London Today, London Tomorrow

Challenges and Agendas for the City’s Future

Professor Mark Tewdwr-JonesNewcastle University

The Evolving Urban System• Renewal is a challenge facing cities, regions and nation states

the world over• The long term challenges of a world city vs. national, regional

and local interests, climate change, demographic mix and infrastructure investment

• Effective implementation requires the right combination of planning, governance, competent agencies, delivery vehicles and resources

• The enigmatic city and the survival instinct: how does London carry on within an ambiguous political and institutional structure, where planning does not take the lead?

• Is London a supreme example of a fluid or post political city?: Political certainty and resilience but adaptable with ad hoc responses that are malleable; a model to follow?

• What is London prepared to do to ensure its’ world city ranking and what are the consequences for Londoners and other cities?

Urban containment and planned growth

Population Growth 2006-2026

Migration: London 2001

150,000 foreign net migration into London

•250,000 people move out (suburbs and beyond)

•150,000 people move in

London regarded as economic success

• Produces 18% of national economic output against 12% of population and 15% of workforce

• Specialises in high value business and financial services and also in media, ICT and leisure activities

• Relative decline in 1970s and 1980s but strong recovery from 1993

• By 2001, at highest job levels since early 1970s

New patterns of commuting

Land and resources – water already “over-abstracted” in the South East of England

Flexible planning styles and governance forms: Thames Gateway

• Thames Gateway is one UK’s main areas for population and housing growth stretching from East London along the Thames in Kent and Essex

• At 40 miles long and 20 miles wide it is Europe’s largest renewal project

• Proposed 120,000 homes • 23,000 new homes per year in London at cost of £16

billion• Forecast to provide 200,000 new jobs

Multiple StakeholdersMultiple Stakeholders

Flexible planning styles and governance forms: 2012 Olympics

• Successful bid for 2012 Olympics focused around London’s Lower Lea Valley

• Area of significant deprivation with low rates of economic activity, poor health and a young an ethnically diverse population

• Much of area currently under-developed and under-utilised with low grade industrial activity and lack of amenities for business or community

Challenges remain…• Population expected to grow to over 8 million and

employment forecast to grow by 640,000 by 2016• Increasingly globalised economy and continuing challenge

of outsourcing and international competition; signature architecture

• Changing lifestyle, values and household composition• Increased pressure on public transport infrastructure and

demands outweighing investment• Deep rooted deprivation and social inequalities in certain

areas• Who’s London? Safety and security for residents and

businesses: “7 million Londoners, 1 London”• London’s reliance on the greater region

What form of governance?

• The spirit level test: centralism, regionalism, federalism, localism

• Mixes of governance styles and ownership• Purpose and permeability of governance• Moving away from one style fits all approach• Ongoing translation issues between existing government

structures and new styles• Moveable discretionary frames• Duplication and fatigue in governance structures• Threats of increasing policy turbulence• The boundaries and territorial constraints of policies

What form of planning, if any?• A tale of two plannings• The rigid institutional and boundaried forms of (historic)

planning• New fluid and softer forms of planning, partly set within

boundaried government, partly outside; without constraints • Territorial cohesion vs territorial protection• Developing non-shared visions for the future• Planning still relied upon but reactively to deal with social and

environmental consequences; greenwashing?• Questions of accountability and legitimacy -> maintain role of

boundaried planning• A potential tipping point: quality of life

Some scenarios for the future of the city• Business as usual? Nearing collapse?• A more polarised city, unlike any other part of the UK• Business interests increasingly driving agendas with politicians

reactive• Housing need will create a different housing system• Communities galvanise and protect themselves?• But London’s sphere of influence will continue to create

pressures on the Greater South East+, with or without planning agreement or wider political support

• Will London protect itself?• UK leaves EU; Scotland granted independence• London becomes more differentiated from England with

political calls to attain city state status