LOICZ II

The next Generation of Global Coastal Change Science

Land-Ocean interactions across multiple interfaces

2003 2012

A core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and the

International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change

G. Flöser, LOICZ European Node,

GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany

What is / was LOICZ?

• LOICZ: Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone

• Core Project of IGBP• Phase I 1993-2002 concluded, Springer book

available June ‘05. More than 20 scientific Reports.

• Aim: “to determine … the dynamic nature of interaction between land, ocean and atmosphere and how changes in various components of the Earth system are affecting coastal zones …”.

• key biogeochemical features of global coastal seas

• 2300 scientists in 130 countries• International Project Office in Texel, The

Netherlands (hosted by NIOZ), 2 officers

Structure of International Global Change Research

IGBPDIVERSITAS WCRPIHDP

LOICZ

Earth System Science Partnership

LOICZ wants to initiate, coordinate and summarize coastal research worldwide

GEWEX

BALTEX

The Coastal Zone: Society’s Edge as defined by elevation (+200 to +100 to -100 to –200 m)

A spatial and temporal edge:• high gradients/variability (e.g. climatic) / Biodiversity• major biogeochemical processes• Catchment - Shelf as a unit• > 50% of human population

A resource sustainability edge: • 25 % biological Productivity; • 90 % global Fishery,• Ecosyst. services: ~$17.5 trillion (Global ES ~$33.3 trillion)

< of land surface

Wilson et al in prep.

Coastal Change in the “Anthropocene”

• Climatic & Environmental Change (sea level, ocean currents, climate patterns, CO2, atmospheric deposition and cycles)

• Human pressure & use(multiple effects on quality & quantity of resource, products & amenities, across scales and regions)

ZONE 8 (SE Atlantic Coast, Argentina/Patagonia)

Driver Major CoastalPressure

PresentPressure Status

TrendExpectation

Damming/Diversion

Erosion/Sedimentation Major

Agriculture Eutrophication/Pollution

Medium

Deforestation Erosion/Sedimentation Medium Mining Erosion/Pollution Low

ZONE 7 (Wider La Plata Atlantic Coast, SE Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina)

Driver Major CoastalPressure

PresentPressure Status

TrendExpectation

Urbanization Eutrophication Major Damming/Diversion

Erosion/Sedimentation Major

Industrialization Pollution Medium Agriculture Eutrophication/

PollutionMedium

Deforestation Erosion/Sedimentation Medium Navigation Erosion/Sedimentation Low Fisheries Loss of Biodiversity Low

ZONE 6 (Central Brazilian Atlantic Coast, Guanabara & Sepetiba Bay)

Driver Major CoastalPresssure

PresentPressure Status

TrendExpectation

Urbanization Erosion/Sedimentation Major Industrialization Pollution Medium

Deforestation Erosion/Sedimentation Medium Tourism Erosion/

EutrophicationLow

Fisheries Loss of Biodiversity Low

ZONE 2 (Central Pacific Coast, Ecuador/Peru/N. Chile)

Driver Major CoastalPressure

PresentPressure Status

TrendExpectation

Urbanization Eutrophication Major Damming/Diversion

Erosion/Sedimentation Major

Industrialization Pollution Medium Agriculture Eutrophication/

PollutionMedium

Deforestation Erosion/Sedimentation Medium Aquaculture Eutrophication Low Navigation Erosion/Sedimentation Low

Giving informationin a useful way

The river-coast continuum:

LOICZ Basins 1999-2002:

biogeochemical budgeting and classification of > 200 catchment areas in 7 major studies

COASTAL EROSION/ SEDIMENTATION AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN SOUTH AMERICAOVERVIEW AND QUALITATIVE RANKING OF IMPACTS (from LOICZ R&S No 21, 2002);

Impact scale: 10 = maximum; 9-7 = critical, 6-4 = medium, 3-1 = low, 0 = none.

Coastal issue Local site/ region(contributing riverbasins)

Critical threshold(for systemfunctioning)

Distance to critical threshold(qualitative or quantitative)

Ranking References/ datasource

Erosion/Sedimentation

(coastal geo-morphology)

a. Rivers of NorthPatagonia: Negro,Chubut, Colorado;including estuariesand adjacentbeaches.

b. NE Brazil:Jaguaribe River,Pacoti River, SãoFrancisco River

c. Uruguayan coastof the la PlataRiver estuary

d. Chile: Chañaral,Bio Bio andAconcagua Rivers

a. Several damsaffect river basins.Critical bedload isabout 105 t yr -1.

b. 0.02-0.1 106 t yr-1(5%).

c. Not known

d. Areas of lowsedimentdynamics

a. Critical threshold alreadypassed. Present delivery ofsediments estimated as 70-80%only of the critical load ofmaterial transport for sustainedcoastal stability.

b. Present delivery of sediments isabout 10% to 50% of the criticalload. Erosion of adjacentbeaches already evident.

c. Dune and beach loss observed.

d. Sedimentation occurring inestuaries.

a. 8

b. 9

c. 6

d. 3-5

a. Violante et al. (2001);Isla (1997); Lopez andMarcomini (1998);Cionchi et al. (1993);Pasquine et al. (1997)

b. Jimenez et al. (1999);Freire (1989); Valentini(1996); Bezerra (1996)

c. ECOPLATA (1999)

d. Hajek et al. (1990)

Provide improved critical load/threshold information

What did we learn: sources of nutrient production versus coastal loads

• People per catchment and runoff are reasonable proxies for coastal system metabolism

• DIN and DIP load are ~8% and 2-4% of the production

• DIN, DIP load may have tripled over the past 3 decades and look like ~5 times the pristine load

TOTAL ESTIMATED PRODUCTION,comparison with loading

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

YEAR

NIT

RO

GE

N (

10

9 mo

les

/yr)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

PH

OS

PH

OR

US

(1

09 m

ole

s/y

r)

Meybeck loadingLOICZ loading

NITROGEN

PHOSPHORUS

• Load still seems relatively low; but there is potential of continued increase with growing population and land use.

Smith et al. 2003, BioScience 53

12

3

45

Global typology (½° database) showing estimated regions of highly “disturbed”

coastal systems

typology filter: population density >60/km2 and cropland use >10%

• Most of the world coastline still has low yield – top blue (68% of

coastal cells).

• High yield is locally restricted– top red, yellow (1 -

2% of coastal cells).

• Most of the load comes from regions with low to intermediate yield

• Load will grow with population and land use change.

DEFINITIONS:

•“Yield” is material delivery per unit of catchment (mass km-2 yr-1).

•“Load” is total delivery ( mass km-2 yr-1 x km2 = mass yr-1).

Applying Typology approaches for the “big picture”

here: estimates for DIP yield and load to the world ocean

after Smith et al 2003

The New LOICZ

• Connection to the International Human Dimensions Programme, another Core Project of ESSP

• Science plan is finished and available on the web: www.loicz.org

• Example: Cooperative Research Center (Australia) brings together decision makers – tourism – economy – nature conservation

Cooperative Research Center, Australia:

Bringing together stakeholders interested in the Great Barrier Reef

• Association of Marine Park Tourism Operators• Australian Institute of Marine Science• Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority• Great Barrier Reef Research Foundation• James Cook University• Queensland Department of Primary

Industries and Fisheries• Queensland Seafood Industry Association

Inc.• SUNFISH Queensland Inc.

Theme 1:Theme 2:

Implications of global change and land and sea use on coastal development

Theme 3:

Anthropogenic influences on the river basin and coastal zone interactions

Scaling &

Modeling

Variability

Acquisi

tion

Dissem

ination

LOICZ 2003 - 2012

Vulnerability of coastal systems and hazards to human societies

Theme 4:

Fate and transformation of materials in coastal and shelf waters

Theme 1: Vulnerability of coastal systems and hazards to human societies (exchange with, e.g., GECHS, GECAFS, GWSP, WCRP) Sea level rise - Hard vs. soft coastal defences Natural hazards and life quality Impacts of global atmospheric / ocean climate change on coastal systems (downscaling) Variability of coastal vulnerability to environmental changes (Estuaries) Adaptation strategies to environmental changes and impact on health safety

Theme 2: Implications of global change and land and sea use on coastal development (exchange with, e.g., Urbanization, Land (LUCC), IDGEC) Coastal urbanisation Changing dynamics (e.g. mangroves, salt marshes, dredging) Changing sea use [sand and gravel mining, windmills, reclamation (including offshore), large scale engineering, oil and gas extraction, aquaculture]

New LOICZ: A process-based rolling synthesis approach

Theme 3: Anthropogenic influences on the river basin and coastal zone interactions (exchange with, e.g., GWSP, IDGEC, Land (LUCC)) Damming Catchment modelling on nutrients and pollution; scenarios Local governance and resource management Land Use and Cover Change and critical thresholds of mass transport

Theme 4: Fate and transformation of materials in coastal and shelf waters (exchange with, e.g., IMBER, SOLAS, GLOBEC) Local burial versus long distant export of matter Use of global (satellite) coastal monitoring data Coastal & Estuarine software (freeware/shareware) Interaction between coastal habitats/ecosystems and C/N/P sources/sinks Refining techniques for coastal biogeochemical budgets including error analysis Trace gasses in the coastal zone Geochemical cycling of Hg in the coastal zone

New LOICZ: A process-based rolling synthesis approach

BALTEX II Objectives:…Gradual extension of BALTEX methodologies to air and water quality studies

Overarching -Theme 5 :

Towards coastal system sustainability by managing land-ocean interactions (exchange with, e.g., IHDP, DIVERSITAS)

Changing economic valuation of coastal ecosystems (also under 2) Criteria of coastal sustainability (resources, ecological) Different governance strategies for coastal zone management and Indicators of management efficiency Contents and tools of adaptive management

New LOICZ: A process-based rolling synthesis approach

The Baltic Sea

• was part of LOICZ in the biogeochemical budgeting procedure (Vistula, Gulf of Finland, Odra projects)

• is part in the SINCOS EU project

Applying the typology to the Baltic Sea Region

River basins covered in global typology dataset

The Odra Project (IOW)www.ikzm-oder.de

• is a regional project of the New LOICZ

• immediately feeds into the themes 2, 3 and 5

• is transboundary• includes stakeholders

on river basin management

• LOICZ wants comparison to other river basins

Thank you!