This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-S’s prior written consent.
2
Content
Executive Summary
Sector Overview
Road
Rail
Air Cargo
Shipping
EXIM Logistics
Warehousing
3PL
IT in Supply Chain and Logistics
Company Profiles – Listed and Un-listed
This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-S’s prior written consent.
Executive Summary
3
A decade of opportunities lies ahead…
Logistics and supply chain is a close to US$ XXXbn business (US$ XXXbn in 2010-11), amounting to XXX% of India’s nominal GDP. The references stating the sector is XXX% of India’s GDP are incorrect. The sector will grow in line with the GDP to reach a size of around US$ XXXbn by 2014-15, and US$ XXXbn by 2019-20. The sector will need, directly or indirectly, investment of around US$ XXXbn per annum in the 2011-20 period. We believe this indicates scope of greater PE investment in this sector. Amongst modes of transport, road is the biggest segment, with revenues of around US$ 56bn in 2010-11. While commodity trucking is not very attractive, profitable niches exist – like express, containerised cargo, and less than truck load. Private sector has struggled in rail, given difficult operating environment. However, given the strong growth potential of container transport, the sector is attractive over the long term. Air cargo and shipping maybe less attractive given the inability of Indian companies to compete with MNC majors here. Amongst business sectors, EXIM logistics, with a size of US$ XXXbn, and XXX% growth, the segment offers is the most attractive segment in logistics. Agri logistics has fast emerged as an area with attractive business economics. With the government intent of increasing private sector participation in agri value chain, this segment will attract new players. We find Indian manufacturing is ready for outsourcing logistics requirements, and demand for contract/3PL kind of logistics services should increase strongly. Leading logistics services are keenly targeting such business.
This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-S’s prior written consent.
Sector Overview
4
Sector Size
A bottom up calculation of various segments within logistics indicates that the sector had a size of around US$ XXXbn for 2010-11. Road transport at US$ XXX bn forms the biggest individual chunk. EXIM services is a large segment as well.
Exhibit 1: Size of Indian logistics and supply chain sector
Sector Growth Potential
2010-11 2014-15P 2019-20P
The sector will grow at a rate around XXX% over the next few years. Applying XXX% growth in 2015, and XXX% for the next 5 years, we get a size of US$ XXXbn for 2015 and US$ XXXbn for 2020.
This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-S’s prior written consent.
Sector Overview
5
PE Investments in Logistics in 2011
Date Fund Company (%) ($ mn)
Jan-11 India Equity
Partners
Company 1 XX XX
Feb-11 Infrastructure India
Plc
Company 2 XX XX
Mar-11 Infrastructure India
Holdings Fund LLC
Company 3 XX XX
Mar-11 Mayfield India and
Nexus Venture
Partners
Company 4 XX XX
Apr-11 Warburg Pincus Company 5 XX XX
Apr-11 Fidelity Growth
Partners
Company 6 XX XX
May-11 Mumbai Angels Company 7 XX XX
May-11 India Agro Business
Fund (IABF), IFC
consortium
Company 8 XX XX
Jun-11 IL&FS PE Company 9 XX XX
Jul-11 Rajasthan VC Fund Company 10 XX XX
Jul-11 Standard
Exhibitered PE
Company 11 XX XX
There were 11 Private Equity investments in logistics space in 2011. The disclosed investment amount was US$ XXX mn, with average disclosed deal size of US$ XXX mn. The biggest disclosed deal size was US$ XXX mn. The logistics funding was XXX% of funding done in services sector and XXX% of total funding done in 2011. Five deals happened in growth stage companies and the rest were equally divided between the PIPE, early, and late Stages. Most of the deals happened in the first half of the year.
Source: Four-S Research
Company Buyer Seller Invested
since
Original
Investmet
$mn
Retur
ns(X)
Company 1 Infra. India Guggenheim 2007 XX XX
Company 2
Warburg Pincus IL&FS NA XX XX
Company 3
Warburg Pincus Aureos Capital NA XX XX
Source: Four-S Research
2011 saw three successful exits equally divided between strategic sale and through the open market.
This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-S’s prior written consent.
Road Transport
6
The dominant form of transportation business in India
Unit: Billion ton kilometres (BTKM) Source: Planning Commission, Four-S Research
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2011-12P
Freight movement by road in India In terms of absolute numbers, the Planning Commission projected that freight movement by road would reach a size of about XXX billion ton-kilometres (BTKM) by 2011–12. This is assuming an average GDP growth rate of 8% between 2007–08 and 2011–12. The Planning Commission has used a multiplier of XX between the GDP and freight movement growth rates.
2011-12 2019-20
Express General
Size of Road Transport Sector
Unit: $bn, Source: Four-S Research, Industry
We expect road sector revenues to cross $XXXbn by 2020. We have projected the express segment to grow at XXX%, and the general cargo to grow at XXX%.
This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-S’s prior written consent.
Road Transport
7
Growth Drivers The higher growth rate is for express is based on industry feedback, and the fact that the sectors express caters to, like consumer goods, computers, auto, pharmaceuticals are all high growth segments of the economy. Increasing penetration of modern trade, and changing supply chain practices among users is expected to drive higher growth for express compared to overall transport sector. In the Box: Case study of Express Transport Operator
Competitive scenario The organized sector is a miniscule portion of the road transport sector. None of the large companies operating including XXX, XXX, XXX etc account for even 1% of sector revenues. Road transportation is a low entry barrier-business. There is a vast population of owner-driven trucks in India–drivers who have turned truckers.
Investment Potential Value added road business has high potential to attract investments In the Box: Case study of investments in road transport companies
•Revenue Mix •Growth •Margins •Investment Details
This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-S’s prior written consent.
Key Companies in the sector
8
Top 20 Listed Logistics Companies
Key Performance Metrics and Ratios
Company Market Cap Revenue PAT Gross Fixed
Assets
Total
Assets
EBITDA
Margin
(%)
PAT
Margin
(%)
Asset
turnover
(x)
ROCE (%) ROE (%)
Company 1 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX
Company 2 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX
.... …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. …. ….
Company 19 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX
Company 20 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX
Units: INR mn, data for latest financial year, Source: Ace Equity Analyser, Four-S Research
Company Home Country Employees Countries
Company 1 Germany XXX XXX
Company 2 USA XXX XXX
Company 3 USA XXX XXX
Company 4 Germany XXX XXX
Company 5 Switzerland XXX XXX
Company 6 Japan XXX XXX
Company 7 China XXX XXX
Company 8 France XXX XXX
Company 9 USA XXX XXX
Company 10 Netherlands XXX XXX
Top 10 Global Logistics Companies
Source: Four-S Research
Key Un-listed Companies in India
About the company Leadership Business Lines Investment, M&A Activity Financials Growth Plans
This information is confidential and was prepared by Four-S solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Four-S’s prior written consent.
Companies Covered
9
Source: Four-S Research
Listed Un-Listes Global
CONCOR Safexpress Deutsche Post DHL
Shipping Corp. of India
DARCL UPS Supply Chain
Allcargo Logistics Future Supply Chain Solutions
Fedex Corp
Great Eastern Shipping
Radhakrishna Foodland Pvt Ltd
DB Shenker
Transport Corporation of India
Sohan Lal Commodity Management Pvt. Ltd
Kunhe+Nagel
Essar Shipping Flywheel Logistics Nippon Express
Blue Dart Express Total Logistics (India) Pvt. Ltd
Geodis
Great Offshore JICS Logistics CEVA
……and more
Thanks! The report presents current industry trends and snapshot of all key segments in Logistics & Supply Chain Industry along with profiles of interesting listed and unlisted players in the space. The report is useful for Board members & Senior Management of Logistics companies, PE Fund Managers and other investors. To book your copy, please write to Devendra Deole at [email protected] or call +91-22-4215 3659
About Four-S Services Four-S Services provides customised business and financial research to organizations across the globe. The company also provides Investor Relations consulting to corporates based on in-depth sectoral and company research. The company has an impressive client profile and a team of analysts covering the key sectors including Finance & Banking, IT & Telecom, Retail, Media & Entertainment, Pharmaceuticals, Infrastructure and Manufacturing amongst others. For further information on the company please visit www.four-s.com Disclaimer The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation, warranty, guarantee or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of any information, projections or opinions contained in this document or upon which any such projections or opinions have been based. Four-S Services Pvt. Ltd. will not accept any liability whatsoever, with respect to the use of this document or its contents. This document has been distributed for information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. This document shall not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. The company may from time to time solicit from, or perform consulting or other services for, any company mentioned in this document.