WEBINAR

Impact of COVID-19 crisis on inbound air travel to Europe

April 15, 2020

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ForwardKeys has data that captures and reflects the entire traveller journey

Searching

Flight Searches Seat Capacity Total Air Market

Forecast

FutureOffer

Bookings & Tickets

on-the-book

Incident impact

Widespread declines across Europe in Q1

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Arrivals to world regions Jan-Mar 2020*

1 January to 31 March 2020; Year-on-Year variations by region

Arrivals from 1 January to 31 March

2020 vs same period in 2019.

Only considered pax staying

1 to 21 nights at destinations.Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.

AmericasYoY Var: -26.7%

* excluding domestic

Europe is the second most impacted world region in Q1, 2020

EuropeYoY Var: -36.4%

Asia PacificYoY Var: -48.7%

Africa &

Middle EastYoY Var: -29.0%

Total InboundYoY Var: -38.2%

5© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.

Long-haul arrivals decline across all European sub-regions

Central &

Eastern

EuropeYoY Var: -40.7%

Share: 7%

Northern

EuropeYoY Var: -33.9%

Share: 21%

Western

EuropeYoY Var: -39.7%

Share: 32%

Arrivals to European regions Jan-Mar 2020*

1 January to 31 March 2020; Market shares by region and Year-on-Year variations

Arrivals from 1 January to 31 March

2020 vs same period in 2019.

Only considered pax staying

1 to 21 nights at destinations.Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.

* excluding domestic

Southern

EuropeYoY Var: -38.2%

Share: 40%

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Top 10 European markets – Italy with the most declines

YoY % var % Share

United Kingdom -32.3% 15.3%

France -37.3% 13.5%

Spain -34.6% 12.1%

Italy -48.0% 9.7%

Germany -44.8% 9.1%

Turkey -34.9% 8.8%

Netherlands -37.6% 3.7%

Portugal -21.8% 3.6%

Switzerland -35.5% 3.6%

Russia -43.5% 1.9%

Arrivals from 1 January to 31 March

2020 vs same period in 2019.

Only considered pax staying

1 to 21 nights at destinations.Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.

* Only excludes Intereuropean travel

Top 10 European destination countries for long-haul* travellers Q1 2020

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-250.0%

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-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

6 Jan 13 Jan 20 Jan 27 Jan 3 Feb 10 Feb 17 Feb 24 Feb 2 Mar 9 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 30 Mar 6 Apr

Future travel bookings to Europe plummet by 75.9% from January

Bookings made for International travel to Europe by departure region6 January to 12 April, Year on Year variations

Asia Pacific -104.9%

Europe -71.0%

Americas -86.7%

Africa &

Middle East-69.5%

Total Global -80.5%

Bookings made in Q1*

YoY % change

Introduction of travel

restrictions in China

More cancellations

than new bookings

Lombardy COVID-19

outbreak

Booking made from 6 January to 12 April 2020 vs

same period in 2019 for future travel at any time.Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.

*Bookings made from 6 January to 12 April

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The Lombardy outbreak halts new bookings to Italy and Europe

Arrivals from 20 January to 29 February

2020 vs same period on previous year.

Only considered pax staying

1 to 21 nights at destinations.Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.

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Italy Europe Covid19 confirmed cases in Italy

More cancellations than new bookings

First two COVID19 cases in Italy

Bookings made for arrivals to Europe & Italy from worldwide destinations

20 January to 29 February 2020; Year-on-Year variations

9© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

6 Jan 13 Jan 20 Jan 27 Jan 3 Feb 10 Feb 17 Feb 24 Feb 2 Mar 9 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 30 Mar 6 Apr

The whole of Europe shares similar trend

Bookings made for International travel to Europe by arrival region6 January to 12 April, Year on Year variations

Southern Europe -82.9%

Western Europe -79.1%

Northern Europe -78.6%

Central &

Eastern Europe-79.3%

Total Europe -80.5%

Bookings made in Q1*

YoY % change

Introduction of travel

restrictions in China

More cancellations

than new bookings

Lombardy COVID-19

outbreak

Booking made from 6 January to 12 April 2020 vs

same period in 2019 for future travel at any time.Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.

*Bookings made from 6 January to 12 April

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Air capacity continues its downward spiral

Seat Capacity evolution for Worldwide travel from

January 2020 Year-to-Date vs the same period in 2019

Air Capacity for flight dates between 01 Jan – 19 Apr 2020 vs

same period in 2019, for Worldwide travel*, as of 14 Apr 2020.

*(Excluding domestic)

Source:

ForwardKeys &

**The air capacity seats are reported as per the data parameters listed above. They may differ due to the quick changing developments within the aviation sector, including unreported or unfiled seat

numbers by airline operators.**

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2020 2019

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Europe locks its borders

No restrictions

Visa restrictions

Flight suspension

Partial border closure

Complete border closure

Source: IATA Timatic & British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Data as per 14 April 2020.

The current state of travel restrictions in Europe

Outlook

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All top European destinations show similar outlook for the Summer

* Only excludes Intereuropean travel

Bookings confirmed as 12 April 2020 vs same period last year,

for travel in June – August 2020 vs travel in June – August 2019.Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.

YoY % var % Share

Italy -57.5% 14.0%

United Kingdom -54.7% 14.0%

France -54.0% 10.5%

Spain -56.7% 8.4%

Germany -53.5% 6.7%

Russia -42.6% 5.0%

Greece -47.7% 4.2%

Netherlands -52.8% 4.2%

Portugal -50.7% 3.5%

Ireland -42.6% 3.4%

Top 10 European destination countries for long-haul travellers – June, July & August 2020

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Long haul flight bookings to Europe for travel in June, July and August

Bookings made from 1 June 2019 to 31 March 2020 vs same period last

year, for travel in June – August 2020 vs travel in June – August 2019.Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2019-20 2018-19

More cancellations than bookings

The silver lining for Europe - Most bookings for the Summer are made in May- July

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Italians appetite for travel persists despite being in quarantine!

Breakdown of flight searches from Italy performed in March for a departure in…

0%

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Q2 Q3 Q4

2020 2019

Flight searches from 1 to 31 March

2020 vs same period in 2019.

Only considered pax staying

1 to 21 nights at destinations.Source: ForwardKeys Flight Search data.

16© ForwardKeys, 2020. All Rights Reserved.

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olivier.ponti@forwardkeys.com

Olivier PontiVice-President Insights