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Long Term Energy Outlook

Date post: 07-Apr-2018
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    Long Term Energy Outlook Still Bullish

    Joseph R. Dancy, SMU School of LawManager, LSGI Venture Fund LP

    Dallas, Texas

    September 28, 2011

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    Investors Abandon The Stock Market:

    How Bad is It? 45% Say They WillNeverInvest in the Market Again

    Domestic Equity Funds Have Four Years of Outflows

    48% of Americans Expect a Severe Recession orDepression Ahead

    Market Volatility Hits Record Levels

    Market Correlations Hit Record Levels

    Household Stock Ownership Levels Declining

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    The last few years have been the most volatile

    for all of recorded historyAndrew Lo, Professor of FinanceMIT Sloan School of Management

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    Market and Stock Correlations Hit Record Levels

    High Frequency Traders Having a Field Day: 70% of Trading Volume!

    ETFs Used as Trading Vehicles, Focus is Short Term

    Several Flash Crashes in the Last Year

    Stock Selection Not Effective When Correlations This High

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    Europe Over A Barrel:

    High Quality Crude is in Short Supply

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    Brent / WTI Price Spread At Record LevelsCushing Oklahoma Crude

    Oil Stocks - DOE

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    Meanwhile Chinas Demand For Energy

    Continues to Astound

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    But Chinas Growth Has Slowed

    The Question is by How Much?

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    China Will Use More Crude Oil

    than the U.S. Within a Decade

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    Global Excess Crude Oil Production

    Capacity is Declining

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    Global Crude Oil Demand Forecast

    to Continue to Grow

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    U.S. Motorists Will Spend Record Sums forGasoline This Year While U.S. Diesel

    Exports Set Records

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    The Investment Theme:

    The price of crude oil is being driven

    by (1) stagnating global productionand (2) relentless increases indemand from emerging markets

    trends that will be in place for years

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