed
Source: Valero Investor Presentation, March 2014Source: Valero Investor Presentation, March 2014
Source: Valero Investor Presentation, March 2014
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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All oil sands pipelines are under
intense scrutiny and subject to court
challenges
None of these developments will
proceed at a pace that will match
anticipated production levels
Canadian Oil Producers adopting CBR
as a risk mitigation measure to ensure
access to markets in North America
and offshore
Main driver of crude by rail out of
Western Canada will be delta between
pipeline capacity and crude oil
production
Expect Keystone XL to be built but
with more delays
Western Canada Crude Oil Pipelines
Likely Built at Some Point
Trans Mountain Express
(Kinder Morgan)
Alberta Clipper (Enbridge)
Keystone XL (TransCanada)
Unlikely
Northern Gateway
(Enbridge)
Energy East
(TransCanada)
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Large pipeline build to Texas Gulf Coast
1.45 MMb/d added in 2012-2013 and 1.92
MMb/d to be added in 2014-2015
Large pipeline projects from Cushing including
Keystone Gulf Extension and Seaway pipelines
Other pipeline projects from Permian, Eagle
Ford, and Midwest
Bakken pipeline export capacity
Projected to increase to 715 kbpd in 2014 from
only 280 kbpd in 2010 (NDPA, Jan. ’14)
Pipeline build-out from Guernsey, WY
230 kbpd Pony Express pipeline to Cushing
(under construction)
Possibility of twinning Express-Platte pipeline
system through Guernsey to Wood River, IL
US Crude Oil Pipelines
Pipeline Capacity to Texas Gulf Coast
Source: RBN Energy, December 2013
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Correlation of Operating Rig Count with Sand and Crude Carloads Handled
STCC 14413 (sand) and 13111 (petroleum) Source: US Rail Desktop, Baker Hughes, Surface Transportation Board, PLG Analysis, May 2014
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2007 Avg. 2008 Avg. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Op
era
tin
g O
nsh
ore
Rig
s
Ca
rlo
ad
s H
an
dle
d
Operating On Shore Rigs
All Sand Carloads
Petroleum Carloads
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Shale Related Rail Traffic Still Small Relative to Coal Volumes
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,0002
00
8
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Sand Crude Coal
Ca
rlo
ad
s
Quarterly Data
Sand
Crude
Coal
Railcars Handled: Sand, Crude, & Coal
STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal) Source: US Rail Desktop, Surface Transportation Board, PLG Analysis, March 2014
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Coal, Crude & Sand Trends: Carloads and Revenue
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Bil
lio
ns
Mil
lio
ns
Carloads Revenue
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Bil
lio
ns
Th
ou
san
ds
Sand Crude Revenue
STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal) Source: US Rail Desktop
Total Coal Carloads and Revenue Combined Sand and Crude Carloads and Revenue
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200Mbbl/d ND Crude Production and Rail Transport
ND Production Crude by Rail
The Importance of Price Differentials to Crude by Rail
Differentials made rail attractive
Bakken and WTI differential as high as ~$20/bbl vs. Brent in
2012
CBR enables producers to sell at trading hubs with higher
benchmarks
Market response: E&P, midstream players willing
to rapidly deploy significant capital to enable
access and capitalize on spreads
Multi-modal logistics hubs in shale plays and at destination
markets (i.e. Cushing, OK, St. James, LA, Pt. Arthur, TX,
Albany, NY, Bakersfield, CA)
Lease and purchase of railcar fleets
Refineries install unit train receiving capability
Particularly coastal refineries previously captive to waterborne
imports (i.e. Philadelphia, PA, St. John, NB, Washington state)
Pipeline capacity underutilized
Rail captures 73% Bakken takeaway by April 2013
Differentials are both an incentive – and a risk –
for crude by rail
3Q 2013 a cautionary note
Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority, January 2014, PLG Analysis
Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority, PLG Analysis, May 2014
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
27
Source: AAR, North Dakota Pipeline Association, Surface Transportation Board, PLG Analysis, May 2014
Crude by Rail Statistics
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Petroleum & Petroleum Products (carloads/quarter) Crude Originated (carloads/quarter) Williston Crude by Rail (bbls/day)
Carloads/Quarter Bbls/Day
WTI-Brent equilibrium
3Q3012
WTI-Brent equilibrium
3Q3013
*
*2014-Q2 quarterly rate through May 24
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Shale Development and Crude By Rail: Current Market Dynamics
Adverse 3Q 2013 market forces have reversed
WTI-Brent spread now ~$5.50/bbl
CBR rebound driven by Bakken to coasts
Weak long-term outlook for Bakken CBR to USGC
Key driver: LLS now aligned with WTI, not Brent
“Next wave” of CBR development:
Canadian Oil Sands
Terminal investments in Alberta and PADD II and III
Over 1,300 kbbl/day planned AB loading capacity through 2015
NOT like the Bakken – more challenges
Complexities of heavy/sour product handling (steaming, diluent,
unit train challenges)
Fewer destinations
Existing – and growing – mode competition to logical markets
(pipelines and barge)
Tank car market reorienting to coiled/insulated
car types (~2/3 of CBR fleet order backlog)
Source: EIA, May 2014
Source: RBN Energy, May 2014
Brent vs. WTI Spread ($/bbl)
Crude Oil Differentials ($/bbl)
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Crude Rail Terminals Through 2017
85 load terminals
Largest and most efficient
in Bakken
69 unload terminals
Majority on the Coasts and
Mississippi River
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Bakken and Oil Sands Crude Oil Takeaway Forecast
Source: www.CBRforecast.com
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Base Case Takeaway (kbpd)
Pipeline
Crude by Rail
Local Refining
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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High Profile Accidents Changing Crude by Rail
Rail industry has a strong safety record, but optics of
CBR accidents are overwhelming any positive statistics
Industry, government, media focus on tank car design
Railroad operating practices, maintenance equally
important
Railroad operating rule changes on hazmat train handling
Increased scrutiny, insurance requirements
Short line and regional railroads in particular
May have consequences in CBR freight rates
Increased product testing, documentation and
traceability (FRA directive)
Oil chemistry varies by well/pad
Concerns with extremely low flash and boiling points
Bakken terminals at varying levels of compliance
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
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Bakken Crude Higher Volatility
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
33
LNG Export Opportunity
Political/policy battle between domestic industrial users and producers
Only FERC approved LNG export terminal is Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG in Sabine, LA
Proposed US LNG Export Terminals to FERC (in Bcfd):
There are 13 other US potential export terminals along with 3 Canadian proposed sites and 10 other Canadian potential sites
Supply Sources
Oil PricesDestination
Markets
Capital
Location Bcfd Location Bcfd
Freeport, TX 1.8 Lavaca Bay, TX 1.38
Corpus Christi, TX 2.1 Elba Island, GA 0.35
Coos Bay, OR 0.9 Sabine Pass, LA 1.40
Lake Charles, LA 2.2 Lake Charles, LA 1.07
Hackberry, LA 1.7 Plaquemines Parish, LA 1.07
Cove Point, MD 0.82 Sabine Pass, TX 2.1
Astoria, OR 1.25 Pascagoula, MS 1.5
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Source: FERC, May 2014
Source: Waterborne Energy from FERC presentation, April 2014
Data in $US/MMbtu
34
Panama Canal Expansion Has been delayed and now expected at full
capacity by 2016
Current Panamax vessel size excludes all but 10% of LNG vessels from using the canal
After expansion, 80% of LNG fleet will be able to use the canal with vessel capacities up to 100 MMcf
Benefits for N.A. LNG Exports Using the expanded Panama Canal will be a
natural fit for the large number of proposed Gulf Coast export facilities wanting to reach the growing Asian LNG market
Trip time cut from 64 days to 44 days, greatly improving the competitive position of LNG exports by reducing transportation cost
Panama Canal Expansion and North American Exports of LNG
Source: Enbridge, April 2014
Source: Enbridge, April 2014
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
35
U.S. energy officials considering easing federal
laws that prohibit exports of most crude
Rising production of light oil / condensate that is not well-
matched to current U.S. refinery capacity
U.S. currently classifies condensate produced at well crude oil
and there is a possibility it be reclassified as condensate which
would allow for exports
Implications if export ban is lifted
Condensate would most likely be exported to Asia as a
petrochemical feedstock
Brent (international crude benchmark) and LLS prices would
most likely converge as they are both light crude prices on
water
“Landlocked” crude prices (ie WTI and Bakken) would most
likely rise higher closer to international prices
Export of Canadian crude via the U.S. would be simpler without
the complication of keeping U.S. diluent separate from
Canadian crude
Build out of new pipelines and terminals to export the crude
Likely a decrease in U.S. refined products export volumes and
worse economics for U.S. refineries
Possibility of Lifting Crude Oil Export Ban
Source: RBN Energy, May 2014
Shale Development: The Evolving Transportation Impacts
Logistics Engineering Supply Chain
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Thank You !
For follow up questions and information, please contact:
Graham Brisben, CEO+1 (708) 386-0700 / [email protected]